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Thursday, February 24, 2005

Sickels: Anaheim Angels Top 20 Prospects

What, not the “Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim top 20 prospects”?

Kotchman over McPherson. Those two and Aybar rate A-. Jered Weaver would have rated a B+ and been in the top 6, but I’m glad Sickels didn’t include him - that’s just too speculative for me.

Mike Emeigh Posted: February 24, 2005 at 07:42 PM | 53 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. CONservative governMENt Posted: February 24, 2005 at 08:02 PM (#1163805)
Kendry Morales is going to be a bigger bust than Mt. Rushmore.
   2. 1k5v3L Posted: February 24, 2005 at 08:03 PM (#1163807)
Bobby Jenks is still around? Wasn't he released and claimed by CHA?
   3. 1k5v3L Posted: February 24, 2005 at 08:05 PM (#1163812)
There are four busts on Mt. Rushmore.
   4. Shohei Brotani (formerly LA Hombre) Posted: February 24, 2005 at 08:05 PM (#1163813)
He sure was. Impossible to know if Jenks will ever turn into anything, but I'll always take a chance on a 99 mph arm, and it was pretty damn disappointing to know that Josh Paul was protected on the 40-man and Jenks was not.
   5. Los Angeles Waterloo of Black Hawk Posted: February 24, 2005 at 08:06 PM (#1163817)
Kotch over D-Mac is the right choice.

I have a lot of apprehension over some of these guys. The good thing is that it's a deep system; the scary thing is that there are a lot of toolsy guys who haven't yet had the chance prove themselves at advanced levels. Out of Aybar, Callaspo, Kendrick, Wood, and Rodriguez, you'd think one of them will end up making it ... but not one of them is screaming "can't miss" at this point.

The absence of top-notch pitching prospects is somewhat worrisome, but if Ervin Santana can stay healthy ...

Nick Gorneault's absense is conspicuous, but he's getting up in years, so it's not so surprising.
   6. 1k5v3L Posted: February 24, 2005 at 08:06 PM (#1163820)
If Bobby Jenks can make it, there will be hope for Reggie Abercrombie too.
   7. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: February 24, 2005 at 08:09 PM (#1163827)
Jenks was a heck of pitcher for Arkansas in '03. Has Abercrombie ever been good?
   8. CONservative governMENt Posted: February 24, 2005 at 08:09 PM (#1163831)
There are four busts on Mt. Rushmore.

For now. Any news on the movement to add Reagan?
   9. 1k5v3L Posted: February 24, 2005 at 08:13 PM (#1163838)
Abercrombie? He's always been all tools, no results. But at least he's doing really well selling jeans.
   10. Shohei Brotani (formerly LA Hombre) Posted: February 24, 2005 at 08:13 PM (#1163840)
Nick Gorneault's absense is conspicuous, but he's getting up in years, so it's not so surprising.

I wonder if Gorneault's developmental curve is a typical one for college sluggers. The guy goes to school 4 years, then gets started in the minors behind guys younger than him. He's good, but not great, and moves through at a normal pace, except that when he hits AAA, he's "old for a prospect".

Maybe Gorneault would have been better off leaving school early. I have no idea if he attracted any interest after high school or during college, but he did hit at UMass.
   11. Shohei Brotani (formerly LA Hombre) Posted: February 24, 2005 at 08:18 PM (#1163853)
For now. Any news on the movement to add Reagan?

The father of our country? Or is that still Steve Garvey?

There are four busts on Mt. Rushmore.

Joe Torres, Joe Saunders and Seth Etherton have time to pose, if you're just looking for a foursome of recent Angel prospects. I'm optimistic about Morales, but until he actually faces some live pitching, everyone's just randomly guessing.
   12. Mike Emeigh Posted: February 24, 2005 at 08:21 PM (#1163860)
Sickels acknowledges that Jenks was released further down the thread.

-- MWE
   13. Mike Emeigh Posted: February 24, 2005 at 08:27 PM (#1163875)
Kotch over D-Mac is the right choice.

