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Monday, January 27, 2020

Starling Marte, D-backs trade | MLB.com

It’s now cheaper to pay the salaries of all Pirates players than getting two beers and a hot dog at Fenway.

he D-backs have agreed to a trade with the Pirates for center fielder Starling Marte, sources told MLB.com on Monday. Along with Marte, Pittsburgh will send $1.5 million to Arizona and receive right-handed prospect Brennan Malone and shortstop prospect Liover Peguero along with $250,000 in international pool money for this year in return, per a source. Neither team has confirmed the deal or the exchange.

Jim Furtado Posted: January 27, 2020 at 03:44 PM | 50 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: diamondbacks, pirates, starling marte, trade

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   1. Walt Davis Posted: January 27, 2020 at 04:04 PM (#5919689)
The Cubs better not have been able to beat this deal but it sure looks like they easily could have. MLB.com hasn't updated their lists since end of season but neither of these guys are in the top 100 and AZ has like 5 guys in the top 100. Marte in CF is pretty much exactly what the Cubs need.
   2. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: January 27, 2020 at 04:15 PM (#5919695)
Who did Marte get in return?
   3. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: January 27, 2020 at 04:17 PM (#5919697)
Ahhh, nice to have the old familiar Pirates back that we'd gotten to know and love so well, existing for no purpose but to fatten Bob Nutting's wallet and provide opposition for the real teams to play and usually beat.
   4. Dock Ellis Posted: January 27, 2020 at 04:20 PM (#5919699)
19 y/o Brennan Malone was the 33rd overall pick last year and has only pitched 8 pro innings so perhaps his lack of inclusion on Top 100 lists is not indicative of his true prospectness.
   5. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 27, 2020 at 04:21 PM (#5919700)
Per Fangraphs those guys are 8th and 12th in the Arizona system. Puegero looks to be top-150, Malone top-200.

That's an awful return for PIT. Salary dump. Sad.
   6. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 27, 2020 at 04:22 PM (#5919703)
19 y/o Brennan Malone was the 33rd overall pick last year and has only pitched 8 pro innings so perhaps his lack of inclusion on Top 100 lists is not indicative of his true prospectness.

Fangraphs lists him on their "Board". He just gets a 45, which is really not that good.
   7. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: January 27, 2020 at 04:32 PM (#5919707)
I like Malone - he was considered a mid-1st round talent by many, as I understood at the time (and I took him in a mock draft at the bottom of the first round).
BA had them 7th and 9th in that same system, which is a pretty deep one. (Both are 55/Extreme risk prospects, by their grading system.)
Ben Clemens of FG called this a win/win deal, which is more or less my early take. (He is not one of their prospect guys.)
   8. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 27, 2020 at 04:50 PM (#5919713)
Ben Clemens of FG called this a win/win deal,

Win-win because the Pirates don't actually care about winning.
   9. Rennie's Tenet Posted: January 27, 2020 at 04:54 PM (#5919714)
Tanking is a slippery slope. When you're competing with teams that lost 103, 105, 108, and 114 games last season, you have plan to lose 120 if you want to be sure of that #1 pick.
   10. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: January 27, 2020 at 04:56 PM (#5919718)
This is what I thought they hired Cherington to do, tear things down and stockpile prospects.
Doesn't mean that Nutting isn't cheap and bad, sure, but I'm okay with this here IFFFF they'll fund a good team, should it arise.
   11. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: January 27, 2020 at 04:59 PM (#5919720)
The Pirates aren't tanking. In fact I'm sure Nutting is hoping they exceed expectations and win 73 games, since getting the 8th-slot bonus pool rather than 2nd-slot is an extra million dollars in his pocket.

He just isn't going to spend a dime more on the team than absolutely necessary. Whether they win 48 games or 63 or 75 or 100... makes no difference to him. He's just there to pocket the revenue sharing money. The Pirates' role in Major League Baseball, from the perspective of both their owner and the owners of the real teams, is to be the Washington Generals. The real teams pay them to provide them with a reliably beatable opponent.

Doesn't mean that Nutting isn't cheap and bad, sure, but I'm okay with this here IFFFF they'll fund a good team, should it arise.


