The Nimmo contract seems somewhat ok, though the back end is going to be terrible.

The Robertson contract really doesn't make sense (way too much money), but it's only one year.

The Robertson contract really doesn't make sense (way too much money), but it's only one year.

That's why it makes sense.

I suppose that means Ottavino is signing elsehwere.

There is a heck of a lot of money in baseball. I'm glad the players are getting paid.

There is a heck of a lot of money in baseball. I'm glad the players are getting paid.

I definitely agree that it is good to see the players getting paid - they are the product, ultimately.

But is Steve Cohen throwing down this much money because the Mets are making this much money - or is he a super-rich guy who:

1) is totally willing and able to lose money on this super-cool thing he owns, because he wants to win; and
2) Knows that the real value in owning big-time professional sports teams (whether in North America or Europe) is that the value of the franchise keeps growing at a healthy clip.

The Denver Broncos sold earlier this year to members of the Wal-Mart empire for $4.65 billion. The most valuable team, according to Forbes, is the Dallas Cowboys, estimated to be worth $8 billion. That is 67% higher than five years ago. In 1989, Jerry Jones bought the team for...$150 million.

I'm not sure if it is so much that there is a lot more money in the operation of baseball; I think there is a lot more capital in the hands of the owners, who are confident the value of their franchise is going up by double-digits annually, and can spend on players if they wish. Steve Cohen bought the team a few years ago for almost $2.5 billion; the value of the team is probably going up by $250m+ a year. If he has to write a luxury tax bill for an extra, say, $75 million, does he really give a ****?

Cohen gets to depreciate the Mets for the first 15 years after the sale. He gets to double count player contracts as an expense AND depreciate them as an asset.

The Mets are an AMAZING tax shelter.

Roster Depreciation Allowance - The ability to amortize sports franchise (greenberglawoffice.com)

"Under the American Job Creation Act of 2004, sports owners could depreciate all tangible property acquired in connection with the franchise under IRS Section 168 and amortize all intangible assets such as players’ contracts, sponsorship agreements, luxury suite contracts, and various other intangibles – including the franchise itself – over a fifteen year period under IRS Section 197."

"The tax sheltering effects are clearly apparent in reviewing the consolidated statements of operations for the Brooklyn Basketball, LLC, owner of the Brooklyn Nets. Taking the fiscal year of 2006, not only are the players’ salaries totaling $58,896,983.00 deducted from income, but also “depreciation and amortization” are deducted in the amount of $41,032,427.00.[3] The consolidated statements represents an actual cash loss of $27,075,307 (operating loss of $14,439,939 and interest expense of $12,635,368), but a total loss of $68,107,734. At a marginal tax rate of 35%, that constitutes $23,837,706 in tax savings."

Nimmo's a great underappreciated player, fine.

IMO all this is secondary to the shitty decision of heading into the season with Alvarez's 12 ML ABs and the dreck of McCann and Nido.

Am I the only one who thinks this is an amazing deal compared to what else is happening? He's in the same class as Bogaerts and Turner, same age, but he's $100 mil plus less.

Nimmo's a great underappreciated player, fine.

IMO all this is secondary to the shitty decision of heading into the season with Alvarez's 12 ML ABs and the dreck of McCann and Nido.

How are you going to get a better C when you've got Alvarez knocking on the door? You're not going to pay or trade for a good C, and block your top prospect.

Im gonna go against the prevailing wisdom and say the Nimmo contract is very risky. He's going to be 30 and almost no one can cover CF at age 30. Although Nimmo does seem to still have decent range factor. He's coming off a career year and most of the time he only plays half a season. HE's not really a plus OF'er due to somewhat below avg arm and runner advances.

OTOH he's a very good and very consistent hitter. So if he moves to LF he loses a bit of the positional bonus but I guess he's still like a 3-3.5 WAR player. For how many years maybe 4? But if he misses half of those games then its not worth it. If the break even pt is 16 WAR on this contract I think it more likely he's under.

BUt I like the guy and I like what the Mets are doing. Very risky.