I agree. The decline in McPherson's walk rate, and the increase in his K rate, as he's climbed the ladder are serious negatives. I made a comment on the minorleagueball site that, if you account for park, league, and age (mostly the first two), McPherson's numbers aren't all that much better than Preston Wilson's in 1994 (that may sound strange when you look at them, but the differences between being in Charlotte and Norfolk in the IL and Salt Lake in the PCL are pretty large). McPherson's probably a better player, but I want to see him get the K rate down below 30% of PAs before I ride that bandwagon.

-- MWE
   14. Dingbat_Charlie Posted: February 24, 2005 at 08:49 PM (#1163924)
I'm not sold on Kotchman either. I know he's expected to develop power but when I watched him after his callup he looked more like a future Mark Grace than Todd Helton.
   15. Shohei Brotani (formerly LA Hombre) Posted: February 24, 2005 at 09:03 PM (#1163957)
The Angels are playing Darin Erstad at first base. I would LOVE it if they had someone who hit like Mark Grace there instead.
   16. Los Angeles Waterloo of Black Hawk Posted: February 24, 2005 at 09:07 PM (#1163970)
On Kotchman's power, I think he has a "projectable" body, and he had a few warning-track shots last year that just lacked the extra oomph to get over the fence.

Not that Garret Anderson's power development is at all normal, but Kotch is well ahead of Garret at the same age. I think Kotch is going to develop into a player similar to the 2002-2003 Garret, but with about 20 more points of average. Maybe a 330/370/550 line at his peak.

If he could learn to draw a walk, he could become a monster.

McPherson, by contrast ... I think we'd be lucky to see him match Troy Glaus' career numbers, 253/357/497 (OPS+ 119). With that K rate, McPherson hitting as high as .250 in the majors would be quite an achievement. I think he has great potential, however, and is reported to have a great work ethic. He was impressive in his cup of coffee last year, in terms of how he carried himself afield, as well as his power.

But his batting average is always going to be 70-100 points lower than Kotchman's, and it's hard to have enough power and walks to make up for that.
   17. Cabbage Posted: February 24, 2005 at 09:31 PM (#1164008)
For now. Any news on the movement to add Reagan?

Yup. The geology of the moutain makes it extremely unlikely.
   18. Brian Posted: February 24, 2005 at 09:41 PM (#1164029)
People keep making the Palmeiro/Grace comparison for Kotchman, what about OBP Jesus ? With his great production at a young age and injury problems I think he's more Nick Johnson than the others right now.
   19. Shredder Posted: February 24, 2005 at 10:39 PM (#1164129)
I'm not sold on Kotchman either. I know he's expected to develop power but when I watched him after his callup he looked more like a future Mark Grace than Todd Helton.

Mark Grace was pretty good. I think if you told most teams that their top 1B prospect will be as good as Mark Grace, they'd probably be pretty happy. And I've never once heard Kotchman compared to Todd Helton.

Kotchman will also be two years younger than Grace in his first full season, assuming it's this year. I think the power projections for Kotchman stem from the fact that he's young, and that he hits a lot of doubles. He had 22 in 199 ABs at Salt Lake.
   20. spivey Posted: February 24, 2005 at 10:39 PM (#1164130)
Kotchman had about 1 XBH for every 10 at-bats in 2003. And then he had slightly better than 1 XBH for every 8 at-bats in 2004. I think even if he doesn't get the power projection like everyone things, much like Burroughs hasn't really, he could still easily put up .335/.380/.500. That's a reasonably conservative projection too.

I could see him putting up .350/.400/.575 if everything breaks right.
   21. spivey Posted: February 24, 2005 at 10:41 PM (#1164137)
I agree with Shredder a lot. When a prospect's downside is an allstar player, that's when you know you have a top prospect.
   22. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: February 24, 2005 at 11:12 PM (#1164179)
For now. Any news on the movement to add Reagan?

Yup. The geology of the moutain makes it extremely unlikely.


