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Friday, April 02, 2021

OT - Soccer Thread - Spring is in the Air

NWSL kicks of on April 9, we learn who the last UWCL semi-finalist is on April 18, we watch as Chelsea and Man City duke it out for the FA WSL title, and follow some minor stories like the Premier League run-in and the Fella’s Champions League last 8. Springtime COVID ball! Please don’t catch a fever!

The Marksist Posted: April 02, 2021 at 11:20 AM | 399 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: off topic, soccer

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   301. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 02, 2021 at 01:19 PM (#6016528)
One interesting thing about Juve is that despite winning so many Scudetto's in a row, they haven't been the clear best team in the league for years, and the last few years there were arguably a few teams each year at least their equal. Unlike recent years, after the game today (win or lose) they will very likely be leading serie A in xPoints and xGD. The only real difference is that the table has caught up to them. Whether or not you believe Juve was better than their underlying stats each year, staying on top of the league for so many years despite not being obviously better than their competition was never going to last. Juve's underlying stats, in the last several years at least, have never been dominant like PSG in Ligue 1 or even Bayern in the Bundesliga.

So is Pirlo really doing a bad job? Not that obviously worse than his predecessors, but results matter.
   302. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 02, 2021 at 01:52 PM (#6016532)
Two late goals for Juve to come from behind and win at Udinese. They looked sloppy most of the game but still had all the chances, and xG will not be close.

With the win, and especially with Napoli failing to win today, Juve is again very likely to make the CL next year. A win next week over Milan and it's virtually assured. Even a draw and they would still be in very good shape, and a loss wouldn't be a killer, though a loss would put them at under 50% to qualify.
   303. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 02, 2021 at 02:08 PM (#6016535)
I imagine they'll have to make up the United/Liverpool game. United plays twice a week from here on out, except for the FA cup weekend. Liverpool is currently scheduled to play West Brom that same weekend. If I had to guess, admittedly without knowing much, I'd say they move that West Brom/Liverpool game up a few days to the midweek slush spot and have United/Liverpool that weekend. All the other makeup games are already slated for that midweek spot: United/Leicester and Chelsea Arsenal (both Leicester and Chelsea being in the FA Cup final), and the two stragglers: Southampton/Palace and Villa/Everton.
   304. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: May 02, 2021 at 03:11 PM (#6016543)
I know it's just Sheffield United, but it's still nice to see Spurs with 75% of the ball. And another Bale goal.
   305. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: May 02, 2021 at 03:50 PM (#6016547)
And another Bale goal.


Hat-trick hero, baby!
   306. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 02, 2021 at 04:46 PM (#6016552)
Wild scenes in the huge Monaco/Lyon game. Monaco led most of the game, then Lyon outplayed them for a long stretch and got the equalizer. Down to 10, Lyon got the go ahead goal. Then a long cross into the box for Monaco and the keeper comes out late and gets a glancing punch into the Monaco player's face: penalty and 2-2. Lyon was a little lucky not to go down to 9 on the play, as the keeper got only a yellow.

edit: and then Lyon get a second goal when they were down a man, this time in the 90th minute, to take the lead. 2-3 now.

This marks the end of Monaco's title chase (sadly now it's just up to Lille), but it also means that the last CL spot is very open between these two teams.
   307. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 03, 2021 at 01:35 AM (#6016613)
No EPL team has given up fewer than 50 goals while being relegated (although Norwich gave up 54 in a 42-game season, which pro-rated to 38 games is just under 49 goals). Fulham has given up just 45 with 4 games to go. They could even win all of them and still be relegated. Burnley has also only given up 45, but if they end up relegated it's extremely likely they will have over 50 against.
   308. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: May 03, 2021 at 08:20 AM (#6016624)
So, anything interesting happen in the ManU-Liverpool game?
   309. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 03, 2021 at 11:40 AM (#6016649)
Odds to advance in europe:
City          85.5
Chelsea       59.5

United        99
Villarreal    56
   310. manchestermets Posted: May 03, 2021 at 01:35 PM (#6016662)
United have played Villareal 6 times, and every time the score has been 0-0. If xG had existed then, the score in that might have been 0-0 every time too. If they both get to the final it might not be an exciting game.
   311. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 03, 2021 at 02:39 PM (#6016677)
There's a monsoon in West Bromwich at the moment.

