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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Wednesday, September 14, 2022Should the Braves Be Looking For a New Closer?
RoyalsRetro (AG#1F)
Posted: September 14, 2022 at 01:36 PM | 11 comment(s)
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1. Dolf Lucky Posted: September 14, 2022 at 02:29 PM (#6096088)Unfortunately, (a) relievers are highly variable and (b) relievers are measured only in small samples. That makes it difficult to impossible to say with much confidence that reliever B is better than reliever A. You'll be right until you aren't which could be tomorrow. But sure, when the Braves picked up Iglesias I assumed they were replacing Jansen.
Maybe it's a new nerd thing ... ERA+ of top save guys 2022:
Clase 295 (that's what I'm talking about!)
Hendricks 126 (hmmm)
Jansen 109
Romano 202 (Toronto apparently)
Hader 67
Rogers 88
Bard 228
Diaz 267
Pressly 121
Soto 109
That's a very wide range (with no middle ground (those guys are in the next tier). No guarantee these numbers are precise but
Relievers with 50+ IP by ERA+
200+: 16
150-199: 25
125-149: 23 (note that category is just 25 points wide)
110-124: 17 (that category just 15 wide)
That's 81 all-up suggesting that somewhere around 110 is where you need to be for use in the 7th or later. There are a lot of guys with 25-45 IP in that 110-149 range -- probably mostly guys who came in on the shuttle and got to stick around. Anyway, suggests the "minimum" requirements are around:
#1 RP: 160 ERA+
#2 RP: 130 ERA+
#3 RP: 110 ERA+
With #3 supplemented by lots of good short-term performances (and many bad short-term performances). Those top 3 guys (if healthy) combine for about 180 innings of maybe 140 ERA+ ... for a FA SP that would be, what, at leat $30 M AAV and reliever salaries start to make more sense. A challenge lies in the high chance that at least one of those guys has never done it before and another of those guys is getting old and the third guy is gonna get hurt next year.
Anyway, Jansen's performance over the last 5 years has been somewhere in the solid #3 RP (119 FIP+) to borderline #2 RP (131 ERA+), hasn't consistently pitched at an elite level for some time. Now whether your #1 guy should be your closer is another question (as far as I know generally yes).
Brock Burke of Texas looks interesting with 73 IP in 47 appearance but a 269 ERA+, 2.83 FIP and about 10 K/9 and HR/9 < 1. That looks much more sustainable (well, not the 269 ERA+ but sustainably good). He has mostly come on in the 6th-7th, frequently facing 7-8 batters. He's been used on back-to-back days just once (both 1-inning stints).
I was always amused when teams around that time accidentally got it right by having an "established" closer pitch the ninth, but a more talented guy in their pen being used in the highest leverage situations.
This sounds exactly like Bad Kenley, the one who showed up after his heart surgery and was really the Dodgers' Achilles heel for a few years before last year's turnaround. Bad Kenley still strikes people out (though not like he did at his best), but he does it by living too close to the zone and giving up hits, or wandering around outside the zone and hoping that guys will chase his faded junk.
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