Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Friday, April 02, 2021

OT - Soccer Thread - Spring is in the Air

NWSL kicks of on April 9, we learn who the last UWCL semi-finalist is on April 18, we watch as Chelsea and Man City duke it out for the FA WSL title, and follow some minor stories like the Premier League run-in and the Fella’s Champions League last 8. Springtime COVID ball! Please don’t catch a fever!

The Marksist Posted: April 02, 2021 at 11:20 AM | 643 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: off topic, soccer

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

Page 5 of 7 pages ‹ First  < 3 4 5 6 7 > 
   401. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 11, 2021 at 01:13 PM (#6018275)
This United team looks absolutely terrible. Leicester running right around, through, and over them. Could end up 0-5.

edit: well so much for that Greenwood with a great goal. New estimate: 1-5. The teen wingback from Leivester guilty on that one after putting in an even better goal for Leicester's opener.
   402. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 11, 2021 at 01:34 PM (#6018280)
This game has totally changed. No chances either way, really, since the goals, but United, despite being error prone, is able to retain possession pretty well now, and has now mostly shut down Leicester's attack. Maybe it was opening jitters since these players never play, normally.
   403. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 11, 2021 at 01:55 PM (#6018286)
Until the 43rd minute, each side only had one shot, and one goal.
   404. jmurph Posted: May 11, 2021 at 02:53 PM (#6018305)
Well, not quite Agueroooooo but I'll take it.
   405. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 11, 2021 at 02:54 PM (#6018306)
Leicester was much better in the second half, and late subs by United evened it out again but it was too late. The 1-2 victory is half a gift to Leicester and seriously cripples Liverpool's chances. It will be interesting to see who United fields on Thursday. Liverpool will need to win that one to have more than a very slim chance to make the CL.

edit: also Leicester's win pretty much nails the door shut for West Ham, Tottenham, and Everton.
   406. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 11, 2021 at 06:02 PM (#6018355)
And.... Barca dropped points, yet again, this time to Levante. That's 3 games out of 4, and basically the end of their title hopes.
   407. jmurph Posted: May 12, 2021 at 07:55 AM (#6018496)
In soccer on TV in the US news, Serie A to Paramount+/CBS, La Liga to ESPN. Both beginning with the 21-22 season.

I'm not generally a La Liga viewer, but it will be good to have it widely available here again. ESPN+ has made getting into Serie A really easy; I haven't loved Paramount+ so far but hopefully they make it similarly easy (they also have the Argentina and Brazilian top men's leagues, if I'm not mistaken).

   408. bunyon Posted: May 12, 2021 at 08:31 AM (#6018501)
Damn. I completely forgot the Leicester/MU game was on yesterday.

So, serious question: Is there any advantage to finishing 2, rather than 3 or 4? (Or 3 rather than 4). Finishing 1 gets you the title. Finishing top four gets you CL. But does your CL seeding depend on where you finish? Or is 4 as good as 2?
   409. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 12, 2021 at 10:00 AM (#6018511)
No effect on CL (for the EPL) and no real advantage. Bragging rights, and for Manchester United what amounts to a tiny bit more money.

For a much smaller team position in the standings could be a little bit more important.

I wouldn't shed a tear here for Manchester United--they will still finish second barring something crazy. It's Liverpool and the other chasing teams that got screwed (but mostly just Liverpool, since the others had little chance anyway).

Depending on the league's UEFA ranking, position in the standings can have an effect on whether you qualify directly or through qualifiers. For example, the third team in Liqgue 1 doesn't go straight to the group stage. Also, until this year at least 7th in the EPL (or whatever the last spot was for Europa that year, after FA and EFL cup results) went into the Europa qualifying rounds.

It's been a number of years now since 4 teams from the EPL didn't go straight into the group stage. That change was made a few years ago when the biggest teams in the world flexed and UEFA had to give in a little more yet again. A recurring theme.
   410. bunyon Posted: May 12, 2021 at 10:17 AM (#6018512)
Thanks
   411. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: May 12, 2021 at 10:24 AM (#6018513)
No effect on CL (for the EPL) and no real advantage.


Doesn't the finishing position in the league impact what pot you are in for the group stages?
   412. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 12, 2021 at 11:08 AM (#6018524)

Doesn't the finishing position in the league impact what pot you are in for the group stages?
I don't think so? I thought it was based mostly on club coefficient rankings, which in turn are based on performance only in Europe.


Pot 1 consists of the holders, the UEFA Europa League winners and the champions of the six highest-ranked nations who did not qualify via one of the 2019/20 UEFA titles. Pots 2 to 4 are determined by the club coefficient rankings.
   413. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 12, 2021 at 11:35 AM (#6018536)
Here's the current ranking:

Wikipedia is keeping track of which pot teams will be in for next year already. For some reason they are missing Chelsea, who I think are guaranteed pot 2 now based on their ranking, and would be pot 1 if they win the CL. (edit: I think they are not included since they haven't clinched a spot yet.) Liverpool is pot 2 or bust. Leicester seems likely to be pot 3, but I guess they could even be pot 4.
   414. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 12, 2021 at 12:06 PM (#6018544)
This will also likely be the last year we will have a Russian team as pot 1 (finally!), and we won't even have one this year if Chelsea wins the CL. Russia has done so poorly in recent years they will drop to 8th in the country rankings after his year, with Portugal 6th and Netherlands back up to 7th after some good years. That means unless next year's Europa and Champions League winners also both win their domestic leagues next year, Russia will not get a pot 1 spot in the CL 2 years from now. We are likely to see Ajax with a pot 1 slot, who could join Porto as the team that most benefits under the current system.

