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Monday, June 21, 2021

So no one told you OMNICHATTER! was going to be this way, for June 21, 2021

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Hombre Brotani Posted: June 21, 2021 at 03:16 PM | 33 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: omnichatter

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   1. Hombre Brotani Posted: June 21, 2021 at 03:38 PM (#6025583)
   2. JJ1986 Posted: June 21, 2021 at 05:33 PM (#6025612)
I missed the first inning of deGrom, but he looks better today than he did in his aborted start last week.
   3. Hombre Brotani Posted: June 21, 2021 at 05:51 PM (#6025615)
Figures the one guy who gets on against deGrom is the pitcher.
   4. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: June 21, 2021 at 06:04 PM (#6025617)
I missed the first inning of deGrom, but he looks better today than he did in his aborted start last week.

Unpossible. He struck out 8 of the 9 Cubs he faced. I mean, I guess Rizzo's out was almost to the warning track.
   5. JJ1986 Posted: June 21, 2021 at 06:18 PM (#6025619)
It took him like 10 pitches to strike out Rafael Ortega.

More seriously, to me, it looks like something is wrong with Jake when his fastball misses way up which he did a bunch against the Cubs. It's still not a hittable pitch, but it seems to coincide with him feeling off.
   6. Howie Menckel Posted: June 21, 2021 at 06:22 PM (#6025621)
and yet Braves are hitless through 4 innings

could be first-ever Mets pitcher to pitch the full number of scheduled innings without allowing a batter to hit the ball beyond the infield in fair territory.

but as we learned with Bumgarner earlier this year, wouldn't count as a no-hitter - but would be a milestone in Mets annals.

so the Mets TV booth gets all the love, but the radio guys were on fire today. Villar walks and Lindor sac bunts him to second.

then Villar takes third on a fly out. while noting the disclaimers about making the third out at third base, they noted that the Braves OF caught the ball flatfooted - and that the Mets were willing to be very aggressive to try to get deGrom this run.

more importantly, they added, this rookie Braves pitcher is known to be quite wild - even having thrown 16 wild pitches in the minors two years ago.

then the Braves 3B allows Villar to get a big lead, which as they noted, "would make it that much easier for him to score if a ball gets away from the catcher."

at this point, the only question left would be if it happened on the next pitch, or one or two later.

it happened on the next pitch - and that's the only run so halfway through this abbreviated game.

EDIT: Sorry, Jake - double with 2 out in 5th.
   7. Hombre Brotani Posted: June 21, 2021 at 06:23 PM (#6025622)
Almora making the routine look less than spectacular.
   8. JJ1986 Posted: June 21, 2021 at 06:24 PM (#6025623)
I'd really be in favor of baseball having a 5:00 game every day MON-THU.
   9. Hombre Brotani Posted: June 21, 2021 at 06:26 PM (#6025624)
One of Smith or Almora has to make that catch. That thing hung up forever. Somebody call that ####. Geez.
   10. Howie Menckel Posted: June 21, 2021 at 06:42 PM (#6025627)
deGrom departs after what him for 5 pedestrian innings - 0 R, 1 H, 2 BB, only 6 K.

bags loaded, bottom 5, Lindor short fly out on a 3-0 pitch, and Dom Smith - a LHB who the Mets TV guys note has been their best hitter vs lefties this year - is handed an income lefty RP like how a pet snake gets a mouse at dinner time.

Smith rips a bases-clearing double down the RF line, and it's 4-0.

thanks, Braves!
   11. Hombre Brotani Posted: June 21, 2021 at 06:47 PM (#6025629)
Smith clears the bases. DeGrom might actually win one!
   12. Howie Menckel Posted: June 21, 2021 at 07:10 PM (#6025636)
not a completely fair comparison because deGrom throws fewer IP than Pedro, who threw fewer than Gooden or Gibson - but after 12 starts, ERA (and at end of season):