It's already clear that he will not. A good Pirates team DID (accidentally, from Nutting's perspective) arise almost a decade ago, and he didn't spend a dime. He won't. Ever.
   12. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: January 27, 2020 at 05:19 PM (#5919732)
What's the alternative, lose now with him?
   13. bbmck Posted: January 27, 2020 at 05:49 PM (#5919745)
Every player who has put up a 4+ position player WAR season for Nutting's Pirates: Andrew McCutchen (5), Starling Marte (4), Russell Martin (2), Josh Harrison (1) and Jung Ho Kang (1).

4+ pitching WAR: Jameson Taillon (1), Gerrit Cole (1), Paul Maholm (1)

During the Nutting Era (2007-2019) there have been 619 seasons of 4+ position player WAR or just over 20 per team, with slightly different total because of mid-season trades:

34 - BOS: Dustin Pedroia (7)
34 - NYY: Robinson Cano (6)
27 - LAD: Justin Turner (5)
26 - DET: Miguel Cabrera (8)
25 - LAA: Mike Trout (8)

25 - TBR: Ben Zobrist (6)
23 - ARI: Paul Goldschmidt (6)
23 - CLE: Francisco Lindor (5)
23 - COL: Nolan Arenado and Troy Tulowitzki (6)
23 - TEX: Adrian Beltre and Ian Kinsler (6)

22 - ATL: Freddie Freeman (5)
22 - CIN: Joey Votto (8)
22 - TOR: Jose Bautista (5)
21 - HOU: Jose Altuve (5)
20 - BAL: Adam Jones and Manny Machado (3)

20 - STL: Albert Pujols (5)
19 - MIL: Ryan Braun (6)
18 - MIN: Joe Mauer (5)
18 - OAK: 6 players (2)
18 - WSN: Anthony Rendon (4)

17 - PHI: Chase Utley (4)
17 - SFG: Buster Posey (5)
16 - MIA: Giancarlo Stanton (4)
16 - NYM: David Wright (4)
16 - SEA: Ichiro Suzuki, Kyle Seager and Nelson Cruz (3)

15 - CHC: Anthony Rizzo (4)
14 - KCR: Alex Gordon (4)
13 - PIT: Andrew McCutchen (5)
12 - CHW: Adam Eaton (3)
8 - SDP: Adrian Gonzalez (2)

308 seasons of 4+ pitching WAR or just over 10 per team:

17 - BOS: Jon Lester (4)
17 - CHW: Chris Sale (4)
17 - CLE: Corey Kluber (5)
16 - LAD: Clayton Kershaw (9)
15 - DET: Justin Verlander (8)

15 - PHI: Cole Hamels (7)
15 - WSN: Max Scherzer (5)
12 - NYY: CC Sabathia (3)
11 - ARI: Zack Greinke (3)
11 - CHC: Ted Lilly (3)

11 - HOU: Dallas Keuchel (3)
11 - NYM: Jacob deGrom (4)
10 - SFG: Matt Cain (4)
10 - STL: Adam Wainwright (4)
10 - TEX: CJ Wilson and Matt Harrison (2)

9 - ATL: Julio Teheran and Tim Hudson (2)
9 - COL: Jhoulys Chacin and Ubaldo Jimenez (2)
9 - LAA: Jered Weaver (3)
9 - SEA: Felix Hernandez (7)
9 - TBR: David Price and James Shields (2)

7 - BAL: Jeremy Guthrie (3)
7 - CIN: Johnny Cueto (2)
7 - MIA: Jose Fernandez and Josh Johnson (2)
7 - TOR: Roy Halladay (2)
6 - MIN: Scott Baker (2)

5 - KCR: Zack Greinke and Gil Meche (2)
5 - OAK: 5 players (1)
3 - MIL: CC Sabathia, Ben Sheets and Chase Anderson (1)
3 - PIT: Jameson Taillon, Gerrit Cole and Paul Maholm (1)
2 - SDP: Jake Peavy (2)
   14. formerly dp Posted: January 27, 2020 at 06:34 PM (#5919750)
How were the Mets not in on him for this price?
   15. Walt Davis Posted: January 27, 2020 at 06:46 PM (#5919751)
What's the alternative, lose now with him?

Alternative #1: Realize that 2/$23 for a player of Marte's quality is a steal and that contending teams should be willing to provide better prospects than a 19-y.o. pitcher (even if he is a "prospect" he's years away and double-TINSTAAPP applies) and a 19-yo SS who isn't high on anybody's radar yet. That the Pirates somehow got suckered into adding money to the deal is double chutzpah. AZ has at least 4 guys in the top 100 at mlb.com and none of them are in this deal (and the highest is #43, we ain't talking Luis Robert here); even the Cubs have 4 guys in the top 100 (about the same rankings as AZ). Why they might even consider extending this effective, popular player. Anyway, if this is the going price for a player of Marte's quality then...