How are you going to get a better C when you've got Alvarez knocking on the door? You're not going to pay or trade for a good C, and block your top prospect.

I get all this and perhaps it's just unanswerable. But is it really just a 12 AB prospect or complete crap? There's no middle ground better that McNido in case Alvarez is more Milledge than Reyes? TWELVE ABs!

double

Im gonna go against the prevailing wisdom and say the Nimmo contract is very risky. He's going to be 30 and almost no one can cover CF at age 30. Although Nimmo does seem to still have decent range factor. He's coming off a career year and most of the time he only plays half a season. HE's not really a plus OF'er due to somewhat below avg arm and runner advances.

Also, Nimmo's arm is pretty weak so it's reasonable to believe left field is his when Canha departs after the 2024 season.

Nimmo's a good player, but doesn't seem like the kind of player who normally gets an 8-year FA deal. Most of the deals of similar length are pre-arb guys or big stars.

Im gonna go against the prevailing wisdom and say the Nimmo contract is very risky. He's going to be 30 and almost no one can cover CF at age 30. Although Nimmo does seem to still have decent range factor. He's coming off a career year and most of the time he only plays half a season. HE's not really a plus OF'er due to somewhat below avg arm and runner advances.

OTOH he's a very good and very consistent hitter. So if he moves to LF he loses a bit of the positional bonus but I guess he's still like a 3-3.5 WAR player. For how many years maybe 4? But if he misses half of those games then its not worth it. If the break even pt is 16 WAR on this contract I think it more likely he's under.

You don't think he can average 2-WAR a year? The contract is long, but the AAV is low. Even if you write-off the last two years, $20M in dead money on a $250-$300M payroll, is not a big deal.

Nimmo's a good player, but doesn't seem like the kind of player who normally gets an 8-year FA deal. Most of the deals of similar length are pre-arb guys or big stars.

Well, he's averaged ~4.5 per 600 PA. $20 p.a. is very low for that type of production, so they had to go long to keep the AAV that low.

I get all this and perhaps it's just unanswerable. But is it really just a 12 AB prospect or complete crap? There's no middle ground better that McNido in case Alvarez is more Milledge than Reyes? TWELVE ABs!

The rest of the lineup is really good. They won 101 games with McNido. I think they're willing to risk an offensive black hole, to give Alvarez a shot.

No catcher plays every day and Alvarez will also be able to DH against LHPs. There's no reason no to bring in a starting catcher and give Francisco something like 60 starts at catcher and 30 starts at DH if he's hitting well enough.

No catcher plays every day and Alvarez will also be able to DH against LHPs. There's no reason no to bring in a starting catcher and give Francisco something like 60 starts at catcher and 30 starts at DH if he's hitting well enough.

I don't like that approach with top prospects. I think if you believe he's ready, he's the starter, and you live through the growing pains. If you don't think he's ready, you bring in someone else and let him get another year of AAA. I think the worst think you can do is make a young player think that he has to perform immediately, or he's heading to the bench.

Guys, you’re all forgetting that Nido established a new level of performance in the last month, 305/312/542! That’s 280/307/449 in the second half! I don’t want to hear about sample size, he’s only going to get better from here. I expect him to complete for the MVP next season and also win the Vezina, all as a backup to the Francishise.

Which "starting catcher" did you have in mind. The only one I know of that's available is Murphy who is gonna cost you quite a bit in prospects. Your best FA options are Tucker Barnhart 31, Jorge Alfaro 30, or Chirinos 39. Those are all just different ways of saying McCann.

The rest of the lineup is really good. They won 101 games with McNido. I think they're willing to risk an offensive black hole, to give Alvarez a shot.

I suppose. Perhaps it's just a lingering nostalgic melancholy over 12 HOF catcher years between 1985 and 2005.


Which "starting catcher" did you have in mind. The only one I know of that's available is Murphy who is gonna cost you quite a bit in prospects. Your best FA options are Tucker Barnhart 31, Jorge Alfaro 30, or Chirinos 39. Those are all just different ways of saying McCann.

