BBTF's Newsblog Discussion :: Storied careers of Pujols, Molina come to a close: ‘We left a mark’

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Sunday, October 09, 2022

Storied careers of Pujols, Molina come to a close: ‘We left a mark’

Smiles were in short supply on a cold Saturday at Busch Stadium when the end of two historic careers came much sooner than expected. However, Albert Pujols chuckled—even if it was just for a second—when close friend and teammate Yadier Molina refused to go down easily near the end.

With two outs in the ninth inning and the careers of Molina and Pujols hanging in the balance, the veteran catcher showed off his trademark grit and refusal to roll over by singling to extend the baseball lives of the Cardinals legends just a little bit longer.

“I was really happy for [Molina] there because he’s like my little brother,” Pujols said. “Then, I started pulling for Tommy [Edman] to hit a three-run homer so we could have a Game 3. I’m just happy for Yadi that his last at-bat was a base hit. For him, just like me, it’s going to take a while for this to soak in. More for him, actually, because he’s been with this organization for 19 years.

“At the end of the day, we’ve both been so blessed because we’ve had unbelievable careers,” added Pujols, who had two singles in his final game. “But I feel like we left a mark—him here [in St. Louis] and myself in every place I played.”

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: October 09, 2022 at 12:16 PM | 73 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: albert pujols, cardinals, yadier molina

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1. The Duke Posted: October 09, 2022 at 12:57 PM (#6100131)

As much as I'd like to see Waino come back, I think he's done too. It would be exciting to see all three on the HOF ballot together

2. Walt Davis Posted: October 09, 2022 at 01:58 PM (#6100143)

I was happy to see Molina get that hit. I didn't want the Cards to tie it up but I didn't want to see Molina's career end feebly either. A single to keep it alive was perfect.

3. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: October 09, 2022 at 02:05 PM (#6100145)

Pujols too.

4. Dr Pol is what America needs Posted: October 09, 2022 at 02:46 PM (#6100155)

Didn't realize Molina had such a rough season at the plate as I was always watching him behind the plate because I was fascinated by a guy his age catching. What I don't understand is his defensive assessment being positive. He wasn't Johnny Estrada, but I saw multiple games where Pujols legit didn't try and get balls I figure because he's 40 years old and catching is ####### hard so his body wouldn't respond. Not claiming he wasn't trying. Just that the spirit willing but body saying #### this.

5. Captain Joe Bivens, Pointless and Wonderful Posted: October 09, 2022 at 03:36 PM (#6100160)

Crow's flip side of "Evil Woman Don't Play Your Games With Me" is "Gonna Leave a Mark".

6. John Northey Posted: October 09, 2022 at 06:07 PM (#6100170)

I know I loved seeing both Molina and Pujols get hits their final PA's - nice way to end their careers. Odd that Goldschmidt was 0-7 after a 180 OPS+ season. But crap happens (as a Jays fan I really really know that)

7. John Reynard Posted: October 09, 2022 at 10:26 PM (#6100214)

As much as I'd like to see Waino come back, I think he's done too. It would be exciting to see all three on the HOF ballot together

I think Wainwright will ask for $12-15M or so on another 1-year deal. If the Cardinals say yes, he comes back. If they say no, he might hang them up. Or, he might see who else would offer him that.

8. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: October 10, 2022 at 01:43 AM (#6100226)

What is it about Wainwright that makes people think he’s a better hall of fame candidate than guys like Roy Oswalt, Chuck Finley or David Cone?

9. SoSH U at work Posted: October 10, 2022 at 08:19 AM (#6100237)

What is it about Wainwright that makes people think he’s a better hall of fame candidate than guys like Roy Oswalt, Chuck Finley or David Cone?

Has anyone said he is?* Even The Duke just said he'd like to see them on a ballot together, not that they'd go in then, and I don't recall anyone suggesting it on other threads.

* Other than the fact those three guys have already been considered and thoroughly rejected, while Wainwright hasn't had that privilege yet.

10. sanny manguillen Posted: October 10, 2022 at 08:41 AM (#6100238)

"Steroid careers? The big cheaters should be ashamed of themselves!...What?...Storied?... Nevermind."

11. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: October 10, 2022 at 09:57 AM (#6100244)

What is it about Molina that makes people think he's a better hall of fame candidate than guys like Jason Kendall, Bob Boone, or Jim Sundberg?

12. SoSH U at work Posted: October 10, 2022 at 10:08 AM (#6100245)

What is it about Molina that makes people think he's a better hall of fame candidate than guys like Jason Kendall, Bob Boone, or Jim Sundberg?

They spend time at Fangraphs?

I think he's a better candidate than them (and I'm not sure why Boone is even included in that group). He's in the conversation for greatest defensive catcher of all time and he's actually got a higher career OPS+ than all of them (Kendall really cratered).

I have no problem with him making the Hall (though if Cooperstown enacted a No Neck Tats policy on inductees, I wouldn't object to that either).

