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Tuesday, October 30, 2007

Skyking 162: Potential Mistake: Signing Mike Lowell

Or as I overheard in the bar the other night…“Mike Lowell would have lesser than zero home runs at Yankee Stadium”

3 - Lowell will be 34 years old during the 2008 season. Every free agent signing is a risk, but older players carry more risk. I’m worried about a small letdown in 2008, and then there’s 2009, 2010, and possibly 2011 to worry about, too. The list of 37 year old players who hit like their 33 year old selves is a short one. Again, it’s perfectly possible for Lowell to maintain his current pace, but it’s not something to count on or pay for.

4 - Fielding was not actually a strength of Lowell’s this past season and is a skill that clearly declines with age. Two fielding systems based on separate sets of fielding data peg him around average for a third baseman: one is at -6 runs and one is at +5 runs. UZR, the best publicly available fielding measure, puts him at -6, +9, +1, +20, and -7 runs from 2003 through the first half of 2007. You can’t be more solidly average defensively than an average-fielding third baseman.

Repoz Posted: October 30, 2007 at 12:48 PM | 8 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: red sox

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   1. ekogan Posted: October 30, 2007 at 02:35 PM (#2600020)
Assuming free agents sign for about $2.5 million per win on top of the half million league minimum


While he is correct that Lowell projects to be a league average third baseman over the next couple of years, the author is wrong about how much wins cost in the current marketplace. Tango had a win costing $4.5 mil last year, and it will probably cost $5 mil this year. This makes Lowell worth anywhere from $10 to $15 mil per year. I'd be more worried about the length of the contract he will receive after being WS MVP and now that Yankees will probably have to sign him to avoid having a hole at third base. I'd be pretty happy with a 3 years/$14 per year. It might be a slight overpay, but doable for the Red Sox. It's getting into fourth year that will lock Boston into paying (and playing) Lowell when he's a bench quality player.

And finally a non A-Rod thread. Let's not turn this into a Boras Think Factory
   2. SkyKing162 Posted: October 30, 2007 at 05:02 PM (#2600269)
Wow, $4.5 million per marginal win? I must be stuck in 2005.

That certainly makes a difference, both for the analysis and for wondering why the hell teams would be willing to sign many free agents.
   3. The Piehole of David Wells Posted: October 30, 2007 at 06:12 PM (#2600389)
i said this in the game thread the other night, but i don't want the sox to sign a single person to a contract until after the mitchell report is released. otherwise, we could be stuck with some really unattractive contracts. lowell worries me. his 2005 drop-off (coupled with millar's 2005 drop-off) raises just enough of a question for me to want to wait.

i really don't want that report to effectively eviscerate this world series win, but i worry that it will.
   4. Dave Cyprian Posted: October 30, 2007 at 06:17 PM (#2600399)
Thats actually a pretty good point piehole. Other than perfect-fit type scenarios, I wonder if most every team will be waiting for the mitchell report before signing free agents. The reports findings certainly would help with player evaluations.
   5. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: October 30, 2007 at 06:21 PM (#2600404)
Thats actually a pretty good point piehole. Other than perfect-fit type scenarios, I wonder if most every team will be waiting for the mitchell report before signing free agents. The reports findings certainly would help with player evaluations.

I imagine the teams already have access to the report. Or at least teams that are friendly with Bud. I'm cynical, aren't I? But seriously, I would bet money the teams can ask about specific players if they need this information. It's the media that has to wait.
   6. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: October 30, 2007 at 06:25 PM (#2600409)
Well surely the Red Sox should already have this information.
   7. aleskel Posted: October 30, 2007 at 06:27 PM (#2600412)
Thats actually a pretty good point piehole

I'm sorry, but I couldn't read on after that sentence. I couldn't stop laughing
   8. The Yankee Clapper Posted: October 30, 2007 at 06:35 PM (#2600429)
but i don't want the sox to sign a single person to a contract until after the mitchell report is released. otherwise, we could be stuck with some really unattractive contracts. lowell worries me. his 2005 drop-off (coupled with millar's 2005 drop-off) raises just enough of a question for me to want to wait.

Players & agents won't delay negotiations for the Mitchell report, so you'd basically be out of the market until the report comes out. If that's mid-December, that'd be quite a disadvantage if the [possibly untainted] talent goes elsewhere.

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