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Saturday, April 02, 2022

Sources: OF Justin Upton designated for assignment by Los Angeles Angels

Outfielder Justin Upton has been designated for assignment by the Los Angeles Angels, sources told ESPN’s Jeff Passan on Saturday.

The Angels will owe him $28 million for this season, the final one in a five-year deal.

Given the money still owed to Upton, it’s unlikely any team would deal for his services, paving the way for him to become a free agent.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: April 02, 2022 at 01:45 PM | 36 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: angels, justin upton

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   1. JimMusComp misses old primer... Posted: April 02, 2022 at 02:35 PM (#6070103)
So, Marsh and Adell everyday?

I could see this in June - but now seems a little early. He’s hitting well, could platoon with Walsh at 1st, etc.

If he hit vs. LHP only he might have been a plus on the field.

Again, he’s likely almost done, but I’d have used him carefully for 2 months to see if platoons would have helped him.
   2. Walt Davis Posted: April 02, 2022 at 03:22 PM (#6070106)
A weird career, he went from a steady 4-WAR player to below-replacement in one offseason between 2018 and 2019. An interesting contract history in that he's been through every type. He signed a buyout of his last pre-arb year, all 3 arb years and first 2 FA years with AZ for $51 M. AZ traded off the two FA years to Atlanta for a mix of prospects; the Braves traded him to the Padres a year later for a mix of prospects. Finally an FA he signed with Detroit for 6/$132 with an opt-out after the 2nd year. Det sent him to LAA at the end of Aug in that 2nd year in a salary dump. Coming off a 5+ WAR year, the Angels bought out the option by adding another year onto the end of the deal (and shifting some salary from the start to the end). He did respond with a good year in year 1 of the new deal but has been below-replacement since then and obviously the Angels wish they hadn't made that deal.

The final tally:

BJ/Melvin: 5858 PA, 17 WAR, -3.5 WAA
Justin: 7592 PA, 33 WAR, 8 WAA

Solid totals in the "brothers where both had substantial careers" category.
   3. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: April 02, 2022 at 04:06 PM (#6070109)
BJ/Melvin: 5858 PA, 17 WAR, -3.5 WAA
Justin: 7592 PA, 33 WAR, 8 WAA

Solid totals in the "brothers where both had substantial careers" category.


Others:

Joe DiMaggio - 79
Dom - 34

George Brett - 89
Ken - 14

Ken Boyer - 63 WAR
Clete - 28

Felipe Alou - 42
Matty - 23

Brett Boone - 23
Aaron - 14

Ed Delahanty - 70
Jim - 19

JD Drew - 45
Stephen - 16

Robbie Alomar - 67
Sandy - 14

Wes Ferrell - 60
Rick - 31

Mort Cooper - 33
Walker - 27

Phil Niekro - 96
Joe - 30

Gaylord Perry - 90
Jim - 42

Stan Coveleski - 62
Harry - 17

Bob Forsch - 24
Ken - 26

Jered Weaver - 35
Jeff - 15


Well, I'm tired of looking. Probably many more who were better, not counting the pairs where one was a superstar and one a cipher, like the Aarons, Torres, and Murrays*. Solid, sure. Maybe top 20? The Weavers are almost perfect parallels, in terms of value and distribution of value.

Note, I'm not claiming the Boone's were better. They clearly weren't, which surprised me.

*which is covered by the disclaimer "brothers where both had substantial careers" category.
   4. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: April 02, 2022 at 04:26 PM (#6070113)
Not gonna post the numbers, but others who were better: Giles, Hernandez, Martinez, Seager, Waner. 20th ish seems about right.
   5. vortex of dissipation Posted: April 02, 2022 at 05:10 PM (#6070118)
The Waners were the first that came to mind. Granted, Lloyd is an iffy Hall-of-Famer, but he was still a fine player. The Waners have 104.3 WAR, which is pretty damn good.
   6. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: April 02, 2022 at 05:43 PM (#6070122)
The Waners were the first that came to mind. Granted, Lloyd is an iffy Hall-of-Famer, but he was still a fine player. The Waners have 104.3 WAR, which is pretty damn good.


