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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Friday, December 23, 2022Steve Cohen’s Mets spending spree and the ramifications for the rest of the league - The Athletic $
jimfurtado
Posted: December 23, 2022 at 10:08 AM | 16 comment(s)
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1. JimMusComp misses old primer... Posted: December 23, 2022 at 10:39 AM (#6110679)Eff these owners. Good for Cohen. Get these other owners to start to spend like they are billionaires.
Of course, the issue is that for all the $450M payroll, the Mets aren't really a "super-team". As of right now Fangraphs projects them at 54 WAR, vs. 53.2 for the Yankees, 52.5 for the Padres, 50.6 for the Rays, and 50.1 for the Braves. So, they're really good, but not much better than the other top teams.
But I agree while possibly a "super-team" they are a risky one with their two very expensive pitchers being 38 and 40, still no C and I don't think the Canha/Nimmo/Marte OF is going to be remembered in awe by future generations (they are all very good though and at solid prices).
Well, they're reporting 1215 total WAR for MLB. To make the math work so that the league averages 81 wins, replacement has to be at about 40.5 wins per team.
Sure, the Mets aren't a super team yet, but it certainly seems like that's the inevitable future. The Yankees have been "the Yankees" for most of their history, and the other teams you listed are in a strong phase of their cycle. But we're still in the early stages of Cohen's Mets. The minor league system had to be rebuilt, and organization had lots of issues that took time to fix. The non-fluid nature of elite talent means it takes time to really build a super team.
MLB is concerned in the same way EPL is worried about New Castle. Just last year they were in a relegation battle until they were sold to Saudi Arabia. They were able to just throw money at the problem, getting enough "good enough" players at over inflated prices to stay in the EPL comfortably. And since then they've continued to overhaul their roster. They are not an elite team YET, but it's inevitable that they will be continuously good for a long time.
These were the only guys available which explains the results but I think the other top tier teams are constructed better. LA - if and when they get Ohtani will also be formidable.
I dont question your math but that doesnt sound right Snapper. For quite a few years now its been set at 48 wins. I cant imagine they suddenly just made a major overhaul of WAR without telling us. There's no way they changed it that radically.
is it a question of overinflating Runs/win? For instance if we assume 10 runs for a win but its really 9, then it would get us closer to 48 wins.
Fangraphs replacement level is said to be 52 wins per wikipedia. Something seems off.
"Hi, glad you could come to my cocktail party. I didn't lace any mimosas with strychnine."
is it a question of overinflating Runs/win? For instance if we assume 10 runs for a win but its really 9, then it would get us closer to 48 wins.
Fangraphs replacement level is said to be 52 wins per wikipedia. Something seems off.
I don't know what to tell you. If you look at their projected WAR on their depth charts, the total is 1,215. The league has to win 2,430 game. That leaves 1,215 wins to the replacement level, which is 40.5 per team.
There can't be any other replacement level if they say there's 1215 WAR in the league. If it's set at 48 the average team wins 88.5 games.
I don't think so. FA spending is really inefficient, especially with a 90% tax on all additional payroll. Most of the best players are under control by other teams. Eventually, you run out of spots to spend money effectively.
The Yankees were never able to build a super team when they were spending three times as much as the average team. It's almost impossible.
1. C Alvarez
18. 3B Baty
37. C Parada
85. OF Ramirez
SS Mauricio and 1B-OF Vientos are the next-best who are MLB-ready (maybe)
for all the money Cohen may spend, it may be just as important whether more than one of these six guys blossoms into really good, cheap talent in 2023-24.
I'd argue the Jeter Yankees were pretty damn close to a great team built substantively with FA money but also with the farm making core pieces too.
The key for the Mets will be how things play in 2025-20230 when this spending is either "half dead money" or retired/traded as bad contract and they have to fill in pieces from the farm because there is a hard cap/hard floor in the next CBA.
For about one percent of the money!
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