BBTF's Newsblog Discussion :: Sources: Carlos Correa finalizing with Twins after Mets talks fizzle

Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Tuesday, January 10, 2023

Sources: Carlos Correa finalizing with Twins after Mets talks fizzle

Star shortstop Carlos Correa and the Minnesota Twins are finalizing a six-year, $200 million contract, pending a physical, after weeks of discussion to salvage a deal with the New York Mets broke down, sources familiar with the situation told ESPN.

The stunning turn caps a whirlwind month for Correa, who agreed to a 13-year, $350 million contract with the San Francisco Giants on Dec. 13. After the Giants raised concerns about Correa’s surgically repaired right leg, he pivoted quickly to the Mets, who offered him a 12-year, $315 million contract. The Mets flagged his physical as well, and efforts to amend the deal fell apart, leading Correa back to Minnesota, where he signed after a topsy-turvy offseason last year, too.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 10, 2023 at 12:34 PM | 78 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: carlos correa, mets, twins

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

1. Mefisto Posted: January 10, 2023 at 12:39 PM (#6112668)

Correa really gambled and lost.

2. vortex of dissipation Posted: January 10, 2023 at 12:39 PM (#6112669)

The LG Twins? At this point, I wouldn't be shocked.

3. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 10, 2023 at 12:43 PM (#6112670)

@BNightengale

The New York #Mets offer for Correa was 8 years, $210 million.
He could have earned an additional $105 million over a 12-year deal but it would not have been guaranteed

4. Rally Posted: January 10, 2023 at 12:48 PM (#6112672)

Pending a physical?

I would have hoped that Correa could just turn over the records from his other 2 physicals and let the Twins evaluate that during this negotiation time.

Is the next news going to come back next week that the Twins found an issue and put the deal on hold?

5. The Duke Posted: January 10, 2023 at 12:51 PM (#6112673)

What did Correa gamble? I think the Astros best deal on the table was 5-6 years at the time at lower AAV. Fast forward to last free agency - since he never signed a long term deal, he didn't have to worry about the physical issue. This year he signed two mega deals which both got crushed due to the physical. I'm not sure how else he could have played it? If this is 10/270 (conditionally) and he made 35 last year, it's 11/305 starting last year. He's got a 4/70 risk element that he is bearing. Doesn't seem horrible to me for a guy who clearly has a long term medical issue.

6. The Duke Posted: January 10, 2023 at 12:52 PM (#6112674)

4. Apparently the twins physical is mostly complete (and I take that to mean that they have already signed off on the leg).

7. Nasty Nate Posted: January 10, 2023 at 12:54 PM (#6112675)

Correa really gambled and lost.

How so? It seems like this new deal still beats what he opted out of.

8. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 10, 2023 at 12:56 PM (#6112676)

Correa has agreed to terms for a combined $865M this winter.

9. Cris E Posted: January 10, 2023 at 12:57 PM (#6112677)

If you add in the 35m for last year it could be 11 years, $305m (35+200+70) or it could be 35+200 ending at age 35. Both seem to get what they want, bragging rights and an out for the geezer years.

EDIT: Sorry Duke, just read your post after a refresh. Good points!

10. Booey Posted: January 10, 2023 at 01:00 PM (#6112678)

Guess he can stay at SS now, right?

11. Tin Angel Posted: January 10, 2023 at 01:07 PM (#6112681)

Seems like this will be an awkward press conference. "Uh, yes, we are happy to be back, this was...this is exactly what we wanted. No more questions thanks bye."

12. Mefisto Posted: January 10, 2023 at 01:10 PM (#6112683)

13. JRVJ Posted: January 10, 2023 at 01:11 PM (#6112684)

Boy, has Correa's FA been a roller coaster.

In any case, I have to believe that Twins broadcasts will devote significant airtime this year to Correa's ankle (if he makes it through this year without injuries, they'll probably let up in 2024).