13. The Duke Posted: October 10, 2022 at 10:21 AM (#6100248)

As the standard for career wins continues to plummet more pitchers in the 200 range will get consideration - there's just tons of older pitchers in that range but 200-220 is now a really high number. Ultimately, some of these guys will get in because someone from these generations will need to be elected.

Wainwright's only hope is to come back and get 200 and then have a second career in broadcasting. The Jim Kaat path. And that won't happen until he gets to vets committee.

He has about a 1% chance

14. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: October 10, 2022 at 11:38 AM (#6100254)

I think [Molina]'s a better candidate than them (and I'm not sure why Boone is even included in that group). He's in the conversation for greatest defensive catcher of all time

If Molina is, then so is Boone. They're both guys with good defensive reps who played forever and were below-average hitters. By bbref dWAR, Molina holds a 28.0 to 25.8 lead on Boone and that seems like an awfully narrow margin to turn a guy from "Why is he in this group?" to "Hall of Famer!"

A lot of folks swear by Molina's pitch framing, but -- while I've always thought FG's framing numbers were nonsense -- Molina's not even the career leader in it. Russell Martin is. Then Brian McCann. Then Molina. And we'll never know what Bob Boone's is.

15. SoSH U at work Posted: October 10, 2022 at 11:55 AM (#6100255)

If Molina is, then so is Boone. They're both guys with good defensive reps who played forever and were below-average hitters.

But there's a pretty significant difference between Molina's below average 96 and Boone's 80.

A lot of folks swear by Molina's pitch framing, but -- while I've always thought FG's framing numbers were nonsense -- Molina's not even the career leader in it. Russell Martin is. Then Brian McCann. Then Molina.

Yup. And if someone subscribes entirely to Fangraphs, than Martin and McCann and Molina are all easy Hall of Famers. I would never go all-in like that, but I don't dismiss them entirely either. Martin and McCann come up short in BBRef WAR while Molina is a borderliner there. So toss in his strong framing numbers and his role as the only fixture on the Cards' 13 playoff appearances (four pennants) the last two decades and he seems like a reasonable choice to me.

And we'll never know what Bob Boone's is.

Yes, he might look worse.

16. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick

Posted: October 10, 2022 at 12:24 PM (#6100261)

What is it about Wainwright that makes people think he’s a better hall of fame candidate than guys like Roy Oswalt, Chuck Finley or David Cone?

It's not much of an argument, but one-team careers make it easier for a player to stick in a writer's memory. I'd like to see how one-team players do in HoF voting compared to multi-team players with equivalent WAR.

Oswalt pitched for 4 teams, Finley 3, and Cone 5. But their WAR are all well above Wainwright's.

17. Dr Pol is what America needs Posted: October 10, 2022 at 01:01 PM (#6100267)

Made the what about Sundberg pitch a while back so won't go thru the whole comparison. Never saw the dude play but sure seems like it's a legit comp. Molina turned into a legit hitter later in his career while Sundberg had more typical aging curve with bat. His defense was good to great for like 15 years. 8 seasons BBREF of 3 war or better. Molina had that two year peak which was better but Sundberg bit more consistent. Counting stats look kind of shitty because bulk of career in 70's. Molina caught more games but not like Sundberg was nothing with almost 2000 games caught and almost 1800 games started. ST Louis weather not great but Texas heat a killer and what I understand this is when baseball was kind of dumb so Texas was still playing its share of day games which is insane.

No real issue if Molina gets to hof. But I stumbled into Sundberg and just wondering what others think.

18. reech Posted: October 10, 2022 at 01:09 PM (#6100270)

Molina's real competition is Posey and Mauer.
I think Posey goes in fairly quickly.
Mauer (most likely gets elected )goes in before Molina.
If Mauer doesn't get in, neither will Yadi.

19. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 10, 2022 at 01:13 PM (#6100272)

"Steroid careers? The big cheaters should be ashamed of themselves!...What?

Read it the same way.

20. SoSH U at work Posted: October 10, 2022 at 01:42 PM (#6100278)

Molina's real competition is Posey and Mauer.

I don't think either guy will have to wait much more than three years.

I think Molina goes in, but I find cases like his tough to predict.

No real issue if Molina gets to hof. But I stumbled into Sundberg and just wondering what others think.

A pretty good comp to Molina as a player, just loses on the narrative stuff. Won a WS with KC in his only appearance in the playoffs (and on the downside of his career), only 3 AS appearances (vs. 10).

21. Dr Pol is what America needs Posted: October 10, 2022 at 01:54 PM (#6100281)

20--yeah the postseason really helps Molina big time

22. Booey Posted: October 10, 2022 at 04:28 PM (#6100306)

Boone isn't a good comp for Molina. I could go either way on Yadi's Cooperstown worthiness, but he beats Boone easily across the board. 42.2 WAR vs 27.4, 22nd best catcher in JAWS vs 56th, OPS+ of 96 vs 82, 10 AS selections and 9 gold gloves vs 4 and 7.

