Great trade for both

I'm not so sure it's a good trade for the Jays. And I'm not so sure it's not.

1. Is this an analytics trade? Varsho's unimpressive until you add up a bit above average here, a bit above average there and suddenly you've got a guy coming off a 5 WAR season at 25. If that's who he is, great trade for the Jays. And he makes them better for 2023. But if he's "Daulton Varsho?" then this is not a good trade, especially beyond 2023.

2. But when was the last time a current top 10 prpsoect was traded except as part of a deal for a superstar? Even when dealing for a Soto or whoever, teams are reluctant to include a top 10. That would seem to make this a great trade for the DBacks.

3. What is Gurriel doing in this deal? He's nothing special but he's above-average and he hits pretty well and he costs less than $6 M. With Kiermaier around, did they really need Varsho? Is Springer headed to LF? DH? Done? (Did he end up having surgery? What's the prognosis?)

4. Both have fine track records but this puts a good bit more faith in Kirk and Jansen than I think I'd have.

5. Of course that said, my knowledge of Moreno is nothing more than that he's highly regarded. Maybe the Jays don't think he'll be a star. I suppose we can borrow from Rickey (Branch) and say it's better to trade a prospect a year too early than a year too late.

My take is that the Jays wanted a 3rd C to go with Jansen/Kirk who could play other positions better than Moreno.

Is Varsho clearly better than Moreno as a C? Nope.

Is he LH and something the Jays need in their lineup at any position? Yep

Is he a good defensive OF on top of being able to be their 3rd C? Yep

Arizona needed to trade away some LH hitting OF, so, I mean, its a win for them too.

I have no idea why Gurriel is in the trade either. But, maybe TOR wanted to shed some salary.

My guess is the OF is Kiermaier in left, Varsho in center, and Springer in right most nights. Varsho sees some time behind the plate, Springer sees some time DHing, Kiermaier sees some time on the DL, and so I'd have kept Gurriel to fit those spots. But, eh....whatever.

Four years of control. Obviously betting that he had a breakout. Lot of teams trying to get better on defense with each move: padres have great defense, cubs going for defense with Bellinger/Swanson and dumping Contreras, Yankees picked up Bader last year. Strangely the cardinals are jettisoning defense and focusing on DH hitter types.

I don't think Varsho ever catches for the Jays, short of an emergency. Varsho is the starting cf starting in 2024

Four years of control. Obviously betting that he had a breakout.

His "beakout" was a .302 OBP. If you're betting on +20 defense in the OF, I think that's a lousy bet. True talent +20 defenders are very rare, especially in this age of low BIP. And that's a skill set that start declining in your early 20's. Giving up at top 10 prospect for him seems crazy.

I don't think Varsho ever catches for the Jays, short of an emergency. Varsho is the starting cf starting in 2024

I think he'll get 3-5 C appearances, mostly in late innings or something with a PH where he moves in from CF to C. But, maybe you don't PH for Kirk/Jansen much and that isn't right.

I agree he'll mostly be the CF.

I suspect Varsho will only catch in emergency situations - but those are few and far between. 1-2 games a year I figure even with Kirk DH'ing most nights. I expect the Jays will sign a glove first catcher to be in AAA as a backup, especially in the event of an injury.

Diamondbacks have gone high stakes before:

"July 31, 2019: Zac Gallen traded by the Miami Marlins to the Arizona Diamondbacks for Jazz Chisholm Jr."

Those two might be NL All-Star teammates for years.

and in looking the details up, I was reminded of this one:

"December 14, 2017: Zac Gallen traded by the St. Louis Cardinals with SANDY ALCANTARA, Daniel Castano and Magneuris Sierra to the Miami Marlins for Marcell Ozuna."

Gallen might be a player who, at a young age, was in two deals with other players who also became major stars.....

Very tough trade to evaluate due to the level of uncertainty on both sides

Can Varsho up his BA/OBP while maintaining power ? With the banning of the shift, that should help him in the BA department. I agree expecting a +20 fielder is a dicey proposition. But I'm pretty sure his true talent level is +10 for the next couple years. He's really pretty great out there. Catching days are done except emergency. Good clubhouse guy, grinder, plays the right way, yada yada yada. Cliche, but all true. Dbacks heart and hustle award winner. That stuff matters at least some. Never lets up, runs everything hard.

