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Sunday, November 13, 2022

Sources: Astros, Rafael Montero reach 3-year, $34.5M deal

Reliever Rafael Montero agreed to a three-year, $34.5 million contract that will bring the right-hander back to the Houston Astros’ dominant bullpen a week after the team rode its pitching staff to a World Series title, sources familiar with the deal told ESPN.

Montero, 32, thrived in his first full season with the Astros, posting a 2.37 ERA in 68⅓ innings and allowing just three home runs while striking out 73. The deal came together on a transformative Friday for the Astros, who saw general manager James Click reject a one-year contract from owner Jim Crane and leave the organization.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 13, 2022 at 11:05 PM | 11 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: astros, rafael montero

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1. John Reynard Posted: November 14, 2022 at 06:50 AM (#6105433)

This seems high for a guy who has not exactly been a paragon of consistency over his career. But, its not my money, so, whatever.

2. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 14, 2022 at 03:04 PM (#6105487)

This seems high for a guy who has not exactly been a paragon of consistency over his career. But, its not my money, so, whatever.

I'd say it's flat out nuts. This guy has had one good full season in his life (2022) and 29 good innings in 2019. That's it. Rafael Montero is more likely to be out of MLB than an elite RP in 2025.

3. John Reynard Posted: November 14, 2022 at 03:24 PM (#6105491)

I'd say it's flat out nuts. This guy has had one good full season in his life (2022) and 29 good innings in 2019. That's it. Rafael Montero is more likely to be out of MLB than an elite RP in 2025.

I mean, if you look at his deeper analytical stuff, he appears to have genuinely been put together nicely by Houston. His 4-seamer and sinker complement each other so that he's getting a lot of Ks while being hard to square up and get barrels or hard hit balls against. He even has both-ways breaking pitches now since his sinker and change-up dive one way and the slider moves the other way.

I wouldn't pay him remotely this much. But, Houston has been mostly good at gauging this stuff in the past and decided too. I'm not a fan of Houston, nor do I pay the bills for the Astros, so, I mean, I guess I'm happy for Montero that they paid him this much. But, yeah, if I was rooting for the Astros I'd be like "wow, that money could have been used to do X or Y". If they can fix Montero like this, why can't they just go get Shawn Armstrong and 3 other guys like him and see which one of them (or maybe even more than 1) is the next guy they fix?

4. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 14, 2022 at 03:37 PM (#6105494)

5. cHiEf iMpaCt oFfiCEr JE

Posted: November 14, 2022 at 03:42 PM (#6105495)

Who is the interim GM while potential replacements are being interviewed?

6. Walt Davis Posted: November 14, 2022 at 11:16 PM (#6105567)

Is this why Click left or why he was let go? :-)

Too bad the Jesuits didn't teach me to throw 99 rather than math and science and writing and stuff.

7. John Reynard Posted: November 15, 2022 at 04:20 AM (#6105585)

Montero's 2022 success was heavily dependent on career lows in HR-rate, and BABIP, and an above average strand rate.

I'm not saying he performed at 2.10ish ERA level. He did perform at 2.70ish ERA level in 2022 however. Again, If I was running the Astros, I'd have signed 4-6 of the "hard-throwing retread guys who are 28/29 now" instead of Montero and felt totally OK saving 90% of this spending and releasing many of them in spring, being happy if you got 1-2 guys out of it.

If the Astros have a secret sauce on pitching (and they might), why spend so much on a semi-proven guy, even with good peripherals. But, you're overstating that it was all about strand and HR rate and BABIP....unless you mean he couldn't afford to have abysmal bad luck (or something akin) with BABIP like in 2021.

1/15 makes more sense to me than what was signed. Montero might have taken it too.

8. Walt Davis Posted: November 15, 2022 at 01:37 PM (#6105647)

According to the "is Crane Jerry Jones" story, Crane personally negotiated this deal. I guess it's safe to say he's willing to spend ... probably also safe to say he's no Connie Mack.

9. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 15, 2022 at 01:48 PM (#6105650)

But, you're overstating that it was all about strand and HR rate and BABIP....unless you mean he couldn't afford to have abysmal bad luck (or something akin) with BABIP like in 2021.

His career BABIP is .323, so I'm not sure .350 was abysmal bad luck. His xFIP was 3.22, his Steamer projection is a 3.64 ERA. That's OK, but certainly not worth 3/35. It's about the 100th best RP with 50+ IP in 2022.

10. Astroenteritis Posted: November 15, 2022 at 05:40 PM (#6105685)

According to the "is Crane Jerry Jones" story, Crane personally negotiated this deal.

If true, this is not encouraging for Astros fans. Not a brilliant deal at all.

11. Tony S Posted: November 15, 2022 at 05:52 PM (#6105687)

Three years for a 32-year-old reliever with one outstanding year in his career?

Well, if the Astros are ditching analytics because reasons, they're not wasting any time.

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Sunday, November 13, 2022

Sources: Astros, Rafael Montero reach 3-year, $34.5M deal

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