2021 deGrom 0.50
2000 Pedro 0.99 (1.74)
1968 Gibson 1.52 (1.12)
1985 Gooden 1.72 (1.53)
   13. The Yankee Clapper Posted: June 21, 2021 at 07:35 PM (#6025638)
‘5-inning pitcher’ used to be a put down, or was it 6? Times change.
   14. TomH Posted: June 21, 2021 at 07:42 PM (#6025640)
Lowest ERA in a season, minimum of 40 IP

. . . name YEAR ERA IP
1 Buck O'Brien..... 1911 0.38 47.2
Jacob deGrom**** 2021 0.50 67
2 Joey Devine...... 2008 0.59 45.2
3 Dennis Eckersley 1990 0.61 73.1
   15. AndrewJ Posted: June 21, 2021 at 07:46 PM (#6025642)
I'm beginning to think deGrom's going to beat Gibson's 1.12 ERA this season.
   16. Walt Davis Posted: June 21, 2021 at 08:38 PM (#6025649)
He needs 90 more innings to qualify for the ERA title. At his current pace, that's 15 more starts. So chances are he will get there but he's not even halfway yet. He still needs to average a 1.39 ERA over 90 innings to still be at 1.12 at that point ... then of course 1.12 for the rest of the year.

Gibson's tear started with his 12th start. For June 6 to July 30, Gibson threw 99 innings with a 0.27 ERA to push his overall ERA below 1. He got "roughed up" for the rest of the season, going just 7-4 with a 1.42 ERA in 108 innings. That should sound familiar to deGrom.

Pedro 2000 made a human start about once every 3-4 starts and never went on a super-human tear. Even when his ERA was under 1 in mid-May, he'd had two good but hardly memorable starts of 7 IP, 2 ER (and 1 UER) and the start after that he gave up 3 in 8 innings. He got it back below 1 again but then had one normal start and one bad start. In late Aug he even had a 8 IP, 6 ER start. Still, a solid effort. :-)

Gooden was similar to Pedro only more so. His ERA never got below 1 (low of 1.17) but he was quite consistent as the only day if was above 1.90 was opening day.

Obviously context makes deGrom's achievement so far even more incredible -- nobody can touch that ERA+, not even Pedro when his ERA was under 1.
   17. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: June 21, 2021 at 08:45 PM (#6025650)
For June 6 to July 30, Gibson threw 99 innings with a 0.27 ERA to push his overall ERA below 1.

Even if you don't count those 11 games, Gibson gave up 35 ER in 205 2/3 IP, for an ERA of 1.53, which STILL WOULD'VE LED THE LEAGUE!)
   18. The Yankee Clapper Posted: June 21, 2021 at 08:50 PM (#6025652)
Jim Palmer rather dismayed over the Orioles ability to execute cut off throws to keep the double play in order against Astros. Suggests remedial efforts are in order.
   19. JJ1986 Posted: June 21, 2021 at 09:30 PM (#6025658)
So, where the hell was Biggles when you needed him last Saturday?
   20. Howie Menckel Posted: June 21, 2021 at 10:12 PM (#6025662)

06.21... Javier Baez was benched by Cubs manager David Ross after losing track of the number of outs in the bottom of the fourth inning against the Indians.
Spin: Baez evidently thought there were two outs when Anthony Rizzo hit a one-out flyball to left field and he was easily doubled off of first base. Ross then decided to replace Baez at shortstop with Sergio Alcantara. Baez was hitless in two plate appearances.
   21. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: June 21, 2021 at 10:19 PM (#6025664)
Obviously context makes deGrom's achievement so far even more incredible -- nobody can touch that ERA+, not even Pedro when his ERA was under 1.

Well, no, but then no matter what context you want to put it in, a pitcher with 312 innings is still more valuable on one level than a pitcher with barely 200, even if that first pitcher (Gibson in 1968) had an ERA+ of "only" 258. The fewer innings a world class starter leaves for an indeterminately talented bullpen to deal with, the better off his team is.

