Eh, it'll be nice not having an offensive black hole at the position for the first time in five years.

I notice Contreras had -4 Defensive Runs Saved last year, but there were eleven regular catchers (500+ innings caught) who were worse. So he's not bottom-of-the barrel bad defensively. (Molina ranked sixth with +9 DRS, and Knizner was tied for 35th out of 40 with -9).

Contreras is a guy who I disliked when he was a Cub, let's see if he can win me over as a Cardinal. A few 3-4 WAR seasons---as he's done every full season so far---would do the trick.

Last year, there were 29 catchers with at least 300 PA, and 13 of those 29 had less than 1.0 bWAR (neither Molina nor Knizner reached 300 PA, but Molina had 0.2 bWAR in 270 PA, and Knizner had 0.8 in 293 PA). Just having a not-terrible catcher is a good way to get a jump on the competition.

Seems reasonable. Guy's a top-10 C.

More than happy with this signing, I was hoping 3 for 70, was willing to accept 4 for 85, so 5 for 87.5 is not bad. The last year is just deferred money.

Who catches for the Cubs now? Yan Gomes and P.J. Higgins?

The Cubs are one of a few teams that have talked about trading with the A's for Sean Murphy. The Cardinals had also talked about getting Murphy.

Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!!!

Yan Gomes and P.J. Higgins?

And maybe Miguel Amaya if he can get healthy. I'm sure they'll sign/trade for somebody to split the job with Gomes. But C is not likely to be a happy spot for the Cubs this year.

I'm a bit surprised by this, Contreras just doesn't seem a very Cardinals-y kind of signing. I assume the plan is about 50 games at DH and 80 at C. I wonder if Wainwright will have a personal C.

Last year, there were 29 catchers with at least 300 PA, and 13 of those 29 had less than 1.0 bWAR (neither Molina nor Knizner reached 300 PA, but Molina had 0.2 bWAR in 270 PA, and Knizner had 0.8 in 293 PA).

One quick way to get a handle on a position like C using b-r is to go to the NL (AL, MLB) summary page and go down a few tables to the Wins above Avg by position table. Last year the Cubs were 7th in MLB with 1.1 and the Cards were 20th at -1.4. Hover on the result and it gives you a PA (but not WAR) breakdown showing Contreras with slightly less than half the Cubs' PAs.

Pitchers have been signing for nearly $10M/WAR. Contreras seems like a safe bet to deliver 9 WAR over the contract.

If the Cardinals fail to make the playoffs, no matter how well Contreras plays, he will get the blame. In fact, if Contreras has a good year and the Cardinals do not succeed as a team, the (silly) narrative will give Molina more HoF votes!

One quick way to get a handle on a position like C using b-r

Thanks, Walt---I never noticed this content before!

Any word on who offered 4 years to get the Cardinals up to 5?

Any word on who offered 4 years to get the Cardinals up to 5?

I wouldn't be surprised if they just decided to go in, after weighing the option of waiting and maybe missing out on Murphy or having to give up prospects for Murphy. Oli really seemed to have liked Contreras. (And I love that Oli is at the winter meetings and meeting with free agents) Rumors were he was going to get 4 for 85 (or at least that was some estimates) If the Cardinals were willing to even consider that, then the fifth year just seemed like something to make the player happy.

This is one of those deals where I wonder if the Cubs had just gone to Willson after 2018 or 2019 with something like 3 arb years, 3 FA years for $60, does Willson say yes?

Anyway ... the b-r comps are often not good but these seem OK, all in the 900s, generally good-hitting Cs although Contreras is more athletic than nearly all of them. And a few had already hit some bumps by 30. Nevertheless

Nokes: not good
Romano: not good
Tettleton: 13 WAR, solid thru 35
Napoli: 8 WAR but no catching
Triandos: not good
Salty: very much not good, I thought he'd aged better than that
Lieberthal: 4 WAR
Grandal: solid 2020, strong 2021, atrocious 2022. His 2021 was so freakazoid I suspect he's done. Anyway, 3 WAR officially.
Wieters!! not good
Bailey: 7 WAR

So I'm not sure he is such a good bet for 9 WAR. Again the caveats he's more athletic than these guys and I think only Tettleton , Napoli and Bailey were in his range for 28-30 so that list is hardly an unavoidable destiny. He's always been something of a poor man's Realmuto which would be a fine outcome (but Realmuto one year younger at signing).

I think it's a perfectly fine deal but probably best if preserving his bat is their #1 priority -- i.e. lots of DH time and get him out from behind the plate at the first sign of decrepitude (which might already be too late). He's a very good baseball player but not a great C, already a bit fragile. It's almost unfortunate the Cubs moved him off 3B all those years ago -- if the bat had still developed, I think he'd have been a fine one (or 2B or LF) with probably a longer career than he's gonna have.