Molina is mostly a compiler, but he at least had a couple of great seasons where he was a legitimate star; 7.2 and 6.2 WAR in 2012-2013 earned him 3rd and 4th place MVP finishes. Boone's single season highs were 3.6 WAR and a 16th place MVP finish.

I think Yadi gets in fairly easily (and I suspect Mauer and Posey do too). Being a one team starting catcher for a perennial contender that made 13 postseason appearances, 4 World Series (where Molina hit .328), and won 2 championships has to count for something. Throw in the all star appearances, gold gloves, and the 4th place finish all time in games caught, and I think they'll have plenty to fill his HOF plaque with. And his WAR and JAWS show that he's at least statistically borderline for a catcher, so the SABR crowd shouldn't put up too much of a fight against his candidacy.

23. Booey Posted: October 10, 2022 at 04:45 PM (#6100310)

One more thing regarding Yadi (and others); if you don't think he's a Hall of Famer - or Mauer, or Posey, or even Votto (since there was a thread earlier this season where some questioned his worthiness) - who from their era IS a HOFer? How many no doubt HOF position players debuted in the decade between 2001 (Pujols/Ichiro) and 2011 (Trout)? With Cano thoroughly removing his name from consideration, I count exactly one from those 9 seasons (2002-2010): Cabrera in 2003. All the best players from this time frame are pitchers (Greinke in 2004, Verlander in 2005, Kershaw and Scherzer in 2008). No other position players even hit 65 WAR. The best are all borderliners (Utley, Votto, Mauer, Posey, Molina, Longoria). Freeman and Stanton debuted in 2010; I suppose Freddie (49 WAR, age 33) could pass 65 WAR if he ages well. Stanton (45 WAR, age 32) will be lucky to get 60 with his downward trajectory.

24. cardsfanboy

Posted: October 10, 2022 at 05:03 PM (#6100320)

Boone and Molina might be similar styles, but as pointed they aren't equivalent. (That is like the Ozzie vs Vizquel/Belanger comparison--except Molina is much closer to the border than Ozzie)

I will join the list of people asking "Who said Wainwright is even going to get real consideration for the hof?" But he's going to stick around for one more year, you can never have too much veteran pitcher that you can abuse without worrying about tainting the future of the organization. I can see him sticking around getting another 8 or so wins, another 160 or so innings (his fip this year, was exactly the same as it was last year) 105 era+ pitcher giving you 160 innings that you can leave in if need be has real value. Especially for any team that is bringing up multiple young arms. Nearly every year the Cardinals go into the regular season with what appears to be a surplus of starting pitching and nearly every year(recently) they seemed to struggle to find a fourth and fifth starter in July.

Molina's real competition is Posey and Mauer.

Mauer just spent way too much time away from catcher to really be compared(pretty much exactly half of his career is first/DH). Mauer has his own issues, not enough numbers to be a first baseman but way more numbers than to be a catcher. I'm assuming he's getting graded on a curve, and since his best years were as a catcher (3 Catcher gold gloves/5 silver sluggers) (The argument is pretty easy to make, he had 44 war as a catcher 27 waa, by age 30 before he started playing other positions...it's whether the voters remember that.That is what Posey also has roughly)

25. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: October 10, 2022 at 05:42 PM (#6100323)

Mauer just spent way too much time away from catcher to really be compared(

While that might be true in a discussion for Hall of Merit, people out in the real world are going to remember him as a catcher. It's just the way it is. It's like how Smoltz's stint as a closer was used as an argument in his favor to make him a slam-dunk first balloter, even though it meant he'd been less valuable than, say, Mussina, who had to wait around for a few years: if people want evidence to fit the narrative in their head, they will ignore or massage the facts to make them fit the story.

I'm more or less agnostic on Molina as a Hall of Famer. I realize that some of this is simply because I despise the Cardinals -- in all likelihood, if he were a lifelong Astro or something, I'd be in his favor -- not because of framing stats (a load of old tosh, in my estimation), but because of the standard catcher discount, which I'm a big believer in. Then again, I'm a big believe in the catcher discount because I'm a former catcher, so who knows how my biases come into play.

26. The Yankee Clapper Posted: October 10, 2022 at 05:49 PM (#6100324)

I think Yadi gets in fairly easily (and I suspect Mauer and Posey do too). Being a one team starting catcher for a perennial contender that made 13 postseason appearances, 4 World Series (where Molina hit .328), and won 2 championships has to count for something.

For the record, Jorge Posada, also a one-team catcher, appeared in the postseason for 15 years, with 6 World Series (4 Wins!) and had a higher postseason OPS than Molina (.745 to .682), as well as more Career WAR (42.7 to 42.3). Difficult to see why the one with the lower stats ‘gets in fairly easily’ when the other was one & done.

27. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: October 10, 2022 at 06:03 PM (#6100326)

Difficult to see why the one with the lower stats ‘gets in fairly easily’ when the other was one & done.