West Brom has come back to level, and with this crazy weather anything (or nothing) could happen in the last 10 minutes of the game.
   312. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 03, 2021 at 02:53 PM (#6016681)
Finished in a draw, which means West Brom is even more all but dead. They are very likely be eliminated next weekend.

Wolves failing to win, and now they face Brighton next week. A win by Brighton in that one, and Brighton might be odds on to finish 12th in the table (behind only the top 6, plus Leicester, West Ham, Everton, Villa, and Leeds).
   313. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 03, 2021 at 05:25 PM (#6016699)
Top 4 odds
Leicester    76
Chelsea      71
Liverpool    28
West Ham     16
Tottenham     8.5
Everton       0.5

Relegation odds
West Brom     99.5
Fulham        95
Newcastle      3
Burnley        1.5
Field          1
   314. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 03, 2021 at 06:15 PM (#6016706)
EPL has had 337 games played. Home teams have 125 wins, 132 losses, 80 draws.

43 games left to be played. Odds expect approximately: 19 home wins, 14 home losses, and 10 home draws.

Could be very tight whether we have more home losses than wins this year.
   315. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 04, 2021 at 09:29 AM (#6016795)
Mourinho in at Roma for 2021/2022! Responses to the Roma twitter announcement are less than positive.
   316. Mefisto Posted: May 04, 2021 at 09:37 AM (#6016797)
Weird that they'd announce this before Thursday's game. I can't think it will improve morale. Certainly not Mkhitaryan's. The upside is that I don't follow Italian football and won't have to think about Mourinho for a while.
   317. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 04, 2021 at 01:17 PM (#6016859)
Mbappe won't start today.
   318. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 04, 2021 at 03:07 PM (#6016901)
Neither team looks that great yet trying to control the ball yet with snow on the field. On balance that probably helps PSG slightly.
   319. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 04, 2021 at 03:50 PM (#6016912)
Sloppy but fairly even first half. City took their one good chance and PSG didn't. Not a lot of opportunities either way which City would certainly have taken coming in, and the goal was a bonus. It did look like City had a harder time controlling the ball and the game due to the weather, but of course they also had much les to worry about without Mbappe running behind them.

City got their one goal off the counter, but haven't otherwise really taken advantage of PSG pushing hard for a goal to get any other good looks.
   320. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: May 04, 2021 at 03:54 PM (#6016915)
I can't see PSG turning this around. #### happens etc...but I can't imagine City blowing this lead.
   321. spivey 2 Posted: May 04, 2021 at 04:27 PM (#6016926)
So sad to see City even out their terrible CL luck vs Pochettino.
   322. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 04, 2021 at 04:32 PM (#6016927)
On the balance of 2 games it's been fairly even so far, with maybe only the slightest edge to City. PSG coming up 3 goals short definitely undersells them by a lot. On the other hand, PSG going out will against the best team in the world will have been a missed opportunity, but not a great injustice.

(Di Maria gets a red.) Oh come on PSG. Their petulance makes it a bit hard to root for them. That happened in the first game too. WTF.
   323. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 04, 2021 at 04:34 PM (#6016929)
In other fun news, Rotherham failed to win in their game in hand. That means Wednesday is still alive. They just need to beat Derby and have Rotherham again fail to win this weekend.
   324. jmurph Posted: May 04, 2021 at 04:35 PM (#6016930)
Yeah I don't know the analyst's name but he's usually great, I enjoy this broadcast team, but I'm pretty sure we're not going to be hearing from him for a while after the "latino temperament" comment.

EDIT: Not the greatest apology but at least he acknowledged it!
   325. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 04, 2021 at 04:43 PM (#6016933)
I think the snow mostly coming off the field due to the rain helped City control the ball a little better.
   326. jmurph Posted: May 04, 2021 at 04:44 PM (#6016934)
Oh thank god Pep is taking KDB off, I've been yelling for 10 minutes.
   327. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: May 04, 2021 at 07:30 PM (#6016965)
PSG should have probably had two more reds, they really lost their tempers.
   328. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: May 04, 2021 at 08:38 PM (#6016983)
Their petulance makes it a bit hard to root for them.

