This offseason, the Mets need help on offense, defense, pitching and defense, as Minaya said.

It appears that the Mets will be placing an emphasis on defense.

DB

The Mets have prospects?

I'm already steeling myself for guys like Reese Havens to get traded for garbage. Omar is going to do anything to save his job and the Mets are going to do anything to try to bolster fan interest and ticket sales.

This offseason is going to suck.

It appears that the Mets will be placing an emphasis on defense.

That wasn't a typo, it was a joke. That was actually how Minaya phrased the team's offseason needs.

Minaya has been reluctant to trade prospects as Met GM. If anything, probably too reluctant.

He needs to trade for House.

That wasn't a typo, it was a joke. That was actually how Minaya phrased the team's offseason needs.

Of that, I had no doubt.

Just my own humble opinion, of course, but I think that the Mets would do very well this off season if they can sign Holliday as a free agent and pick up a starting pitcher on the cheap. Would that be enough to get them to the playoffs? No, not unless it's accompanied by significant improvement (along with good health) from at least two of Murphy, Maine, and Oliver Perez. But it would improve the team overall without hurting the farm system, and give the Mets something to build on for 2011.

DB

As Russlan pointed out, trading prospects has not been a hallmark of Minaya's tenure. I'm more bullish than most on the Mets prospects but if they get shut out in the FA market for an impact player, than it would be insane for the Mets not to explore deals where they trade minor league guys.

There's Fernando Martinez and then there's everyone else. And Martinez has a huge red flag with his injury history. I don't see anyone in the farm system who should hold up a Carl Crawford/or any other star on the trading block deal. It's one thing if you don't want to trade the team's top five prospects, but no one player should be off limits for guys on the right side of 30 with elite talent.

Minaya has been reluctant to trade prospects as Met GM. If anything, probably too reluctant.

He has? I'm not talking about his top-tier guys necessarily, but all the times he's traded Minor League bulk for replacement level players. This is the dude who once traded two Minor Leaguers for Jeff Conine, and two for Paul Lo Duca when there were free-agent catchers on the market who were just as good.

Last year he traded seven guys, many of them young, for JJ Putz, Sean Green and Jeremy Reed. It was generally a well-regarded trade at the time because the prospects weren't in the team's top 10, but Ezequiel Carrera put up a .441 OBP in Double-A at Age 22 and Mike Carp probably would have been one of the Mets' better hitters this season.

What about Havens for Luke Scott? That seems like a fair deal that would benefit both teams.

What about Havens for Luke Scott? That seems like a fair deal that would benefit both teams.

How would the Mets benefit from a DH?

Scott is a good LF (UZR of 5.7/150 for his career).

Scott is a good LF (UZR of 5.7/150 for his career).

He's also arbitration eligbile and 31 years old. I wouldn't trade an actual prospect for him.

It was generally a well-regarded trade at the time because the prospects weren't in the team's top 10, but Ezequiel Carrera put up a .441 OBP in Double-A at Age 22 and Mike Carp probably would have been one of the Mets' better hitters this season.

Mike Carp wouldn't have sniffed the majors in NY if Delgado hadn't been hurt. He'd need to add about 10-15 HR to be truly valuable. Adrian Gonzalez is about the only guy I can think of with that skill set who has actually managed to do it - and Gonzalez is much more of an athlete than Carp.

It is true that Carrera put up a .441 OBP in West Tenn this year. It is also true that he had to hit .337 to do that, that he had exactly 18 extra-base hits in 91 games, and he has yet to play a full season without missing significant chunks of time due to injury. He's your basic Juan Pierre clone, with more singles and fewer extra-base hits. He's certainly not beating out Beltran any time soon, and I can't imagine that he'd be anyone's first choice in LF.

Those are exactly the kinds of prospects that you SHOULD trade. They have a chance to contribute, but are role players at best.

-- MWE

He has? I'm not talking about his top-tier guys necessarily, but all the times he's traded Minor League bulk for replacement level players.