So Kyle Hendricks is the last man standing from the 2016 squad. Turns out the Cubs resigned none of the bright young position players that came up from 2014-16.

This is the kind of thing that will really turn fans irrevocably against Hoyer if it turns out well for the Cards. In the last year and a half, he's kicked off a long rebuild that he swore wasn't going to be necessary, and sold off all his stars, and watched his big free agent acquisitions from last year underwhelm. Watching Contreras go to the Cards and kick ass is going to be a big ask if that's how it turns out happening, especially because the contract really isn't all that cumbersome, they don't have a really obviously great plan to replace him, and they've spent the whole offseason so far telling us that money wasn't going to be an issue.

Reading the cubs fans and I saw three themes.

1. The defensive issues popped up when Ross showed up - those two might not get along
2: he's a terrible base runner
3. He's a solid performer who will be missed

Terrible baserunner? Can't say I ever really noticed, but could be.

It remains an open question, though, what exactly Ross brings to the table as a manager.

Ugh, sorry to see him go... and Kyle stands alone.

Though, given the hole - what's Tim Federowicz up to? Maybe he'll be back.

Terrible baserunner? Can't say I ever really noticed, but could be.

Yes, he's overly aggressive and gets thrown out trying to take extra bases quite often. When it works it's great, but he just isn't as fast as he thinks he is. I don't think it's a *huge* deal, but it was more prevalent the last couple of years.

1. The defensive issues popped up when Ross showed up - those two might not get along

I can't speak about whether they get along or not, but the first part isn't true. I mean, he moved to C later in his minors career, so he wasn't ever considered great back there. He is pretty athletic, and has a great arm, so I think maybe people think he has the tools to be better. He's never been considered a great receiver and there's always been questions about how he handles pitchers (Lester moved to him when Ross retired, but I don't think he ever liked throwing to Willson; Darvish eventually had Caratini as his personal catcher, etc). For whatever reason, the Cubs have talked the last couple of years about wanting more of a defensive catcher than offensive. Whether that was veiled criticism of Contreras or not, I'm not sure.

This deal is pretty good, and I'm annoyed by it.

Terrible baserunner? Can't say I ever really noticed, but could be.

Led the Cubs in "outs on bases" (baserunning plays not including caught stealing/pickoffs) each of the last three years.

His 10 OOB last year would have been 20% of the Cardinals' entire team total (49), and his 11 OOB in 2021 would have been 30% of the Cardinals' team total (37).

Terrible baserunner? Can't say I ever really noticed, but could be.

Yes, he's overly aggressive and gets thrown out trying to take extra bases quite often.

Interesting on the outs on bases noted by salvomania, but Rbase has no issue with him. -8 career Rbase and for a catcher (2016 to 2022 with at least 500 games) that's pretty middle of the pack. May be a terrible baserunner overall, but seems about average for a catcher. Although the OOB may override this, not familiar with that metric.

Led the Cubs in "outs on bases" (baserunning plays not including caught stealing/pickoffs) each of the last three years.

His 10 OOB last year would have been 20% of the Cardinals' entire team total (49), and his 11 OOB in 2021 would have been 30% of the Cardinals' team total (37).

OOB is pretty useless, though, without knowing how many bases his aggressive tendencies have gained. Which I could probably look up, but I won't, because even if he's truly terrible ... well, he's your problem now.

I'm sure he could circle the bases twice by the time Yadi got to third. :-) But those OOB numbers don't look good -- still, do you want the guy who can go 1st to 3rd on a single but gets thrown out more often than he should or the guy who's strictly station to station under all circumstances so never gets thrown out.

I feel like his most common problem was trying to stretch singles into doubles. The data can correct me if I'm wrong.

I would concur on Moses' read absent data proving otherwise... Willy *is* fast *for a catcher*, but he thinks he's Javy out there. He was always the bizarro Bryzzo - both of whom were good baserunners that took extra bases *when it was a smart thing*. Willy has a bit of a "run until they tag you out" little leaguer in him.

So it's come out what the A's wanted from the Cardinals for Murphy. Lars Nootbar, Brendan Donovan and a power young arm (Cardinals number three prospect)... I think that might have lit a fire under Mo to make this signing, because that is a ridiculous trade.

#25 ... who knows what the expectation is but 23 of his 56 OOBs have been at 2B. He's had 14 at 3B alhough 6 of those were in 2017 and another 15 at home which I assume are mostly the 3B coaches mistake -- or maybe a lot of those are on GBs while he's at 3B. He also has 4 OOBs at first -- I'm not sure how you do that, I guess trying for second but trying to get back. Still, he gets tossed out on the bases about 9 times a year wich does seem like a lot. Javy looks to be around 7-8; Realmuto, a very good running C, looks to be around 4-5.