Fully granted I ran not one number. Kind of assumed someone who sucked less would not be impossible. I guess it is. (I mean, I would also trade, though. Anyhow.)

Using the apparent logic of this offseason that good players repeat their late 20s in their early 30s, Nimmo should put up 16 WAR over the next 5 years so the total value on this contract looks just fine. If he stays healthy, they probably get a lot more than 16 WAR; or if he stays reasonably productive after 34, they probably pick up another 4-5 WAR in the out years.

From a PR point of view, with no viable replacements on the market, it would’ve been bad to lose another homegrown star.

Am I the only one who thinks this is an amazing deal compared to what else is happening? He's in the same class as Bogaerts and Turner, same age, but he's $100 mil plus less.

Nimmo only has 2 seasons with more than 100 games, and only 1 with 100 games in CF. No MVP votes, and not nearly the power of Bogaerts or Turner. Maybe Nimmo has the potential to have a season as good as Bogaerts or Turner, but he’s not in their class today, IMHO.

I wouldn't call last year a career year - it was about the same as his 2018 season, but with a bit of extra value since he did it in CF.

The biggest risk with Nimmo is health. When he's been on the field he's been a consistently good player.

I wonder what the fewest SB is for a guy who led the league in 3B? Nimmo led the NL with 7 3B last year and only had 3 SB.

I wonder what the fewest SB is for a guy who led the league in 3B? Nimmo led the NL with 7 3B last year and only had 3 SB.

My first guess was Evan Gattis, but he didn't lead the league in his magic 11-triple season (zero SB).

I still don't understand how the Red Sox and others didn't offer him this much for like 6 years.

The sh1t-eating grin and sprinting to 1B after every BB, no matter the score, have to be worth at least 1.5 WAR per season.

Im gonna go against the prevailing wisdom and say the Nimmo contract is very risky. He's going to be 30 and almost no one can cover CF at age 30. Although Nimmo does seem to still have decent range factor. He's coming off a career year and most of the time he only plays half a season. HE's not really a plus OF'er due to somewhat below avg arm and runner advances.

Watching exclusively the AL, I only have a passing knowledge of Nimmo.

I looked at his traditional baseball card stats last night and thought they were very unimpressive for a guy just securing 160 million.

Career high of 17 HRs. Only hit double digit HRs twice. Career high in RBIs of 64. Only played 100 games+ twice. Not a SB threat.

The only thing that stands out as a baseball card stat is the fact he's posted a +.400 OBP thrice.

Seems kind of cherry picked. There numbers add up to 4+ WAR player. Steamer projects him for 5 WAR next year.

I looked at his traditional baseball card stats last night and thought they were very unimpressive for a guy just securing 160 million.

You're unimpressed with a CF with a 134 career wRC+? Given that number, who cares about HR, RBI, and SB? RBIs and SBs haven't been important stats for 25 years.

Health is the issue. If his health wasn't an issue he would have gotten 8/250.

As a recent article (The Athletic? MLB.com?) highlighted, anyone who can pick up a bat and play passable centerfield is in demand these days. Toss in the 134 wRC+ and that's how you arrive at Nimmo's new contract.

Seeing the discussion, seems like it’s a reasonable contract seeing as how there’s a lot of debate.

The only thing unimpressive about Nimmo is his games played. He’s always hit and he plays a decent center field now. Mets obviously think that his injury history isn’t particularly predictive and in his case, I’d tend to agree. Looking back to ‘19, he’s had listed injuries to his neck, finger, hip, hamstring (twice for the same in ‘21), quad, and knee. Maybe that means he’s just “injury prone”, but I believe unless it’s something specific that lingers, you really can’t say with any confidence that he’s more likely to be hurt.

I’ve expressed my surprise with this contract, but the more I think about it, it’s not really unusual given the market and the type of year Nimmo is coming off of. Again, he picked the best possible time to play in the most games of his career… probably made him around 80 million dollars. And yes, a Nimmo who was durable throughout his career would have likely gotten a contract closer to Bogaerts and Turner. His offense as a CF is darn near elite level, with some notable exceptions.