My impression is that he has a list of guys he's afraid to trade, but that he'll use everyone/anyone else as a throw in. He doesn't seem to view minor leaguers as being on a continuum, good prospect-prospect-poor prospect- non-prospect- he seems to see: prospect/non-prospect.
Unfortunately the guys he's not afraid to trade are guys like Heath Bell and Matt Lindstrom and the guys he's afraid to trade are guys like Bobby Parnell. There may be little to separate 2 guys, but if you fall on the wrong side of Omar's line he'll trade you in exchange for pocket lint, on the "right" side, and you're untouchable, unless maybe it's for someone like Santana.

No hitter (yet) that he's traded have come back to haunt the Mets, but his pitching trades have been a bit mixed...

There is Ezequiel Carrera, who looks to be a better version of Thole as a hitter, Carp who has a habit of starting fast and fading- that may be a conditioning/training issue- or it may be that the 2nd/3rd time through a league they have his number, he also hit .315/.415/.463 in 65 PAs for Seattle. He's year younger than Dan Murphy and was a better hitter in the minors than Murphy- and presumably will be a better hitter in the MLB (damming with faint praise...)

Sean Henry was a 21 year old OF who hit .293/.355/.456 in St Lucie, a fine performance, not regarded as a prospect he was cast off for Jeff Conine's rotting corpse.
Dustin Martin was traded for Castillo, he promptly hit .290/.355/.447 in AA (EL), he cratered in AAA this year, but still- why are you trading guys who can hit even a little in the high minors- for for guys that can be had for nothing (nothing but money anyway)? Sooner or later the "bulk" that you are dealing like this is going to bite you.

Meanwhile, the Binghamton Mets were starting Emmanuel Garcia in CF this year- a guy who couldn't hit enough to be an asset at A+ playing SS. Buffalo went 56-87, Binghamton 54-86, no decent spare parts were available for the MLB team when the wheels went off.

St Lucie was 66-68, some 22-23 year olds played well- but that old for the league, and besides, based upon Omar's past history, there is little chance that guys like Carlos Guzman, Brahiam Maldonado and Zach Lutz will be in the Mutts system when they are e;age average players in AAA

Those are exactly the kinds of prospects that you SHOULD trade. They have a chance to contribute, but are role players at best.

-- MWE

Yes, but
1: what is he getting in return; and

2: what distinguishes them from the guys who Omar thinks are untouchable no matter what?

regarding Zeke Carrera. You are not the list bit interested in seeing if the under 25 year old guy with the highest OBP in AA/AAA can be a contributor? In recent years the Mutts have given significant MLB playing time to the likes of Jeremy Reed, Alex Cora, Omir Santos, Cory Sullivan Anderson Hernandez, Wilson Valdez, Marlon Anderson... gag. So teh Mutts tarde away all there tweeners who "have a chance to contribute, but are role players at best." and we continually import this cast off dreck.

He's also arbitration eligbile and 31 years old. I wouldn't trade an actual prospect for him.

So what if he's arbitration eligible? We're talking about the mets, not the Marlins. Scott can give the Mets a 110-120 OPS+ with decent defense in LF. He's exactly the kind of averagish player the Mets need to supplement their core.

regarding Zeke Carrera. You are not the list bit interested in seeing if the under 25 year old guy with the highest OBP in AA/AAA can be a contributor? In recent years the Mutts have given significant MLB playing time to the likes of Jeremy Reed, Alex Cora, Omir Santos, Cory Sullivan Anderson Hernandez, Wilson Valdez, Marlon Anderson... gag. So teh Mutts tarde away all there tweeners who "have a chance to contribute, but are role players at best." and we continually import this cast off dreck.

This. And Cora cost them $2 million this year, and they owed Marlon Anderson $1.15 million. And they had to trade to get Hernandez and Valdez (PTBNLs both, but they didn't have guys as good as Hernandez and Valdez in their system).