So yes, seems like a lot are stretching singles.

Nice players tribune article by Contreras.

In the article he says some nice things, and says some nice things about his former team. And it's a reminder how some of these kids actually grew up.

All I’ve known in baseball since I was a teenager has been the Chicago Cubs.

The Cubs’ baseball academy in Venezuela was a five-minute drive from my house in Puerto Cabello. I was only 16 when I signed with Chicago. Then, within a year, I’m on a plane to the U.S. I was barely old enough to drive a car. I didn’t know any English. All I knew was baseball. And the Cubs.

That was my world.

Contreras is 30. He signed at 16. He has spent half his life in the Cubs organization.

As frustrating as it is to see him sign with the Cards, I'm happy he is signing with an organization that will likely maximize his career. Great for him.

His first big league PA.

I'm glad he was a part of that 2016 team... It wouldn't sit right if he wasn't.

I met a traveller from an antique land,
Who said—“Two vast and trunkless legs of stone
Stand in the desert. . . . Near them, on the sand,
Half sunk a shattered visage lies, whose frown,
And wrinkled lip, and sneer of cold command,
Tell that its sculptor well those passions read
Which yet survive, stamped on these lifeless things,
The hand that mocked them, and the heart that fed;
And on the pedestal, these words appear:
My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings;
Look on my Works, ye Mighty, and despair!
Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that colossal Wreck, boundless and bare
The lone and level sands stretch far away.”

So Kyle Hendricks is the last man standing from the 2016 squad. Turns out the Cubs resigned none of the bright young position players that came up from 2014-16.

deGrom was the last Met left who disemboweled the Cubs in 2015.

it gets late early in sports, just like Yogi said

Interesting on the outs on bases noted by salvomania, but Rbase has no issue with him. -8 career Rbase and for a catcher (2016 to 2022 with at least 500 games) that's pretty middle of the pack

Your problem is taking the Rbaser numbers at face value. They are hopelessly out of touch with reality, they SUCK which I've tied to explain before especially in regards to Campaneris who I feel is badly undervalued on both his base running and his defense. Im not sure if Rbaser just undervalues both bad runners and good runners or something else. It seems to be basically good at counting SB/CS and turning that into runs, but when it comes to OOB, BT and XB things get really wonky. For example you can compare CLemente's Rbaser to Ernie Lombardi's (LOL) and ask yourself if they make sense.

still, do you want the guy who can go 1st to 3rd on a single but gets thrown out more often than he should or the guy who's strictly station to station under all circumstances so never gets thrown out.

Well Walt, your the statistics guy. Is this really some mystery to you? Isnt this a simple math problem of calculating the value of taking an extra base vs making an OOB?

Still, he gets tossed out on the bases about 9 times a year wich does seem like a lot.

Im getting a slightly different number (21 over the past two years) but help me out here Walt. Cause we're gonna walk through the math, and I KNOW you are better at this than me so here goes.

Seriously, you are better at the math so please check it.

LETS START WITH THE VALUE OF GAINING AN EXTRA BASE

If you go strictly by the chance of scoring and looking at the base/out table (I can give a link later) the chance of scoring from 1b is .28 for all situations (.42 w/ no outs .27: one out; .13 two outs). Similarly the value of being on second is .4 runs and the value of being on 3b is .6 runs.

Whats the break even rate on stealing second?

Going strictly by the base/out matrix and looking at the gain in chance of scoring its something like 75%. A gain of 17% scoring (.17 runs) vs a loss of 0.5 runs if CS (.23 runs value of an out + .28 runs for the loss a runner at 1b and his chance of scoring)

RIght so you take .5 DIVIDE BY (.17 + .5) = 75% break even rate for stealing 2b


BUT WAIT THAT MAKES NO SENSE. Because the MLB rate has never been that high (except for maybe last season) so what is going on? Is All base stealing stoopid or something else. Well the something else means a SB is probably worth more than 0.17 runs because of LEVERAGE . I.e. players are stealing more often in tight games so instead of the linear weight of 0.17 runs the actual Win Expectancy is probably changing more like 20% at least for the average base stealer.

If you're talking Maury WIlls or Ricky Henderson or Ty CObb then yes you probably have to figure the break even rate is 75% because those guys would still in every situation.

And 70% break even rate reflects the historic MLB rate. So I have to assume the break even rate is more like 70% because of leverage.

