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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Sunday, January 01, 2012Sickels: New York Yankees Top 20 Prospects for 2012As we used to say back in the 80’s…Hurry up Todd, Demeter is running.
Repoz
Posted: January 01, 2012 at 09:31 AM | 17 comment(s)
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1. Bruce Markusen Posted: January 01, 2012 at 03:54 PM (#4026603)And it's not like Montero has blazing speed either.
No, it's not just you. It's just that Montero is a Yankee prospect. A hitter like that coming up in another organization would have people on this site drooling, defense be damned. If the Mariners had taken the Yankees' offer for Lee instead of the Rangers', Montero would have been a perfectly cromulent starting 1Bman in MLB at the age of 21.
Anyways, if you're going to rank Montero as if he's a DH, then you need to give his a bat a boost to adjust for the negative effect on offensive performance from playing C. IIRC from the Tom Tango study, it's a pretty big boost. Agreed that Montero is no Trout or Bryce Harper, but it sure looks like he'll be able to 380/490 in his sleep for about 15 years, which is worth a heck of a lot in this era.
But should there be? Assuming the letter grades are the end product of numerical grades, all of the players with any specific letter grade — i.e., any of the nine letter grades Sickels uses (A+, A, A-, etc.) — should fall within no more than about a 5-point range.
I teach and find myself giving a wide range of A grades, they vary from the textbook version of what an A paper is at my institution to the occasional paper that leaves me asking, "why don't you teach the course net time?"
I forgot about the "no A+" policy, but he definitely uses minuses, so it's an eight-variant system.
So Alex Rodriguez wouldn't have qualified and gotten the same A as Ruben Rivera? Amazing.
2. Let's not get too carried away on Montero. He'll be 22 and is projected to a 112 OPS+ ... which is awfully good for a 22-year old but nothing historic. Heyward will also be 22 and is projected to about the same ... and his career projection end up at about the same place. It would be better than Butler at 22 but Butler has progressed to a 128 OPS+ from 23-25 ... nothing great but a pretty reasonable expectation for Montero, not a downside. This is not to deny that Montero could be the next Thome, Delgado or Prince or something.
ZiPS is big on position and comps him to Zeile, Mike Sweeney (both still Cs at the time I think) and somebody named Mike Bishop. Sweeney and Butler are pretty much the same guy and Zeile never hit as well as either of them.
Bishop looks an odd case -- excellent minor-league numbers (at least I assume given the era but maybe the park effects are huge). Got his cup of coffee at age 24 and never played again majors or minor. And I happened to notice he died at age 46. I assume something really crappy happened.
You got a keyboard shortcut for that?
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