Well, yes. But combined WAR is an unsatisfying answer. Otherwise, the best are the Aarons with 143 and -3. But the Waners are a decent candidate for best position player pair. Though the Dimaggio's clearly outclass them. Joe was better than Paul, Dom better than Lloyd. They are better than the Boyers though. The best pairs are pitchers though, Niekros and Perrys. The Martinez brothers are also better than the Waners, maybe a touch below the DiMaggios.

I'd rank them Perry, Niekro, DiMaggio, Martinez, Waner.
   7. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: April 02, 2022 at 07:32 PM (#6070129)
Pujols last year and now Upton? It’s almost enough to make one think that the Angels have finally learned what sunk costs are.
   8. JRVJ Posted: April 02, 2022 at 08:01 PM (#6070134)
$106MM, 1.7 BWAR.

Yikes.
   9. The Duke Posted: April 02, 2022 at 08:36 PM (#6070140)
Tommie Aaron and Hank Aaron at 143 and -3. For a nice total of 140

Paul dean and Dizzy got 11 and 46
   10. The Duke Posted: April 02, 2022 at 08:37 PM (#6070141)
Cloyd Boyer adds another .6
Jesus Alou adds another .6
   11. sunday silence (again) Posted: April 02, 2022 at 08:41 PM (#6070142)
Upton's almost 6 WAR age 29 season was fueled by a .340 babip. Also odd his Ks didnt jumped upward when his off production cratered.
   12. John DiFool2 Posted: April 02, 2022 at 09:08 PM (#6070144)
Both brothers hit exactly .300 in their third seasons, as 21 & 22 year olds respectively. They never did again.
   13. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: April 02, 2022 at 09:12 PM (#6070147)
Well, yes. But combined WAR is an unsatisfying answer.

Bill James looked at a similar question (best baseball families) in the NHBA and used a weighted total to emphasize the requirement for multiple successful family members. Brother 1 + 2*Brother 2 puts the Perrys and Niekros comfortably ahead of the Aarons, for instance.
   14. John Northey Posted: April 02, 2022 at 10:20 PM (#6070162)
I remember when many thought Sandy Alomar Jr would be a bigger star than Roberto. 1990 ROY, 3 time all-star by 1992. Sadly injuries a massive issue, as his 2nd 100 game season didn't happen until he was 30. Just 4 100 game seasons in a 20 year career. His 132 games at age 24, as ROY, was his peak for games. At 31 he had his only 3+ WAR season (3.9), and only had 3 years of 2+ WAR (ages 24/28/31) Yet a 6 time all-star (fan voting). We didn't know at the time, but Roberto's rookie year WAR was higher than anything Sandy would do in his whole career - 4.4. His average over 17 years was 3.94 WAR a year. Wow. A shame he turned out to be a bit of a scum bag in the end.
   15. vortex of dissipation Posted: April 03, 2022 at 12:20 AM (#6070171)
Sandy Alomar Jr played parts of 20 seasons in MLB, and only one inning in the field at any position other than catcher - one inning at first base with no fielding chances in 1996. You almost wish he hadn't done that, just to keep the slate clean.
   16. Walt Davis Posted: April 03, 2022 at 02:42 AM (#6070175)
Upton's almost 6 WAR age 29 season was fueled by a .340 babip.

Not particularly unusual for a good hitter. His career BABIP is 319; from 20-29 it was 329; he topped 340 at ages 21-22; was still at 321 the year after the 340. Generally speaking, if you're gonna K that much, you need an above-average BABIP just to survive (e.g. Javy Baez is at 335 career) unless you're one of those super-freaks (McGwire career BABIP 255; Gallo 264) who hits a HR every 8-10 times you make contact. Upton had about 340 BIP that year so, vs his career average, we're talking 7 hits (4-5 singles, 2-3 doubles in his case). Well within random variation (one SD would be about 12.5 hits off the top of my head).

Upton always hit the ball hard. Of course we only have statcast for the last few years but his career EV is 90.6 (avg 88.4) and he was over 91 in 2018 and 2020. Career hard-hit is 46% (league 39). Like everybody these days he Ks too much but he balanced it with a good BB rate. Unlike a lot of TTO guys, he wasn't an extreme FB hitter and GBs usually help BABIP. He just got old fast.

