Stroman has huge leverage with the Mets now. He seems like a NYM kinda guy. Pretty talented, big mouth, fans like him. The Mets should sign Stroman, take Bauer off the LAD hands and sign Ray and Iglesias.

I’m not happy this morning . I’ve never seen such unprofessional behavior exhibited by a player’s agent.I guess words and promises don’t matter

“I have not seen such unprofessional and unethical behavior since my own insider trading scandals!”.

Seriously considering following this Cohen character in twitter. It would be entertaining if nothing else….

Funny how the only thing keeping the Mets from signing the players they want is the misconduct of the players’ agents

Also funny how Steven Fing Cohen acts shocked that people mislead other people in negotiations

Forget about the Mets for the moment, this is a great signing by St. Louis. Matz is a good pitcher and 4/44 is very reasonable. Add in that he doens't require draft pick compensation and this is top notch.

That tweet is hilarious.

It’s a typical cardinal signing. They don’t pay up but add years to get their guys. Market was at 3 and the cards gave him 4. He’s got a long list of elbow and shoulder and lat injuries. If they can get three years of innings in a four year deal, this will be ok.

League-averagish walk and K rates, gives up a lot of homers, should be OK in front of the Cardinals' defense as long as he doesn't give up boatloads of long balls.

He slots in as the Cardinals' No. 3 starter right now, behind Wainwright and a (hopefully) healthy Flaherty, and it's nice to have a lefty in the rotation (I imagine they're not re-signing Lester or Happ).

I suspect the Cards will be OK if they get 2 solid years out of the 4. 2 that are like 2021 was, while the other 2 are 5-10 starts each. Should be about 6-8 WAR then over 4 years. With their defense he should do well. The Jays had a few nightmares out there and Matz survived. I suspect this will look really good on paper in 2022, but once the injuries happen it'll drop in fans eyes.

Matz is the most boring interview in MLB.

It’s a typical cardinal signing. They don’t pay up but add years to get their guys. Market was at 3 and the cards gave him 4. He’s got a long list of elbow and shoulder and lat injuries. If they can get three years of innings in a four year deal, this will be ok.

Yep... that long list of injuries which has allowed him to start 29, 32, 30 games in the last three full seasons... The issue with Matz is that he's an average starting pitcher... and considering he's being paid below average rate for that, and that he's going to a team which excels at making his type look good (ground ball, low walk, few homeruns) look good, he's a great match at relatively nothing money. There is almost no way to analyze this honestly and not think it's a solid deal by the Cardinals. It's not the guy I wanted as a Cardinal fan, but if a deal like this falls in your lap, you absolutely take it. He's being paid to be a 1.5 war pitcher over the next four seasons. He's signed with one of the few teams in existence that if he just maintains his performance, he's easily a 3 war pitcher by bwar going forward. The Cardinals are paying him for 6 war, and it's very likely he'll be an 9 or better over the life of the contract.

There is nobody with any analysis blood in their system that thinks this deal is a stretch. Yes things always can happen, but it's not really a big contract, and it's not cost prohibitive, and it adds depth to the rotation, and it adds a left handed pitcher to the rotation. Any negative comments by people are people who are going to negatively comment if we managed to get a time machine and transport Babe Ruth from 1920 to the team and signed him for league minimum for 10 seasons.

I am not a Matz fan, heck I barely know who he is, but there is literally no way I can find any issue with the signing based upon the data we have as observers. He's exactly what you expect from an 11 mil per year signing. This isn't a free agent splash, this is depth assurance.

The Cardinals are always thinking in multiple directions... let's get the guy we need, let's get the big guy or let's fill holes, here they looked at the fact that one of our issues was lack of innings from average starters, they fixed that, it's not such a big signing that it's going to stop anyone from taking a job. This is a guy who gives you 30 starts a year, doesn't pitch deep, but does pitch well enough to keep you in games, he's not a cy contender in any way.

Matz is easily a 3-WAR pitcher … who has never had a 3-WAR season through age 30 and was well below replacement level in 2020?

I’m with cfb here. He’s not a great but guys like him have value. Life as a manager gets a lot simpler when you have guys who can take the ball every fifth day somewhat reliably.

The issue with Matz is that he's an average starting pitcher... and considering he's being paid below average rate for that, and that he's going to a team which excels at making his type look good (ground ball, low walk, few homeruns) look good, he's a great match at relatively nothing money.