(Do pots really mean much more anyway, now that they have this Swiss model? Probably not. So this whole thing is moot starting in 2024-2025.)
   415. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 12, 2021 at 04:07 PM (#6018602)
Arsenal is "getting the job done" according to the announcers. I guess that's true on the scoreboard, but it's not true in any other sense. They were gifted a goal, and gifted a miss by Havertz, and Chelsea has had 6 more shots from close range (most blocked) since Arsenal took the lead. And Arsenal's done noting at all on the offensive end, partly because they are playing 11 behind the ball 90% of the time.

There's basically no way the game can go on another 45 minutes like this without Chelsea scoring at least once. Arsenal needs to be doing something different if they want to win, since they also won't score themselves playing this way.
   416. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 12, 2021 at 04:12 PM (#6018604)
Ref played the advantage on that backpass handled by Kepa, which turned out to be the right move since it resulted in a goal. I didn't even notice it at the time since Kepa was scrambling so hard and had no other choice (and it was an excellent save, considering).

   417. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 12, 2021 at 04:33 PM (#6018610)
Milan is crushing Torino 0-7. Both teams are in tight races at the top/bottom of the table. But, first tie-breaker is head to head, so it probably has no difference whether the game endes 0-1 or 0-7.
   418. Mefisto Posted: May 12, 2021 at 05:17 PM (#6018615)
My God but Arsenal are excruciating to watch. I really think Arteta should have apprenticed under Pep instead of Jose.
   419. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 12, 2021 at 05:18 PM (#6018616)
We've had a ton of these in the EPL this year--away team gets outplayed by home team but wins anyway. Arsenal somehow held on to win 0-1 despite a late bombardment, which featured, among other things, the ball hitting the crossbar twice in rapid succession.

The result brings up a juicy one between Chelsea and Leicester next week, right after the FA cup final between the same two teams. It would be that much juicier if Liverpool can win their two games (against United and West Brom) beforehand. Even taking 4 points would be enough to keep it pretty interesting. Any less though and one or both teams would be quite happy with a draw, and that would take a lot of luster out of it.

Arsenal still has a small shot at Europe, the Europa Conference at least, with still a prayer at Europa.
   420. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 12, 2021 at 05:30 PM (#6018621)
If Liverpool wins out they will almost certainly be top 4. It wouldn't be easy, but if they can beat United they have a bunch of weak teams playing for nothing to round out the schedule. (West Brom and Palace are especially bad, the other being Burnley.)

Liverpool are slight favorites against United, but under 40% to win.
   421. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 13, 2021 at 10:41 AM (#6018681)
I, for one, am very excited that PSG have retained Neymar, as it means I can continue to unabashedly root against them. Now if only Mbappe would move somewhere else that would be ideal.

(One of the difficulties with rooting against City is that they don't have any notably hatable stars, in my opinion anyway.)
   422. Mefisto Posted: May 13, 2021 at 11:09 AM (#6018683)
Mbappe to United would be perfect, then. :)
   423. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 13, 2021 at 01:44 PM (#6018706)
Everton has played 34 games, 17 each home and away: 5-4-8 at home (-4 GD); 11-3-3 away (+8 GD). With this massive difference in results, the announcers today are praising their away performances, saying they just have to solve their home problems. No mention of covid, where there is scarcely any difference between the two this year (so it's not clear there even can be such a thing as a "home" problem), and no understanding of xG, which has Everton performing almost exactly as well at home as they did away.

Oh and there's this: Everton has 4 games left, two of them more or less cancel out (away to Villa and home to Wolves). The other two very much do not: (home to SheffieldUnited) and away to ManchesterCity. Not unlikely that Everton ends up with a better underlying performance at home this year. In other words, there is nothing to "solve", except that Everton is a mediocre team and has quite a long way to go to really challenge for Top 4 next year, or any year.
   424. jmurph Posted: May 13, 2021 at 03:44 PM (#6018732)
I'm half-watching on a laptop across the room but it looks to me like Liverpool have had two pretty decent penalty chances not given.
   425. Mefisto Posted: May 13, 2021 at 04:14 PM (#6018739)
One was awarded and then (correctly) overruled by VAR. Not sure which other one you have in mind.
   426. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 13, 2021 at 04:16 PM (#6018740)
Liverpool had almost no chances in the first 20+ minutes of the game, and gave up a goal and were lucky not to give up another after misplaying it out of the back. Things changed dramatically after that though, and almost all the chances, and all the good chances, have gone to Liverpool. 2 goals, and multiple other chances, including a penalty that was overturned on VAR (surprisingly, because it didn't seem clear/obvious not a pen, but on balance probably more not a pen than a pen).
   427. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 13, 2021 at 04:32 PM (#6018743)
Assuming Liverpool can hold on here, away teams will have a virtually unbeatable edge on home teams: 11 games with just 28 to go. There will have been 130 home wins, 141 away wins, and 81 draws. The next race is actual goals scored. As of this moment home teams have scored 468 v 467 for road teams. This one could still go down to the wire.
   428. The Marksist Posted: May 13, 2021 at 04:50 PM (#6018745)
Always amazing to me how many goals go juuuuuuust under someone's leg or whatever.
   429. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 13, 2021 at 05:06 PM (#6018746)
Not good positioning there by Henderson, but hard to blame him too much with Salah bearing down on him.

Announcers keep saying it is out of Liverpool's hands, but that's not true. If Liverpool wins out they will have 69 points, and at worst that would be enough for a tie for 4th place, at which point it would come down to GD with Leicester. Liverpool is currently +20 on GD (including today), and would have to be +23 or more if they win all their games. Leicester is +21 right now, but (under this scenario) would have a loss to Chelsea and a win against Tottenham. They would to beat Spurs by at least 3, and realistically at least 5 or more, maybe a lot more (considering Liverpool, if they win each game, is unlikely to win each game by just 1 goal, and Leicester, if they lose against Chelsea, might also lose by more than a goal).