That's too bad. Time to introduce Mr. Roosevelt to Mr. TNT.

[/sarcasm]
   23. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: February 25, 2005 at 01:30 AM (#1164403)
he could still easily put up .335/.380/.500. That's a reasonably conservative projection too

I don't think a .335 BA can ever be considered conservative. Even for Ichiro.
   24. NJ in NJ Posted: February 25, 2005 at 01:32 AM (#1164407)
I'm pretty sure Mark Grace isn't a low end projection for Kotchman, more towards the middle probably.
   25. Danny Posted: February 25, 2005 at 01:44 AM (#1164432)
People keep making the Palmeiro/Grace comparison for Kotchman, what about OBP Jesus ? With his great production at a young age and injury problems I think he's more Nick Johnson than the others right now.

You're right about the injury similarity, but there are two differences between them. Johnson had a lot more HR power in the minors, and Kotchman's minor league BA is almost 40 points higher.
   26. NJ in NJ Posted: February 25, 2005 at 01:50 AM (#1164447)

You're right about the injury similarity, but there are two differences between them. Johnson had a lot more HR power in the minors, and Kotchman's minor league BA is almost 40 points higher.


Off the top of my head, Johnson played in much tougher overall hitting environments as well.
   27. spivey Posted: February 25, 2005 at 02:16 AM (#1164497)
I don't think a .335 BA can ever be considered conservative. Even for Ichiro.

Looking at Kotchman's ML track record, considering his age at those levels, I think he very easily could be considered a 'true' .335 hitter right now. If he outperforms that projection, as some prospects due, he could do better than t hat. The only reason it seems odd to say that's somewhat conservative is because prospects that hit for average this well only come along once a decade.
   28. Rally Posted: February 25, 2005 at 02:52 AM (#1164554)
A true .335 hitter? In the PCL, probably

In the majors that's an incredible thing. If he was, he'd join a club that probably includes only Ichiro, Pujols, Helton (since he's a Rockie) and Bonds (unless he A: shows his age B: gets caught or C: finds out he can't hit so well w/o steroids).

I'd say Kotchman is a true .280-.300 hitter
   29. Moe Greene Posted: February 25, 2005 at 04:14 AM (#1164722)
I'd say Kotchman killed the lounge.
   30. Moe Greene Posted: February 25, 2005 at 04:16 AM (#1164729)
Except this isn't the lounge, is it? Steve Blass, missing the target again!
   31. Shohei Brotani (formerly LA Hombre) Posted: February 25, 2005 at 04:21 AM (#1164733)
That's the funniest thing I've read all day.
   32. grich Posted: February 25, 2005 at 06:21 AM (#1164886)
I don't see how Kotchman won't at least hit .300 regularly in the big leagues, the two (or three) questions being if he will...

1) ...hit .300 or .330 (or .350, for that matter, which would still only be a career year...even Todd Helton doesn't hit .350 outside of Colorado).

2) ...develop power; at this point it looks like 40+ doubles and 15 HR a year, thus the Grace comparisons. But that is rather pessimistic; my sense is that he'll either develop into a Will Clark-type power hitter (40 doubles, 25 HR) or become a legit power hitter: 35+/35.

3) ...increase his walk totals under Mickey the Slasher. Again, different estimates from 50-80 walks a year, even more.

In conclusion, there is a relatively wide range of possibility for Kotchman, with no less than .300, 15 HR, 40 doubles and 50 walks per annum; with .330, 25 HR, 40 2b, 70 bb certainly within reason.
   33. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: February 25, 2005 at 07:36 AM (#1164954)
If Kotchman is a true .330 hitter, then you're claiming that:

a) He's as likely to hit .360 as he is .300
b) He's as likely to hit .400 as he is .260
c) His true hitting ability is among the top 3 among active hitters

At the very least, that's a very optimistic projection.