Alternative #2: Win more games this year retaining a popular player at a cheap price which is quite attractive given the guys you just traded him for are probably not ever going to add many wins in the future.

No offense but your (quite popular) formulation pisses me off. There is a difference between losing 100 and losing 95 and losing 90. Yes, the Pirates were not going to make the playoffs in 2020 ... guess what, there's very little chance they will in 2025 either. Their alternative is almost always "lose now with whoever" and the only way that having a valuable asset like Starling Marte provide enough future value to change that picture is to trade him for a good return. So the alternative is "LOSE FEWER GAMES WITH HIM" which would seem kinda the point of playing games and you stick with that unless you find a trade that makes is substantially likely you will WIN MORE GAMES in the future.

Sure, losing 6 extra games over the next couple of years is no big deal in the grand scheme ... neither is adding 6 wins 5+ years from now.
   16. JJ1986 Posted: January 27, 2020 at 07:28 PM (#5919764)
Trying to name players who were going to be in the Pirates starting lineup next year, I got to Josh Bell and then got stuck. I'm not sure who any of the 7 others are.
   17. Sunday silence: Play Guess How long season lasts Posted: January 27, 2020 at 07:36 PM (#5919765)
Christ at least the Astros management cared about winning. This team doesnt give a sheet.
   18. PreservedFish Posted: January 27, 2020 at 07:51 PM (#5919767)
Trying to name players who were going to be in the Pirates starting lineup next year, I got to Josh Bell and then got stuck.


I think their shortstop is named Kevin Newman. That sticks in my mind because he paired with a player named Kramer, right? Were they a double play team?

Gregory Polanco is still there, I think.

They had a random mediocre prospect rookie guy hit like .320 last year. Brian Williams or Brian Johnson or John Williamson some such boring name.

I think I'm stuck there. But I can name several starting pitchers.
   19. Rennie's Tenet Posted: January 27, 2020 at 08:05 PM (#5919768)
c-Jacob Stallings
1b - Bell
2b - Adam Frasier
3b - Colin Moran
ss - Kevin Newman
lf - Guillermo Heredia, Jason Martin, or someone
cf - Bryan Reynolds
rf - Gregory Polanco

   20. The Yankee Clapper Posted: January 27, 2020 at 08:19 PM (#5919770)
Alternative #1: Realize that 2/$23 for a player of Marte's quality is a steal and that contending teams should be willing to provide better prospects . . .
If other teams aren’t willing to offer more now, there’s no guarantee they will later. You’re banking on one of the few teams willing & able to spend money having an outfield injury, slumping player, or a change of heart on Marte. Could happen, but a poor first half risks Marte being worth less than he is now. The 2 prospects are only 19 - perhaps the Pirates liked what they saw. In any event, this late into the off-season, it seems likely that the Pirates thoroughly explored the market for Marte.
   21. spycake Posted: January 27, 2020 at 08:23 PM (#5919771)
Alternative #1: Realize that 2/$23 for a player of Marte's quality is a steal and that contending teams should be willing to provide better prospects than a 19-y.o. pitcher (even if he is a "prospect" he's years away and double-TINSTAAPP applies) and a 19-yo SS who isn't high on anybody's radar yet. That the Pirates somehow got suckered into adding money to the deal is double chutzpah. AZ has at least 4 guys in the top 100 at mlb.com and none of them are in this deal (and the highest is #43, we ain't talking Luis Robert here); even the Cubs have 4 guys in the top 100 (about the same rankings as AZ). Why they might even consider extending this effective, popular player. Anyway, if this is the going price for a player of Marte's quality then...


FWIW, baseballtradevalues.com pegs Marte at 18.6 median trade value, compared to Peguero at 16 and Malone at 7.5.
   22. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: January 27, 2020 at 08:28 PM (#5919772)
No offense but your (quite popular) formulation pisses me off. There is a difference between losing 100 and losing 95 and losing 90. Yes, the Pirates were not going to make the playoffs in 2020 ... guess what, there's very little chance they will in 2025 either. Their alternative is almost always "lose now with whoever" and the only way that having a valuable asset like Starling Marte provide enough future value to change that picture is to trade him for a good return. So the alternative is "LOSE FEWER GAMES WITH HIM" which would seem kinda the point of playing games and you stick with that unless you find a trade that makes is substantially likely you will WIN MORE GAMES in the future.