Personally, I think teams should be commended when they adopt the personality of the city they play in.
   329. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 05, 2021 at 03:26 PM (#6017105)
xG has been absolutely anemic on both sides so far, but Chelsea just missed a few times, including the offside goal (where there was no good reason for Werner to be in an offside position considering the way the play unfolded).

edit: spoke a tad too soon, as Chelsea just scored. Chelsea does deserve at least a half goal lead the way they have played so far.
   330. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: May 05, 2021 at 03:37 PM (#6017112)
I think Chelsea have pretty clearly been the better team. Of course just as I'm about to say Real haven't made many chances Benzema gets a doozy of a chance. Still, Chelsea have to feel good not just about the score but the way the game has been played.
   331. The Marksist Posted: May 05, 2021 at 03:45 PM (#6017114)
As an American Liverpool fan, I'm not sure who I'm "supposed" to be rooting for here. I really, really hate Madrid, so find myself leaning Chelsea. But I think that might be "wrong" from a UK perspective? It's very confusing.
   332. bunyon Posted: May 05, 2021 at 03:47 PM (#6017115)
I would assume an Englishmen would relish the idea of two EPL teams in the Champions League final. But perhaps rivalry trumps that.
   333. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 05, 2021 at 03:53 PM (#6017117)
45 minutes left, and if anything, the 2-1 aggregate scoreline undersells Chelsea. They've been the clear better team so far, and the games have played out more or less exactly like Chelsea would have wanted them to. You can't expect to keep real Madrid to 0 chances and 0 goals over 180 minutes, but what Chelsea has been doing is the next best thing. Real Madrid doesn't seem to have any answers for it.

Of course the tie is still in doubt because this Chelsea team under Tuchel does play a controlled defensive style so won't blow many teams out, and on top of that they were also probably a little unlucky not to have a third goal by now.

If Real Madrid doesn't score early in the second half and has to get increasingly desperate, it could be a fun finish with chances at both ends.
   334. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: May 05, 2021 at 04:10 PM (#6017122)
It's not quite so simple but from Real's standpoint getting the game opened up is a positive. At this point another Chelsea goal is not that important. Whether or not Chelsea score again Real need two to win the tie. Obviously that ignores the possibility of extra time which can't be dismissed but if I'm Real I don't wait too long before trying to get aggressive.
   335. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 05, 2021 at 04:19 PM (#6017125)
ok at this point the tie really should be over. Chelsea should have hit on one of these by now.
   336. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: May 05, 2021 at 04:25 PM (#6017126)
Another one. If Real escape Chelsea are going to be kicking themselves for decades.
   337. bunyon Posted: May 05, 2021 at 04:38 PM (#6017129)
No kidding. It could easily be 4-0
   338. bunyon Posted: May 05, 2021 at 04:46 PM (#6017131)
It took an American.
   339. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 05, 2021 at 04:47 PM (#6017135)
It might end up as a 1-0 half, but that second half was pure dominance. Rudiger yelling at his teammates because they allowed one free cross pretty much sums up how little Real Madrid could do against Chelsea. The fact that Real Madrid needed a goal and could do nothing at all underscores the point even more.
   340. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 05, 2021 at 05:04 PM (#6017142)
With that result, I think this year England will surpass the highest single-year points tally for teams in Europe. The previous record was Spain in 2015-2016. The key this year is that the English teams have hardly lost any games. Just 12 out of 78. Chelsea has only lost 1 game, and City has been almost perfect. Their onnly draw came in a meaningless game in the group stage, where they absolutely dominated but didn't score. Easily canceled out by the PSG results of course where 2 wins flattered them, but still pretty remarkable.

Chelsea to me looks like a superb team right now. I think they'll give City all they can handle. Betting odds are giving City 65% to win. I would definitely take Chelsea at those odds.
   341. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 05, 2021 at 06:03 PM (#6017156)
Slightly subtle point, but PSG being given 40% or so chance to beat City over 2 legs means betting odds thinks they were a LOT better than Chelsea, who is being given just 35% in a one-off. My best guess is Chelsea is at least as good as PSG right now, and maybe even a worse matchup for City.
   342. bunyon Posted: May 05, 2021 at 06:09 PM (#6017159)
How do they play it this weekend? It seems to me that City has nothing to play for while Chelsea has a lot. I don't know soccer nearly as well as other sports. Is there worry with letting a team "get to know you"? Should City just play scrubs?