You need to have guys on your team, and they don't all have to be stars. Maybe Zeke Carrera's never going to be a starting outfielder, but it's not unreasonable to expect he'll be a competent Major League 4th outfielder. And instead of developing one of those and having him cheap and under control, the Mets will have to go trade for one or sign one as a free agent. And he'll probably suck.

Mike Carp wouldn't have sniffed the majors in NY if Delgado hadn't been hurt.

That's exactly the thing, right? People do get hurt. No one could have expected the type of injuries that befell the Mets this year, but when you haphazardly trade young players -- even guys with only marginal upside -- you end up with the type of paper-thin organization the Mets had in 2009. Their best Triple-A hitter this year was Chip Ambres -- himself a mid-year acquisition -- who posted a .742 OPS in a neutral park.

This meme of GMs destroying the farm system to save their jobs is getting out of hand.

Minaya signed a 3-year extenstion. He's secure until 2012. His worst-case scenario is getting fired but still getting paid. He's as secure as any GM can ever be.

Plus, as several have pointed out, Minaya has no history of trading away top prospects. Whether his middling prospect trades have worked out or not is something beside the point for the main topic of this discussion. But he has most definitely not traded away F-Mart or Wright or Reyes or the various young pitchers (once upon a time Mets fans were begging Omar not to trade away future star Mike Pelfrey).

The important point is that the Mets don't really have the kind of young talent that will bring back a big player. A one year rental sure, maybe a deal of a couple prospects for a Nick Swisher type (decent player, cost-controlled) sure. But other GMs aren't drooling over F-Mart much less Thole. If he can get another GM to give him an honestly good player for F-Mart, he should make that deal.

And he'll probably suck.

another thing, Omar will drag in 5-6 has beens, and by accident one will not suck (for one year anyway- see Valentine 2006/Tatis 2008), and Omar will re-sign that guy and expect him to continue not to suck.

And I really hate the fact that every year we give multiple starts to guys like
James Baldwin
Jose Lima
Brian Lawrence
Tim Redding
Livan Henrnandez

1: Well past their expiration date
2: Not as a last ditch, well nothing else has worked measure- but as the FIRST effing fall back

Best case scenario, is you get a handful of decent starts- like Livan this year- but of course that didn't last...
Good god, you could haul up Nelson Figgy- he won't be any worse and he'll be cheaper (and easier to root for). Brian Bannister could have filled that role as well.

Maybe they are learning- they did let Nieve start, who was an ex-prospect- but both young and hard throwing- but of course it took the loss of virtually every intended rotation member....

Plus, as several have pointed out, Minaya has no history of trading away top prospects.

Bartolo Colon....

-edit-
which may be why he seems to regard guys above his "line" as being absolutely untouchable

No one could have expected the type of injuries that befell the Mets this year

He's secure until 2012. His worst-case scenario is getting fired but still getting paid. He's as secure as any GM can ever be.

NO, his worst case scenario is that the Wilpons keep upping the ante, even after they can all his friends, and make his life a living hell until he quits (so they can pay his successor 500k a year and pocket the difference).

That's Omar's worst case scenario.

For all we know Omar isn't even allowed to trade FMART...
and anyway, FMart's injury proneness aside- here's a 20 year old who was hitting .290/.337/.540 in the IL (league: .262/.328/.395), gee what if instead of being rushed (or as Minaya/Bernazard referred to it- "challenged"), he'd been allowed a full year at age 20 in the FSL or even EL?
What would his trade value be then?

The point I was making about Carrera is that his particular set of skills - singles-hitting and walks - do NOT translate well to the major leagues, because once major-league pitchers figure out that you won't hurt them much by putting the ball in play they'll just throw it over the plate and dare you to hit it. Unless he can start driving the ball he's not going to hit .337 in the majors, and if he doesn't he's a fifth outfielder at best.