Put it all together and Liverpool controls their own destiny. (If you want to be pedantic about it, and say Liverpool and Leicester each win their remaining games (except the loss to Chelsea) by infinity to nothing, the two teams would tie on points, goals scored and GD, and at that point I think they have to play each other to decide who gets 4th, so Liverpool would still control their own destiny.)
   430. Mefisto Posted: May 13, 2021 at 05:08 PM (#6018748)
Appalling second half by United.
   431. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 13, 2021 at 05:41 PM (#6018753)
I'm happy that Liverpool didn't end up getting screwed by the scheduling. This is a very tight race for top 4 right now. Liverpool trails but will likely move to the lead if they beat West Brom this weekend in the extra game.
Chelsea        71
Leicester      65
Liverpool      62
West Ham        2

United is a deserving top 4 team this year, but that's as far as it goes. City is awesome as usual. Chelsea has been pouring it on and has been much better than their numbers this year, and even better than that since Tuchel came in. For me they've been easily the second best team in the league this year. And Liverpool is still better than United at least by a little bit, and maybe by more than a little bit if they get all their players back. At this time I would slot United in as a clear 4th next year, with nobody behind them really with an argument that they are better either.

Of course, 4th in the EPL is still a top 10 team in the world.
   432. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 13, 2021 at 06:11 PM (#6018759)
Also, with this win the race is virtually guaranteed to go down to the last weekend. Liverpool just needs to win one of their next 2 games (about a 92% chance by betting odds), and even if they fail to win either one, West Ham or Tottenham, or even Everton, could sneak in with a chance, especially if Chelsea loses to Leicester.
   433. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 13, 2021 at 11:32 PM (#6018788)
Speaking of... just caught a glimpse of the EPL winner odds for next year:
ManCity       55.5
Chelsea       14.5
Liverpool     12.5
ManUnited     10.5
Leicester      2
Tottenham      2
Arsenal        1
Field          2

At those odds, I like Chelsea, Liverpool, and Arsenal. Maybe Spurs. I don't like City at those odds. United and Leicester seem about right.
   434. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: May 14, 2021 at 04:29 AM (#6018801)
Not a single mention of the DFB pokal? What kind of sorry excuse for football hipsters are you?
   435. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: May 14, 2021 at 08:23 AM (#6018808)
We are too hip to recognize the fraudulent RB Leipzig!
   436. jmurph Posted: May 14, 2021 at 03:09 PM (#6018854)
Scott Carson in goal for Manchester City! First Premier League appearance in just shy of 10 years.
   437. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 14, 2021 at 04:49 PM (#6018873)
City just had a spell of 3:35 of solid passing. Ended on a cross. Newcastle never really got close to the ball.

I saw parts of the DFB Pokal, but it was over by the half and I had nothing much to say about it except that Haaland was a beast, the games are so much wider open in the Bundesliga than the EPL (something to consider when comparing players across leagues), and that I was happy to see Leipzig lose. Hardly original thoughts so I refrained from posting.
   438. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 15, 2021 at 10:46 AM (#6018922)
Atalanta is about to clinch a CL spot with a game to spare. Juve has to beat Inter later today to have any hope.

Frankfurt is doing their best to get outplayed by Schalke, maybe the worst team the top 4 has seen in years. 30 minutes left to get the winner or they can give up on the CL. (edit: 3-2 now Schalke. edit2: and now 4-2)

Lewa has tied the Bundesliga record with 40 goals after an early penalty. about 2 hours of game time left to break it.

Leeds 0-4 victory over Burnley means that EPL teams have now scored a few more away goals than home goals this year. That's crazy. xG still remains higher at home. According to clubelo, England home field advantage right now is at its lowest point ever. Their figure includes the Championship, where, like most other leagues in Europe, home teams have continued to outperform away teams this year, albeit by a smaller amount than normal.
   439. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 15, 2021 at 11:31 AM (#6018925)
Schalke held on 4-3. Dortmund just needs two points in two games to make the CL, and that's virtually guaranteed. Wolfsburg already in, barring a massive GD reversal.

Europa spots are set too, with Frankfurt taking 5th spot (assuming Dortmund gets it done) and Leverkusen wrapping up 6th. Europa Conference is a wild one, with Union, Gladbach, Freiburg, and Stuttgart all within 2 points with just a game to go.

Relegation is also not decided. Arminia, Werder Bremen, and Koln are all within 2 points, and each could get the auto spot or the playoff spot. Making things more fun, Werder Bremen faces Gladbach, and Arminia faces Stutttgart.
   440. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 15, 2021 at 12:47 PM (#6018934)
Chelsea dominated most of the first 25 minutes, but got no good looks at goal that I remembered. 3 shots for each team to that point, none on target. The best two chances went to Leicester, one on a dangerous shot after a nice break that was blocked in the box, and the second on a free header by Soyuncu after a free kick that arose from another break.

Since then Chelsea has had a few chances though, but they really should be turning their dominance into a better edge in chances.
   441. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 15, 2021 at 01:18 PM (#6018939)
Juve up 2-1 but down to 10.
   442. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 15, 2021 at 01:50 PM (#6018942)
Juve down to 10 but up a goal take off Ronaldo. Give up a crucial own goal late, but get a pen even later. Cuadrado scores it. 3-2 Juve now.
   443. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: May 15, 2021 at 02:15 PM (#6018944)
That was a very entertaining game. Chelsea maybe a bit better but Leicester didn’t give them a lot in the way of chances. A genuinely spectacular goal by Thielemans and a couple of great saves by Schmeichel.