I do agree he doesn’t “feel” like the kind of player who usually gets this type of contract, but he’s been underrated in his career. Fairly odd for a NY player, but his injuries and the type of offense he produces obviously factor in. He’s been the Mets second best hitter most years but almost all of that is his OBP. Which was low for him this year, but still in the top ten in the league, believe it or not. (Nimmo was sixth in the NL actually with a .367, tied with Canha… fifth was Donovan with .394. What a huge dropoff from the top five. Edit: now I see that McNeil was fourth with .382, so Donovan’s is actually prorated to get the minimum. Not as big a dropoff as I thought then).

I wonder what the fewest SB is for a guy who led the league in 3B? Nimmo led the NL with 7 3B last year and only had 3 SB.

Interesting question. First guy I checked, Nick Castellanos, had 4 SB (5 CS) the year he led the league with 10 triples.

2020 doesn't count but Mike Yastrzemski had 2 SB.

Hunter Dozier in 2019 led the AL with 10 triples. He only stole 2 bases.

Bobby Knoop in 1966: 11 triples, 1 SB
Gus Bell in 1951: 12 triples, 1 SB
Dixie Walker in 1937: 16 triples, 1 SB

Didn't find any with 0, but I expect there are some. I didn't do an exhaustive search, just spot-checked the season leaders for guys who didn't seem like base-stealers.

Here's a kinda weird one: Pete Reiser led the league with 17 triples in 1941 and only stole 4 bases. Then iIn 1942, he led the league with 20 SB but only had 5 triples.

he's averaged ~4.5 per 600 PA.

This is the rub with Nimmo. 2022 is his only career season with 600+ PA. He has 6 fullish seasons (I am lumping '16 and '17 together for this purpose) and has total of less than 2400 PA.

I feel like Nimmo is decently likely to put up good value for at least the next 2-3 years while on the field. The question is, do you crack 1000 PA over those 3 years?

The contract has the potential to net less than 2400 PA over its duration since durability tends to get worse, not better in a player's 30s.

So, the Mets "got a bargain" on rate-stats because there is substantive question of his aggregate counting stats over the contract.

I'll try to add something new. Can you cover CF if you're over age 30?

List of CF who played >50 games in CF and are currently over age 30:

name..current age...DRS last season
A Hicks 33 +4
G Springer 33 -4
Kiermaier 32 +2
Michael A Taylor 31 +19 (not a typo, speed 50th percentile among CF)
M Yasztremski 32 +2 (7th percentile for speed among CF)

*****others ****
Rafael Ortega 31 -2 47g
Adam Duvall 34 -3 44g

I doubt that Yaz or Hicks was acceptable in CF but yes at least a few elite guys can play there at least for a couple years. Nimmo's DRS was -3 and his speed is about 50 percentile among CF, but Taylor sort of proves you dont need elite speed to play CF well.

There's a large positional bonus going from LF to CF, its -7 in LF and +5 in CF. So if we had to switch Nimmo to LF his 4.5 war becomes 3.3

BUt lets say Nimmo can hold onto CF for two years, his OAA seems fine if not his arm, and then 2 years in LF.

2 x 4.5 + 2 x 3.3 = 15.5 WAR

but he seems to miss about 25% of the games, so multiply by .75 = 12 WAR

plus whatever WAR he can generate after age 33. Yeah I guess he's a reasonable bet to be worth 16 WAR

Still have some doubts.

Ron Santo tied for the league lead in triples with 13 in 1964, going 3 for 7 in SBs. Rice led the league with 15 in 1978 but was 7 for 12 in steals; the year before he also hit 15 with 5 steals but 15 didn't lead the league. Triples have always been a bit about power of the line drive gap variety at least.

So if we had to switch Nimmo to LF his 4.5 war becomes 3.3

But presumably his DRS goes up because now he's being comped to sluggish LF. This is where dWAR is supposed to come in, probably especially for OF. Playing time aside, DRS rates him as -4 per year in CF, +9 in LF and +3 in RF for his career. So you lose 12 runs in Rpos and you gain 13 runs in Rfield. Or, as bWAR puts it, he has 0 dWAR and, give or take, your average fielder is an average OFer. Anyway, under dWAR "theory", Nimmo's WAR wouldn't change one bit moving to LF.