14. My name is Votto, and I love to get Moppo Posted: January 10, 2023 at 01:17 PM (#6112688)

This is hilarious. Definitely the weirdest Free Agent saga I can remember.

15. Lassus Posted: January 10, 2023 at 01:18 PM (#6112689)

Interesting. Should I be upset? I'm not really even sure myself. I don't think I am?

I do wonder now, however, if Cohen was willing to drop that cash on Correa and DIDN'T, is there something else we can expect?

16. Lassus Posted: January 10, 2023 at 01:27 PM (#6112690)

@7: On an annual basis, sure. But the total value of the contract is only 57% of the initial deal with the Giants. IF Correa is able to get a big money contract when this runs out, he'll be fine. But that's a real gamble at this point.

Also, don't the Twins now have all the leverage? "Well, we see this scrape here on your knee. Do you snore, BTW? $175M."

17. Banta Posted: January 10, 2023 at 01:32 PM (#6112691)

I’m not sure what to make of any of this still. It could be evidence that there is a long term concern of a condition developing or this could be mitigation for Correa exploding at any moment. If it’s the latter, it’s impressive he got this much. Presuming, of course, that this actually goes through.

It’s logically consistent that Correa would take this deal over a longer, incentive based one for the Mets. Both require him to perform and bet on himself, but if he thinks he’s going to be healthy and productive over the next six years, then he’d probably think he can make more than 100 million additional for the rest of his career (age 34 on). Might not be unreasonable given how salaries are trending. And if he blows up tomorrow, which I still think is probably a potential outcome in all this, he got a big payday.

It is an open question if he would have been better off making 35 million annual the next two. As it stands, it’s basically like he signed a 4 year, 130 million extension to his prior Twins deal. If he’s healthy and productive through age 30, he likely beats that. But the injury cloud makes this all very tricky.

18. Walt Davis Posted: January 10, 2023 at 01:41 PM (#6112692)

We don't really know if Correa "won" or "lost." Maybe he turned down a Seager-like 10/$320 last year in which case he "lost" except for all we know that would have fallen apart over the physical too in which case he never would have had the Giants and Mets offers this year (at least not for that length). But in that alternate universe, once every team knows about the medical issue, this year the deep-pocket teams compete against each other with 6-7 year deals from the start and maybe he gets 6/$216 or 7/$235 this year.

He will still be just turning 34 at the end of this deal so he might easily add 3/$75 or something at the end of this deal. Anyway, I'd be happy to be on the losing end of a 6/$200 M contract.

19. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: January 10, 2023 at 01:51 PM (#6112694)

What did Correa gamble?

Well, he opted out of 2 years, $70 million. So he could have had that and then hit free agency again going into his age 30 season.

Now he's getting 6 years, $200 million so he's basically signing a 4-year, $130 million extension ($32.5M per year) on that original deal. So I agree, he didn't lose much with this gamble.

There are some reports that he walked away from a 10-year, $285 offer from the Twins before signing the Giants deal. If that's the case then he potentially lost $85 million in guaranteed money here, but he could still make that if he's healthy at the end of this contract.

EDIT: Coke to Walt who made some of the same points.

20. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: January 10, 2023 at 01:56 PM (#6112695)

Interesting. Should I be upset? I'm not really even sure myself. I don't think I am?

I'm not really upset. Correa certainly would have improved the team but it was a lot to spend to move a guy off his primary position. If Cohen puts this money towards filling other needs (this year or in the future) then I'm not really bothered.

21. Russ Posted: January 10, 2023 at 01:57 PM (#6112696)

I'm wondering if the Twins give him a no-trade clause, which means he could become effectively a free agent again sooner than 6 years, insofar as he could negotiate a new contract with someone else if he stays healthy and does well.

22. Darren

Posted: January 10, 2023 at 01:59 PM (#6112697)

Dumb question: Are the vesting options team options that vest into guaranteed years, team options that become player options, or nothings that become player options?