WRT Carp: You can make an argument that Minaya shouldn't have used Carp, et. al., to get bullpen value that he might have been able to get without trading them - and that argument makes sense (and was made here) - but I don't think it's fair to look back and say Minaya should have hung on to Carp as insurance in the event that Delgado went down. Carp's not the type of prospect who is likely to have a marquee role on a major league pennant winner, and when you can trade someone like Carp to help improve the major league team over the short term that can be the right thing to do.

-- MWE

I hate always having to be a Minaya apologist (especially since I might have fired him after last season) but there's a lot of hindsight bias being shown here.

Mike Carp; The Mets had Delgado coming off a huge second half, Murphy having had a better season in 2008 (when you consider his MLB work), and Nick Evans who had a better season and was a better athlete. That doesn't even include a guy like Ike Davis who wasn't ever going to play in the big leagues in 2009 but was more likely to be a long-term answer than Carp. It sucks that the season went down the drain and Putz got hurt but losing Carp is not a big deal.

Zeke Carrera: He had a .737 OPS in A-ball as a 21 year old and an ISO slugging of .080 this year. He might be a useful 4th outfielder but isn't that what Angel Pagan is already? And what's wrong with Fernando Tatis as a 4th outfielder this season? A 104 OPS+ is hardly horrible and decent production for 1 million dollars. Is Zeke really a guy the Mets shouldn't be trading? You are never going to trade anyone if you believe that.

Minaya traded Owens, Lindstrom, and Bell because he thought that Burgos was going to be a future setup man/closer and Sanchez was going to recover. I don't think anyone could anticipate that Burgos was going to be where he is today when the Mets made the trade. But I guess Minaya should have been less confident in Sanchez's recovery and trading Bell was a mistake.

If the Mets had made the playoffs by one game in 2007, would the Castillo trade have been a mistake? The trade itself was not a mistake at all. The contract might prove to be a mistake.

Trading for Lo Duca saved the Mets some money on a contract extension and saved them a draft pick for not signing Hernandez. That pick (Mulvey) was used in the Santana trade.

You guys are acting like Minaya is an idiot. Most people didn't think he was this stupid before the season started and the things that happened were outside his control for the most part. The only major thing he did since then was trade for Francoeur. The guy he traded probably will be non-tendered by the Braves.

Again, I don't really love Minaya's work up to this point but this is excessively harsh and is the result of an emotionally draining season.

So what if he's arbitration eligible? We're talking about the mets, not the Marlins. Scott can give the Mets a 110-120 OPS+ with decent defense in LF. He's exactly the kind of averagish player the Mets need to supplement their core.

Agreed. But I wouldn't trade a real prospect for him. And Havens is a real prospect. Scott's a LF/1B/DH who's 31 years old (on the decline side of his career) who's arbitration eligible (costing more money that could be used elsewhere).

Havens is a real prospect.

IF (big IF) he can stay on SS.

-- MWE

Havens is a real prospect.

IF (big IF) he can stay on SS.

He's a 2B for the Mets if he makes it to the majors.

Why don't you think he'll hit enough to be a 2b? He didn't dominate the FSL but he didn't have a very good BABIP and it's a tough league to hit in. He's not going to stick as a SS.

There's a lot of hindsight bias being shown here.

This is probably fair, and I hate going back into my archives because I've been wrong about so many things. But after the Putz trade, I did write: "I'm more concerned about the price the Mets paid in players," and "by moving so many young players, the Mets decreased their chances of developing a prospect into a Major League contributor."

Most people didn't think he was this stupid before the season started.

That's also true, for sure. But criticizing Minaya for his lack of attention to the margins of the roster and organizational depth is nothing new, certainly not here.

He's a 2B for the Mets if he makes it to the majors.

Can he stay healthy in the middle infield? (Not a particularly good track record there so far.) And will the Mets start the transition now or let him stay at SS until the last minute?