OTOH, if they win, they clinch the EPL, right?
   343. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 05, 2021 at 07:11 PM (#6017180)
I have no idea what City will do. The final isn't until the 29th, so there is no reason to rest up for it. Pep also hardly ever likes to take a game off, and a lot of other teams are relying on City to put up a good showing.

That said, here is some interesting context from betting odds.
In the final on a neutral field over 120 minutes (I think), City is being given: 51% win, 26% draw, 23% loss (65% to win the CL).
This weekend, in Manchester with small covid home field advantage, City is being given: 50% win, 27% draw, 23% loss.

That's virtually identical.
   344. Baldrick Posted: May 05, 2021 at 09:20 PM (#6017209)
Chelsea into the Champions League final on both the men's and women's side of things. First time that's ever happened. I make them modest favorites on the women's side, so it's certainly possible that they win both. That would really be something special.
   345. Richard Posted: May 05, 2021 at 09:58 PM (#6017217)
As an American Liverpool fan, I'm not sure who I'm "supposed" to be rooting for here. I really, really hate Madrid, so find myself leaning Chelsea. But I think that might be "wrong" from a UK perspective? It's very confusing.


I would assume an Englishmen would relish the idea of two EPL teams in the Champions League final. But perhaps rivalry trumps that.



In my experience most English based fans of non self styled "Big 6" teams hate all of those teams to one degree or another. I suspect that more people would want Man City to win than Chelsea, because Chelsea are historically more disliked than Man City.

That is one of the problems with the CL. When Liverpool got to the final in the 1980s, I would root for them as England's sole representative. Now? Meh. Can't they both lose?

The only good thing about this final is the clubs they knocked out in the semi finals are even more horrible.
   346. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 06, 2021 at 03:21 PM (#6017360)
No shots yet for Arsenal in a very dull game so far. 20 minutes in and neither team looks in a rush to do anything. While Arsenal can squeak through with a 1-0 win, the longer the game goes on like this the worse Arsenal's odds of advancing will get.

   347. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 06, 2021 at 04:16 PM (#6017387)
Looks like Chelsea is even bigger underdogs in the women's final, against Barca next weekend. 30% or so to take the title.
   348. Textbook Editor Posted: May 06, 2021 at 04:20 PM (#6017388)
Just putting this here...

I believe it is still the case that 6 teams can't get into the CL from one country, correct?

This of course means that the fates are gonna make it so Spurs will finish 4th ahead of Chelsea and Arsenal, but then Chelsea and Arsenal will win the CL and Europa League, respectively, and Spurs will be screwed out of a CL spot.
   349. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: May 06, 2021 at 04:24 PM (#6017390)
The new system seems to suggest they can. That's not exactly certain though I don't think.

Premier League clubs today discussed new UEFA proposals which could lead to six English clubs playing in the Champions League, reports Matt Slater.

The Athletic understands that UEFA plans to expand the Champions League ahead of the 2024-25 season. UEFA is in support of a ‘Swiss-model’ format for the tournament, which would see a 36-team league replace the 32-team group stage.
   350. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 06, 2021 at 04:44 PM (#6017392)
Arsenal could have won the tie a few times tonight. Over two games it's been even enough that either team could have won, but based on the game today Arsenal will likely be kicking themselves a bit if they can't get a late goal here.

Manchester United apparently had no interest in playing defense today. Can't really blame them, considering the scoreline of the first game. Some crazy big chances for Roma in that game though.
   351. Textbook Editor Posted: May 06, 2021 at 05:21 PM (#6017411)
Huzzah!
   352. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 06, 2021 at 09:01 PM (#6017454)
United is being given about 67.5% chance to win Europa.
   353. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 07, 2021 at 12:08 AM (#6017493)
The Liverpool/United makeup game was rescheduled. I guess they moved other stuff around too, and now United has 3 games in 5 days. That's worse than the festive period schedule. Could be a big break for Liverpool as they face United in the last of three, at a time where United will surely have nothing left to play for. Liverpool's previous game is tomorrow, so they will have 4 full days off prior.
   354. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 07, 2021 at 10:25 AM (#6017534)
The gnashing of teeth over Arsenal's season makes sense coming now in some ways, now that they are effectively out of Europe. In other ways the timing couldn't be more off. Arsenal has been much better over the second half of the season--probably top 5 in the league over that span, and played a solid Villarreal even over two legs (slightly better on xG with the penalty), and really should have won the second game, creating more than enough chances to get a goal on an average day. Arsenal was only given something like 57% to win the tie coming in, and despite some terrible play over the first 45 minutes of the first leg, that's pretty much right where it turned out based on play on the field.