Statcast compares to the average OF, not the average at the position. Statcast actually likes him quite a bit, especially this year with +6 outs, +5 runs. For his career, they have him at +17 outs, +9 during his time in CF. That's probably roughly in line with DRS -- near as I can tell, the "average OF" in statcast is, give or take, an average RF. Nimmo is likely a bit below-average in CF, average or a bit above in RF and clearly above-average in LF.

He’s always hit

I'm being annoying I know but he doesn't "hit." His only outstanding offensive skill is his ability to draw a walk; he's also a good but not great average hitter. His career BABIP is 336 which is very, very good but, for example, his avg EV and HH% are just a bit above league-average. It's his 14% walk rate that sets him apart. Nothing wrong with that, he's shown he can sustain it (but just 10.6% this year). In terms of comps, I suspect he looks a good bit like that NPB player the Red Sox signed the other day except of course we know Nimmo can do it in the majors. But I also don't see any obvious reason other than health that he should project any worse than the HoVG's Jose Cruz (a whopping 36 WAR from 30-37).

But sure this is another contract this offseason that basically expects the guy to repeat his late 20s (16 WAR) through his early 30s. That seems reasonable in this case then you take what you can get from 35-37. I don't want to say the injury works in his favor but in thinking about how this is likely to work out, something like (everything below is made up):

50% chance he gets healthy, 50% chance he maintains this level of production, giving ...
1/4 he does both and you get 25-30 WAR
1/4 he gets healthy but declines and you get 15-20 WAR
1/4 he doesn't get healthy but stays productive and you get 15-20 WAR
1/4 chance of substantial collapse and you get 5-10 WAR

Sure, if you had to pick one guy to go Heyward/Crawford, he's probably the guy you'd choose. But at least this contract is $20 M raw dollars below Heyward and only 1/$20 above Crawford before you even factor in inflation (but then you factor in age ...)

But presumably his DRS goes up because now he's being comped to sluggish LF. This is where dWAR is supposed to come in,

WHOA STOP! You just went over this a few days ago I swear.

EDIT Never mind. You were talking statcast not DRS. Me very confused today.

Thanks for the additional insights on this Walt. Very useful.

I feel like Nimmo’s defense is especially hard to project because by the eye test, most would agree that he’s improved his defense substantially over the last few years, with last year being one where it really put it all together. He’s always had the physical skills and thankfully he was able to convert that into performance before he really started to age.

Broken record here, but as long as he stays healthy, I would expect him to produce the 15 to 20 WAR to justify the contract in his next three to four years before declining. I know it’s always more of a crapshoot than we think post-30, but I wouldn’t expect his performance to crater in the near term. But I suppose you’d have said the same about Crawford and Heyward. His game is a bit different from those guys though.

I'm being annoying I know but he doesn't "hit." His only outstanding offensive skill is his ability to draw a walk; he's also a good but not great average hitter. His career BABIP is 336 which is very, very good but, for example, his avg EV and HH% are just a bit above league-average. It's his 14% walk rate that sets him apart.

Well, he also gets hit by a lot of pitches (led NL in 2018, 6th in 2020, 4th last year) and he hits a good number of triples (4th in 2018 and 2020, led league last year). Both things that don't necessarily stand out on his baseball card but add real value, and help account for the reason that his WAR doesn't necessarily match up with his triple crown stats. Although getting hit by a lot of pitches probably increases his injury risk.

I noted in the Silver Slugger thread that he was probably the fourth best offensive outfielder in the NL this year, behind the three winners.

OK, 14% walk rate and 2% HBP rate ... makes him even less of a "hitter." Triples are balls squeaked into the RF corner, doubles that bounced away or doubles for slower guys. He might rank well in the league but his career high in triples is 8, he's not cranking out 20 of the things a year and it's not like they don't get added into ISO.

