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Friday, December 23, 2022

Steve Cohen’s Mets spending spree and the ramifications for the rest of the league - The Athletic $

As baseball’s wealthiest owner, Cohen is better positioned to assemble a super-team than any other. But the fraternity of owners does not usually look kindly to those who break from the pack, particularly when it raises costs for them.

“I think it’s going to have consequences for him down the road,” said an official with another major league team who was not authorized to speak publicly. “There’s no collusion. But … there was a reason nobody for years ever went past $300 million. You still have partners, and there’s a system.”

Cohen’s choice to hike his payroll to upward of $380 million before luxury-tax penalties — with a 12-year, $315 million agreement with Carlos Correa his latest prize — has already polarized the industry. He’s not just blowing past $293 million, which is the fourth and highest tier of the competitive balance tax — the penalty level introduced to the sport in March, which was immediately dubbed the “Steve Cohen tax.” He’s taken his payroll to a total level the sport hasn’t seen ever. And relative to his peers’ spending, Cohen is an outlier the game hasn’t seen since George Steinbrenner.

For at least two other groups, Cohen is a blessing: Mets fans, for one. And players. Cohen wants to win, which players love. But his spending also grows their overall markets and their haul.

...

“If an owner is willing to spend 90 percent tax over $300 million, no CBA would solve for that absent an actual cap,” a person on the league’s side said Wednesday.

Nonetheless, as the players’ side has reckoned with in the last five years after the 2016 CBA, the result is the result, no matter the intent. The “Cohen tax” isn’t doing much of anything to deter its namesake, and Manfred might have some increasingly unhappy owners to calm down because of that.

And this is where Cohen’s spending could have a deeper effect. It’d be a little hyperbolic, a little cheeky to already be asking: Where were you when Steve Cohen started the 2026 lockout? But Cohen may have lit the fuse on perhaps the most quintessential behind-the-scenes fight in baseball: the big market versus the smaller market.

jimfurtado Posted: December 23, 2022 at 10:08 AM | 16 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: economics, mets

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   1. JimMusComp misses old primer... Posted: December 23, 2022 at 10:39 AM (#6110679)
There’s no collusion…But, there’s collusion?

Eff these owners. Good for Cohen. Get these other owners to start to spend like they are billionaires.
   2. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 23, 2022 at 10:54 AM (#6110686)
As baseball’s wealthiest owner, Cohen is better positioned to assemble a super-team than any other.

Of course, the issue is that for all the $450M payroll, the Mets aren't really a "super-team". As of right now Fangraphs projects them at 54 WAR, vs. 53.2 for the Yankees, 52.5 for the Padres, 50.6 for the Rays, and 50.1 for the Braves. So, they're really good, but not much better than the other top teams.
   3. Walt Davis Posted: December 23, 2022 at 01:40 PM (#6110701)
Where does fangraphs set replacement-level these days? Because that looks like 6 teams projected to 96+ wins to me ... and 96+ win projections are supposed to be a rarity. In any given season there might be 6 teams playing 600 ball but usually 3-4 of them got a bit "lucky" to do it.

But I agree while possibly a "super-team" they are a risky one with their two very expensive pitchers being 38 and 40, still no C and I don't think the Canha/Nimmo/Marte OF is going to be remembered in awe by future generations (they are all very good though and at solid prices).
   4. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 23, 2022 at 02:10 PM (#6110712)
Where does fangraphs set replacement-level these days?

Well, they're reporting 1215 total WAR for MLB. To make the math work so that the league averages 81 wins, replacement has to be at about 40.5 wins per team.
   5. KronicFatigue Posted: December 23, 2022 at 02:24 PM (#6110716)
Of course, the issue is that for all the $450M payroll, the Mets aren't really a "super-team". As of right now Fangraphs projects them at 54 WAR, vs. 53.2 for the Yankees, 52.5 for the Padres, 50.6 for the Rays, and 50.1 for the Braves. So, they're really good, but not much better than the other top teams.


Sure, the Mets aren't a super team yet, but it certainly seems like that's the inevitable future. The Yankees have been "the Yankees" for most of their history, and the other teams you listed are in a strong phase of their cycle. But we're still in the early stages of Cohen's Mets. The minor league system had to be rebuilt, and organization had lots of issues that took time to fix. The non-fluid nature of elite talent means it takes time to really build a super team.