I don’t know how to fix VAR particularly on offsides. Technically correct but I don’t think the game is improved as a fan by having a call overturned by such a small margin. Similarly I don’t think Perez should have been called for handball on the goal but the inconsistency and more generally the confusion about whether it should be called is frustrating.

It seemed like Rodgers brought Morgan along specifically to deal with Giroud.
   444. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 15, 2021 at 02:43 PM (#6018946)
I thought the game was a bit dull myself, and it surely didn't feature many good chances. It did satisfy my most important criteria though--it was contested until the end.

MCoA had xG at 0.7-0.3 for Chelsea.
   445. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: May 15, 2021 at 04:10 PM (#6018948)
I think what I found entertaining was how tight it was. I suspect a non-final wouldn't have been as entertaining but with so much on the line it felt meaningful so every play was intriguing.
   446. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 15, 2021 at 04:28 PM (#6018949)
Yes, I'm definitely sympathetic to that. It's even better, as today, when the superior team is trailing.

Chelsea wouldn't lose many games playing like that, but they would probably draw a fair number even against inferior teams. A draw probably won't do it for them when they face Leicester again midweek, so we'll see if they try to open it up a bit.

In other news, with Roma about to win over Lazio, Lazio is locked in to Europa, and Roma is almost assured of Europa Conference.
   447. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 15, 2021 at 04:53 PM (#6018953)
Late drama, but With that draw, West Ham's CL hopes are all but over. They need almost every result to go their way now. Still in line for the last Europa spot, but Spurs and Everton have a shot at it as well. (Arsenal technically too, but not really.)
   448. Richard Posted: May 15, 2021 at 08:23 PM (#6018972)
That’s Leicester’s first FA Cup Final win after losing 4 finals in a row, which was the worst record of any team that has reached the final.

The worst record is now jointly held by 4 teams who have lost both finals they appeared in: Birmingham, Crystal Palace, Watford and Scottish side Queens Park, who regularly entered the Cup in its infancy.
   449. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: May 15, 2021 at 09:28 PM (#6018988)
According to the ESPN broadcast Jamie Vardy is the first player to play in all 14 rounds of the FA Cup.
   450. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 16, 2021 at 08:05 AM (#6019013)
After Juve's dramatic win yesterday, Napoli needs one as well. After a 0-0 struggle for a half, a questionable (at best) penalty given by VAR after not being caled on the field, and a deflected goal, and Napoli are sitting pretty. They just need to close this one out and beat Verona next week to be in the CL.

Milan can clinch a spot by beating Cagliari today. Cagliari could be motivated though--if Benevento can get a win today Cagliari will not yet be safe from relegation. Milan would prefer to get the win they need today, as next week they face Atalanta.
   451. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 16, 2021 at 08:23 AM (#6019014)
Probably not ideal for Spurs and Chelsea that Graelish is on his way back from injury. He might still play a role in Villa's last 2 games, even if it's just as a sub.
   452. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 16, 2021 at 11:02 AM (#6019023)
Benevento gave up a very late equalizer against 10-man Crotone. Disaster! Benevento's hopes for survival are now hanging by a prayer.

Could be a killer for Juve too, because that draw means Cagliari will survive, and their game against Milan this evening is now meaningless. A Milan win puts Juve on life support.
   453. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 16, 2021 at 11:54 AM (#6019026)
While Liverpool tries to do it the hard way, Spurs and Hammers are dead even for the last Europa spot. Spurs have the harder games but hold the GD tiebreaker. If Liverpool don't turn this one around, both team still have the outside shot at the CL.
   454. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 16, 2021 at 01:04 PM (#6019028)
Liverpool saved by that ridiculous rule again. Alisson had no chance to save it, but the player in the offside position was directly in line between Alisson and the ball, so no goal. We saw that earlier this year against some other team (I forget), and even if it's the rule it's a stupid one.
   455. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 16, 2021 at 01:30 PM (#6019030)
Alisson totally unmarked for the winner on a corner. Perfect header though, so full credit. Last kick of the game (basically).

Liverpool was a little sloppy but were the clearly better team, and was a little unlucky not to already be ahead. Alisson made a couple big saves on the other end as well, though, so they could have lost as well.

Pressure is full on Leicester and Chelsea now.
   456. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 16, 2021 at 01:55 PM (#6019031)
Dortmund clinches a CL spot! Congrats. They are clearly better than Eintracht, but without the latter team's late collapse (1 win out of their last 5 games) Dortmund might have been left high and dry.
   457. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 16, 2021 at 01:59 PM (#6019032)
Atleti, RealMadrid, and Barcelona are currently winning the aggregate xG battle in their games by about 5.0 - 0.3. All games are still draws, so I guess anything could still happen.

edit: RealMadrid scored. If these results hold up, RealMadrid will be back on track to win La Liga. Atleti has totally dominated thier game but hasn't scored.

edit2: unbelievable. Osasuna takes the lead against Atleti. If Barcelona can get another goal too they will still be alive in the race.
   458. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 16, 2021 at 02:22 PM (#6019035)
2 goals for Atleti in the last 10 minutes. Barcelona goes down to 10 and then goes down a goal. Eliminated.

One more win and Atletic takes La Liga!
   459. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 16, 2021 at 03:02 PM (#6019042)
The women's champions league final appears to be free on the Chelsea website.