Matz allowed relatively few home runs in 2021. He allowed 14 HR in 30 IP in 2020, and was worse than the league average in 2017-2019. Career HR% of 3.6% vs a league avg of 3.2%.

It’s an okay deal for the Cards, but not a steal IMO.

Matz is easily a 3-WAR pitcher … who has never had a 3-WAR season through age 30 and was well below replacement level in 2020?

The reason I pointed out bwar is that with a good defense he's better than his actual performance so far as he is tailored made for that, but you are absolutely 100% right, he is not easily a 3 war pitcher, he's easily a 2 war pitcher, and more than likely a 2.5 better with the cardinals defense behind him. And with the Cardinals defense behind him, he's going to be pitching deeper into games.

I ignore 2020. I can find 30 hof pitchers who have had 30 innings pitched below replacement level. (and yes that is what you are talking about 30 innings pitched)

It’s an okay deal for the Cards, but not a steal IMO.

It's not a steal, it's a solid signing. That is all that the goal was. Add an arm that can slot into the third or fourth spot relatively confidently at a non-prohibitive cost. It's exactly the type of deal the Cardinals routinely make, that more often not end up working out better than the pundits expect.

This allows the team to pursue multiple options they are hoping for while knowing that if they fail a bigger name signing for the rotation, that the team still has a solid core. It adds flexibility to their trade partners as if they do sign a SS they can trade below probably real value someone like DeJong for bullpen fodder etc.

No battle plan survives meeting the enemy intact and the Cardinals have always liked flexibility, adding a bit of certainty somewhere, also adds flexibility in other places.

It’s definitely not a bad deal taken out of context. But the context is that the Cardinals don’t have a horse at the top of their rotation. Expecting wainwright to replicate 2021 is silly. Flaherty has had one great half-year, now he’s had an arm issue, Hudson and Mikolas are back end starters. The next 3-4 in line are not going to strike the fear of god into anyone: Oviedo, Liberatore, woodford and I guess Reyes.

The brewers have 3 legit cy young candidates and two other very good pitchers. Their pitching staff DOUBLED the cardinals’ staff WAR last year. Matz’ deal is fine but if it prevents a better pitcher signing/trade it won’t be enough

On the positive side - check out this from Matz wiki page. Maybe Stroman is the second target in which case it’s a great signing.

Matz enjoyed a high school rivalry with Marcus Stroman, a friend and future New York Mets teammate, who was pitcher for the nearby Patchogue-Medford High School. Matz and Stroman were teammates on the same elite travel team, the Paveco Storm, for several years in junior high and high school. The two were roommates during the Area Code Games and pitched against each other several times in high school, including a notable game on April 16, 2009,which was attended by more than 50 scouts from every MLB team,and is considered one of the best games in the history of Long Island high school baseball.Matz struck out 12 and allowed one hit,leading his team to a 1–0 victory,while Stroman struck out 14 and allowed three hits, and both pitchers threw complete games. Mets scout Larry Izzo later called it "one of the best duels I've ever seen".

One last comment on Matz. Even on an AL team last year he does not go deep into games. He’s getting those WAR totals pitching only 5 innings a start on average. He either can’t go three times through the order or is having his arm babied or both. If they can get him up to 6.5 or 7 at the same quality level, his value could really increase.

He looks like a good candidate to pair up with an opener to allow him to go deeper into games.

.
I ignore 2020. I can find 30 hof pitchers who have had 30 innings pitched below replacement level. (and yes that is what you are talking about 30 innings pitched)

I’m interested in this challenge. Find me the 30 HOF pitchers who were negative 0.9 WAR over 30 innings mid-career. He only pitched 30 innings because he gave up 14 home runs. That’s a point in his favor?

It’s definitely not a bad deal taken out of context. But the context is that the Cardinals don’t have a horse at the top of their rotation.

I don’t think that’s a necessary bit of context. The Cardinals may need the horse but Matz makes them better. They need 25 guys and he’s a good one of 25 to have. Assuming his signing doesn’t preclude another move (and I doubt it will)

What’s up with Flaherty? Is he not a top of the rotation guy? I didn’t follow the Cards at all so all I know is his BBRef line. It seems clear he had some injury issues this year but he’s a good pitcher.