FWIW, I'd put the over/under of Kotchman's BA at around .300
   34. Los Angeles Waterloo of Black Hawk Posted: February 25, 2005 at 08:56 AM (#1165067)
Kotch is a guy that has hit .368 at AA and .372 at AAA.

Now, we of course need to consider the sample size, the parks, the leagues, and regression, not to mention his 100+ AB of hitting .220something in the AL last year. Even after all that, would you say that his MLB true talent level is much below .300 right now? Even if it's .290 ... a 21-year-old with that true talent level projects very well.
   35. grich Posted: February 25, 2005 at 09:14 AM (#1165090)
If Kotchman is a true .330 hitter, then you're claiming that:

a) He's as likely to hit .360 as he is .300
b) He's as likely to hit .400 as he is .260


I don't think that's an accurate comparison because of the rarity of hitting .360 and/or .400 compared to .300 and .260. That is, while you're only doing simple math--comparing a range around .330--it isn't quite fair because the upper range is a lot more rare than the lower.

So in other words, saying Kotchman is a true .330 hitter isn't at all like saying what you are saying it is saying.

Anyhow, I'm projecting him to be a .330-type hitter, or at least a good chance of it. My point was that based upon what we've seen so far, the predictions should START at .300, not as a median.
   36. Barca Posted: February 25, 2005 at 11:51 AM (#1165167)
"The Angels are playing Darin Erstad at first base. I would LOVE it if they had someone who hit like Mark Grace there instead."

lol. I think we would love it, if the Angels had someone like Darin Erstad playing CF.
   37. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: February 25, 2005 at 01:56 PM (#1165193)
I don't think that's an accurate comparison because of the rarity of hitting .360 and/or .400 compared to .300 and .260. That is, while you're only doing simple math--comparing a range around .330--it isn't quite fair because the upper range is a lot more rare than the lower.

So in other words, saying Kotchman is a true .330 hitter isn't at all like saying what you are saying it is saying.


Um, no. It's basic statistics: a player is just as likely to be +1 SD as -1 SD around his mean (and just as likely to be +2 SD as -2 SD). Symmetry is an essential nature of normal (and near-normal) distributions. A good projection is a product of possible outcomes weighted by their respective likelihoods.

That you believe that "the upper range is a lot more rare than the lower" is a function of your unrealistically high projection, not an oversimplification of the issue on my part. I see that you're new to the boards so I don't want to be mean about it, but if you don't understand this principle of mathematics, its difficult to take your projections seriously (or much else you might have to say, for that matter).

A true talent of .330 is extremely rare (indeed, historically rare) precisely because .360+ BAs are so uncommon. Just as a function of random chance, a player will usually be within 2 standard deviations of his true talent. In other words, in 500 at bats a true talent .330 hitter's BA could be anywhere between .290 and .370. Do you believe that his chances of hitting .290 are greater than .370? (Here's a hint: of the 6009 seasons in which a hitter has over 499 at bats, only 56 have had batting averages of .369 or higher). Once you acknowledge the fact that hitting .370 is more unlikely for any hitter (including Kotchman) than .290, then you need to lower your mean until the lower and upper range make sense.

For a true talent .300 hitter, the 95% confidence interval is between .260 and .340 BA. This 80 point variation is due just to random chance.

Looking at the two totally objective projections that I have handy, PECOTA projects a .276 BA (399 AB) and ZIPS projects a .316 BA (414 AB). His actual true talent much, much more likely to lie somewhere within the range of those two projections than outside it.


Anyhow, I'm projecting him to be a .330-type hitter, or at least a good chance of it. My point was that based upon what we've seen so far, the predictions should START at .300, not as a median.