Barcelona is pretty big favorites coming in. And now they are already up 1-0. Announcers calling it a "freak goal", and that is quite a legitimate description. Barca did hit the crossbar right before that though.
   460. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 16, 2021 at 03:16 PM (#6019044)
And now a questionable penalty given to Barca. 2-0.

and now 3-0. Chelsea looked good at times, and this surely is a rough scoreline. They also look like the inferior team though, so coming back from this looks like an impossibility.
   461. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 16, 2021 at 03:36 PM (#6019045)
PSG, Lyon, and Monaco all up by 2 goals already. PSG is also up a man, so they will almost certainly hold on.

Lille still drawing 0-0. They absolutely need at the very least a draw.
   462. Baldrick Posted: May 16, 2021 at 03:41 PM (#6019047)
I will try to be diplomatic and just say that Chelsea's starting XI (even given their awful fullbacks) is better than Barca's in terms of pure talent.
   463. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 16, 2021 at 03:54 PM (#6019049)
This was the last game in the EPL this year without fans, I think. Fittingly won by the away team. Despite the final 20 games being played in front of fans, away teams will win more often than home teams this year. Goals scored are currently virtually even home/away, with away teams currently leading by a single goal.

Everton is now unlikely to be in Europa next year, and the Europa Conference might also be out of reach.
   464. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 16, 2021 at 04:57 PM (#6019053)
Both Milan and Lille dominated but failed to score. It's very much on for the CL in Serie A, and for the Ligue 1 title. A win still does it for Lille, but any slip-up very likely gives it to PSG, who is heavily favored to win their game against Brest (though Brest are also still fighting to avoid the relegation playoff).

Juve needs a win against Bologa, which they are likely to get, and then to have one of Milan or Napoli slip up. The fun part there is that Milan play Atalanta.
   465. jmurph Posted: May 17, 2021 at 10:26 AM (#6019098)
I don't care much for Atletico Madrid, but it would still be a bummer if Real Madrid pull it out next weekend. Same with PSG in France.
   466. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: May 17, 2021 at 10:56 AM (#6019101)
Benevento gave up a very late equalizer against 10-man Crotone. Disaster! Benevento's hopes for survival are now hanging by a prayer.


Benevento still have a realistic shot. If Torino lose to Lazio mid-week then Torino-Benevento is the game of the weekend next week. Winner survives (Torino stay up with a draw).

I thought the game was a bit dull myself, and it surely didn't feature many good chances. It did satisfy my most important criteria though--it was contested until the end.


Jonathan Wilson on Football Weekly podcast called it a "good final but not necessarily a good match." That's a pretty fair description.
   467. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 17, 2021 at 01:43 PM (#6019123)
Breakdown of Liverpool's top 4 chances based on the result of the Chelsea/Leicester game. The problem is GIGO (garbage in, garbage out).

Betting odds currently have Liverpool as about 76% to make the CL. the odds breakdown above has them at around 56%. That's a massive difference, making the whole table worthless. Liverpool would be best served by a Chelsea loss, that's true, but not as much as the table suggests. The main garbage reasons seem to be: 1) Liverpool is better than indicated by the numbers shown in the table, so the result of the Chelsea/Leicester game in general is less important to Liverpool than indicated. If Liverpool wins their last two games, they are in (barring some crazy GD results); and 2) Chelsea is much better than Leicester than the table is showing, and thus are much more likely to win their final game than Leicester is. This one is easy to show: betting odds have Chelsea as 56.5% to win against Leicester, where these odds show just 47%, That's a massive, massive difference. Incidentally, even pure ELO (which overrates Leicester this year and underrates Chelsea, and in combination massively underrates the difference), has Chelsea as 49% to win assuming almost no home field advantage. All of this shows the model being used by the table is complete crap.

While not a perfect model by any means, with just a couple games left 538 does a much better job of approximating betting odds. 538 has Liverpool at 75% to make the CL currently, and has Chelsea at 57% to win tomorrow. Both are virtually identical to betting odds.

Long story short is Liverpool's odds will drop slightly if Chelsea wins, maybe down to slightly below 70%. They won't be anywhere near 50% though.
   468. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 18, 2021 at 03:14 PM (#6019425)
In the big EPL game of the day, neither fans nor an early red could stop the City record breaking covid-fueled away win streak in all competitions. ok it's not over just yet. 1-2 now.

United gets their shot at covid-fueled away glory this weekend, where avoiding a loss makes theme the second team after the invincibles to go umdefeated over a season away, and brings them within a game or two of the all-time league streak (by the same invincibles, naturally).
   469. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 18, 2021 at 03:56 PM (#6019432)
2 goals called back for Chelsea already, both Werner and both plays he arguably could have done better on.

City's streak is over! Brighton come from 2 down to win 3-2.
   470. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 18, 2021 at 04:39 PM (#6019442)
This game could very easily be 3-0. Chelsea right now is so much better than Leicester. edit: make that could easily be 4-0.
   471. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 18, 2021 at 04:43 PM (#6019443)
Benevento giving up that 93rd minute goal while up a man may have resulted in their relegation. oops.
   472. spivey 2 Posted: May 18, 2021 at 04:45 PM (#6019444)
Chelsea is winning xG like 2.7-0.2 despite a couple of disallowed goals (both rightly) and the ref missing a stonewall penalty on Werner by Tielemans. This could have been one of those complete 6-0 type batterings.
   473. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 18, 2021 at 04:51 PM (#6019446)
whoops! Game still on.
   474. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 18, 2021 at 05:05 PM (#6019453)
Chelsea almost blew it there. I didn't see that coming.
   475. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 18, 2021 at 05:12 PM (#6019457)
After the game today, 538 will have Brigton as the 6th best team in the EPL, with xPoints having them back in 5th, ahead of Leicester. Chelsea's 538 ranking will have crept very close to City's.

