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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Tuesday, June 14, 2022Skin in the (Ball) Game: Do Teams Underperform When They’re Out of the Race?
RoyalsRetro (AG#1F)
Posted: June 14, 2022 at 01:26 PM | 6 comment(s)
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1. Walt Davis Posted: June 14, 2022 at 04:48 PM (#6081739)But we're looking only at games in Sept, games between those out of the race vs those locked into it. So what is that, on average, 9-10 games per bad team. A three percent point drop in winning percentage is about 1 fewer win per 33 games than expected. So we're saying that a team that is out of it for 3 straight Septs will win one fewer game against good teams than expected.
The mean estimate is pretty similar so we might say that it's a 3 percentage point drop when an out of it team plays any team that's not also out of it ... which is maybe 15-20 games per Sept ... so every 2 years it's one less win than we'd expect?
So, at worst, once very 2-3 years, the Pirates have an extra "again? our SS has thrown the ball away 3 times in one game again? I give up" moment.
Now it sounds pretty complicated and whether he did it well I have no idea. But going to the trouble of at least checking to see who was in the starting lineup, on the mound and available out of the pen should be a substantial improvement on pre-Sept win %age. The author then asks if anybody has a better idea of how to adjust, let him know. Agreed, he goes into no detail on how those models work but the article's too long as it is.
** I don't think I hear it as much anymore but back in the day, bad teams were "supposed" to play their "real" lineups when playing teams still in the race but expected to play the kids in games that didn't matter. With a couple of good players gone, those lineups weren't all that "real" anymore but it's clear that the ethic was not to mess around. I suspect that went out the window at least a decade ago.
About the time the Astros stopped trying in April?
Even further back in the day, of course – in single-division leagues of eight or ten teams – teams that finished in the "first division," plus the leader of the "second division" (fifth place), got World Series shares: much less than the teams that actually played, but not nothing. Figuring from various accounts of how this worked, I reckon that second-place teams in, say, 1959, got player shares of about $1,800, third place about $1,300, fourth about $500, and even players on the fifth-place teams got about $200 apiece. (The Dodgers got shares of $11,000 and the White Sox about $7,000.)
The shares for regular-season finishes were not a fortune, but when a lot of guys weren't making even $10,000 a year, that was a nice bonus. So there was nearly always something for at least one of the teams in a given game to play for, and pressure on their managers to try to win games (quite apart from individual players wanting to do well, thinking ahead in "salary drive" terms).
Apparently a vestige of this system still exists, with the top teams that miss the postseason getting shares that are now about $10,000 or $12,000, but as a percentage of even the minimum anymore, that's almost negligible. I have never heard anybody talk about this as a factor in any on-field decisions. But long ago, you would hear of teams regrouping to make a run for "first division" status after the All-Star Break.
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