P. S. Obviously that's not a knock on de Grom, who's on a short list of greatest peak performance pitchers ever. My only complaint about de Grom is that he does most of his pitching in the wrong NYC borough.
   22. Howie Menckel Posted: June 21, 2021 at 10:47 PM (#6025667)
in Sept 1985, Gooden

- 9 scoreless at LAD, 10 K, 5 H, 0 BB - a no-decision
- 9 more scoreless vs STL, 7 K, 5 H, 3 BB - again a no-decision
- 9 MORE scoreless vs PHI, 11 K, 2 H, 2 BB - finally a win
- 8 more 0 ER IP vs PIT (but a UER), 4 K, 4 H, 2 BB - 12-1 win so he skipped the 9th for once
- 9 MORE scoreless at CHI, 7 K, 8 H, 2 BB - another win
- 9 IP at STL but 2 ER, 10 K, 9 H, 4 BB - another win (ok this was Oct 2, the finale)

44 IP in 5 starts, 0 ER and 1 UER

in his last start, he allowed a second-inning run and then in the 9th - 2 outs and no one on with a 5-1 lead, he allowed 2 walks and 2 singles before getting the last out in a 5-2 win.

I knew this because I attended almost every start Gooden made that season - sit behind home plate, and just laugh at all the pathetic foul balls feebly sent backwards by overmatched mortals.

deGrom is incredible, and big-time bonus points for his offense - deGrom has allowed 4 ER this season yet has 6 RBI himself - it's like he alone outscores his opponents.

but though Gooden got screwed bigtime twice to start September, he pitched so many innings that the bullpen couldn't blow it for him.

I may go to my 2nd deGrom 2021 start this weekend, and it's awesome.

but full disclosure? Doc in 1985 was more amazing (so far).
   23. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: June 21, 2021 at 11:19 PM (#6025671)
deGrom pitched pretty well today after sticky stuff checks.

I agree that the main "knock" on him is that he doesn't go that deep into games. I mean, nobody does these days, but he's only had two complete games and 1 shutout during his epic run over the past four years.

For comparison, Pedro, who also sometimes got dinged for pitching fewer innings than some of his contemporaries, averaged 5 CG and 2 SHO per season during his peak from 1997-2003.

That's all ok; I'd rather Jake stay healthy and it's hard to argue with the results. But it does partially explain the lack of decisions and wins during his recent run.
   24. The Duke Posted: June 21, 2021 at 11:29 PM (#6025672)
I don’t have a problem with Degrom but his feat will be nowhere near gibsons. Degrom is a half-game pitcher. Let me see him do what he’s doing for 7-9 innings every night and then we can have that conversation. Having said that, Gibson was a terrible inning 1 pitcher so he quite likely could never do what Degrom is doing. I’m guessing many of his earned runs were given up in the first inning.
   25. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: June 21, 2021 at 11:48 PM (#6025674)

I agree Gibson's feat is more impressive, but Gibson wouldn't be going 7-9 every night if he were pitching today. It's just a different game.
   26. Walt Davis Posted: June 22, 2021 at 12:06 AM (#6025675)
But the "problem" with Gibson's achievement is that context. The lgERA (i.e. accounting for his context) was a mere 2.89 -- Gibson's career ERA was 2.91 so in 1968 NL, the average pitcher was roughly normal Bob Gibson. He was 1st in shutouts by a mile but "just" 2nd in CG, 3rd in IP and t10th in GS. Of course he nearly lapped the NL field in pWAR. (deGrom is only 4th -- take it up with Sean.)

We'll of course never know what deGrom would have done in 68 but it's obvious that it didn't take a hugely talented pitcher in 1968 to throw a lot of innings at a sub-3 ERA, while only the very best pitchers today might touch that. Maybe deGrom would have broken under that workload and presumably Felix Millan and Glenn Beckert would have eaten into his K totals a bit but I'm willing to bet he'd have had crazy numbers in 1968 too ... not necessarily Gibson crazy but crazy.
   27. Howie Menckel Posted: June 22, 2021 at 12:26 AM (#6025676)
that's a fair counterpoint - those 155 to 160 pound middle infielders didn't exact cause any worry for Gibson BITD.

and neither did the many catchers who couldn't hit for power, nor the many whippet center fielders.
   28. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: June 22, 2021 at 05:49 AM (#6025678)
Walt, my only point is that aces who can go deep into games are inherently more valuable to their team than those who don't. That's not to "blame" today's 5 or 6 inning starters, who have to face #8 hitters who are capable of going deep, even if overall they're ten times as likely to strike out. There are very few Ray Oylers or Horace Clarkes on today's MLB rosters, with Mendoza line BAs and only 2 or 3 homers a year.