Arsenal will definitely be picked to finish top 6 next year. Unless something wacky happens, City, Liverpool, Chelsea, and United will be picked for top 4, but Arsenal will be in the next two.
   355. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 07, 2021 at 03:42 PM (#6017620)
Newcastle is up 0-2 in a huge game in Leicester, for both ends of the table. No fluke so far, either, as it has mostly been one-way traffic. They even missed their biggest chance when Schmeichel came up with a great save.

Lille up 0-1 in their hardest remaining game. The goal came on their only shot so far, a very early penalty. And now a second yellow for Lens, who are down to 10. It has never looked so rosy for Lille. edit: 0-2 now on just 2 shots, the second one from way out.

edit2: in case it needs to be said, a win today makes Lille pretty big favorites to win Ligue 1 over PSG. Win their last two as well and it's theirs, and if PSG drops any points in their last 3 games, Lille can also still win it by dropping the same or less in their last 2 games. Lille hosts St. Etienne and then goes to Angers. Both are mediocre teams with nothing left to play for this year.
   356. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 07, 2021 at 04:37 PM (#6017629)
This 1-4 scoreline is high enough that if Liverpool catches Leicester they probably also pass them in GD. Liverpool is currently 9 points behind Leicester, but they have 2 games in hand. Leicester's schedule is not easy. Leicester also now will almost certainly finish behind on GD to Chelsea or Spurs, if they end up level on points. West Ham would probably still finish behind.

edit: winning by 3 doesn't help Newcastle that much. If Fulham are to catch Newcastle now, every single result has to go their way, which means Fulham will finish ahead of Newcastle on GD no matter what. I guess it could help if they also finish level with Burnley or one of the other teams. A 3-way tie at 39 points with Fulam and another team is extremely unlikely at this point.

edit2: heh. 2-4 now.
   357. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 07, 2021 at 05:29 PM (#6017642)
Worth noting that it's not just Liverpool that might benefit from United's insane schedule, it's also the team they are now most likely to catch: Leicester. That's bad for the final two teams (West Ham and Tottenham) and I guess for Chelsea too though at this point I'd be quite surprised if Chelsea doesn't get one of the last two spots.
   358. Richard Posted: May 07, 2021 at 08:34 PM (#6017672)
And so begins Leicester’s annual quest to throw away a CL spot...
   359. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 07, 2021 at 08:44 PM (#6017674)
9 permutations for the Derby/Wednesday and Cardiff/Rotherham games:

1 & 2: Wednesday wins and Rotherham loses or draws: Wednesday stays up (23%)
3 & 4: Rotherham wins and Derby loses or draws: Rotherham stays up (20%)
5 - 9: Derby wins, or Derby draws and Rotherham loses or draws: Derby stays up (57%)

The results of the games are not fully independent. For example, if Rotherham is winning Derby knows they have to push for a win, and if Rotherham is winning big Wednesday knows they are probably out already. If Derby is winning big Rotherham knows they might be out already. If Rotherham is losing Derby might try to play for the draw.
   360. Richard Posted: May 07, 2021 at 11:13 PM (#6017715)
Wednesday will survive. They will get a lead early and that will be that. Derby are shocking and Rooney doesn’t know what he’s doing. Wednesday have by far the better goalkeeper and several potential match winners.

Rotherham will not win at Cardiff. They cannot score enough goals.

In an attempt to temper my disappointment I have bet on Wednesday to win, as I always do in these situations.
   361. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 08, 2021 at 07:44 AM (#6017732)
I'm not particularly knowledgeable about the Championship, but even I know that Wycombe and Rotherham were among the very least favored teams coming onto the year. Those two going down would not have come as a surprise.

If I'm reading Wikipedia right, Derby in their entire history have only spent a few years in the third tier: a couple years in the 50s and a couple more in the 80s. Wednesday has spent a few more in the third tier. They had a spell in the 70s, and then three more times this century, most recently in 2011-2012.

Rotherham got a goal already, so as it stands Rotherham stays up and both Wednesday and Derby are down.
   362. Richard Posted: May 08, 2021 at 08:06 AM (#6017733)
Yes, Derby were last that low in 1986.