So lets re do that: the value of a SB (non Ricky! division) is 0.2 runs; the value of CS is -.5 runs. OK? Feel free to critique that.

Lets state the general rule for breaking even:

(Value out + Value of Lost runner) DIVIDE BY Value of Gaining Base + (Value of Out + Value of Lost Runner)

VALUE OF TAKING THE XTRA BASE (XB in baseball reference parlance)

OK so if you run the numbers for taking 3b on a single the break even rate is like 75% and for taking home its more like 80%.

If you go with strict value of advancing from 2b to 3b its like a gain of 0.2 runs for every out situation, but you dont want to risk making an out at 3b with two outs do you? So most of the time you take third when its 0 outs or 1 out. So lets make the value of Gaining 3b as .22 runs. Plug in the numbers:

BREAK EVEN RATE OF GETTING TO THIRD


(0.23 + 0.4) DIVIDE BY 0.22 + (.23 +0.4) = 74%

YOu can do the same thing and get about 80% break even rate for taking home.

OK so lets then assume a 75% break even rate for all of these base runner advances: XB (taking an extra base on a hit) and BT (moving up on a passed ball WP etc), since some of these occur at 2b, Im gonna assume something like 75% break even rate.

OK EVeryONE WITH ME SO FAR?

Walt, you still there?

OK now lets take a look at W Contreras and possibly kick RBaser in the ass while we're at it.

Im going to use the last two seasons of Contreras because: a) his base running is similar and b) small sample size etc etc. NOTE Contreras averages 75% playing time and we'll get back to that in the end.

CALCULATE XB (moving up an extra base on a single or double)

MLB rate: 40% Contreras rate: 45%

Contreras chances (last two seasons remember?) 88.
88 x .45 = 4 bases ABOVE MLB AVERAGE in two seasons

Contreras: 2 bases per season above MLB avg, or .45 runs

CALCULATE BT (moving up on PB, WP etc)

the average BT is 150/team or 17/player in a full season. you can look up here: (https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2021-baserunning-batting.shtml

Contreras BT (two seasons) 32. But he only plays 75% so :

MLB avg in two seasons for 75% playing time
17/season x 2 seasons x .75 = 25 BT

Contreras 7 BT above average in two seasons, or
3.5 BT/season above average, or
.8 runs

Is Walt still here? Hello Walt?

CALCULATE SB/CS

Contreras last two seasons: 9/6
9 x .2 MINUS 6 X .5 = -1.2 Runs over two seasons
-.6 runs/season

CALCULATE OOB

Contreras 21 OOB last two seasons at 75% PT
MLB average 5 OOB per player.season
in two seasons at 75% PT thats 7.5 OOB mlb average

Contreras made 13.5 OOB worse than average in two seasons or
7 OOB/season
VALUE of an OOB: -0.75 runs (estimate based on average of losing runner at 2b/3b plus 0.23 runs for the out)


TOTAL VALUE OF CONTRERAS OOB: 7 X .75 RUNS=
-5.25 runs/season

SUM OF ALL BASERUNNING SKILLS (not counting DPs) for CONTRERAS

XB 0.45 runs
BT 0.8 runs
SB/CS -.6 runs
OOB -5.25 runs
TOTAL: -4.5 runs/season

COMPARE THIS TO RBaser:
gives totals of -2/-1 for two seasons

WALT! DONT DIE ON ME. DONT YOU DARE DIE ON ME!

So you can see how far off RBaser is when it comes to rating bad base runners. Ive done a few of these calculations and for bad baserunners -5 runs a year is about the max, but think about it guys like Ernie Lombardi are probably over estimated by 0.5 WAR a year thats a lot.

NOTES: Here is the base/out matrix if you still cant find it:

http://www.tangotiger.net/re24.html

CAVEAT: leverage plays a huge role in evaluating TOOTBLANs and by same token baserunner kills. Almost all the base runner kills occur in close games so while the linear wt of an out at 3rd might be 0.75 runs, the value in Win Expectancy is probably a bit larger I suspect. But I havent had a chance to run the numbers. it would be interesting go through Contreras's entire season and calculate the WE for every out he made on the base paths. I suspect the negative value I found maybe an undercount.

Man I just love Rbaser discussions

From an earlier post made back in Sept 2021:

name............year...SB/CS.....Rbaser
Ernie Lombardi, 1943.... 1/2.......0
Ernie Lombardi, 1936.... 1/1...... 1

CLemente, ......1959.....2/3..... +1
CLemente,...... 1968 ....2/3......-1


33 year old CLemente who's still covering RF, still 3 years away from WS MVP is slower than 35 year old Ernie Lombardi, legendary slowest man in baseball. Are you Shitting ME?