His skill set is somewhat similar to Chase Utley's, but he's not quite as consistent yet and we'll have to see whether the power will blossom. 2009 was a small step forward; he needs to take a bigger one next year. The Mets were smart to jump him past low-A.

-- MWE

Minaya traded Owens, Lindstrom, and Bell because he thought that Burgos was going to be a future setup man/closer and Sanchez was going to recover. I don't think anyone could anticipate that Burgos was going to be where he is today when the Mets made the trade. But I guess Minaya should have been less confident in Sanchez's recovery and trading Bell was a mistake.

1: Believing Sanchez was going to recover is simply another data point against the Mets medical staff (A doctor friend of mine said AT THE TIME, that based on how the injury was reported Sanchez was never going to pitch again- no way no how- he was wrong obviously, but just as obvious was that Sanchez was not remotely the same.

2: Burgos- just another guy who could throw hard, but had shown little ability to, you know, pitch. 4.40 minor league ERA is not awe inspiring, his MLB record is not awe inspiring, sure these guys sometimes turn the corner, but [paraphrasing Bill James], they more often turn an ankle, and lose their stuff well before they learn how to pitch. You may not have been able to anticipate Burgos' exact fate, but you could have anticipated that he likely would not be all that effective.

3: Carp

Mike Carp; The Mets had Delgado coming off a huge second half, Murphy having had a better season in 2008 (when you consider his MLB work), and Nick Evans who had a better season and was a better athlete.

You're arguing with the wrong guy, I'm on the record (in repeated arguments with Sam M...) that Carp was better than Evans or Murphy, so I categorically reject your premise - I believed then (and now) that Carp was the wrong one of the Mets AA "clones" to deal off.

IF (big IF) he can stay on SS.

-- MWE

You're kinder towards him than I am.

If the Mets had made the playoffs by one game in 2007, would the Castillo trade have been a mistake?

No, my general point was that in these type of deals most teams take on salary, and trade toolsy projects- Omar seems to give the other team as many league average (or above) young guys as they want, while keeping the toolsy guys.

I have little to no faith in the Mutts ability to develop their toolsy guys- so in my mind they are the ones to trade, and the constant shedding of the decent minor league performers leads to the constant influx of the likes of Marlon Anderson et al onto the MLB roster as role players.

It also makes no sense to trade a Heath Bell or a Matt Lindstrom for pocket lint, while declaring a Parnell to be untouchable.

If you had to pick one guy, who would you keep between Havens and Tejada?

Agreed. But I wouldn't trade a real prospect for him. And Havens is a real prospect. Scott's a LF/1B/DH who's 31 years old (on the decline side of his career) who's arbitration eligible (costing more money that could be used elsewhere).

I guess we're debating the definition of "real prospect." I agree that Havens is a good prospect with real upside, but he's hardly an A-list guy. He seems like exactly the type of prospect they should trade for a guy like Luke Scott *IF* they're going to try to compete in 2010 and 2011.

Burgos- just another guy who could throw hard, but had shown little ability to, you know, pitch. 4.40 minor league ERA is not awe inspiring, his MLB record is not awe inspiring, sure these guys sometimes turn the corner, but [paraphrasing Bill James], they more often turn an ankle, and lose their stuff well before they learn how to pitch.

Couldn't the same exact paragraph have been written about Lindstrom and Owens? Burgos did have a 111 ERA+ in the big leagues as a 21 year old, had averaged a strikeout per IP, and a 137/68 k/bb ratio. It's mot like he had never shwon the ability to be decent.

It also makes no sense to trade a Heath Bell or a Matt Lindstrom for pocket lint, while declaring a Parnell to be untouchable.


Minaya dumped Bell but I liked the Lindstrom for Vargas trade at the time. Vargas' was pretty good in 2005 and had a superb minor league track record.

You guys are acting like Minaya is an idiot. Most people didn't think he was this stupid before the season started and the things that happened were outside his control for the most part.