#18 I know you can start with Lefty Grove in 1934. It's a terrible year for him but in June he pitched 29 innings of 8.69 ERA. Rather remarkably he allowed no home runs but he did allow 56 hits.

Then he missed most of July.

I'm sure an awful lot of people thought he was done. Turns out he had a little (4 ERA titles in 5 years) left.

EDIT: Randy Johnson March/April 1998? Probably not, but 32.1 IP of 6.12 ERA

EDIT2: Steve Carlton June 1973? Possibly given the league offensive context. 39.1 IP of 6.18 ERA. And this follows a 5.33 ERA in May.

EDIT3; Nolan Ryan June/early July has a 29 IP/ 8.69 ERA stretch. With a trip to the DL in the middle so maybe it's not on point. "Only" 22 BB and 1 HR. The outlier is the 41 hits allowed.

Hmm.... HOF'ers with 30 bad innings in a row mid-career? Roger Clemens was the first I checked - 1995 (pre Jays time when he won 2 pitcher triple crowns) first 11 starts of the season (62 IP) 5.81 ERA, mid 80's ERA+, that would roughly be -1 WAR I'm guessing. Randy Johnson in 1998 (post first Cy Young, before 2nd) 7.07 ERA over 35 2/3 IP (7 starts April 15 to May 19) around a 66 ERA+ or about -0.5 WAR, so not quite as bad but pretty bad. Tom Glavine 1999 (between a Cy and a 2nd place finish) he started his first 10 games with a 5.54 ERA, 63 1/3 IP, roughly an 82 ERA+, about the same as Clemens bad stretch, so I'd guess a -1 WAR as well.

Those were the first 3 I checked. And I didn't check much, just 1 season each for Johnson & Clemens, 2 for Glavine. A 30 inning stretch of horrid pitching can happen to anyone. Even the best of the best.

Now, with Matz as a Jays fan I watched him all year and losing him doesn't seem a big deal to me. He should do well as a Cardinal (their defense is miles ahead of the Jays) but he isn't a key piece. Just one that matches well with St Louis.

I’m interested in this challenge. Find me the 30 HOF pitchers who were negative 0.9 WAR over 30 innings mid-career. He only pitched 30 innings because he gave up 14 home runs. That’s a point in his favor?

I honestly didn't think my comment was really a debate, heck I'm fairly certain that you can find several hof pitchers using only their best ten seasons who have had below level replacement stretches for 30 innings pitched, it's really not a stretch of the imagination. Mind you the best of the best didn't, but this is not what we are talking about, the point is that a small sample size doesn't tell you ####, and nobody should use 2020 as evidence of anything.



the ultimate point is that I don't really see any reason to give 2020 more mileage than it deserves. And again, we aren't talking about a stud pitcher, we are talking about a gap pitcher being paid as if he's a 1.5 war player.

Oh, I don’t want to give 2020 more mileage than it deserves. I do think there is zero evidence to support an expectation that he puts up 3 WAR in any season of this contract.

HOF pitchers who, in a 6 start span (which is what Matz had in 2020, plus 5 innings in relief) had an ERA over 10 (which is what Matz had in his starts):

                                                    
Name             Span Start   Span End   IP   ERA GS
Roy Halladay*    2000-04-04 2000-04-30 30.2 10.57  6
Jack Morris*     1993-04-06 1993-05-01 27.2 11.06  6
Gaylord Perry*   1982-06-20 1982-07-17 24.2 10.22  6
Bert Blyleven*   1992-06-23 1992-07-24 24.0 10.13  6
Steve Carlton*   1986-06-01 1986-07-06 23.2 10.65  6
Jack Morris*     1982-06-14 1982-07-06 22.0 13.09  6
Tom Glavine*     1988-04-26 1988-05-20 21.2 11.63  6
Robin Roberts*   1966-07-27 1966-08-21 17.1 11.42  6
Hal Newhouser*   1941-08-23 1941-09-15 17.1 10.90  6

Halladay and Carlton each had two overlapping stretches, so I only kept one each.

That’s a telling list. Number who were in mid-career: 1, Jack Morris. The rest were either washed up (most of them) or still green.

What’s up with Flaherty? Is he not a top of the rotation guy? I didn’t follow the Cards at all so all I know is his BBRef line. It seems clear he had some injury issues this year but he’s a good pitcher.