23. Buck Coats Posted: January 10, 2023 at 02:00 PM (#6112698)

There are some reports that he walked away from a 10-year, $285 offer from the Twins before signing the Giants deal. If that's the case then he potentially lost $85 million in guaranteed money here, but he could still make that if he's healthy at the end of this contract.

Right but presumably that 10/285 deal would have fallen apart after the physical too? I mean the only "gamble" was "agreeing to take a physical", which I doubt he had a real choice on...

24. Lassus Posted: January 10, 2023 at 02:00 PM (#6112699)

I’m not sure what to make of any of this still.

I think the chances are are certainly non-zero he has no significant injury time from now until 40. But SOMETHING is bothering all these people.

but it was a lot to spend to move a guy off his primary position.

Yes.

25. Nasty Nate Posted: January 10, 2023 at 02:00 PM (#6112700)

@7: On an annual basis, sure. But the total value of the contract is only 57% of the initial deal with the Giants. IF Correa is able to get a big money contract when this runs out, he'll be fine. But that's a real gamble at this point.

He didn't walk away from the Giants deal; they did. His gambles were going for a short deal last time, and opting out.

26. Darren

Posted: January 10, 2023 at 02:01 PM (#6112701)

Overall, I agree with the idea that it's hard to say that Correa gambled and lost here. The Tigers were rumored to have offered him something like 10/280 last year, but who's to say they wouldn't have had the same issues with his physical. As it is, it looks like he got 7/235 since that time with an additional 4/70 in some kind of options.

27. DCA Posted: January 10, 2023 at 02:06 PM (#6112702)

This is hilarious. Definitely the weirdest Free Agent saga I can remember.

Definitely. To me, the most surprising thing is how quickly Correa jumped from the Giants to the Mets (for less money).

It seemed like the Giants were willing to negotiate around the ankle risk, and having whiffed on Judge seemed to be under pressure to find a way to close, but Correa/Boras immediately turned around and got themselves a new deal. It seems quite likely that the Giants would have been willing to give Correa the deal he now appears to be getting from the Twins.

28. Lassus Posted: January 10, 2023 at 02:14 PM (#6112703)

WTF happens when the TWINS don't like the physical?

29. reech Posted: January 10, 2023 at 02:24 PM (#6112705)

As a 3rd baseman, Correa wasn't worth what he would have been as a Shortstop.
I'm not upset the Mets dropped out.

30. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: January 10, 2023 at 02:26 PM (#6112706)

Right but presumably that 10/285 deal would have fallen apart after the physical too? I mean the only "gamble" was "agreeing to take a physical", which I doubt he had a real choice on...

Yeah, I'm assuming that the Twins would have been ok with the physical prior to the Giants and Mets both having issues, but you're right that we don't know whether that's the case.

31. bobm Posted: January 10, 2023 at 02:38 PM (#6112709)

The Twins are not going to balk.

[Scott] Boras spoke after pitcher Carlos Rodón's introductory news conference with the New York Yankees. The agent said all teams had been provided results of Correa's end-of-season physical conducted by Dr. Christopher Camp, the Twins' medical director and director of high performance and an orthopedist at the Mayo Clinic.

"They have a full account of the player prior to doing anything that has to do with offers," Boras said. “Got a long letter passing him, and with that came a recommendation for over a 10-year contract. So that was the known of the Minnesota team physician who was with him all year long.”

32. Lassus Posted: January 10, 2023 at 02:44 PM (#6112711)

Got a long letter passing him

A long letter? Lots of things to explain? ;-)

33. Adam Starblind Posted: January 10, 2023 at 03:07 PM (#6112718)

If Cohen puts this money towards filling other needs (this year or in the future) then I'm not really bothered.

Now we can get both Ohtani AND Machado!

34. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 10, 2023 at 03:07 PM (#6112719)

A long letter? Lots of things to explain? ;-)

Yeah, I don't think there's such a thing as a good long medical report.