Part of this is end of the season games that don't really matter, of course. Still notable.
   476. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 18, 2021 at 05:33 PM (#6019463)
538 has Liverpool's odds dropping only very slightly, to 73%. Betting odds has the drop as even less, to around 74%.
   477. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 18, 2021 at 11:28 PM (#6019558)
Chelsea is the biggest favorite to make it now, with Liverpool not that far behind. Leicester is under 40%.

A win tomorrow by Liverpool is only very slightly negative for Chelsea. It would cut Leicester's chances a lot though. Obviously, a draw or loss by Liverpool would be really advantageous for the other two teams, but those results are much less likely.
   478. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: May 18, 2021 at 11:41 PM (#6019561)
River Plate will be forced to play Wednesday’s Copa Libertadores tie with no recognised goalkeepers after a Covid-19 outbreak in the squad. Twenty River players have tested positive for Covid-19 in recent days, including all their eligible goalkeepers.

The team’s manager, Marcelo Gallardo, will therefore only have 10 fit players for the match against Independiente Santa Fe of Colombia. Santa Fe have their own problems, having record five positive cases of Covid-19 in recent days.

On Tuesday, the club said 5ft 10in midfielder Enzo Pérez will step in as emergency goalkeeper. Pérez had been ruled out with a hamstring injury, but the club deemed him fit enough to play in goal given the dire circumstances. Only six of the team’s remaining available players have started a top-flight match for the club.


Link

Why can't they just postpone it ... it's a farce of an honest match at this point.
   479. The Marksist Posted: May 19, 2021 at 09:32 AM (#6019592)
I'm excited to stress not only about whether Liverpool can beat f***ing Burnley but whether they can do so by multiple goals to pad goal difference. Love to have anxiety sweats during two hour work meetings!
   480. spivey 2 Posted: May 19, 2021 at 10:03 AM (#6019599)
Tons of Kane rumors coming out, in particular to City.

If City are really keen, and are willing to pay a fair price (I'd say fair is 100-125mil pounds), I think we should sell him. It's the big team I'd be least upset about, because it's the clearest path to trophies and they're not a rival (like Chelsea). Kane's put in a great career at Tottenham, and the team needs a rebuild. He's also at his absolute peak in value now. He's been hurt off and on the last few years. There's a real possibility waiting a year could lead to a drastic reduction in price, similar to the Eriksen situation. I also think that generally keeping a player against their will doesn't turn out well, and Tottenham realistically are not likely to compete at the top level during the rest of Kane's prime.

Tottenham need a couple defenders, another midfielder with steel (maybe this is just Skipp?), and need to get younger and more pressing in their front line. I doubt he'd be cheap, but I think a forward like Bamford would be really nice. Ings could probably be had relatively cheap, too, and is top 6 quality, though a short term solution.

Getting Gabriel Jesus would be amazing if he was a makeweight. He and Son I think could be very good at interchanging positions. Tottenham let their core age out. Getting someone like him that's world class at everything but goal scoring would be great.
   481. Mefisto Posted: May 19, 2021 at 10:21 AM (#6019607)
I can't imagine why City would have any interest in Kane. United? Sure, they have an obvious need for somebody who can play up top. Barca? Possibly. But I doubt the market anywhere would support a price above 100 million (or even 75 million).
   482. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 19, 2021 at 10:52 AM (#6019613)
I'm excited to stress not only about whether Liverpool can beat f***ing Burnley but whether they can do so by multiple goals to pad goal difference. Love to have anxiety sweats during two hour work meetings!
I wouldn't worry about the GD side of this. In order for Liverpool to lose via GD, the only remotely plausible scenario is that all of Chelsea, Leicester, and Liverpool win their remaining games, and that Leicester beats Spurs by at least 3. The chances of GD mattering and going against Liverpool is exceedingly small.

Losing Kane would very likely hurt Spurs on the field in the short run, but if I were a buy and hold Spurs fan, I'd be thrilled if City took him at a high price. Spurs aren't really in competition with City at least for the next couple years or so, while Kane is likely to still be in near top form.

Yeah you get personally attached to players, and Kane seems like a decent bloke, but fans are in this for life.
   483. spivey 2 Posted: May 19, 2021 at 10:53 AM (#6019615)
Kane doesn't feel like a City like addition, but that's mostly from a recruitment point of view.

Kane is better than Aguero, and neither are super athletic, and Aguero's ability to bang in goals has been huge for them. Kane can even get involved in build up and play in their wingers to a level that Aguero can't. Right now they have no true goal scorer. They won the league and are in the CL final, so you could argue they don't need it. But I get the sense that Pep doesn't love not having a true finisher. Aguero seemed to always start big matches when fit over the last few years, even while the other attackers rotated.

Haaland is a "more City-like" purchase, but if Dortmund make the CL which looks likely at this point I don't think they'll let him go until next year, and I expect between wages, Raiola, and the clause the bidding could be insane.

The main thing that I think could lead to City doing it is Pep saying/thinking - look, I'll be here a few more years. Kane would likely be world class for most or all of those, and if we get him, the league's just about ours every one of them.
   484. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 19, 2021 at 11:08 AM (#6019623)
Dortmund make the CL which looks likely at this poin
Dortmund already made the CL.
   485. jmurph Posted: May 19, 2021 at 11:30 AM (#6019628)
I'd be pretty stunned if City were willing to spend what it seems like it would take to get Kane. Their current biggest fee paid ranks as the 24th biggest ever (by wiki's accounting). Now they have a loooooot of expensive players, I'm in no way denying that. But roughly double their previous high? For a guy who will be 28 (not old! but not like early prime, either) and has had leg injuries doesn't make a lot of sense to me.
   486. jmurph Posted: May 19, 2021 at 11:35 AM (#6019630)
The main thing that I think could lead to City doing it is Pep saying/thinking - look, I'll be here a few more years. Kane would likely be world class for most or all of those, and if we get him, the league's just about ours every one of them.