He's a top of the rotation pitcher if he's healthy, there is still a lingering concern on that front. Mikolas is a legit number two, if he's healthy, and again there is concern on that front. Waino is a solid number 3 who had a end of the career renaissance that it would be foolish to think he repeats, the real hope is he works through any injuries and minor issues to produce 180 innings of 100 era+.

That’s a telling list. Number who were in mid-career: 1, Jack Morris. The rest were either washed up (most of them) or still green.

I will concede that all of those pitchers were better than Matz. Matz was very bad in 2020. I think I would be quite worried signing him for 2021, although the unique circumstances of 2020 would lead me to discount any out-of-the-ordinary performance more than usual.

But after 2021, in which he delivered a pretty good 150 innings, right in line with his performance in 314 innings in 2018-19? No, not particularly worried about 2020 except as it impacts his total body of work (career ERA of 4.24, it would be 4.00 excluding 2020).

#26 -

I'd be comfortable with Flaherty #1 and Wainwright-Mikolas-Matz #3-5. Hudson is probably the #2 guy long-term. Is he going to be held back early in 2022? Any possibility of a front-of-the-rotation signing? What about Kim?

I'd be comfortable with Flaherty #1 and Wainwright-Mikolas-Matz #3-5. Hudson is probably the #2 guy long-term. Is he going to be held back early in 2022? Any possibility of a front-of-the-rotation signing? What about Kim?

Cardinals front office is always a bit difficult to predict, they leave room in the budget for contingency, and sometimes that might mean a big signing/trade that they didn't originally plan as a real possibility. They will continue talks with Scherzer and Stroman I imagine, they have room for Scherzer even at 40 mil per, but I don't think they will spend that much for him. Hudson just needs a healthy spring training to take the number two role, but there is always a concern with any pitcher coming back until they hit about 60+ innings without missing a beat.

Cardinal fans are blowing up the forums for a shortstop, and I just don't see any reason to get one. If one falls in the lap, sure, but as it stands you have Sosa who had a strong rookie half season and still have DeJong who had a crappy season, both are under team control and both bring a great glove to the position that even without a bat, and with the rest of the roster they won't hurt you if you play them regularly. I have to assume that Dejong is the default shortstop as of right now with Sosa as the super sub type of player, and that if both have good springs, first month of the season, that DeJong gets traded for some relief help (if it doesn't happen in the off season) I know that the Cardinals are leaving options open there and are flexible in lineup construction that if DeJong looks like he'll repeat 2020/2021 that they'll just let him go, his power and defense is tantalizing, but when that is all you have to offer, you don't have long term security. The Cardinals hope is that both DeJong and Sosa perform to expectations (100 ops+ with gold glove defense effectively) so that they can trade DeJong mid season to replace whichever reliever they end up having go down.

Signing a SS makes no sense. We have two good defensive SS and as soon as Gorman comes and wins the 2B job, Edman can finally move to his natural position at SS. Pitching, pitching, pitching.

Sign scherzer and Garcia and we will win the division. Trade Mikolas to save some money. The angels would love 2/34 contract like that

On MLB network they were very hot on the fact that Matz had 9 good starts to close out 2021.

Mets fans are probably more skeptical of Matz than those who didn't watch him pitch for a number of seasons. I was surprised to see he pitched complete seasons in 2018-2019, because he was a few years ahead of his time -- even when healthy he couldn't give you more than 160 IP. His peripherals were also worse than his ERA would lead you to believe in both seasons. He seemed like he was alternately on the verge of putting it all together and completely falling apart multiple times during his Mets tenure. He's coming off a decent season and 3 out of 4 seasons as a modern-day innings eater. Either way he seemed like a good kid, and I'll root for him to succeed when he's not facing the Mets.

He's being paid to be a 1.5 war pitcher over the next four seasons.

Useful to bear in mind that an average pitcher will reach 2.2 WAR at around 220 IP. With today's starter usage, indeed an average pitcher then will hit 1.5 WAR at around 150 IP. For his career, Matz has produced at about 1 WAR per 84 IP and over the last 4 years, even including the horrific 2020, still slightly better than 1 per 100. So he has been about as average as average gets and he is pretty reliable for his 150 IP. He's being paid to be the guy he has been but also at a rate that assumes 600 IP which the Cards only get if he's healthy all 4 years.