I am watching Wednesday v Derby. A poor quality game, no clear chances. Rotherham well on top but need more than one goal I fear.
   363. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 08, 2021 at 08:27 AM (#6017735)
Wednesday get the goal. Now Derby is really hanging by a thread now, being the team that needs two more goals to go their way to survive.

Barnsley is leading at the half, while Bournemouth is trailing. That means it's very likely that Brentford plays Bournemouth in the playoff first round. The winner of that one will be favored to go up.
   364. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 08, 2021 at 08:46 AM (#6017737)
It really doesn't help Rotherham that their game is way ahead of the Derby/Wednesday one. (Seriously, way ahead at this point.) If Rotherham holds on to win, Wednesday will know they are out and may not exactly finish the game strong against a potentially determined Derby.

On the other hand, if Rotherham drops a point somewhere along the line, we could have a crazy finish in the Derby/Wednesday game where it's all or nothing for both teams for the last 10 minutes after the end of the Rotherham game.

edit: and Derby with a nice play and goal, finally. That means Derby is just one goal away now (in this game or the Rotherham game), and Wednesday now 2 goals away again (at least 1 in each game).

edit2: and another goal for Derby! Derby in for now, Rotherham out for now, and Wednesday all but dead.
   365. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 08, 2021 at 09:01 AM (#6017738)
Sheesh. Bad mistake by Derby and Wednesday draws level.

edit: and another for Wednesday. I don't know the offside rule where the ball is played a foot from the goal line, while the offensive player receiving the pass has a foot over the goal line, and probably past the last defender, who might have been right on the goal line. Derby back hanging by a thread, and Wednesday now just needs help from Cardiff. (Cardiff doesn't look like they are about to provide any help.)
   366. Richard Posted: May 08, 2021 at 09:04 AM (#6017739)
Derby gift wrap an equaliser to Wednesday. 2-2
   367. Richard Posted: May 08, 2021 at 09:13 AM (#6017741)
And now Wednesday lead 3-2. What a poor team Derby are.
   368. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 08, 2021 at 09:17 AM (#6017742)
Well. After that first 30 minutes you would not have foreseen this, but at least we're having a barn burner. Level again. And Cardiff scores as well! Derby back in for now! Wednesday and Rotherham are each a goal away. Madness.

edit: and that's it for Rotherham. The late goal by Cardiff killed 'em. Derby will just have to try to hang on against a highly motivated Wednesday.
   369. Richard Posted: May 08, 2021 at 09:19 AM (#6017743)
This is nuts.
   370. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 08, 2021 at 09:36 AM (#6017745)
Derby survives! Rooney avoids ignominy! A fitting end to Wednesday's catastrophic season as they couldn't hold on to their lead, twice.
   371. Richard Posted: May 08, 2021 at 09:41 AM (#6017746)
What a game. And the right result.
   372. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 08, 2021 at 09:48 AM (#6017747)
With Tottenham's loss, they need to win out and get a lot of help, to get the last CL spot. It's very unlikely now. They are also letting Europa slip away, and especially if Chelsea doesn't become the fifth CL team, are lining themselves up for the Europa Conference League.
   373. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: May 08, 2021 at 10:48 AM (#6017751)
That was some crazy stuff. It was capped by the fact that ESPN+ cut out about 30 seconds before the final whistle. That was fun.

Barca-Atleti has been um...cagey seems to be the appropriate word. Most interesting part is Ronald Koeman up in the stands is just blatantly on his phone giving instructions.

Now Busquets comes off with a head injury. He was examined by the doctor who said “oh yeah, he’s fine” then went on the pitch for about 10-15 seconds and just sat down and he’s off now. Good work by the doctor there.
   374. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: May 08, 2021 at 11:02 AM (#6017753)
It has picked up considerably. Atletico definitely the better team so far but Messi probably the best chance.
   375. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 08, 2021 at 11:11 AM (#6017754)
Dortmund was cruising as 2-0, but Leipzig have pulled both back. A draw by Dortmund is not good today, especially with Wolfsburg about to win.
   376. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 08, 2021 at 11:24 AM (#6017755)
Dortmund got the late goal they needed, in a pretty sloppily defended game. Bayern wins the title. Interestingly, Leipzig is not assured of a CL spot yet, but all 8 of the remaining results have to go against them I think for them to miss out.
   377. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: May 08, 2021 at 11:46 AM (#6017760)
are lining themselves up for the Europa Conference League.