35. winnipegwhip Posted: January 10, 2023 at 03:23 PM (#6112722)

#33

Trevor Bauer meet the Mets.Meet the Mets.

36. Cris E Posted: January 10, 2023 at 03:57 PM (#6112728)

If the deal is finalized, Correa will receive an $8MM signing bonus (paid out between 2023 and 2024) and annual salaries of $36MM in 2023-25, $31.5MM in 2026, $30.5MM in 2027 and $30MM in 2028. The vesting options are valued at $25MM (2029), $20MM (2030), $15MM (2031) and $10MM (2032) and each become guaranteed if Correa reaches 502 plate appearances in the preceding season.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post clarifies the vesting provisions for Correa’s options (Twitter link). Correa would need 575 plate appearances in 2028 to automatically vest his $25MM option for the 2029 season. That number drops to 550 in 2029 (in order to vest his 2030 option), 525 in 2030 (to vest his 2031 option) and 502 in 2031 (to vest his 2032 option). The Athletic’s Dan Hayes tweets that the Twins can still pick up any of the club options on Correa if he doesn’t meet the criteria for plate appearances. Correa will also have a full no-trade clause, per Heyman.

So starting in 2028 any substantial injury can cost him the rest of the option years, not just the leg. And those twilight years are going to be easy to trade at that senior discount rate.

37. Cris E Posted: January 10, 2023 at 03:57 PM (#6112729)

(double post)

38. Walt Davis Posted: January 10, 2023 at 04:28 PM (#6112735)

Those seem like not very good options from Correa's perspective. A healthy Correa being worth more 4/$70 (in 2029 $) even at that age is not preposterous. Unless they are mutual options or have some escalator clauses or something. I'm not sure how I'd structure them instead -- maybe something like if he hits the first PA target then the Twins get a $30 M option and, if they pass, he has a $20 M option. Or at least something where just meeting the first PA target vests the first 2 optiones -- the year-to-year nature of it is also not in Correa's favor. Or at least, in each year, 600 PA vests at $30 M, 550 at $25, 500 at $20.

For example, grabbing the oft-injured Barry Larkin, at 34-35 he put up 11 WAR; granted at 36-37 he put up only 3 and he wouldn't have triggered the vesting options with just 276 PA (but 3.5 WAR!) at 33. And that was after producing a total of 30 WAR for 28-33. If the Twins got 30 WAR for $200 M then 4/$70 in annual options? That would probably work out to be one of the best FA deals of all time. Correa should have some chance at bigger money in those option years.

But SOMETHING is bothering all these people.

Don't we know (i.e. have a plausible solid rumor!) what's bothering them ... that docs agree that hte reconstructed ankle isn't a major short-term risk but that eventually arthritis will arrive? Who knows when, who knows how severe? Still it seems likely he'd be able to trot out to 1B/DH with enough cortisone if the bat is still producing OK but that's not remotely a $30 M player ... and if that happens at 31 rather than 35, a 12-year deal doesn't look so good. Buckner managed to play another 15 years after destroying his ankle. (I had also thought McRae's injury was an ankle but apparently he had a multiple fracture in his leg.)

39. The Yankee Clapper Posted: January 10, 2023 at 04:43 PM (#6112737)

The threshold for the $25M 1st option year is pretty high (575 PA), but the Twins might still pick it up if Correa falls a bit short of the PA but has a good season. The PAs slide to 550, 525 & 502 for the next 3 option years, which appear to be at $15M. Counting what Correa has already earned, the $200M contract pushes him to $261,851,700 in career earnings. Not too bad, and he might still add some to that past age-33 if the Twins decline the options at some point. Not quite the sure thing of the Giants deal, or Mets, but still pretty good, and apparently the best he could get now that the medical issues have arisen.

40. Captain Joe Bivens, Pointless and Wonderful Posted: January 10, 2023 at 05:24 PM (#6112743)

There's still time for the Red Sox to jump in.