But it's just a simple fact. A pitcher who can save his team's bullpen 80-100+ innings of work each year is going to put less stress on that bullpen. It might even allow one or two of those roster spots to be given over to an offensive player or two who could give his manager more options in late inning crisis situations. Today's rosters have replaced these marginal utility players with a surplus of flame throwing relief specialists, but most of those back of the bullpen pitchers aren't going to give you the sort of reliability in the late innings that a Gibson or an '85 Gooden or even a Pedro could. There are only so many Kimbrels and Loaisigas to go around; the Blue Jays can tell you that.
   29. The Duke Posted: June 22, 2021 at 07:51 AM (#6025679)
There’s about 85 players out of 320 with averages broken.220 now and it’s more like 95 out of 290 in 1968. Using 100 qualified at bats. It’s not wildly different at the bottom. At the top, it’s much different
   30. TomH Posted: June 22, 2021 at 07:59 AM (#6025680)

   31. TomH Posted: June 22, 2021 at 08:03 AM (#6025681)
JOStNick is of course correct that more innings = more value. The question here of most dominant season, tho, is a bit different. Gisbon's 1968 is not held up as a possible GOAT season because it was the most valuable; after all, Wilbur Wood in 1971 and Steve Carlton in 1972 accumulated more WAR (mostly thru more innings!); Denny McLain that same year had 9 more wins. It is instead the dominance (ERA) in combination with innings (305, not bad, 3rd in the NL that year) that makes Gibby's 68 historical.

deGrom so far does not even lead MLB pitchers in WAR; which says that between his injuries and short starts, the super-shiny ERA needs discounting.

If deGrom can get his IP in the top 10 in the NL and keep his ERA less than one-third of the league, we may look back at his year at least like we do Pedro's 2000.

   32. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: June 22, 2021 at 08:22 AM (#6025684)

At the bottom of the lineup, batting averages now may be roughly equivalent now to what they were in 1968. You found the numbers and there's no disputing that.

But my point about those hitters wasn't their BA, but the threat they posed, however slight, to turn a game around with one pitch. How many #7, 8, and 9 hitters today have hit 10 or 15 home runs in a season, compared to hitters in those bottom 3 lineup positions in 1968? Since the overall HR/G rate is now roughly double what it was in 1968, it wouldn't surprise me if the garbage end of today's lineups require a lot more attention from de Grom than their 1968 counterparts did from Gibson.



Good point, and as is so often the case, rankings come down to a matter of definition. On one level, there's never been a more dominant pitcher in history than Mariano Rivera. On another level, it's hard to top the way Carlton in 1972 essentially transformed the Phillies from the 1962 Mets into the 1927 Yankees.** But Mo wasn't a starter, and Carlton's 185 ERA+ has been topped many times in many different eras. You can take just about any dominant season and make a case for why others may rank above it.

** Carlton: 27-10 / .730. Phillies without Carlton having the decision: 32-97 /.269.
   33. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: June 22, 2021 at 08:36 AM (#6025687)
deGrom so far does not even lead MLB pitchers in WAR; which says that between his injuries and short starts, the super-shiny ERA needs discounting.

He doesn’t lead in WAR because BB-Ref gives Zach Wheeler a huge boost for playing in front of the terrible Phillies’ defense, and penalizes deGrom for playing in front of the Mets’ strong D (never would have thought I’d say those words this season).

Wheeler’s ERA is below his FIP so I think it’s very questionable whether his defense has actually hurt him by 0.47 runs per 9 IP.

On Fangraphs, deGrom leads in the FIP-based WAR, 4.2 to 3.4, and the RA9-based WAR (the one I prefer to look at), 4.4 to 4.0.

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