Because no one wanted to have to give Posada a congratulatory handshake.

28. Lars6788 Posted: October 10, 2022 at 06:37 PM (#6100332)

Maybe Posada was seen more as a hitting catcher who never had the reputation like Molina’s pitcher whisperer narrative.

29. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: October 10, 2022 at 06:47 PM (#6100335)

Difficult to see why the one with the lower stats ‘gets in fairly easily’ when the other was one & done.

Because Molina was seen as the leader of his team and Posada was overshadowed by Rivera, Jeter, Rodriguez, etc.

30. SoSH U at work Posted: October 10, 2022 at 07:18 PM (#6100339)

Maybe Posada was seen more as a hitting catcher who never had the reputation like Molina’s pitcher whisperer narrative.

Rightfully so. You don't find too many Hall of Fame catchers who pitchers preferred not to throw to.

31. Ron J Posted: October 10, 2022 at 09:39 PM (#6100350)

#30 Never heard that Yankee pitchers didn't like to throw to Posada. He wasn't a wonderful defensive player, but I think what hurts his HOF case is that he was late establishing himself (becoming the regular at 27 and having his first really big year at 29). His run from 2000 to 2007 stacks up with any offense first catcher not named Mike Piazza but there's nothing else. (I mean it speaks well of that part of his HOF case that he can be sensibly compared to Bill Dickey or Mickey Cochrane for prime offense)

To be clear, this isn't a Phelpser issue (the earliest he was major league ready was 1996 -- and he wouldn't have been that much better than Girardi. Keeping him down that extra year didn't cost the Yankees a game). He was a late bloomer.

32. Booey Posted: October 10, 2022 at 10:20 PM (#6100355)

Posada deserved more consideration than he got, but I can see why voters might treat them differently. Molina had twice as many All Star selections (10-5), and with the 9 gold gloves and 4th all time in games caught, he's being seen as one of the best defensive catchers ever, and the voters have always overrated specialists. Posada was a very good hitting catcher, but I don't think he's thought of as one of the best ever.

You also need to look at their contemporaries. Jorge played alongside 2 inner circle HOF catchers in Piazza and Pudge Rodriguez. Molina's competition for top catcher honors is a guy who played half his career as a league avg 1B (Mauer), and a guy with a really short career for a modern HOF candidate, even by catcher standards (Posey). Likewise, I think Salvador Perez is building a dark horse HOF case due (in part) to a similar lack of high caliber competition, and a whole bunch of narrative.

33. SoSH U at work Posted: October 10, 2022 at 10:35 PM (#6100357)

Never heard that Yankee pitchers didn't like to throw to Posada.

Neither Randy Johnson nor A.J. Burnett wanted to throw to him, for sure. He was not good defensively, and he looks worse via Fangraphs than he does bWAR (framing not being just a bonus, as Salvy Perez's lackluster fWAR shows).

He was easily my favorite Yankee (admittedly, a very low bar) during their '90s run. But it seems to me the closer you look, the worse his case appears.

34. baxter Posted: October 10, 2022 at 11:54 PM (#6100364)

12. Re the Molina neck tat, I would like to see him get a face tattoo of Aroldis Chapman's infected leg tattoo; isn't that what the youngsters call meta?

I think that would be better than Kilroy was Here, but not as retro.

Not a Tiger's fan, but would like to see Freehan go in.

97 OPS + isn't bad for a catcher; put together with the defensive reputation; ASG's; single team and leadership image, Molina will go in.

Agree w/29; different perspective on Posada, deserved or not.

Sundberg at one point thought he had reputation as best defensive catcher in AL; Boone certainly a fine player, good enough to play for a long time, agree w/points about them bouncing from team to team and playing fewer ASG's (Molina has more appearances than them put together).

Then again, the reasoning may be tautological, to support the idea that Molina should go in and the others shouldn't, especially Posada who appears closer in value.

But, if Molina gets an Aroldis Chapman infected leg tattoo on his face, I'd vote him in no questions asked. Of course, I'd probably also vote in any of you who bother to read this post, so it's good i don't have a vote.

35. Howie Menckel Posted: October 11, 2022 at 12:00 AM (#6100367)

Molina will sail in easily - that's not even interesting. and for those who oppose, maybe this is a good time to get a jump start on the five stages of grief there. it's over and it's always been over.

"should" is the far more challenging discussion.

36. cardsfanboy

Posted: October 11, 2022 at 01:32 AM (#6100370)

"should" is the far more challenging discussion.

It's an interesting discussion, except people often revert to "data only" type of answers. Completely ignoring whether or not there is value in the currently intangible, by more or less saying "it's not enough to make a difference." or something like that.

I'm a fan of Yadier, think he's borderline; think he will get in fairly easy; and think that stat guys will #### a cow over it well every other version of a baseball expert out there will say "well of course."