41. Captain Joe Bivens, Pointless and Wonderful Posted: January 10, 2023 at 05:28 PM (#6112745)

It's not like the Red Sox have never used a SS who had a bad knee before. 400 games in the early 80s. The guy *wore a brace*.

42. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: January 10, 2023 at 08:13 PM (#6112767)

The Twins presumably already knew all about the arthritic ankle, since they were his employer for a year and have all his medical records. You'd assume the physical now is just a routine check for any *new* issues that could have come up since he left their employ in November.

43. Walt Davis Posted: January 10, 2023 at 11:54 PM (#6112781)

EDIT: Coke to Walt who made some of the same points.

Meh, your post was better. Half a Coke at most, save it up until we go double or nothing.

44. aberg Posted: January 11, 2023 at 03:49 AM (#6112785)

I'm curious how long Correa will stay at SS even for the Twins. When it looked like he wasn't coming back, there was a lot of talk about how quickly one of Lewis or Lee could be ready to take over. Paired with Correa's declining defensive metrics and the physical burden of playing SS, it might be wise to move him to SS in 24 or 25 rather than sliding one of the young guys there preemptively. I assume Correa will be a 1B/DH by his mid-30s, but the contract is not cost prohibitive for him to do that and he doesn't have the kind of batting profile that makes me worry his hitting will fall off a cliff if he can't catch up to a FB all of the sudden.

45. The_Ex Posted: January 11, 2023 at 09:14 AM (#6112796)

Someone noted that Correa had deals with 10% of MLB teams this off season.

46. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: January 11, 2023 at 10:05 AM (#6112805)

I think Correa slides over to 3B when he is done with SS. Hopefully not for 3 or 4 years, but who knows? It does kind of depend on their SS prospects and his health develop.

47. . . . . . . Posted: January 11, 2023 at 10:45 AM (#6112807)

here's my speculation, based on some experience with sports business stuff and conversations with other agents in pro sports.

my guess is that Boras knew this was an issue the whole time and told his client there was a problem. my further guess is that he discussed with his client a strategy whereby they'd enter into these agreements subject to physicals, leak the deals widely to the media, and hope that the PR to preserve the deal would pressure the team to either keep the deal as is (ideally, but unlikely) or to at least renegotiate at a number above where the deal would've landed if the medical issue had been fully disclosed in advance. I think the strategy wasn't a bad idea, but I don't think it worked. But i don't think Correa lost out, because he ended up getting the deal he would've gotten in the first place with full transparency.

Just my mildly informed speculation.

48. I Am Not a Number Posted: January 11, 2023 at 11:18 AM (#6112814)

Someone noted that Correa had deals with 10% of MLB teams this off season.

Edwin Jackson approves.

49. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick

Posted: January 11, 2023 at 11:37 AM (#6112819)

Correa passes physical, inks deal; Twins set to hold presser at 12:30 ET

Correa passed his physical on Wednesday morning, and the Twins have scheduled a news conference for 11:30 a.m. CT, which will be streamed on MLB.com and twins.com.

50. Mayor Blomberg Posted: January 11, 2023 at 12:17 PM (#6112825)

Still 13 minutes for it to fall apart!

51. Hank Gillette Posted: January 11, 2023 at 02:59 PM (#6112847)

Correa really gambled and lost.

I wish I could lose like that.

52. Tony S Posted: January 11, 2023 at 03:32 PM (#6112854)

Good for the Twins, and good for baseball. Player/team continuity and identification is a good thing.

And Correa didn't exactly come out badly.

53. Walt Davis Posted: January 11, 2023 at 04:20 PM (#6112870)

Now that this thread is likely coming to a close, let me point out what a great word "fizzle" is. Possibly a top 10 word.

54. Banta Posted: January 11, 2023 at 06:15 PM (#6112896)

I’m still a bit surprised that the Twins went this far, especially now considering what’s being reported where the Mets drew the line:

The Mets were then willing to guarantee $157.5 million over six years, and he would’ve been eligible for an additional six years and $157.5 million had he reached plate-appearance and innings benchmarks.