This last statement makes no sense. A projection *is* a median of expected performance. The starting point of any projection is where there is a non-zero chance of him hitting (in the context of BA, that's .000 for every hitter). The mean/median then increases until the chances of underperforming 1 SD is the same as overperforming 1 SD. You don't just pick a random number out of thin air because it "feels right." Or at least you don't if you have an IQ above room temperature.
   38. Mike Emeigh Posted: February 25, 2005 at 02:12 PM (#1165202)
I'm surprised there hasn't been more discussion about the A- that Sickels gave to Aybar. He's got a lot of positives, to be sure, but some negatives that I think should be an area of concern as well - he doesn't walk much, he doesn't have a lot of power (his ISO is mostly speed-based), he doesn't look like a great basestealer yet (56 SB but 31 CS), and he strikes out a bit too much for a guy whose game is based on making contact - not an excessive amount, but for a guy of this talent set I'd like to see the K/BB rate below 2:1. Sickels is usually very stingy handing out the A and A- grades, and I think an A- for Aybar at this point is a stretch.

-- MWE
   39. Women's Lib is Ms.Guided Posted: February 25, 2005 at 02:49 PM (#1165224)
Sickels is usually very stingy handing out the A and A- grades, and I think an A- for Aybar at this point is a stretch.

Sickels falls victim to the 'strong systems get grade inflation, weak systems get grade deflation' syndrome.

The fact that he changes his grades willy-nilly based on 'positive reports in spring workouts' and nagging from his readers makes me think that while his analysis is interesting, his rankings don't mean much.

(I understand that a willingness to amend his decisions could be construed positively as open-minded flexibility but it makes me less interested in paying for his now-outdated book.)
   40. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: February 25, 2005 at 03:18 PM (#1165274)
Jenks pitching to Abercrombie: Walk, or not?
   41. Mikαεl Posted: February 25, 2005 at 03:23 PM (#1165293)
HBP
   42. spivey Posted: February 25, 2005 at 03:33 PM (#1165323)
It's basic statistics: a player is just as likely to be +1 SD as -1 SD around his mean (and just as likely to be +2 SD as -2 SD).

I'm not sure those basic statistics equations would work in a situation like this, as at some point even if you were crushing the ball every time you're going to level off eventually.
Over the last 50 years, there have been a lot of 'true' .300 hitters who have hit .200. I can't imagine every single one was due to injury. How many true .300 hitters are there who have hit .400 in that time? 0.

I think Kotchman could very likely be a true .380 hitter in AAA (perhaps even .400 if he played their during his peak). He's hit over .350 each of his last 3 stops, being young at each level. I'm not sure what the park factors are offhand, but I'm very impressed with his hitting.
   43. Dingbat_Charlie Posted: February 25, 2005 at 03:50 PM (#1165380)
he's a true .380 hitter that swings like a girl.


just kidding, but I enjoy thinking about some of the responses that comment would incite.
   44. Rally Posted: February 25, 2005 at 03:51 PM (#1165391)
The reason why there are so few .360 hitters and no .400 hitters since Teddy is that true ability levels of .335, .360, etc., are extremely rare.

How many players in the last 50 years have hit .200 or less in a full season (502 PA)? I'd be surprised if any of them could be described as a true .300 hitter. McGwire hit .201 once, Deer was under .200, they were certainly not true .300 hitters.

I don't agree with your dismissal of what the SD's imply, but put it this way:

If Kotchman is a .335 hitter, then he is the equal of Helton, Pujols, Ichiro, and Bonds v02-04, and better at hitting for average than eveyone else on this planet.

I hope he really is that good, but don't you think that's a little too optimistic?
   45. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: February 25, 2005 at 04:27 PM (#1165499)
Over the last 50 years, there have been a lot of 'true' .300 hitters who have hit .200.

Huh? Name one .200 hitter who's had anything close to a full season worth of at bats.

.240, I'd buy. .200, I highly doubt.
   46. The Polish Sausage Racer Posted: February 26, 2005 at 12:04 AM (#1166681)
Kotchman is kind of a moot question since we won't see what he can do in the majors on any consistent basis until at least 2007---and the Angels are making noises about wanting to saddle themselves with Erstad again after that, so Casey's future, if he has one, is with another team.
   47. 1k5v3L Posted: February 26, 2005 at 12:07 AM (#1166687)
The curse of the gold glove has hit the Angels hard this year; no way Finley and Erstad leave that team for another seven years.
   48. pablo ibbieta Posted: February 26, 2005 at 12:53 AM (#1166755)

Huh? Name one .200 hitter who's had anything close to a full season worth of at bats.