I've been a person who campaigns that catcher value is not captured by war. A position that is actively involved in more plays than any other position on the diamond by a significant amount over the course of the season. I'm also a person who campaigns that health has it's own value beyond the numbers produced, so a catcher who is 1 healthy most seasons and 2 has a deserved defensive reputation, is probably one of the guys that a war type stat is going to absolutely underrate the value to the team.

37. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: October 11, 2022 at 09:30 AM (#6100376)

38. Ithaca2323 Posted: October 11, 2022 at 09:37 AM (#6100379)

Molina will get in. Not even worth debating that side of the equation.

I do hope he doesn't pull Wainwright up with him, though I can't imagine 75% of writers going fully for that narrative.

39. Dolf Lucky Posted: October 11, 2022 at 10:59 AM (#6100387)

Anyone else having trouble getting data at baseball reference?

40. Lassus Posted: October 11, 2022 at 12:54 PM (#6100400)

Molina will get in.

I would agree with this.

41. Ron J Posted: October 11, 2022 at 01:43 PM (#6100408)

Didn't remember the Johnson thing.

It's an interesting case. Looks like father time finally caught up with him in 2005 and he grumped about Posada. They gave him Flaherty as a personal catcher in mid-June and he pitched back-to-back excellent games. Then got completely crushed in the third start and basically pitched the same the rest of the way in. On balance he did better with Flaherty.

Fair to say that nearly as good defensively as a 37-year-old John Flaherty is not the thing that advances your HOF case. It's not like Flaherty was a defensive wizard. The real difference isn't really as high as .28 RPG though.

Burnett got old Posada and a ton of passed balls. I'm sure that was frustrating.

42. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: October 11, 2022 at 04:15 PM (#6100452)

Molina will probably get in, but I don't know that it's going to be the slam-dunk that some people around here seem to think. His case is going to strongly represent that of Vizquel, who isn't in and isn't going to get in: best defensive player at his position in his generation, tons of gold gloves, a good enough hitter to make him a star in combo with his glove. There will be statheads who won't vote for him, probably, which is a much bigger part of the electorate than it used to be.

To be clear, I think Molina's a better candidate than Vizquel, and I do think that the narrative that attaches to a one team guy whose team was so successful over his career gets him in. But their similarities are instructive.

43. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: October 11, 2022 at 04:30 PM (#6100455)

I was surprised that Posada and Bernie Williams didn't get more HOF support. They were both borderline cases at best, but I expected them to last more than a season or two on the ballot.

If you're a poor defensive catcher who doesn't really start his career until age 26, you have to be a *really* good hitter. Posada was good but not good enough to get any momentum behind his case.

44. Booey Posted: October 11, 2022 at 06:24 PM (#6100474)

#42 - Are you forgetting the domestic violence allegations against Vizquel that torpedoed his support? He was at 52.6% after 3 ballots and looked likely to eventually work his way up to election. But then the DV bombshell dropped and his chances cratered. That's not a good comparison for what's likely to happen with Molina.

Also, as you said, Yadi is just a better candidate than Omar. They have similar career value (42.2 WAR for Molina, 45.6 for Vizquel), but 40-45 WAR for a catcher is borderline; it's well below the typical statistically acceptable threshold for any other position player. JAWS better captures their respective ranking at their positions (Molina is the 22nd best rated catcher, Vizquel is the 43rd best rated shortstop), and All Star selections better capture their reputations (Yadi made 10 All Star teams vs only 3 for Omar).

45. Howie Menckel Posted: October 11, 2022 at 07:39 PM (#6100490)

His case is going to strongly represent that of Vizquel, who isn't in and isn't going to get in: best defensive player at his position in his generation, tons of gold gloves, a good enough hitter to make him a star in combo with his glove.

it's the annual awards that don't include the postseason - HOF voters do, and the Molina narrative is way larger than Vizquel's - and THAT'S why he's getting in.

maybe sportswriters love narratives too much. that's fair. but man, do they love 'em.

46. cardsfanboy

Posted: October 11, 2022 at 08:04 PM (#6100498)

Molina will probably get in, but I don't know that it's going to be the slam-dunk that some people around here seem to think.

The real difference between Molina and Vizquel, is the sheer number of people with the right to vote who have stated they will vote for Molina. I used to think Molina would start in the 25% range, but I'm now fairly confident he's going to start at a Gary Carter level, if not locked in on the first year. I know some people like to argue that "not going in the first year means you weren't a lock." but we are talking about catchers, there is absolutely a different standard applied here.

At this point in time, even with the influx of new age voters, it seems that Molina's case is he's going in fairly easily. Even with the new age voters you have the people who look at fangraphs vs bb reference, and considering that fangraphs is including more data, (even if it's calculated incorrectly in my mind) the stat guys are still going to glom onto it. (to me Yadier is a combo candidate, career + story + value + intangibles)

47. cardsfanboy

Posted: October 11, 2022 at 08:09 PM (#6100499)

I was surprised that Posada and Bernie Williams didn't get more HOF support. They were both borderline cases at best, but I expected them to last more than a season or two on the ballot.

48. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: October 11, 2022 at 10:35 PM (#6100512)

#42 - Are you forgetting the domestic violence allegations against Vizquel that torpedoed his support? He was at 52.6% after 3 ballots and looked likely to eventually work his way up to election.

I did, but all the same that was very much the slow road to election rather than a first ballot no doubter. Look, I could be wrong. But I'm not sure that Molina is going to "sail in" the way other people seem to think.

49. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: October 11, 2022 at 10:37 PM (#6100513)

I used to think Molina would start in the 25% range, but I'm now fairly confident he's going to start at a Gary Carter level, if not locked in on the first year.

I guess the electorate may have changed a whole hell of a lot by then, but if Piazza had to wait, I suspect Molina will, too. He doesn't have the steroid whispers, but he's also not nearly as good.

Bernie isn't remotely a hof cf, Beltran, Lofton, Andruw, Edmonds, Hunter

I mean, given how high the standard is, Bernie is pretty far from a hall of famer at CF. But one of these things is not like the others -- Bernie at his best was better than Hunter could dream of being, and Hunter's small edge in WAR is down to iffy defensive stats.

If I had wand-waving powers, I'd put Beltran and Jones in, and I'd think pretty hard about Edmonds and Lofton. But Torii Hunter is a cut below those guys.

50. Booey Posted: October 11, 2022 at 10:42 PM (#6100514)

#49 - He'll also be dealing with much less crowded ballots than Piazza was though. Piazza debuted with Bonds, Clemens, Sosa, Schilling, and Biggio. And the next several years were pretty stacked too.

51. SoSH U at work Posted: October 11, 2022 at 10:46 PM (#6100517)

#49 - He'll also be dealing with much less crowded ballots than Piazza was th

That also hurt Edmonds and Lofton (particularly Kenny).

I think if they debuted now, both would have had a decent chance of a Rolen-like climb.

52. The Honorable Ardo Posted: October 12, 2022 at 01:20 AM (#6100528)

Whether Yadier Molina belongs in the Hall of Merit is a fascinating, and challenging, question. But I'm certain he'll be inducted by the writers into Cooperstown; he simply has too great a reputation as a charismatic leader for multiple World Champions.

53. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: October 12, 2022 at 11:59 AM (#6100560)

Posada absolutely deserved more consideration. But if Edmonds/Lofton is one and done, yet Bernie got a second vote, I think he did well enough. Bernie isn't remotely a hof cf, Beltran, Lofton, Andruw, Edmonds, Hunter all destroy him as contemporaries.

Well, I think Edmonds, Lofton and Jones are all at least borderline and deserved more consideration than they got. If someone like Vizquel was on track to be elected before the DV accusations, then all the above guys were underrated by the voters. So I don't have a problem saying that Bernie should have gotten more consideration, too. He's a bit below borderline if you believe the defensive stats, but should get some credit for nearly a season's worth of postseason games played at a level comparable to his regular season performance.

54. SoSH U at work Posted: October 12, 2022 at 12:04 PM (#6100561)

Well, I think Edmonds, Lofton and Jones are all at least borderline and deserved more consideration than they got.

Edmonds and Lofton, sure. But Jones still has a decent chance of working his way up to election.

55. cardsfanboy

Posted: October 12, 2022 at 12:36 PM (#6100569)

I mean, given how high the standard is, Bernie is pretty far from a hall of famer at CF. But one of these things is not like the others -- Bernie at his best was better than Hunter could dream of being, and Hunter's small edge in WAR is down to iffy defensive stats.

Yep, my bad, I just grabbed the name out of the air and didn't really look at his numbers (I glanced at both their War to verify my statement was correct, but my mind went 'Hunter over 50, and for some reason I saw Bernie as low 40's not 49')

Well, I think Edmonds, Lofton and Jones are all at least borderline and deserved more consideration than they got.

Obviously I agree, my point though is that there is a pretty large gap between them and Bernie, and if they are borderline, that border is awfully thick if it includes Bernie.

Bernie lasted on more ballots than either Lofton or Edmonds, so in regards to the original comment, he got more support than superior contemporary same position players did. And he received more votes than Lofton when they were on the ballot together. (mind you it was one vote)

56. Ithaca2323 Posted: October 12, 2022 at 09:54 PM (#6100672)

Bernie lasted on more ballots than either Lofton or Edmonds, so in regards to the original comment, he got more support than superior contemporary same position players did. And he received more votes than Lofton when they were on the ballot together. (mind you it was one vote)

This lacks literally all of the context that's critical to understanding what actually happened, beyond the factually accurate yet largely meaningless point that Williams got more votes and lasted more ballots..

Williams debuted on the last ballot before an influx of PED guys*.

*Bonds, Clemens, Piazza, and Sosa.

Williams also debuted on a weak ballot, as no 1st-timers other than him even made ballot #2. The non-Williams 1st-ballot guys got a total of 19 votes.