Source

However, it also sounds like the Twins have a lot of control past the guaranteed six years. Dan Hayes on Twitter reports:

Once medicals are finalized, & Twins are said to be comfortable w/ what they've already seen, the first $200m of Carlos Correa's contract is guaranteed.

The final 4 years have vesting amounts at 575, 550, 525 & 502 ABs.
But even if it didn't vest, the Twins have team options.

So were Carlos Correa not to reach 575 at-bats in 2029, it wouldn't mean he just becomes a free agent. The #MNTwins have a $25m club option. He could earn $20m in 2030, $15m in 2031 and $10m in 2032.

From what I’m reading, it sounds like all four of the options are team options/automatically kicked in by ABs, which is kinda nuts in the albeit unlikely event that Correa is still a premiere player by 2030-32.

I want to again say that none of us really know what the medical situation is. Everyone seems to want to assume that it’s for something long term, but I think it’s almost as possible that it’s something that could blow out at any moment. That would explain the Mets reluctance to even match the Twins six years, which it seems like Correa only got by sacrificing any control he had to make more after it expired. Basically, the Mets didn’t want to be on the hook for all 315 million if he got severely hurt in a year or two but were willing to risk half that.

55. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: January 11, 2023 at 06:57 PM (#6112897)

From what I’m reading, it sounds like all four of the options are team options/automatically kicked in by ABs, which is kinda nuts in the albeit unlikely event that Correa is still a premiere player by 2030-32.

If Correa is playing well, I'd imagine he'd push for an extension, tough to see him being happy hitting well and passing at 3B or playing 1B, hitting the 502 AB incentive, and locking himself into $10M.

56. Adam Starblind Posted: January 11, 2023 at 07:39 PM (#6112903)

He can push for whatever he wants, but he’ll be a player in his mid 30s locked into a team-friendly contract.

57. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: January 11, 2023 at 08:42 PM (#6112906)

my guess is that Boras knew this was an issue the whole time and told his client there was a problem. my further guess is that he discussed with his client a strategy whereby they'd enter into these agreements subject to physicals, leak the deals widely to the media, and hope that the PR to preserve the deal would pressure the team to either keep the deal as is (ideally, but unlikely) or to at least renegotiate at a number above where the deal would've landed if the medical issue had been fully disclosed in advance.

Boras being sleazy? That’s unpossible!

58. Adam Starblind Posted: January 11, 2023 at 10:01 PM (#6112912)

That’s not sleazy, that’s representing your client in a system where the other side is a multibillion dollar industry that generally knows what it’s doing and is as aggressive with players as they feel like being.

59. Cooper Nielson Posted: January 11, 2023 at 10:57 PM (#6112921)

The final 4 years have vesting amounts at 575, 550, 525 & 502 ABs.

If this is correct, its kinda weird. I know that 502 is a sacred number for plate appearances, but it isn't for AB. Why not just make it 500?

And if it's really linked to AB, wouldn't that discourage him from taking walks?

60. The Yankee Clapper Posted: January 12, 2023 at 01:35 AM (#6112924)

It’s reported as PA everywhere I’ve seen, so I suspect the AB reference was just an isolated slip-up.

61. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: January 12, 2023 at 02:13 AM (#6112926)

That’s not sleazy, that’s representing your client in a system where the other side is a multibillion dollar industry that generally knows what it’s doing and is as aggressive with players as they feel like being

It’s seeking to benefit from withholding material information. That’s sleazy.

62. aberg Posted: January 12, 2023 at 03:54 AM (#6112927)

From what I’m reading, it sounds like all four of the options are team options/automatically kicked in by ABs, which is kinda nuts in the albeit unlikely event that Correa is still a premiere player by 2030-32.