Moreno is very highly regarded of course, and has a 70 hit tool, a good arm, and will block pitches. But he still needs work on defense. A fractured thumb requiring surgery in July of 2021 seems to have sapped his power. Check out his ISO up through June 27, 2021 and then since that date. Cratered. Needs to regain the power of course to reach potential. I kinda doubt he lives up to his billing but Dbacks have NOBODY on depth chart behind Kelly at catcher, Kelly is gone in two years, and Kelly is not all that good anyway. So Dbacks have an extreme need, and got a guy Baseball America rates #3 prospect overall for Daulton Varsho. That doesn't happen.

Gurriel had Hamate surgery in October. Supposedly his power outage in 2022 was due to that. He's a good bounce back candidate. But he's a free agent after 2023, (Baseball reference is wrong, they have 2024, but Hazen confirmed 2023 tonight) That knda makes him teets on a bull unless you think he;'s going to be a difference maker on a 2023 Dbacks playoff squad. He won't be. Defense is poor. He's a good hitter...but he's not a difference maker for a squad like this.

But he's a free agent after 2023, (Baseball reference is wrong, they have 2024, but Hazen confirmed 2023 tonight)

I don’t think that’s right. Lourdes has played 5 MLB seasons, so he’d only be a free agent after the year if those were full seasons. He played 51 games in the minors in 2018, and 31 in 2019, so you’ve got him for 2 more years.

Varsho’s dad played in the major leagues. Under Canadian law, the Jays have to at least try to acquire him.

His "beakout" was a .302 OBP. If you're betting on +20 defense in the OF, I think that's a lousy bet.

well for a random OFer I guess you're right. But putting Varsho's last two seasons in the OF together (163 games total)

He's +19 runs from OAA alone (+16 last year)
seems about 5% above average at base runner holds. Say another 2.5 runs over an entire season
probably 3 more runs above average for baserunner kills.

He could be worth 25 runs defensively at least at this point in time.

Also seems to have a cannon arm at C, throwing out 1/3 of baserunners past two years.

Im guessing he's closer to a 5 WAR player (4.9 last year) at this pt. given he'll be only 26 next season.

well for a random OFer I guess you're right. But putting Varsho's last two seasons in the OF together (163 games total)

He's +19 runs from OAA alone (+16 last year)
seems about 5% above average at base runner holds. Say another 2.5 runs over an entire season
probably 3 more runs above average for baserunner kills.

He could be worth 25 runs defensively at least at this point in time.

At 26.5 he's already in decline defensively. The number of +25 OFs in history is probably counted on two hands.

The number of +25 OFs in history is probably counted on two hands.

So not Pete Gray then.

Merry Christmas. I'll be here all week!

His "beakout" was a .302 OBP.

But ML average was just 312 so this is "below-average OBP" not "this guy is a disaster OBP." His walk rate was about league-average, he had a lousy BABIP (which has been true for his career to date).

ML OBP in 1968 was 299. The Reds pulled off a team OBP of 320, led by Rose's 391. They didn't even have Morgan yet while his predecessor Tommy Helms had just 12 BB in 526 PA. (Easily the worst of his career but he never walked much.)

EDIT: For example, Devon White had a 319 OBP in a 334 league ... nobody complained. Armas was all the way down at 287, people did complain but he had a solid career with a couple of big years.

he had a lousy BABIP (which has been true for his career to date).

I saw that too. What do you make of that? His LD% was near league average no?

Nothing much. It's only 1000 PA, 630 BIP ... that's maybe one standard deviation. It's also fairly common for TTO hitters to have low BABIP (just look at McGwire ... Bonds too and he didn't even K). For Varsho, EV is a bit low, LD is a bit low, FB higher than average -- that should add up to lower than average BABIP.

Fangraphs probably records this somewhere but my xmas present to all of you ...

in 2022, MLB had a 236 BABIP on GBs, 101 on FBs and 618 on LDs.

For his career, Varsho has 256 GB, 213 FBip (total FB - HR) and 143 LDip (total LD - HR). So his xBABIP (using 2022 MLB) is 278; actual is 272. So he's 3-4 hits shy of expectation, easily within random.

fun stuff, thanks for that Walt.

WOuld the shift ban help him more than others? It seems he's hitting LDs right at people if I understand your post correctly. He's batting .143 on LDs? HOw is that possible?