The 2013 ballot was much stronger, as not only did you have those 4 PED guys, you had first-year Schilling getting 221 votes.

So unsurprisingly, a stronger ballot headlined by a bunch of PED guys cratered Williams' support in 2013.

Edmonds had an even worse fate in 2016. Not only were all those PED guys still on the ballot, most were getting a higher percentage of the vote. Bonds and Clemens had gone up 8 percentage points, Piazza had gone up 26 percentage points, and Sosa had gone down 5 points. In addition, the first-ballot guys included Griffey (99.3%) and Hoffman (67.3%). Billy Wagner also survived to a second ballot.

Their first ballots were really nothing alike. Edmonds had a much, much, much tougher go. The 2013 and 2016 ballots were a lot closer, though Edmonds' was still tougher

57. SoSH U at work Posted: October 12, 2022 at 10:26 PM (#6100677)

I don't think Edmonds' was any tougher than Lofton's for two reasons. First, Lofton was the seventh best newcomer, rather than the fourth*. I don't know if the seventh best ballot arrival has ever survived to see another.

Second, in 2013 voters were still operating under the old system, with very few of them using their entire ballots. By 2016, 10-person ballots were almost the norm.

But yes, your main point is spot on. Even Williams' barely better performance than Lofton in 2013 shouldn't be seen as evidence he was viewed as the stronger candidate, given voter behavior.

* In reality, he was the second best, save for the BBWAA's closer fetish.

58. Ithaca2323 Posted: October 13, 2022 at 01:03 PM (#6100721)

Lofton was the seventh best newcomer, rather than the fourth*. I don't know if the seventh best ballot arrival has ever survived to see another.

Except again, 5 of those 6 newcomers ahead of Lofton in 2013 were still on the ballot in 2016. So Edmonds had most of Lofton's mess, plus two huge newcomers of his own.

Imagine a world with no PED suspicions.

Lofton still has to deal with those four guys who were all debuting. He should do a bit better with Bagwell and McGwire off. He might find the 10-11 votes he needed

But Edmonds' also only needs 11 votes to survive, and his ballot would be without Bagwell, McGwire AND Sosa, Piazza, Bonds and Clemens.

59. SoSH U at work Posted: October 13, 2022 at 01:28 PM (#6100725)

Except again, 5 of those 6 newcomers ahead of Lofton in 2013 were still on the ballot in 2016. So Edmonds had most of Lofton's mess, plus two huge newcomers of his own.

Imagine a world with no PED suspicions.

Lofton still has to deal with those four guys who were all debuting. He should do a bit better with Bagwell and McGwire off. He might find the 10-11 votes he needed

But Edmonds' also only needs 11 votes to survive, and his ballot would be without Bagwell, McGwire AND Sosa, Piazza, Bonds and Clemens.

I would definitely agree that in a world without PEDs, Edmonds' ballot would be much easier than Lofton's. But I don't think that helps your point.

First of all, let's get this out of the way, Lofton appears more deserving. If they switched places, Edmonds gets fewer votes and Lofton might see a second (it would help him there that the electorate was definitely getting more stat friendly, something that's accelerated since then).

But I still think you're ignoring two very important factors: their relative position among first-year eligibles, since first-year eligibles are treated differently by some percentage of the electorate. I think being the seventh best is going to get traction, more so than fourth.

More important, you're ignoring that voters in 2013 used up 6.6 votes per ballot. Two years later, they were using up 8.5 votes per ballot. That's more than enough to absorb Griffey's votes and the gains by others (which were somewhat offset, of course, by Jack's exodus in 2014).

In full context, I think Lofton's position was a little worse.

60. Ithaca2323 Posted: October 13, 2022 at 04:13 PM (#6100762)

More important, you're ignoring that voters in 2013 used up 6.6 votes per ballot. Two years later, they were using up 8.5 votes per ballot. That's more than enough to absorb Griffey's votes and the gains by others (which were somewhat offset, of course, by Jack's exodus in 2014).

You're also absorbing Hoffman's votes

But I still think you're ignoring two very important factors: their relative position among first-year eligibles, since first-year eligibles are treated differently by some percentage of the electorate.

What evidence is this based on?

In 2013, Lofton finished 20th in the voting, behind two PED associated guys who would probably not be on the ballot otherwise (Raffy and Bagwell)

in 2016, Edmonds finished 20th in the voting, behind six PED associated guys ahead of him who would not be on the ballot (Piazza, Bagwell, Bonds, Clemens, McGwire, Sosa).

In that context, I'd say Edmonds actually did much better than Lofton

61. SoSH U at work Posted: October 13, 2022 at 04:42 PM (#6100769)

You're also absorbing Hoffman's votes

I was already accounting for the addition of Hoffman with the absence of Biggio (as their first-year totals almost perfectly offset one another).

What evidence is this based on?