Good?
   378. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 08, 2021 at 11:50 AM (#6017761)
The announcer in this game just pronounced "Trippier" the way Tommy Chong would.
   379. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 08, 2021 at 11:56 AM (#6017763)
A draw is a killer for Barcelona, as they would be more than a full game behind Atleti, who would have the tiebreaker (head-to-head in La Liga).

edit: oops that's not right. Still only 2 points back. Still, Atleti could survive a draw and stay ahead of Barca. Real Madrid would have the inside track with the tie breaker over both of them.
   380. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 08, 2021 at 12:12 PM (#6017765)
In some ways Barcelona's loss to Granada set up this result. A win in that game and Atleti maybe would have tried harder to win this one, leaving more room for Barcelona to operate. As it is, Barcelona is back to being big underdogs in the title race.
   381. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 08, 2021 at 12:30 PM (#6017773)
City's odds have gone down a little bit. I think maybe because of the line-up, which is heavily rotated from the PSG game. The only starters that overlap are Dias and Ederson.

Fror their part, Chelsea is only starting 4 + Mendy out of the same 11, so they are pretty heavily rotated too. The midfield and forward line is almost completely rotated.

I very much doubt that the majority of the players on the field right now will start in the CL final.
   382. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 08, 2021 at 01:07 PM (#6017779)
So you might have thought that Bayern would take the game off now that they have the title. If so, that would be forgetting that Lewa seems intent on breaking the scoring record this year. 2 goals today for him puts him at 38 now, 2 short of tying the record with 2.5 games to go. Bayern up 3-0 with 10 minutes to go in the half.
   383. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 08, 2021 at 01:51 PM (#6017784)
Chelsea still doesn't have a shot from inside the box. Oops they just scored, but that was also from outside the box.
   384. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 08, 2021 at 01:59 PM (#6017786)
Lewa with the hat trick now. Still 20+ minutes left.
   385. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 08, 2021 at 02:28 PM (#6017791)
First shot from Chelsea that was inside the box, though they had the goal that was just barely offside. Chelsea dominated the second half but didn't really have many chances.

Chelsea will almost certainly be top 4 now--winning just one of their last three games would very likely do it. That means the last spot is really between Leicester/Liverpool/WestHam.

United play three times before City plays again. Even if United wins all 3 games to pull within 4 points of City (and they won't), City would still have something like 99.8% chance to win the title.
   386. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 08, 2021 at 06:49 PM (#6017852)
For the first time in 3 months, Leicester is under 50% to be top 4. Liverpool is only a few percentage points behind now. Both play United next, so United will end up having a big say in which one (or maybe even West Ham, if United takes points from both of them) makes the CL next year.
   387. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 09, 2021 at 07:32 AM (#6017901)
Roma has been bad lately, and now is in danger of missing out on Europe, even the Europa Conference, completely. Mourinho can't really do worse than 8th with Roma, can he?
   388. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 09, 2021 at 08:20 AM (#6017902)
United starts a very strong lineup today, ahead of their rapid-fire games against Leicester and Liverpool. You have to think they'll be heavily rotated for at least one of those two games coming up. In particular, Leicester, who United faces in two days, is probably very happy to see all the starters out there today. Liverpool probably not so happy.

It probably shouldn't be a surprise. United would likely have wanted to play a near full-strength team against Liverpool just for rivalry reasons alone, and the schedule, with Leicester now coming in between the other two, makes it a more natural fit that Untied would rotate for the Leicester game. If that's what will happen, it's certainly a bad break for Liverpool though.

edit: betting odds have just shifted towards United winning against Villa, but very much towards Leicester winning in the next game. They've also shifted a bit towards Liverpool in that game, so maybe the thought is that United will rest players in the Liverpool game as well. Top 4 odds haven't shifted that much, if at all.
   389. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 09, 2021 at 08:50 AM (#6017904)
Red card on DOGSO killed Brighton today, who were probably the better team until the DOGSO play. Fulham could still catch Brighton, though it remains highly unlikely.

edit: and now I see Maupay also got a last-minute red. They'll be missing a couple players against West Hsm...
   390. Mefisto Posted: May 09, 2021 at 10:18 AM (#6017910)
United starts a very strong lineup today, ahead of their rapid-fire games against Leicester and Liverpool. You have to think they'll be heavily rotated for at least one of those two games coming up. In particular, Leicester, who United faces in two days, is probably very happy to see all the starters out there today. Liverpool probably not so happy.