But yes ... as long as he can maintain a 385 OBP with a league average-ish ISO, he'll provide well above-average offensive production ... basically the Roy White of his generation. Given how far above average OBP he is, he's got plenty of room to decline so there's no reason I'm aware of to not think he'll remain at least average for the next 5 years or so. It would be interesting to look at how well the offense of high-walk (and HBP), average/low power guys ages. I'm not sure how many good comps there are -- he's certainly a better "hitter" than Butler or Luis Castillo for example. And of course for all we know he's about to go Dwight Evans on us and start posting ISOs > 200.

So, looks like the Mets signed Senga too, 5/75 with no trade and opt out after third year. Obviously pretty great on its own, but also pretty nifty that the Mets will get a pick for Bassitt, provided he does eventually sign somewhere.

deGrom walks, they lose Walker and likely Bassitt, and probably have a better rotation, certainly better than they started with last year after deGrom went down. Definitely new times in Flushing.

I know Lassus is all about another catcher, and I certainly wouldn’t protest (though I do want Alvarez to get the bulk of the playing time, as much as any catcher does anyway), but I’d really just like another hitter to work at DH. Mets are still lacking in power and I don’t think Vogelbach and the gang are enough.

I have this new theory called the "Babe Ruth solves everything theory." No, really, seriously, you stick Babe in RF, have Marte move to LF, and you've pretty much solved everything Mets offense (catcher notwithstanding, but did I mention we have Babe Ruth?)

In other, more realistic/modern words, we need a bats left corner outfielder. I agree that the Vogelbach solution (though I love the dude) isn't enough, and makes need for Babe Ruth greater. I hear Bonds has retired. Can anybody swing us a swinging left corner OF of Ruth/Bonds hitting ability?

What? You're telling me that isn't easy?

I know Lassus is all about another catcher, and I certainly wouldn’t protest (though I do want Alvarez to get the bulk of the playing time, as much as any catcher does anyway), but I’d really just like another hitter to work at DH. Mets are still lacking in power and I don’t think Vogelbach and the gang are enough.

Why can't Alvarez be the DH against lefties?

Can anybody swing us a swinging left corner OF of Ruth/Bonds hitting ability?

The guy closest to Ruth/Bonds signed an extension with the other New York team.

Alvarez can and will DH, I’m sure, but I’d rather not have all my eggs in the Francishise basket. Even if he turns out to be great, it doesn’t mean he’ll be great as a rookie. The Mets had/have a pretty good lineup but it’s lacking some power. Basically, I liked what they were trying to do when they acquired Ruff, in theory (even though I personally would have just let JD Davis work through it). Doesn’t have to be a left masher either, just another option would be nice.

Maybe I’m being greedy, given what they’ve done, but given what they’ve done, they pretty much need to win the World Series now. So best fill all the holes as much as possible, Babe Ruth not necessary.

Maybe I’m being greedy,

Maybe? ;-)

There are no stats that bear this out, but I really think there is more power in Nimmo's bat than we have seen so far.

There are no stats that bear this out, but I really think there is more power in Nimmo's Ichiro's bat than we have seen so far.

Ah yes, I remember it well.

https://theathletic.com/3962332/2022/12/05/mlb-rule-changes-free-agency-offseason/

[...] But which remaining free agents could get a boost from seeing the shift disappear? Here’s your top three, via Statcast, in most pulled groundballs hit to the right side at 100 mph or harder in 2022, among still-unsigned free agents:

Brandon Nimmo — 22
David Peralta — 19
Josh Bell* — 16
(*as a left-handed hitter only)

(Source: Statcast / Baseball Savant) [...]


The ability to use speed hasn’t been this valuable since Whitey Herzog stopped managing. So which prominent free agents show up on the Statcast sprint speed leaderboard? Here are the biggest names:

Trea Turner
30.3 feet/second

Adam Engel 
29.2 feet/second

Brandon Nimmo
29.1 feet/second

(Source: Statcast / Baseball Savant) [...]