Now when Tim Anderson put up a 399 BABIP in 2019, that was obviously unsustainable ... except he put up a 383 in 2020 and 372 in 2021 ... granted, those aren't 399 but they're crazy high.
   17. Walt Davis Posted: April 03, 2022 at 02:51 AM (#6070176)
Albert strikes me as an unusual BABIP case. From 21-28, he had a 319 BABIP including 340 at 28. He never topped 300 again. In fact, from 33 to the end, he never topped 265. Because of that, his career BABIP is 285. I don't know if anybody pinpointed it at the time (probably) but it's a big change. It wasn't the result of becoming a massive ISO hitter nor did the K-rate change. Running speed dropped which never helps, GB rate stayed about the same though.

BABIP will usually drop some in the early aging process and then the batter might start selling out to produce (or just get old) and have it drop further. But I don't think it's common for something as dramatic as Pujols.
   18. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: April 03, 2022 at 10:45 AM (#6070184)
Bill James looked at a similar question (best baseball families) in the NHBA and used a weighted total to emphasize the requirement for multiple successful family members. Brother 1 + 2*Brother 2 puts the Perrys and Niekros comfortably ahead of the Aarons, for instance.


Especially since Tommy had a negative WAR.

Aarons - 137
Niekros - 156
Perrys - 172

By this method, Joe and Dom DiMaggio (147) are ahead of the Aarons, but Pedro and Ramon Martinez (136) are behind, so it's still unsatisfying.
   19. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: April 03, 2022 at 12:16 PM (#6070188)
By this method, Joe and Dom DiMaggio (147) are ahead of the Aarons, but Pedro and Ramon Martinez (136) are behind, so it's still unsatisfying.

Yeah, I think it worked a bit better with Win Shares and the resultant lower baseline.
   20. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: April 03, 2022 at 12:25 PM (#6070189)
Are you sure the adjustment wasn't a harmonic mean, like he did for power-speed number?
   21. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: April 03, 2022 at 12:35 PM (#6070190)
Doing it like power speed number is tricky with the existence of negative WAR, as it will result in a negative total. And you can't just ignore the negative sign, because the worse the second player is, the greater the absolute value of the total is. You could treat the negative WAR as 0, which means the Aarons get a score of 0, which may be the right way too look at it.

But even if you do ignore the negative sign, the Aarons get only 6.

2(playerA WAR)(Player B WAR)/(player A war + player B war).

For the Aarons, it's 2(143)(-3)/ (143-3)= -6
   22. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: April 03, 2022 at 12:40 PM (#6070191)
By that method, the Uptons score 22, the Alomars 23, and the Drews 28, which doesn't seem quite right either.
   23. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: April 03, 2022 at 02:50 PM (#6070198)
I think both players having positive WAR should be a requirement.
   24. Walt Davis Posted: April 03, 2022 at 03:15 PM (#6070201)
Mea culpa: I did miscalculate the SD in #16 ... it's a bit over 8 (binomial).

The important thing about these formulas is that we keep re-working them until we find one that puts the Uptons high enough that my "solid" claim is indisputable. Have we tried pancake flops yet?

I can think of no statistical justification for it but one way to boost the lesser brother (or reduce the greater) is to weight them both to the lower PA/IP total.

(PA2/PA1)*WAR1 + WAR2

Brings the Aaron's down to around 7. The Uptons at 42. The Forsches around 42 (who are you weirdos who go to the trouble of adding in batting WAR?) The DiMaggios around 100 which seems about right.

Somebody else can figure out the Bretts. Probably want some sort of C adjustment for the Alomars; might need to do something if one brother is a starter and the other a reliever.
   25. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: April 03, 2022 at 03:59 PM (#6070207)
I like it, but how do you do pitchers? Pedro has nearly 1000 more IP than Ramon, but only 76% of his PAs. By your formula, going by PA, they score 83, which may be about right. But if Pedro happened to play his entire career in the AL, they would be lucky to score 10. Pedro got 21 PA in his 8 years in BOS with about 73% of Ramon's career total.
   26. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: April 03, 2022 at 06:10 PM (#6070225)
What about the worst? (The Throneberrys are a combined -3.4 WAR.)
   27. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: April 03, 2022 at 07:51 PM (#6070237)
Are you sure the adjustment wasn't a harmonic mean, like he did for power-speed number?