MLB is concerned in the same way EPL is worried about New Castle. Just last year they were in a relegation battle until they were sold to Saudi Arabia. They were able to just throw money at the problem, getting enough "good enough" players at over inflated prices to stay in the EPL comfortably. And since then they've continued to overhaul their roster. They are not an elite team YET, but it's inevitable that they will be continuously good for a long time.
   6. The Duke Posted: December 23, 2022 at 05:25 PM (#6110735)
I admire Cohens desire to spend. I just question the people he's spending it on. Scherzer - idk, I think we've seen his best days. Lindor isnok but he strikes me as a guy who will get average quickly. Correa - they kind of stumbled into that one but I really like it. That's a good call. Diaz? That's crazy. Verlander. I liked that. Nimmo? Again, I can see him as a short term solution but that's a lot of years for him.

These were the only guys available which explains the results but I think the other top tier teams are constructed better. LA - if and when they get Ohtani will also be formidable.
   7. sunday silence (again) Posted: December 23, 2022 at 05:40 PM (#6110738)


Well, they're reporting 1215 total WAR for MLB. To make the math work so that the league averages 81 wins, replacement has to be at about 40.5 wins per


I dont question your math but that doesnt sound right Snapper. For quite a few years now its been set at 48 wins. I cant imagine they suddenly just made a major overhaul of WAR without telling us. There's no way they changed it that radically.

is it a question of overinflating Runs/win? For instance if we assume 10 runs for a win but its really 9, then it would get us closer to 48 wins.

Fangraphs replacement level is said to be 52 wins per wikipedia. Something seems off.
   8. Tony S Posted: December 23, 2022 at 06:21 PM (#6110746)
"There's no collusion". Funny he'd use that word before anybody else did.

"Hi, glad you could come to my cocktail party. I didn't lace any mimosas with strychnine."

   9. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 23, 2022 at 06:35 PM (#6110748)
I dont question your math but that doesnt sound right Snapper. For quite a few years now its been set at 48 wins. I cant imagine they suddenly just made a major overhaul of WAR without telling us. There's no way they changed it that radically.

is it a question of overinflating Runs/win? For instance if we assume 10 runs for a win but its really 9, then it would get us closer to 48 wins.

Fangraphs replacement level is said to be 52 wins per wikipedia. Something seems off.


I don't know what to tell you. If you look at their projected WAR on their depth charts, the total is 1,215. The league has to win 2,430 game. That leaves 1,215 wins to the replacement level, which is 40.5 per team.

There can't be any other replacement level if they say there's 1215 WAR in the league. If it's set at 48 the average team wins 88.5 games.
   10. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 23, 2022 at 06:41 PM (#6110750)
Sure, the Mets aren't a super team yet, but it certainly seems like that's the inevitable future.

I don't think so. FA spending is really inefficient, especially with a 90% tax on all additional payroll. Most of the best players are under control by other teams. Eventually, you run out of spots to spend money effectively.

The Yankees were never able to build a super team when they were spending three times as much as the average team. It's almost impossible.
   11. cookiedabookie Posted: December 23, 2022 at 06:44 PM (#6110751)
Snapper, projections include too many PA/IP. Yearly total fWAR is around 570 for hitting/fielding and 430 for pitching, so 1000 total fWAR
   12. Howie Menckel Posted: December 23, 2022 at 07:07 PM (#6110752)
mlb.com's top 100 has these Mets in top 100 (as of midseason 2022)

1. C Alvarez
18. 3B Baty
37. C Parada
85. OF Ramirez

SS Mauricio and 1B-OF Vientos are the next-best who are MLB-ready (maybe)

for all the money Cohen may spend, it may be just as important whether more than one of these six guys blossoms into really good, cheap talent in 2023-24.
   13. John Reynard Posted: December 23, 2022 at 10:26 PM (#6110776)
The way to efficiently spend FA money for championships requires the type off organizational patience that doesn't exist in any place that would have the money to spend "whatever" because the fanbase won't accept losing until you get a good deal or do like the Braves have with some young guys, but sign Ohtani, Correa, and Verlander to top it off.

I'd argue the Jeter Yankees were pretty damn close to a great team built substantively with FA money but also with the farm making core pieces too.

The key for the Mets will be how things play in 2025-20230 when this spending is either "half dead money" or retired/traded as bad contract and they have to fill in pieces from the farm because there is a hard cap/hard floor in the next CBA.
   14. JRVJ Posted: December 24, 2022 at 02:55 PM (#6110840)
12, the fact that Baty looks like such a solid prospect is what makes the Correa deal look so dumb (especially since a good part of Correa's value is a consequence of him playing SS).
   15. Adam Starblind Posted: December 24, 2022 at 11:37 PM (#6110861)
@13 The money on the books in 2025 goes to Lindor, Nimmo, Diaz and (probably?) Correa. And Bonilla. Unless the Mets’ payroll contracts dramatically, that should be somewhat less than half.
   16. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: December 28, 2022 at 07:10 PM (#6111099)
As of right now Fangraphs projects (the Mets) at 54 WAR, vs. (...) 50.6 for the Rays


For about one percent of the money!

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