I thought and still think he was better than his two immediate predecessors.

My big problem is that performance seems to matter little to Minaya, given free reign he will surround himself with friends, irrespective of his friends' actual talents and abilities. Player promotions in the minor league system seems to be largely independent of performance, and I assume is based upon the Mets' in house scouting (which seems to be both highly idiosyncratic*, and fixed)

*I read somewhere (BA?) that the Mets' internal assessments of their players has very little relationship to what external scouts think- and that the disparity is greater than that for any other team. In other words the Mets top 10 list would likely have a few different names and be in a different order than an external observer's list. As a Met fan, I don't trust the Mets' internal assessments to be the correct ones (no such thing- I don't trust them to be the least wrong)

Last but not least, I think Minaya's roll with the team is finished, he put a core in place, but I think he is the absolute wrong man to see the team to the next step.

Last but not least, I think Minaya's roll with the team is finished, he put a core in place, but I think he is the absolute wrong man to see the team to the next step.

I do think he will be fired sometime during the 2010 season or just after it.

Couldn't the same exact paragraph have been written about Lindstrom and Owens?

Yes, more or less. Omar seems to prefer one guy over another, and will incur transaction costs in swapping out guys- for no objective gain.

And using hindsight, Omar (or whoever he relies upon) just is not good at looking at these guys and picking the "right" ones. Omar has spent a lot of time, money and talent, seeking to "fix" the pen, while simultaneously pissing away talent that would have fixed the pen fro him just as well.

I do think he will be fired sometime during the 2010 season or just after it.

I think the Wilpons are trying to make him quit- now. (I don't think it would work- I certainly wouldn't quit if I was Omar)

If you had to pick one guy, who would you keep between Havens and Tejada?

At this point, Tejada (he is still REALLY raw but the upside is still there). But ask me again in 12 months.

-- MWE

At this point, Tejada (he is still REALLY raw but the upside is still there). But ask me again in 12 months.

-- MWE

That's cheating :-)

Plus Sam M says Tejada is not a prospect because he has no upside :-) (I think he's taken his irrational Dan Murphy love, flipped it 180 and turned it into an irrational Tejada hate).

I'd pick Tejada because Havens looks like another Mark Kiger to me

If you had to pick one guy, who would you keep between Havens and Tejada?

I think Tejada has higher upside, but is also more likely to flame out. Havens (if he can stay healthy) has a better chance of reaching his potential and probably has more power then Tejada.

Player promotions in the minor league system seems to be largely independent of performance, and I assume is based upon the Mets' in house scouting

To some extent, performance is secondary to scouting in the minor leagues. A player might have poor performance due to not being very good or they are told to work on developing specific skills (hit to the opposite field or throw more sliders) which will impact their performance. And there could also be times where a player is dominating, but scouting shows that they are not ready for the next level yet due to some flaws.

As an example, Kirk Nieuwenhuis:

One possible reason for the hot streak is a new approach. Nieuwenhuis had showed opposite-field power early in the season, but he was vulnerable to being pitching inside. But the St. Lucie staff worked on cleaning up his swing. Not he’s able to turn on inside fastballs, taking a vulnerability and turning it into a strength.

Nieuwenhuis was hitting .251/.342/.410 through July. Decent but not great numbers. But when the development changes the organization was working with him on finally clicked, he took off and tore through A+ and AA. If you looked at Nieuwenhuis's performance in A+ (.274/.357/.467) as a whole, they don't tell the true story of why he was promoted to AA.

I think Tejada has higher upside, but is also more likely to flame out.

That's why I said to ask again in 12 months :) At this point, I don't think any of us have ANY idea what shape Tejada's future will take.

-- MWE

It's tough to get the context for trades and signings when we don't know what the budget is. I've heard everything from a low of $15m (Ted Berg) to something like $35m, or about what would be available for acquisitions for the ML club if payroll stays the same.

Does anyone have a better sense of the range?