.240, I'd buy. .200, I highly doubt.


Rob Deer had 4 years where he hit lower than .211 with at least 500 PA. Not that he's a true .300 hitter or anything, though.
   49. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: February 26, 2005 at 01:00 AM (#1166762)
Yeah, I was referring to a true talent .300 hitter hitting .200, and Deer or Rey Ordonez or a couple of poor hitting catchers are nowhere near that level of true talent. It just doesn't happen.
   50. Rally Posted: February 26, 2005 at 01:17 AM (#1166780)
I checked to see how often a true .300 hitter hits .200 or anything close to it. In a full season (502 PA), it absolutely does not happen.

I'm using career BA as a substitute for true talent level, since true talent level can only be estimated, not known. Since WWII, there are actually only 4 career .300 hitters who even hit below .250 in a full season -

Aaron 1975 (.234)
L Jones 2004 (.248)
Rose 1983 (.245)
Bonds 1989 (.248)

Now there may be others who were, at the peak of their career, .300 true hitters, but because of their decline phase had less than a .300 career average.

This is somewhat balanced by the fact that the low average seasons tend to come in the decline phase (Aaron, Rose, Larry) or before the player reaches his peak (Bonds).

I looked at a few players who might have been true .300 hitters at some point in their careers, and found a few .220 seasons (again when the player was old and past prime) - Tim Salmon (2001, .227) and Ted Simmons (1984, .221)

Only 3 players hit below .200 for a full year, their career averages are:

Jim Sundberg .248
Tom Tresh .245
Rob Deer .220
   51. Rally Posted: February 26, 2005 at 01:32 AM (#1166800)
The 95% confidence interval for these players was +- 0.041

Norm Cash had the highest difference between a season and his career average at +.089, and the biggest differences were for players exceeding their career average.

No real surprise, because the players hitting the most under their career averages would be more likely to lose their jobs or have missed time due to injury.
   52. grich Posted: February 27, 2005 at 02:05 AM (#1167887)
"Eager to Begin," snarky comments aside (bad day at the office?), you make some good points. Part of the "problem"--if there is one--is that I think you're taking my statements a bit too literally as if I'm making rock-solid predictions, when I'm just throwing guesstimates around and NOT being scientific about it. Furthermore, when I say that Kotchman is a .330 hitter I am talking about his peak years, what I think he is capable of, as an average, over his prime five or so years. I doubt he'll end up with a lifetime .330 batting average (and thus doesn't fit into your definition of a "true .330 hitter", methinks), but more in the .305-.320 range, depending upon whether he goes the "Mark Grace Route" or the "Rafael Palmeiro Route" (remember that when they came up with the Cubs, they were two very similar hitters)...I'm thinking that he'll be somewhere in between, maybe an average year being .315 with 38 doubles and 22 HR.

But a problem I see in your logic is that you are, well, relying too much on logic and formalistic thinking: math, etc. Your obvious reverence to IQ over, say, intuition bears this out further. But the thing is, and what many "sabermetric types" often forget or never realize, is that statistical analysis only goes so far. After that, well, in come the dreaded "intangibles". Look at it this way, you could rank every woman you meet based upon looks, body, sense of humor, intelligence, etc, but in the end you will want to be with the one who sparks you in an intangible way. The same basic principle works in baseball, I think. Although intangibles includes a lot of things that aren't revealed in the numbers: work ethic, psychology, luck, karma, etc.
   53. spivey Posted: February 27, 2005 at 02:42 AM (#1167927)
I definitely overstated the case. I concede the point, but I still have some gut feeling that it's easier to greatly underperform based on your true talent level than greatly overperform.
Justice played like a .320 hitter for some time, with a .240 in the middle. However, it was in 95.

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