If he's healthy, this is a very team friendly deal. But, I guess that is the big "if". Fairbanks is smart to take the deal since its his first genuinely real big payout and it mainly covers his arbitration years anyhow.

I don't think it's that team-friendly for arb years. If he was a FA, what would he have gotten? 3/20-25?

I think Snapper's right on this one. Closers get paid in arb but, to date, non-closers haven't really. Mainly this deal allows the Rays to move him to a traditional closer's role if they want to without taking the financial hit. Some arb year totals

Estevez <6
L Jackson <5
Lugo 8
Strahm <7
Montero <6

As a super-2 non-closer back in the 2018-19 offseason, Taylor Rogers got $1.5 M. He became a closer in 2019 and the next year he got $4.5, followed by $6 and $7.3.

So 3/$12 for the arb years of a non-closer is not cheap. Tampa hasn't used a regular closer since 2019 -- the immortal Emilio Pagan who Tampa immediately sent to SD for Manuel Margot; Pagan has been below replacement since. Pagan's arb years cost $7.3

EDIT: So the option year might be the key to the deal from Tampa's perspective.

I'm assuming he'll be the closer if healthy. If not, $12M is just like accidentally signing Jesus Aguilar to a multi-year deal.

The odds of Fairbanks being bad if he's on the field are fairly low.