It is different, but it seems to make sense given the motivations of the parties here. Correa wanted to maximize the length/total value of the deal and seems to legitimately believe that his ankle will not be a long-term problem. If that's true, the playing time thresholds should not be a deal-breaker for him. The team's interest is straightforward- they want protection if his ankle becomes so problematic that he can't play regularly later in the deal. Correa probably gave up more than the team, but given how the winter played out for him, getting a deal that maxes out at $275m if he hits playing time he probably believes he will hit, still feels like a good outcome for him.

63. sunday silence (again) Posted: January 12, 2023 at 04:43 AM (#6112930)

But even healthy productive players often don't get 500+ PA. It seems like these are extremely high barriers to meet.

If he has over 575 PA at age 34 and is playing 3b he should be worth more than $25M but eh..

64. Adam Starblind Posted: January 12, 2023 at 07:33 AM (#6112933)

@61

He’s not withholding anything. A physical is a standard part of the transaction. Do the Giants have to tell Boras if ownership is having financial problems, so don’t get your hopes up about the playoffs?

65. Nasty Nate Posted: January 12, 2023 at 08:48 AM (#6112937)

here's my speculation, based on some experience with sports business stuff and conversations with other agents in pro sports.

my guess is that Boras knew this was an issue the whole time and told his client there was a problem. my further guess is that he discussed with his client a strategy whereby they'd enter into these agreements subject to physicals, leak the deals widely to the media, and hope that the PR to preserve the deal would pressure the team to either keep the deal as is (ideally, but unlikely) or to at least renegotiate at a number above where the deal would've landed if the medical issue had been fully disclosed in advance. I think the strategy wasn't a bad idea, but I don't think it worked. But i don't think Correa lost out, because he ended up getting the deal he would've gotten in the first place with full transparency.

Just my mildly informed speculation.

Were these deals leaked any earlier than other big ones? It seems like we always hear about them before the physicals.

66. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 12, 2023 at 09:47 AM (#6112945)

Were these deals leaked any earlier than other big ones? It seems like we always hear about them before the physicals.

Which really seems ass backwards. Why not do the physical before you start negotiation?

67. Nasty Nate Posted: January 12, 2023 at 09:52 AM (#6112947)

Which really seems ass backwards. Why not do the physical before you start negotiation?

Players and doctors don't want to be doing dozens of physical exams all offseason.

68. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 12, 2023 at 10:31 AM (#6112950)

Players and doctors don't want to be doing dozens of physical exams all offseason.

You do one with an independent doctor and share the results upfront. The MLBPA and MLB could agree on a list of mutually acceptable doctors, and what tests should be run.

69. villageidiom Posted: January 12, 2023 at 11:04 AM (#6112954)

Which really seems ass backwards. Why not do the physical before you start negotiation?

70. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 12, 2023 at 11:19 AM (#6112957)

Why not do the drug test before the job application? Why not hand over the credit report before entering the car dealership? Why not provide your actual name and address and phone number before posting on BTF? In each case you're putting personal information in the hands of someone who you can't guarantee will respect the privacy of that information, and who at that moment has no real relationship with you to protect.

The MLBPA and MLB are in a very close relationship. The team has a right to the medical information. They can certainly figure out a way to safeguard it.

Like, switch it around the other way. Why not have the team submit their financial detail to the player before they start negotiation? It's relevant, and I hear that withholding relevant information in a negotiation is shady.

Player contracts are guaranteed by MLB. The player is equally likely to get paid regardless of the team he signs with. If that wasn't true, then I agree the player would have the right to team financials to see if they were a good risk for a 12 year commitment.

71. billyshears Posted: January 12, 2023 at 02:04 PM (#6112976)

The team has a right to the medical information.

The team that has offered a player a contract that has been accepted has a right to that information. The other teams do not.

72. Walt Davis Posted: January 12, 2023 at 02:49 PM (#6112987)

The Mets were then willing to guarantee $157.5 million over six years, and he would’ve been eligible for an additional six years and $157.5 million had he reached plate-appearance and innings benchmarks.