I do think this is reasonable thinking. If we're talking like 75-80 I guess I could see it? But it just seems like Spurs will think they can get more than that (and maybe United will do it, I don't know).
   487. The Marksist Posted: May 19, 2021 at 01:56 PM (#6019663)
I wouldn't worry about the GD side of this.


I mean, I wouldn't either if my rational brain had anything to do with it.
   488. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 19, 2021 at 02:59 PM (#6019695)
Fans are back at Tottenham Stadium for the first time in months.

Spurs booed off the field at the final whistle. (Maybe better than some of the United fans, who couldn't stomach the 1-1 draw, so left 15 minutes early. Can't even blame traffic or whatever, since only 5000 fans were there in the first place.)
   489. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 19, 2021 at 04:19 PM (#6019714)
It's a bit of a logjam right now for the 6th through 9th spots. West Ham could wrap up at least 7th (and a spot in Europe) if they get another goal in the second half.
   490. The Marksist Posted: May 19, 2021 at 04:33 PM (#6019720)
Spurs booed off the field at the final whistle.


Ryan Mason, he's one of [their] own?
   491. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 19, 2021 at 05:02 PM (#6019729)
West Ham gets the late goal, and another one! If they can achieve at least a draw this weekend, they are guaranteed Europa. Already have Europa Conference (barring wacky GD results this weekend). Tottenham needs a win now combined with a loss by West Ham. Unlikely but not impossible.

Arsenal or Everton can still take the Europa Conference spot, which is currently held by Spurs.

Liverpool won, as I'm sure everyone knows. A win this week end and they are in. A draw or loss and they need some help, but could still be in. Chelsea also in with a win. Leicester is out if they lose to Spurs.

Liverpool and Chelsea will be in then 85%-90% range. Leicester in the 20%-30% range.
   492. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 19, 2021 at 05:03 PM (#6019730)
Juventus and PSG won their respective cups. So that's bad. Happy I didn't have time to watch.
   493. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 19, 2021 at 05:11 PM (#6019734)
Away teams now are more than 10 games up on home teams, in the EPL, so will finish over .500. With the results today, it also now looks very likely that more goals will be scored away than at home this year too. I think away goals are up by 7 or so.
   494. The_Ex Posted: May 19, 2021 at 08:01 PM (#6019774)
City should sign Messi on a one year deal, which might be wishful thinking. Then sign Haaland in 2022.

If City win the Champions League will Pep stay for more than one year?
   495. jmurph Posted: May 19, 2021 at 11:16 PM (#6019845)
Pep is signed for two more seasons, but who knows. But despite the constant talk, it is worth noting that he and Klopp have both now stayed for longer than everyone predicted of either guy.

If you confine the terms to the richest 10 or 12 teams in the world, which I think accurately reflects the reality for these guys, I think it's very difficult to find better jobs than Manchester City and Liverpool at the moment- stability, support, talent, etc. (I realize that City obviously are able to spend a lot more than Liverpool). Bayern is I guess the other good option for this kind of list? The big Italian clubs are a mess, comparatively speaking, financially and/or otherwise. Madrid and Barcelona are soap operas. PSG clearly has its appeals to some, so maybe that is close to the other 3, I just wonder about the league issue. Manchester United clearly should be on this list, and maybe they are again, but the transfer situation just always seems questionable.

Just thinking out loud I guess, but my point is that while I can imagine Pep stepping aside just to take a break, it's hard to find a move that really makes sense. Maybe some unfinished business pulls him back to Bayern in a couple years? I've always assumed he ends up back at Barcelona at some point, but I don't follow the relationship stuff there so I have no idea who his allies are.
   496. spivey 2 Posted: May 20, 2021 at 08:56 AM (#6019898)
Yeah, Pep has mentioned wanting to stay at City, he's happy there. I'm not sure what's next. The team he's built at City is very young across almost all of their best players (besides KDB).

The only Serie A team I could see him going to is Juve, who needs a massive squad overhaul and probably doesn't seem very appealing right now.

I believe he's said he doesn't want to go back to Barca, at least to be the first team manager, though I'm sure that can change when he's out of a job. And I'm not sure he'd find the same success as a NT manager for, say, Spain. And I think he's said some stuff about Catalan independence that may make it politically untenable to be the Spain NT manager anyways. I think he's talked about going back to manage Barcelona's youth/B teams. But I feel like he's still got time at the top level (most obvious statement ever, I guess).
   497. Textbook Editor Posted: May 20, 2021 at 01:03 PM (#6019953)
If City are really keen, and are willing to pay a fair price (I'd say fair is 100-125mil pounds), I think we should sell him. It's the big team I'd be least upset about, because it's the clearest path to trophies and they're not a rival (like Chelsea). Kane's put in a great career at Tottenham, and the team needs a rebuild. He's also at his absolute peak in value now. He's been hurt off and on the last few years. There's a real possibility waiting a year could lead to a drastic reduction in price, similar to the Eriksen situation. I also think that generally keeping a player against their will doesn't turn out well, and Tottenham realistically are not likely to compete at the top level during the rest of Kane's prime.


TE, Jr. is kind of bummed Kane might go, but I think the above is pretty much my feeling on this. The thing is, Kane is about to embark on an insane run of games:

2020-2021 Season
2021 Euros (Summer 2021)
2021-2022 Season
2022-2023 Start to Season
2022 World Cup (December 2022)
2022-2023 Season End

His only break between now at Summer 2023 will be whatever time he may have off in Summer 2022. Add in that he'll never have any international break off, wants to play every game even when hurt, etc. and Kane could well be a shell of himself come Summer 2023 and have 0 value. Heck, he could be a shell of himself by next summer. If you are going to sell him, I think it's right that this summer is the time to do it.