But agreed -- there are no concerning negatives about this deal. I'm not sure this sort of pitcher really quite gets 4/$44 in the market of the last few years -- 1-2 WAR players do not seem to be priced at $8/WAR and do not generally get 4 years. But even if he is "overpriced relative to market", it's a trivial amount, move on. If I wanted to play devil's advocate, it is the years ... he's a 1.5 WAR pitcher now who is likely to get at least a bit worse as he ages ... 1.5/1.25/1.0/0.75 would be just 4.5 WAR for $44 ... hardly a disaster but definitely not good.

If they can get him up to 6.5 or 7 at the same quality level, his value could really increase.

Do you even watch baseball anymore? Number of pitchers who averaged 6.5 IP/start over 2018-21 ... zero. Guys like Verlander, Scherzer, Cole come close. For 2018-21, at least 60 starts, ERA+ of 110 or less (i.e. Matz-type pithcers), the most IP (and most starts) was by Corbin at 639 (he's just under 6). Only guy who might be over 6/GS is Jordan Lyles but I think even he gets over the line only because of relief IP.

Even on an AL team last year he does not go deep into games.

Have you even watched baseball since 1973? NL then AL IP/starts, selected years

1973 6.6 6.6
1974 6.5 6.6
1975 6.5 6.6
1980 6.3 6.4
1985 6.3 6.2
1990 6.1 6.1
1995 6.0 5.9
2000 6.0 5.8
2005 6.0 6.0
2010 5.9 6.1
2015 5.8 5.8
2021 5.0 5.0

There's never been any usage differences between the two leagues. And can we please get rid of the myth that a starter is "supposed" to go 7 innings because typical starters haven't been doing that in over 50 years. It was never true except for top starters. The notion that a modern #3 (much less #4-#5) is gonna go even 6 IP/start is silly.

In that sequence, IP/start dropped about half an inning between ca 1973 and ca 1990. Things held pretty steady until at least ca 2010 maybe ca 2015. IP/start has "plummeted" since then. It's certainly correct to say that we've seen a radical change in starter usage over the last 5 years or so, I understand where the collective angst is coming from. But the collective angst doesn't allow us to pretend the good ol' days were better than they were.

I think it is fair to say that a SP of yore was expected to be ABLE to go 7+ innings when needed or when pitching well (i.e. there were heaps more CGs in those days) ... and they got yanked earlier when they weren't pitching well. From about 2005 to whenever between 2015 and 2021 things changed again, they were roughly REQUIRED to go 5 or at least 100ish pitches. These days about all they're required to do is twice through the order although they usually go a few batters more than that.

A comp from the news the other day:

DeSclafini, 2 WAR/150 2018-21, also had a horrible 2020, 12 fewer IP than Matz ... reportedly 3/$36
Heany, 1.3 WAR/150 2018-21, 24 fewer IP than Matz but fewer in both 2019 and 2021 ... 1/$8.5

If 4/$44 for Matz is "right" then DeSclafini is underpaid and Heaney probably should have gotten at least a 2nd year (although maybe he's hoping for a reset year and wanted only one year). All pretty trivial either way.

But it's the Cardinals. They could sign CFB for 1/$3 and he'd give them 1.5 WAR off the bench.

Matz contract is right for the Cardinals.. this is the thing, when people look at value for a player, they ignore what the team is willing to spend. It's not a straight system, it's based upon what the franchise is willing to spend. Someone like Matz at 11mil per year is 1. on league average rating worth it. 2. on a team fill basis worth it. 3. on a cheap ass ####### franchise trying to drip every penny out of the player and exploit them, not worth it.

The Cardinals are going into the season trying to be a championship caliber team, and trying to shore up any holes they had, one of which wasn't actually pitching quality, but was pitching depth. Signing a guy to fill a hole, while still maintaining payroll flexibilty is the hallmark of a good franchise, this is why the Cardinals constantly win. In businesss terms, it's called six sigma, you identify your biggest weakness's and fix that instead of focusing on small weakness's.

To be clear, we’re off of saying he’ll “very likely” give the Cards 9 WAR over the next four years?

I'd say so. I'm putting him down for 600 league average IP over the next four seasons, which is about 6 WAR. But $44M for 6 WAR is close to market rate.