This just doesn't seem plausible to me. This is just offering him the discounted AAV of a long-term, "backloaded" deal but allowing the team to opt out halfway through. If this is what the Mets offered, I'm not surprised he turned it down -- the Mets needed to offer something more like the Twins 6/$200 with $100 M in options or similar. By "innings benchmarks" (in addition to PA benchmarks) I assume the Mets were requiring innings at SS/3B or at least innings in the field to trigger the options.

But yes, the Twins options are pretty lousy from Correa's perspective. The only way Correa "wins" here is to pull an Alomar and be heatlhy but unproductive from 33 on. (Alomar actually dove off the cliff between 33 and 34 but close enough.)

EDIT: To put that in perspective, Correa has hit 575 PA (or 500 PA for that matter) just 3 times in 7 full seasons.

73. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 12, 2023 at 02:58 PM (#6112989)

The team that has offered a player a contract that has been accepted has a right to that information. The other teams do not.

And I'm saying that's a stupid system, as the Correa debacle shows.

74. Adam Starblind Posted: January 12, 2023 at 04:56 PM (#6113002)

You do one with an independent doctor and share the results upfront. The MLBPA and MLB could agree on a list of mutually acceptable doctors, and what tests should be run.

What they should do is periodically reassess and bargain over the rules pertaining to conditions of employment and the market for baseball players. That is the only way to restore peace and end this long-running war between players and management about medical exams that has so captivated the baseball world for so long.

75. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: January 12, 2023 at 04:58 PM (#6113003)

And I'm saying that's a stupid system, as the Correa debacle shows.

The Correa Adventure is an extreme outlier and doesn't show anyone anything about the system.

76. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: January 12, 2023 at 05:32 PM (#6113006)

Why not do the drug test before the job application? Why not hand over the credit report before entering the car dealership? Why not provide your actual name and address and phone number before posting on BTF? In each case you're putting personal information in the hands of someone who you can't guarantee will respect the privacy of that information, and who at that moment has no real relationship with you to protect.

The credit reporting bureaus (Experian, TransUnion, etc.) have, in fact, compiled all of your data before you entered the car dealership. And the dealership does, in fact, get a copy of that report, with your consent, before offering you a loan.

A similar system, whereby a player gets one physical with a doctor from a list approved by the 30 teams, and then gives consent for a specific team to access the results of that exam when he enters into negotiations with them, would actually make a lot of sense.

In any case, it seems stupid for teams to announce deals before physicals are completed. Maybe the Correa example may cause teams and players to rethink that strategy going forward.

77. Bhaakon Posted: January 12, 2023 at 08:18 PM (#6113027)

I'm not really sure how the Correa saga shows anything negative about the "system" at all. It seems to be working as intended. It's unfortunate that the man appears to be damaged goods, but there is no non-awkward way for a market to deal with that reality. Even if there were an independent examination at the start of the offseason, we'd just have months of Boras complaing to the media about how the system is rigged. You end up with acrimony either way.

Actually, I find the fact that so few deals get nixed by physicals over the years more troubling than anything that has happened with Correa this offseason. They typically seem like rubber stamp affairs, which isn't really all that healthy considering the size and length of the investments involved and how often seasons are scuttled by injury. So either they are a joke, with doctors tacitly instructed not to find anything, or medical science is pretty bad at risk analysis even at the highest levels. Neither one of those possibilities is great (and both make one imagine that Correa's ankle must look like ground beef on an MRI).

78. sunday silence (again) Posted: January 12, 2023 at 10:00 PM (#6113037)

this concept of pooled sharing of player medical data: would it have to be agreed upon by the players association?

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

<< Back to main

Tuesday, January 10, 2023

Sources: Carlos Correa finalizing with Twins after Mets talks fizzle

Reader Comments and Retorts

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

Hot Topics