That's the problem, Walt. To Nutting the point of playing games isn't to win, but simply to field a team at minimal cost and cash revenue sharing checks. You are exactly correct that in most cases, there IS a difference between 62-100 and 67-95. To the Pirates' ownership, however, there is not only no difference between 62-100 and 67-95; there is no difference between 62-100 and 100-62. Marte's salary is a purely unnecessary expense.

Nutting didn't force this particular trade; that's on the baseball ops guys. What Nutting DOES do is tell them, "This is your total budget. If you want to spend more on your international recruitment, or on your coaching staff, or on your analytics department, or on new exercise equipment, then you have to reduce your major league payroll accordingly."

The thing that I somehow missed seeing for years is this: that if you own the Dodgers or Yankees or Red Sox or even the Cardinals or Nationals--that is, teams that generate more money on their own than they receive in revenue sharing--ideally you of course would rather not have to pay out revenue sharing money at all. But if you DO have to pay it out, what's better for you--if the owner that receives that money spends it on making his team tougher for your team to beat, or if he pockets the money and is content to let his team suck forever?

I used to naively wonder why the owners of the real teams tolerated other owners just taking their money and pocketing it. But actually, if you accept that there has to be revenue sharing, then Loria was, and Nutting is, the ideal recipient of that money, from the real teams' perspective. It's better for them that the Marlins and Pirates are ghost teams, the MLB schedule's equivalent of ghostrunners. They're just there to fill out your schedule--mostly with wins.
   23. Zonk. Person. Man. Camera. TV. Posted: January 27, 2020 at 08:32 PM (#5919773)
Agree with Der K and Doc.... Malone is underrated by top 100 prospect lists alone. He’s a high ceiling HS guy who doesn’t have much pro work to judge.

Idk if that’s a fair return for Marte at a slight discount - reading up on the other guy now; it’s not a guy I recognize - but maybe....
   24. Walt Davis Posted: January 27, 2020 at 09:14 PM (#5919779)
If other teams aren’t willing to offer more now, there’s no guarantee they will later. You’re banking on one of the few teams willing & able to spend money having an outfield injury

I'm not "banking" on anything. I am saying that trading a guy like Marte for this sort of return is a bad idea and if this is your only other alternative then you keep him and win more games now. Sure, once you get down to the July 2021 trading deadline, you trade Marte for whatever's available assuming you're not contending.

As to value:

Only 7 of 50+ #33 picks have even made it to 2 WAR. The best ever to date Mike Galleo at 17 WAR, one of only 4 players to pass the "Becker line" of 8 WAR. The best current ones are Eflin (3.3 career WAR entering his first arb year) and Kopech (a highly rated prospect who was hurt all of last year and might yet be good).

Of course there's nothing magic about #33. At #32 you do better with Magadan and Lacy and the potentially great Judge. 9 have reached the Becker line and another 5 have reached 2 WAR. At #31 you really hit the jackpot with Maddux and also the very good Jarrod Washburn but then there's only one more player at 8 WAR and one more that reaches 2 WAR. #34 is like #32 with Gubicza leading the way at 37 WAR, 8 players over 8 WAR (Manaea and Flaherty in this group could produce a lot more) and another 5 over 2. #35 had two jackpots in Damon and Langston but just 2 more at the Becker line and four more made it to 2 WAR.

So what does that give us ... about 250 picks that should have at least reached the majors ... call it 225 who should have at least a few years under their belts. One huge win, 4 very big wins (putting Judge here for now which might be optimistic), something like 10 very good players (about 20 WAR), another 23 made it to the Becker line and 18 made it to 2 WAR. (I hope I added those all up right) So ...

2%+ aweseome
4-5% very good
10% OK for a few years
7-8% barely useful
75% pretty much nothing

So that's Malone in the aggregate. Given he hasn't really pitched in the pros yet, we don't really have any additional information. Somebody mentioned he was tipped as maybe a mid-1st rounder. If we look at #23 (10 spots before where he was picked, arbitrary) we get more of those pretty good players but still just 8 guys who make it to the Becker line and 3 more who make it to 2 WAR. Phil Hughes, Floyd Youmans, Jason Marquis, Allan Anderson would all be well above-median outcomes for Malone.