Take Carlton Fisk. Easy Hall of Famer. But he debuted with three other first-ballot guys, so he waits an extra year. Ballots weren't filled. Voters, particularly before the shutout, often put limits on themselves. They're not going to vote for x number of new entries, regardless how each guy stacks up. So being further down the class pecking order has to hurt.

There's no question that both Edmonds and Lofton were hurt by the ballot they arrived on. I doubt either one of them fails to gain traction if they debuted just a few years later (Andruw is pretty good evidence of that).

62. Raymondus Posted: November 23, 2022 at 02:05 AM (#6106559)

I can't imagine 75% of writers going all in on that narrative. I hope he doesn't drag Wainwright along with him
Geometry Dash Unblocked

63. TomH Posted: November 23, 2022 at 08:19 AM (#6106569)

1) Who are the worst hitters in the HoF (duh, only counting those elected as position players)?
2) Who are the worst hitting catchers in the HoF?
3) Will "Yadier Molina" be the new answer to one if not both questions in 2029?

Seriously, someone tell me what HOFer hit worse than Molina. *Maybe* Luis Aparicio, but if you count baserunning/stealing/avoiding GIDP, I am not even sure he counts.

64. Booey Posted: November 23, 2022 at 09:54 AM (#6106573)

#63 - Ozzie Smith, Rabbit Maranville

65. TomH Posted: November 23, 2022 at 10:26 AM (#6106582)

agree on Maranville, good one.

Wizard of Oz may have been less of a "hitter" than Yadier, but he was a more valuable player on offense overall. The speed difference was huge.

66. BDC

Posted: November 23, 2022 at 10:37 AM (#6106586)

Jim Sundberg was marvelous to watch. A single anecdote, but I remember him once dekeing Wade Boggs into a strikeout. Boggs liked to peek down and see where a catcher was setting up, and it looked like Sundberg was going to call for a wasted pitch on a two-strike count, setting up far outside. Then just at delivery Sundberg adjusted, the pitch was down the middle, Boggs took it and was angry about it but, what can you say, you struck out. Just a style point, but one of the reasons why he won six Gold Gloves.

But Sundberg's career OPS+ was 90 and his career high was 119 in a strike-shortened year. Molina, as mentioned above, had a three-year peak where he was truly a fine hitter. I remember some thread here based on an article that claimed that Molina had gotten as good with the bat as Johnny Bench ever was, which was not correct; but that somebody could make the claim at all is indicative. Molina's very best year with the bat would be a middling year for Johnny Bench. Sundberg's better full hitting seasons would have been middling years for Johnny Edwards.

67. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: November 23, 2022 at 10:37 AM (#6106587)

Rick Ferrell and Ray Schalk are both worse than Molina on hitting alone.

68. Mefisto Posted: November 23, 2022 at 11:05 AM (#6106590)

Rick Ferrell got credit for his brother's hitting.

69. SoSH U at work Posted: November 23, 2022 at 11:06 AM (#6106591)

Rick Ferrell and Ray Schalk are both worse than Molina on hitting alone.

He did specify writers selections.

And Ozzie maybe, but I don't think Aparicio's baserunning can make up the that difference in OPS.

70. Jaack Posted: November 23, 2022 at 12:41 PM (#6106612)

Nellie Fox was two votes away from being a writer selection - I'd say he was a worse hitter than Yadi, but again baserunning throws a wrench in that.

71. TomH Posted: November 23, 2022 at 01:41 PM (#6106627)

per bb-ref
player Rbat Rrun Rdp Rfield Rpos WAA WAR Rbat+run+dp
Aparicio -198 92 .18 . 149 . 154 . 20 . 56 . -088
Y Molina -48 -39 -28 . 138 . 136 . 16 . 42 . -105

72. Ariadne Posted: November 30, 2022 at 11:13 PM (#6107417)

I know I enjoyed seeing Molina and Pujols get hits in their final at-bats - a fitting end to their careers. It's strange that Goldschmidt went 0-7 after a 180 OPS+ season. But bad things happen.
world of mario

73. alilisd Posted: December 01, 2022 at 02:35 PM (#6107491)

Booey Posted: October 10, 2022 at 04:45 PM (#6100310)
One more thing regarding Yadi (and others); if you don't think he's a Hall of Famer - or Mauer, or Posey, or even Votto (since there was a thread earlier this season where some questioned his worthiness) - who from their era IS a HOFer? How many no doubt HOF position players debuted in the decade between 2001 (Pujols/Ichiro) and 2011 (Trout)? With Cano thoroughly removing his name from consideration, I count exactly one from those 9 seasons (2002-2010): Cabrera in 2003.

Interesting question. After all those ruled out, maybe Longoria? Probably depends on how analytical the electorate has become by the time he's due on the ballot. Really short career by PA's, not a lot of Ink and low on Standards, but from a WAR perspective he stacks up pretty well. Seems like a bunch of guys with HOF talent who were felled by injuries like Pedroia, Wright and Tulowitski.

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