James definitely used a weighted sum, because the weights increased for larger families - the Boones and Alous were counting four players each, with sums of (P1 + 2*P2 + 3*P3 + 4*P4). Harmonic mean would have penalized a family that added a third player worse than the first two.
   28. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: April 03, 2022 at 08:28 PM (#6070242)
OK.
   29. sunday silence (again) Posted: April 03, 2022 at 10:46 PM (#6070257)
. Have we tried pancake flops yet?


The only mathematical paper published by Bill Gates has to do with pancakes flops.

you can do interesting things with pancake flopping and a deck of cards.
   30. Cooper Nielson Posted: April 03, 2022 at 10:59 PM (#6070258)
What about the worst? (The Throneberrys are a combined -3.4 WAR.)

A few that I found...

Ryan Minor (-2.5) and Damon Minor (0.1) combined for -2.4
Andujar Cedeno (-2.8) and Domingo Cedeno (-1.4) combined for -4.2
Marty Bergen (0.9) and Bill Bergen (-6.9) combined for -6.0.
   31. Cooper Nielson Posted: April 03, 2022 at 11:09 PM (#6070260)
Melvin Nieves (-2.3) and Wil Nieves (-2.2) combined for a nicely balanced -4.5.
   32. SoSH U at work Posted: April 04, 2022 at 02:05 AM (#6070271)
With war credit, the DiMaggios could have the top spot under any formula. Joe lost ages 28-30 and Dom lost 26-28.
   33. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: April 04, 2022 at 12:21 PM (#6070283)
Upon was the no. 1 overall pick in the deep 2005 draft. There's a lot of very good careers in that first round, but also a whiff of disappointment imo. Upton, Alex Gordon, Zimmerman, Braun, Tulo,
and McCutchen were all taken in the first dozen picks and finished between 32 and 47 WAR. Ricky Romero, Cameron Maybin, and Jay Bruce were also among the first dozen and had several quality seasons (the only real lemons in the first 12 were Jeff Clement and Wade Townsend, which seems like a high hit rate). Later in the first round you have Jacoby Ellsbury, Matt Garza, and Colby Rasmus.

I wouldn't expect all of these guys to remain productive into their 30s, but in eyeballing that list it seems like they all fell off early. 10 years ago I would have guessed that at least 2-3 of them would be productive long enough to get to 50-60 WAR territory. Instead none of them did.
   34. Walt Davis Posted: April 04, 2022 at 07:42 PM (#6070348)
Yeah, given he was in the majors so young, J Upton seemed a pretty decent bet for at least borderline HoF territory as a career compiler if nothing else. Zimmerman was on a legit HoF track through age 25 (already at 25 WAR, coming off 6-7 seasons).

Braun 23-28: 147 OPS+, 33+ WAR
Votto 23-28: 155 OPS+, 28 WAR
Miggy 23-28: 156 OPS+, 31 WAR

33+ for Braun because I want to ignore that -32 Rfield in his rookie year at 3B -- yes he was very, very bad, maybe even that bad, but even if he was, the team had enough sense to move him ASAP so I still don't want to count it as a "career negative." Of course I've heard rumors that Braun may have had some chemical assistance. :-)
   35. Sweatpants Posted: April 04, 2022 at 10:55 PM (#6070369)
Upon was the no. 1 overall pick in the deep 2005 draft. There's a lot of very good careers in that first round, but also a whiff of disappointment imo. Upton, Alex Gordon, Zimmerman, Braun, Tulo, and McCutchen were all taken in the first dozen picks and finished between 32 and 47 WAR. Ricky Romero, Cameron Maybin, and Jay Bruce were also among the first dozen and had several quality seasons (the only real lemons in the first 12 were Jeff Clement and Wade Townsend, which seems like a high hit rate). Later in the first round you have Jacoby Ellsbury, Matt Garza, and Colby Rasmus.
Part of the problem there was that, of those guys, only Braun, McCutchen, and maybe Tulowitzki (I don't really remember what peak Tulowitzki's numbers were like) were ever true star-level players for an extended period of time. Most of them would have needed to be super compilers to have a shot at the hall.
   36. Cooper Nielson Posted: April 05, 2022 at 02:27 AM (#6070384)
Upton, Alex Gordon, Zimmerman, Braun, Tulo, and McCutchen were all taken in the first dozen picks and finished between 32 and 47 WAR.

McCutchen's still active and was useful (1.4 WAR, 2.1 oWAR) if not great last year. He could still break 50 WAR (currently 46) by hangin' around.

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