Peguero of course we have even less info about. I'm sure we can find great players with better/worse numbers at age 18 and not-so-great players with as good or better numbers. One thing we can kinda say is that, for example, Lindor was a top-50 prospect entering his age 18 season, Correa was top 30 entering his age 18 season and Baez at least made the top 100 at age 19 so it's very unlikely he's close to that talent level (he might match Baez by year's end). But Freddy Galvis never made a top 100 and Didi didn't make one until age 23 (and hit worse at 18-19) so obviously he's not really ruled out of anything.

   25. puck Posted: January 27, 2020 at 09:24 PM (#5919780)
From the pov of the Cubs or other teams that could use a CF -- is Marte slipping? Last year was his age 30 year and both UZR and the bb-ref have his fielding declining by 10 runs in 2019.
   26. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: January 27, 2020 at 11:05 PM (#5919795)
On Malone: going into the draft, BA had him ranked 18th, MLB.com 20th, FG 23rd. This is very much the same territory where these sites had Will Wilson ranked, who was picked up by SF in exchange for absorbing Cozart’s contract (12.7m)

For the two years of surplus value Marte’s team friendly deal offers (I have him at around 23m in surplus value over that time), they got two prospects at or above Wilson in assessed value (Peguero, named the top prospect by BA, has an unusually balanced tool set (like Wilson, though Peguero is more athletic and, imo, better) -they also gave him 50s or higher across the board but he lacks patience, the power is more projection then anything, and he’s a long ways away).

Now, using the Cozart deal as a set point may not work for you. If I used Craig Edwards estimates of the value of a draft pick (and looked at Wilson/Malone at how they were rated v where they were picked), the Pirates are getting solid value. If I used his FG prospect value estimates, they didn’t. (As I’ve noted before, they’re wildly different.) I happened to have liked both of these guys going into today, and would favor higher estimates. Additionally, the Pirates should try to bunch wins (esp given their cheapness) and this is a means to do that.

Look, if you wanna give Nutting an F for this trade, for every trade, go for it. But this seems like a decent move by the GM of the actual organization.

I like it for Arizona too. Marte fits their needs (and we maybe collectively underrate how scarce solid big league outfielders are?) and the DBacks have a middle infielder logjam in the low minors.
   27. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: January 27, 2020 at 11:11 PM (#5919798)
You are exactly correct that in most cases, there IS a difference between 62-100 and 67-95.
What is that difference, and what evidence do you have to support it?
   28. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 28, 2020 at 12:19 AM (#5919807)
From the pov of the Cubs or other teams that could use a CF -- is Marte slipping? Last year was his age 30 year and both UZR and the bb-ref have his fielding declining by 10 runs in 2019.


I think it’s just noise. He didn’t look any different to the naked eye, and all his speed and defense measurements on Savant were the same as in prior seasons.
   29. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 28, 2020 at 12:22 AM (#5919808)
That's the problem, Walt. To Nutting the point of playing games isn't to win, but simply to field a team at minimal cost and cash revenue sharing checks.


Which is, no doubt, why the Pirates included $1.5M in this deal in order to get a better return - because saving money was the only goal.

Nutting is cheap. He doesn’t want to spend an extra dollar without being sure that he’ll make that dollar back. But let’s not be ridiculous about this ####.
   30. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 28, 2020 at 12:25 AM (#5919809)
reading up on the other guy now; it’s not a guy I recognize - but maybe....


BA has him as the #1 prospect in the Pioneer League, and they also said that there’s a good chance that he’s on their top 100 next year.

Opinions can differ about these specific prospects (I happen to like both), but the Pirates needed to shoot for upside in a Marte deal, and that’s definitely what they did with this package. They got two guys with star potential.
   31. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 28, 2020 at 12:30 AM (#5919810)
How were the Mets not in on him for this price?


Over the last month, they’ve gone out of their way to make it clear that they weren’t willing to trade the kind of high-upside guys that the Pirates needed to get back in a Marte deal. They explicitly placed Mauricio, Alvarez, and Allan our of bounds. Which makes their best possible two-man package... Vientos and Gimenez or Baty? I like the Arizona offer better, TBH.
   32. Buck Coats Posted: January 28, 2020 at 07:50 AM (#5919829)
You are exactly correct that in most cases, there IS a difference between 62-100 and 67-95.

What is that difference, and what evidence do you have to support it?