#12Rally

100% cfmd FA after 2023. I was on the call with Hazen when he was asked.

Must have been something written into his contact. He definitely will not have 6 years service time after 2023. But that does happen, like Robert Suarez coming back from Japan, pitching one year, and becoming a full free agent.

I thought I knew what "trading from surplus" meant - but trading the best one isn't the way I assume that it works.

Teams tend to know their own prospects best. So Toronto should know what it had/didn't have.

Also, the dbacks think they are good at developing good def catchers. I read a long article about Kelly where he said arizona completely changed his def approach after Cards deal and that he improved a lot. Maybe they have a catcher-whisperer on staff.

At 26.5 he's already in decline defensively.

Probably and yet you seem to vastly overstating things. Here is what I found on aging with respect to defensive value:


https://www.sportsinfosolutions.com/2020/05/08/a-closer-look-at-defensive-aging-curves/

"....a typical player who peaked with 5 Runs Saved in their age 25 season could be expected to see that number decrease to 3 Runs Saved by their age 30 season, and to 0 by their age 34 season. "

He's probably at his peak now. Very likely. And yet he has years to go before his presumably excellent defense in CF wont make him above average. THe best ones seem to survive out there to age 32 or so. WIllie Mays being a very rare exception.

He's probably at his peak now. Very likely. And yet he has years to go before his presumably excellent defense in CF wont make him above average. THe best ones seem to survive out there to age 32 or so. WIllie Mays being a very rare exception.

Merry Christmas!

Why are we assuming Varsho is among the elite defensive CFs of all time? He has one season of OF defense. That's 1/3 of the sample we need to make a semi-reliable estimate. He's probably more likely to be a +10 CF than a +20 given the sample size.

He's batting .143 on LDs? HOw is that possible?

No, he has hit 143 LDip in his career. His BABIP on LDs is 601. His BABIP "problem" is too many FBs, not enough GBs and LDs.

Some fans are really addicted to prospect porn aren't they?
Jays 3 catchers...
1) Kirk: All-Star, 3.8 fWAR, 129 wRC+, signed the same month as Moreno, FanGraphs rated him +8.8 on defense last year
2) Jansen: 140 wRC+ last year, 98 lifetime, projected 120 for 2023, solid on defense, 2.6 fWAR in just 72 games last year
3) Moreno: 113 wRC+ last year (73 PA), projected 111 for 2023, projected to be at 2.1 fWAR in 2023, expand to 150 games you get 4.2 fWAR (not happening).

So basically Moreno's projection suggests he could be as good as Kirk or Jansen. For a playoff contender you go with the 'has done it' over 'might do it' 100 times out of 100 unless you are Tampa where budget is everything.

If Moreno stayed in Toronto it is safe to say he'd have been in Buffalo instead for a big part of the year. You don't waste a 2-4 WAR guy in AAA, you trade him for another 4 WAR guy - which the Jays did. Varsho is 7.1 fWAR over 283 games = 3.8 per 150 games (a reasonable thing to shoot for if he stays in the OF, especially LF). Having 3 high end defenders in the OF is a massive luxury few teams can picture. It'll be interesting to see if Berrios and Gausman both have major improvements (over 1 run in ERA) this year. That is how big this OF shift could be - going from 2 ugly ones in Gurriel & Hernandez with Tapia getting far too much time (very ugly) to KK and Varsho. Varsho doesn't need to be Willie Mays out there for this to work, above average will be a massive improvement and provide far more wins to the Jays than having Moreno in AAA would.

Some fans are really addicted to prospect porn aren't they?


So basically Moreno's projection suggests he could be as good as Kirk or Jansen. For a playoff contender you go with the 'has done it' over 'might do it' 100 times out of 100 unless you are Tampa where budget is everything.

I think the point is not that you shouldn't trade Moreno, it's that you shouldn't trade at top 10 prospect unless you get an established star. Much better players than Varsho have been traded for much worse prospect packages than Moreno + some lottery tickets.

Why are we assuming Varsho is among the elite defensive CFs of all time? He has one season of OF defense. That's 1/3 of the sample we need to make a semi-reliable estimate. He's probably more likely to be a +10 CF than a +20 given the sample size.

you seem so sure of yourself on this issue. I defy you to find one OFer who produced 20 DRS in the same time period as Varsho (163 games over 2 years, 19 DRS) who wasnt thought of as elite.