Will Spurs spend the proceeds wisely? Eh, I rather doubt it. I'm expecting some years in the wilderness--and even more than that if the managerial hire goes badly. But this happens. And will happen again, I'm sure. What's sad to me is the ~60 seconds between kickoff and the Sissoko penalty in the CL Final in 2019 may well be the high water mark for Spurs fandom for 20 years. The high water mark lasted ~60 seconds. Sigh.

On the plus side, Torquay United is at least in the playoffs for promotion to League Two, and with some help could potentially sneak into automatic promotion (though this seems unlikely). Go Gulls!




   498. jmurph Posted: May 21, 2021 at 03:43 PM (#6020112)
Huh, Aguero to Barcelona on a two year deal. Is this a keep Messi happy kind of move?
   499. Textbook Editor Posted: May 22, 2021 at 12:35 AM (#6020207)
It's probably just me but the full Kane interview was quite depressing as a Spurs fan. He's basically mentally already at another club and frankly I now doubt Levy will be able to get even 75% of his valuation this summer. On the one hand it'll be sad to see him go. On the other hand, the tone and nature of his remarks almost makes me wonder if he wasn't a bit of a cancer in the dressing room under Mourinho--in the sense he was "Team Mou" way, way past when anyone else was... and I wonder if other players resented that (i.e., that Mou was basically kept months past when he should have been fired because Kane was on his side and that matters to Levy).

It also think--and I think this needs to be said--it is true that at the most crucial moment of his career, the CL final in 2019, he (in my opinion) put himself before the team by declaring he was fit to play when he clearly, clearly was not, hamstringing Poch for the most significant Spurs game in 50 years. I realize his bull-headedness likely got him to where he is today, but at that crucial moment, he thought of Harry Kane instead of Spurs. The whole drama around "will he start? will he be a super sub?" at that CL final--in hindsight--sure seems like the first signs of a process that leads us to where everything is today.

I do think in 2 years Kane will be a shell of himself via overwork and injuries, and I do think while he may win trophies elsewhere, it won't be as a big fish in a small pond, but as a smaller fish in a bigger, richer pond. Hey, more power to him. Hopefully Levy will spend the $ well. With any luck there'll be a Ewing Effect and Spurs will wind up winning a trophy next year while Kane finds out he's not playing every minute under Pep lol.
   500. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 22, 2021 at 09:27 AM (#6020221)
I do think in 2 years Kane will be a shell of himself via overwork and injuries,
This seems extremely likely to me as well.

In happier news, Brentford is now 1 game away from the EPL, after coming from behind in the tie. A DOGSO ended up killing Bornemouth, as it came too early in the game, giving Brentford enough time to get the 2 goals they needed.

I'm hoping to see Brentford in the EPL, as they are a bit overdue and maybe could make a splash. Bournemouth, along with Fulham, seems likely to be one of the favorites to go up next year. Not sure who else is looking strong. Brentford too obviously if they fail to win the last game.
Page 5 of 7 pages ‹ First  < 3 4 5 6 7 > 

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Dynasty League Baseball

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
.
for his generous support.

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogSinclair raising $250M for new sports streaming service, sources say
(6 - 3:30am, Jun 14)
Last: bookbook

NewsblogYankees are a broken team, so why is Brian Cashman doing nothing?
(7 - 3:17am, Jun 14)
Last: Ben Broussard Ramjet

NewsblogOMNICHATTER! for the weekend of June 12-13, 2021
(30 - 2:09am, Jun 14)
Last: Brian C

NewsblogFormer All-Star pitcher Jim 'Mudcat' Grant, who spent 14 seasons in the majors, dies at 85
(29 - 1:12am, Jun 14)
Last: SoSH U at work

NewsblogNBA 2021 Playoffs+ thread
(1216 - 11:23pm, Jun 13)
Last: tshipman

NewsblogOT Soccer Thread - In Which Euro 2020 Is Played in 2021
(110 - 7:40pm, Jun 13)
Last: AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale

NewsblogPhillies president Dave Dombrowski considers the late Darren Daulton one of his all-time great deadline deals
(9 - 6:46pm, Jun 13)
Last: Shohei Brotani (formerly LA Hombre)

NewsblogWhy have the Dodgers been so slow to honor Glenn Burke, MLB’s first openly gay player?
(10 - 1:21pm, Jun 13)
Last: Tom Goes to the Ballpark

NewsblogTo the window, to the wall, to OMNICHATTER!, for June 11, 2021
(30 - 1:08pm, Jun 13)
Last: sunday silence (again)

NewsblogMets' Jacob deGrom leaves start with elbow issue, says 'level of concern not too high'
(11 - 11:10am, Jun 13)
Last: pikepredator

NewsblogNew York Mets' Pete Alonso posits that MLB 'manipulates the baseball' based on free-agent class
(34 - 12:32am, Jun 13)
Last: Golfing Great Mitch Cumstein

Sox TherapyGetting There
(14 - 9:10pm, Jun 12)
Last: Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer

Newsblog'Sorry you had to see that' -- How baserunning has become an embarrassing problem in Major League Baseball
(75 - 3:53pm, Jun 12)
Last: BDC

Sox TherapyFeeling a Draft
(10 - 11:20am, Jun 12)
Last: Bad Fish

NewsblogStruggling Diamondbacks 'part ways' with hitting coaches Darnell Coles, Eric Hinske
(12 - 9:48am, Jun 12)
Last: Jack Sommers

Page rendered in 0.6696 seconds
48 querie(s) executed