It's about 5 wins - I can show you the math on that if you need me to
   33. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: January 28, 2020 at 12:19 PM (#5919897)
Would the Pirates have any interest in players like JD Davis and Dominic Smith?
   34. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 28, 2020 at 12:26 PM (#5919901)
Would the Pirates have any interest in players like JD Davis and Dominic Smith?

Too good.
   35. Zonk. Person. Man. Camera. TV. Posted: January 28, 2020 at 12:41 PM (#5919911)
One other thing that I think people - specifically, Cub fans who are wondering about the prospect matching - both Malone and Peguero have a couple years (3 for Malone) where roster decisions aren't necessary.

Would the Pirates have taken, say, Brailyn Marquez and Miguel Amaya for Marte? Maybe... but both are already at the point where they have to be carried on the 40 man.

There are more "clocks" at work here than simply arbitration... Once you add a player to the 40 man, the option year clocks start.... which - in the case of Amaya and Marquez - means they have to stick by 2022 (which they might - and indeed, if they're not - they're probably failed prospects, though not necessarily worthless, as both would be just 23-24).

In short - the actual trade value of Malone/Pequero vs Marquez/Amaya just for purposes of this hypothetical is not simply a matter of comparing draft position and top 100 lists. There is significant value to a prospect who has time remaining to develop in a system before roster decisions need to be reached.
   36. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 28, 2020 at 12:58 PM (#5919918)
There are more "clocks" at work here than simply arbitration... Once you add a player to the 40 man, the option year clocks start.... which - in the case of Amaya and Marquez - means they have to stick by 2022 (which they might - and indeed, if they're not - they're probably failed prospects, though not necessarily worthless, as both would be just 23-24).

Does this really matter if the team isn't trying to win at all? I've never really heard of 40-man roster crunches on bad teams.
   37. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 28, 2020 at 01:55 PM (#5919948)
Would the Pirates have any interest in players like JD Davis and Dominic Smith?


Smith is blocked at first by Bell (and if projections are believed, isn't any better than Bell's backup, Osuna), so that one's a hard pass. Davis might have a small amount of short-term value, in that he's a better 3B than Moran, but Hayes is going to be ready for a ML audition in the second half (and maybe sooner) and Davis isn't good enough to beat him out for the job in the mid-to-long term, so that one would also be pretty pointless.

And yes, I know about how being diagnosed with sleep apnea supposedly fixed Smith, but we're still talking about a sub-200 PA playing time sample here. That's exactly how the Pirates got burned on Moran, who turned out to be a guy who had a couple of hot months in the PCL, rather than someone who was totally transformed by the launch angle revolution.
   38. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 28, 2020 at 02:03 PM (#5919954)
Does this really matter if the team isn't trying to win at all?


It matters a little bit in that those guys are going to start burning options as of this year, which puts a hard timeline in place for when they need to be ready for ML jobs. Marquez in particular only made it to A+ for five starts last year, so he's probably three years away from being ready for a ML job... and if he suffers an injury during that time, that leaves you in a pinch.
   39. PreservedFish Posted: January 28, 2020 at 02:20 PM (#5919958)
Not really seeing how a Pirates fan can blithely turn his nose up at the idea of acquiring a 27 year old coming off a 138 OPS+. Not saying that JD Davis is a better asset than whatever the DBacks offered, but come on man, the Pirates are garbage, they could absolutely use Davis somewhere.
   40. Jack Sommers Posted: January 28, 2020 at 02:22 PM (#5919961)
Mike Hazen worked for Ben Cherington. Nobody is ripping anybody off here. These guys know each other and trust each other. Peguero and Malone are two very good prospects with considerable ceiling. They were not easy for the Dbacks to give up. It clearly pained Mike Hazen to do so...as he referenced the word pain multiple times in the press call.

Malone throws in the upper 90's, and has a good curve. 19 years old, TINSTAAP and all that. Rated 15th best RHP by FG

Peguero has a 50 FV rating at FG, and is ranked 5th overall in DBacks system. It's a deeper system now than it was a year or two ago. They have another SS, Perdomo, that is a year older and a couple levels more advanced that they like better. But Peguero is the 6th best SS prospect per FG.

SS Ranking

Marte's surplus value over the next two years is roughly 15M-25M depending on how you like to do your calculations. The value of these two prospects is probably in the same range. This was a more fair deal than most people are giving credit for.