This would be a no-brainer for United even if CL places weren't at issue.
   391. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 09, 2021 at 10:57 AM (#6017912)
Hardly a vintage performance, but United took care of business eventually. That means they have all but mathematically clinched a top 4 spot, and will likely rest even easier in the games against Liverpool and especially Leicester.

Ironically, the Manchester United fans protesting has screwed Liverpool a bit. I read somewhere (probably not true, but who knows) that the Liverpool game with West Brom wasn't moved to make room for the United/Liverpool makeup game as that would have punished Liverpool for something that was caused by United. To the extent there is any punishing of Liverpool, certainly it's the schedule as now arranged.
   392. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 09, 2021 at 11:11 AM (#6017913)
There have been some big results in relegation battles so far today: Eibar over Getafe, Cagliari over Benevento, and Freiburg over Koln. The big result at the other end of the table is happening right now, where Eintracht Frankfurt is trailing late to Mainz. If Frankfurt drops points today, now very likely, Wolfsburg and Dortmund will be huge favorites for the CL next year.

edit: and as I say that Frankfurt gets a goal from a player lying flat on the turf popping it over the keeper from 12 yards away. Not over yet.
   393. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 09, 2021 at 11:30 AM (#6017915)
Only a draw for Frankfurt. Dortmund is not in the clear yet. They have a tough game against Leverkusen in 2 weeks, and if things break wrong for them, they might need a win in that game where Leverkusen themselves are playing for Europa (rather than Europa Conference).
   394. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 09, 2021 at 11:52 AM (#6017916)
113 penalties this year in the EPL now today, so that breaks the all-time record. As noted before, the damage was done with VAR early. The last 20+ weeks haven't been that special.

Home teams are now 128 - 80 - 136. Very likely now teams will be under .500 at home this year. Watch out for that last weekend of the season though, as
   395. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 09, 2021 at 01:28 PM (#6017921)
9 v 10 now in the Villarreal game. Villareal down a man and 2 goals. If they don't win Europa this year they could be in Europa Conference next year, or even our of Europe ebtirely.
   396. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 09, 2021 at 04:06 PM (#6017934)
EPL Top 4 odds is now essentially a 2-team race for 1 slot.
Chelsea      92
Leicester    54.5
Liverpool    44
WestHam       5.5
Tottenhan     2.5
Everton       1.5


Assuming Liverpool or Leicester gets one of the Europa spots, the race for the other one, and the Conference League slot, is pretty wide open now, with WestHam, Spurs, and Everton all having a good shot. Arsenal has a way outside chance.

WestBrom is finally officially relegated, and a loss tomorrow would finish off Fulham as well. A draw and Fulham is all but done. A win and there is still a sliver of hope.

Sevilla is beating RealMadrid right now. If only they had not slipped up last week against Athletic. They would have a real shot at the title right now, instead of a prayer.

Milan is beating Juve. A loss today and Juve has an uphill climb to make the CL.
   397. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 09, 2021 at 04:32 PM (#6017936)
Crazy scene late in the RealMadrid/Sevilla game. Tied 1-1. Arm outstretched on the Sevilla corner looked like a pen but play continued, leading to a 3 on 0 at the other end, and a clear pen by the goalie on Benzema.

There's a penalty one way or the other. Went to VAR and given to Sevilla. The break was waved off--it never happened. Rakitic slots it home and RealMadrid is in trouble again.
   398. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 09, 2021 at 04:56 PM (#6017941)
PSG gave up a 70th minute equalizer in a near must win game for the title. In the 88th minute, sure enough, another horror tackle borne of frustration, for a red. This time to Kimpembe. Bit of a pattern here.
   399. The_Ex Posted: May 09, 2021 at 07:43 PM (#6017957)
Dortmund have been playing well recently. How much credit goes to Edin Terzic? If Dortmund hadn't hired Rose, would Terzic have been kept as manager.

Since Rose was announced, his fortunes have dropped while Terzic's have risen.

What will Terzic do? Lots of extra pressure on Rose now.
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