GO ahead. I mean if you think those numbers are more likely a random aberration then you should be able to find some OFer who lucked into 20 DRS.

How often do top catching prospects get traded? I wonder if thr attrition rate is so high that teams don't value them the same way baseball America does

Not often, but the Jays did it both ways with the same guy...
Dec 2009: traded Roy Halladay for Travis d'Arnaud (and others)
Dec 2012: traded d'Arnaud (and others) for RA Dickey (and others)

d'Arnaud peaked at #17 BA pre-2012, #6 on MLB.com pre-2013. That is a pretty highly rated prosect behind the plate, traded twice before reaching the majors. Yet his total bWAR is just 7.2 over 10 years.

Prospects are a crapshoot - an educated one, but still risky.

How often do top catching prospects get traded? I wonder if thr attrition rate is so high that teams don't value them the same way baseball America does

Honestly I have no idea, but Jesus Montero comes to mind.

(1) the trade makes a ton of sense for both parties

(2) except for the inclusion of Gurriel

Gurriel is needed by the Jays. Neither Kiermaier nor Springer have clean health records, so much - perhaps most - of the season there is a need for an everyday OF, especially a RHB to platoon with KK and/or spell Varsho. Right now the backup plan is excess IF like Merrifield and Biggio and that's fine for a plan B/C but not a plan A.

Meanwhile, the D-Backs are overflowing with young OF/DH that need to play frequently so they can see what they have for the next half decade. Corbin, Thomas, Garrett, McCarthy, Pavin, Beer, Kyle Lewis; or they could put Marte there to give reps to Kennedy or Rivera in the IF. Gurriel is likely better than all of them for 2023, but he's gone in a year and there's an opportunity cost to not letting the kids play.

Of that list, all except Lewis and Garrett bat left handed, and Garrett was cut and is now a Washington National. Smith, Beer, and Lewis all strike me as pretty fungible. While Moreno is the main piece, I can see why Arizona liked Lourdes as a throw in. If the OF/DH regular group is Corbin/Thomas/McCarthy/Lourdes (in whatever is the best defensive alignment) that makes them a little less lefty heavy. Assuming Lourdes plays around his 2.5 WAR established level (avg last 2 years) and they aren’t in contention he would likely fetch a decent prospect at the deadline.

For Arizona the deal definitely hinges on how well Moreno pans out, but getting Lourdes as a throw in seems like a decent idea to me

Oh, and don’t you hate pants?

...but he's gone in a year and there's an opportunity cost to not letting the kids play.

People keep repeating this like its a well established truth but really? Are there any studies suggesting this?

you seem so sure of yourself on this issue. I defy you to find one OFer who produced 20 DRS in the same time period as Varsho (163 games over 2 years, 19 DRS) who wasnt thought of as elite.

GO ahead. I mean if you think those numbers are more likely a random aberration then you should be able to find some OFer who lucked into 20 DRS.

I'm sure of nothing. I think he could be anywhere from a +0 to a +20 fielder based on what we know so far. But as to your other question.

Alfonso Soriano, 2006-7. Reed Johnson 2005-6. Nick Markakis 2008. Hunter Pence 2009. Denard Span 2012. Mike Trout 2012. Gerardo Parra 2013. Daniel Nava 2014. Adam Eaton 2016. Jacoby Jones 2018. All gaudy DRS that were never even close to repeated.

Several of those do players do work for your point. So yes you have a point. Not all of those work and some are questionable.

Did you do a complete survey for recent years? I dont know if you have a subscription or what that you could do a search query.

I'll get back when I have more time to discuss the rest. Great discussion thanks for your input.

Several of those do players do work for your point. So yes you have a point. Not all of those work and some are questionable.

Did you do a complete survey for recent years? I dont know if you have a subscription or what that you could do a search query.

I'll get back when I have more time to discuss the rest. Great discussion thanks for your input.

I don't have anything I can search. I went through FG year by year from around 2004 forward, ranking OF by DRS. Then when I saw a guy with a +15-20 DRS, where I thought "he wasn't a good OF" I dug a little deeper.

Re36 about the only real cost is rule V.

The stuff that would be harder to measure is the stuff along the lines of players giving up or tuning out coaching. Some players it seem don't take kindly to demotion or getting blocked at the majors and seem to decline from previous established abilities in the minors.