   41. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: January 28, 2020 at 02:32 PM (#5919962)
Marquez in particular only made it to A+ for five starts last year, so he's probably three years away from being ready for a ML job... and if he suffers an injury during that time, that leaves you in a pinch.

It's a Pirates thread for the most part, so I don't want to derail it, but if Marquez isn't in the bigs in 3 years something has gone terribly wrong (which, for the record, is something that very well could happen).

Also, it would be a pretty bad idea for the Cubs to trade Amaya/Marquez for Marte, even ignoring the luxury tax issue, regardless of whether it's a "fair" deal or not.
   42. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 28, 2020 at 02:34 PM (#5919964)
Not really seeing how a Pirates fan can blithely turn his nose up at the idea of acquiring a 27 year old coming off a 138 OPS+.


Davis, 2020 ZiPS: .265/.324/.462, 111 OPS+, 1.3 WAR
Davis, 2020 Steamer: .264/.329/.461, 109 wRC+ 1.2 WAR

He projects to be a placeholder-type 3B, and upgrading by one win over the Pirates' current placeholder 3B isn't really worth all that much to a team that isn't going anywhere but fifth place in the division in 2020 and has the #2 3B prospect in the minors sitting at AAA.

There are teams for whom he would make sense as a pickup. The Pirates just don't happen to be one of them. If there was a deal with the Mets that made sense for the Pirates, it was going to involve guys like Alvarez or Allan, and since the Mets didn't want to trade those guys, the Pirates traded Marte to somebody else instead.
   43. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 28, 2020 at 03:06 PM (#5919969)
Davis, 2020 ZiPS: .265/.324/.462, 111 OPS+, 1.3 WAR
Davis, 2020 Steamer: .264/.329/.461, 109 wRC+ 1.2 WAR


Those projections may well have him as a LF. If he puts up the same lousy D at 3b, he's worth an extra win.
   44. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 28, 2020 at 03:41 PM (#5919977)
Those projections may well have him as a LF. If he puts up the same lousy D at 3b, he's worth an extra win.


By saying that he'd be a one-win upgrade, I was already crediting him with an extra half-win to account for that.

Moran, 2020 Steamer: .268/.328/.423, 95 wRC+, 0.7 WAR
   45. Zonk. Person. Man. Camera. TV. Posted: January 28, 2020 at 05:47 PM (#5920054)
It's a Pirates thread for the most part, so I don't want to derail it, but if Marquez isn't in the bigs in 3 years something has gone terribly wrong (which, for the record, is something that very well could happen).


Sure... but in 3 years - he'll be coming up on his 24th birthday. If he cannot stick - that likely means he missed at least a whole season due to injury - or, he hit the AA wall or whatever.... so he's done as a prospect in a broader sense anyway.

My point is simply that service time - or rather, lack of professional service time - has value, too... particularly when we're talking about prospects.
   46. Sunday silence: Play Guess How long season lasts Posted: January 28, 2020 at 11:54 PM (#5920117)
The problem isnt so much this deal as others point out, in theory its a pretty good deal. In fact most of the PIT moves can be justified or make sense, in a vacuum. The problem is that there is no long term plan to put together a bunch of talent at the same time. It looked like the PIT were stocked in the OF and they needed upgrade the pitching but then they let the OF go and let go of COle too... If Malone or Peguero do turn out to be good players, then the Pirates will no doubt sell them or trade them for more prospects and then merry go round continues. Whatever PIT.
   47. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 29, 2020 at 10:11 AM (#5920144)
The problem is that there is no long term plan to put together a bunch of talent at the same time.


Cherington supposedly got the job based on a plan for a full tear-down and rebuild. I think they're going to tank for the next year or two and then try to put together a cluster of prospects that are all ready at the same time.
   48. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 29, 2020 at 11:20 AM (#5920163)
Cherington supposedly got the job based on a plan for a full tear-down and rebuild. I think they're going to tank for the next year or two and then try to put together a cluster of prospects that are all ready at the same time.

That's fine, if they're willing to spend money if and when that cluster arrives. You're never going to be able to fill every hole internally, and you're never going to get everybody to arrive at the same time.
   49. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: January 29, 2020 at 11:25 AM (#5920166)
You're never going to be able to fill every hole internally, and you're never going to get everybody to arrive at the same time.
The porn director's eternal dilemma.
   50. Nasty Nate Posted: January 29, 2020 at 12:05 PM (#5920180)
The Pirates ZIPs projections were just published: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2020-zips-projections-pittsburgh-pirates/

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