Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Wednesday, March 10, 2021

Texas Rangers to allow full capacity on opening day

The Texas Rangers will be the first major professional team in North America to allow 100 percent capacity at a game when they play their home opener April 5 against the Toronto Blue Jays.

In a statement, the Rangers cited Gov. Greg Abbott’s executive order permitting the state’s businesses to open fully in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Globe Life Field, which seats 40,518 fans, opened last season, but has never been allowed to have fans for a Rangers game. Major League Baseball allowed about 11,500 fans into the stadium for National League Championship Series and World Series games played at the ballpark last postseason.

The Rangers’ Globe Life Field can hold 40,518 fans.

 

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: March 10, 2021 at 02:40 PM | 73 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: coronavirus, rangers

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: March 10, 2021 at 02:50 PM (#6008126)
Which then begs the question, "Do 40,518 people actually want to watch this 110-loss team in action?" even on Opening Day, even in air conditioning, even in their Billion Dollar Barn?
   2. puck Posted: March 10, 2021 at 03:20 PM (#6008129)
For the home opener? Why not? Opening day is more of a celebration of baseball returning.
   3. The Yankee Clapper Posted: March 10, 2021 at 03:31 PM (#6008132)
Putting the air conditioning to a severe test right at the start of the season? Might need to pace themselves to make it through August.
   4. The Duke Posted: March 10, 2021 at 04:29 PM (#6008142)
About 96 million people have been vaccinated already. There is a new estimate that about 40 million people have been exposed. There are 2-4 million people a day getting shots. So in a month when the games start we’ll have close to 200 million people either having had it or gotten the vaccine. The remainder are young people who don’t really get sick or die. By July 4, this is all but over unless a new lethal variant which doesn’t lose its lethality due to vaccine arrives.
   5. Adam Starblind Posted: March 10, 2021 at 06:17 PM (#6008152)
. About 96 million people have been vaccinated already. There is a new estimate that about 40 million people have been exposed. There are 2-4 million people a day getting shots. So in a month when the games start we’ll have close to 200 million people either having had it or gotten the vaccine. The remainder are young people who don’t really get sick or die. By July 4, this is all but over unless a new lethal variant which doesn’t lose its lethality due to vaccine arrives.



A large April 5 get together makes sense then.
   6. The Yankee Clapper Posted: March 10, 2021 at 06:27 PM (#6008154)
About 96 million people have been vaccinated already.
I’m seeing 62.5M as the current count of those who have received one or both vaccine doses. However, the basic point remains valid, with vaccine production rapidly ramping up, many more will be vaccinated by the start of the season. Current cases are now only ~ 25% of the January peak, and falling. With a little luck, MLB could be pretty ‘normal’ after Memorial Day.
   7. Mayor Blomberg Posted: March 10, 2021 at 06:45 PM (#6008157)
About 96 million people

I take it thatt's made up of the 62.5 million who have received at least one does, plus the people had two doses counted a second time, plus a little boost to get a nice round number like 92?

this is all but over

It's over It's always been over. --RDP
   8. Tom Goes to the Ballpark Posted: March 10, 2021 at 06:48 PM (#6008158)
Yeah, The Duke’s numbers are wrong/made up. Memorial Day does seem like a solid guess for when most ballparks are full open though. In theory, we should be able to hit 4M doses per day for a good chunk of April.
   9. cardsfanboy Posted: March 10, 2021 at 07:20 PM (#6008161)
As someone with a relatively healthy body I'm pretty sure this is going to be a disaster. (and has been exposed multiple times and have been lucky so far... or got it and didn't realize it even with three tests saying I didn't have it)
   10. JRVJ Posted: March 10, 2021 at 09:07 PM (#6008174)
This seem like a dangerous decision, but hey, I'm super cautious in re: the pandemic (e.g., I've long espoused that MLBPA's position of not pushing back the start of the season was dangerous to its membership).
   11. Tom Goes to the Ballpark Posted: March 10, 2021 at 09:22 PM (#6008178)
The full capacity is only for opening day. The article says that after opening day in person attendance will be more limited and distanced. The article doesn’t mention whether or not the roof will be open.

Still, April 1 is a couple months too soon for a full capacity crowd.
   12. The Duke Posted: March 10, 2021 at 10:50 PM (#6008188)
8. These aren’t my numbers. The Covid tracking project has tons of data. The number vaccinated was 78 million about 10 days ago and J & J has not been ramped up yet. Yes the number does not break down one shot/two shot but one shot is very effective. In most states the 50-65 demo is about to start. Under 50 and the death rate is miniscule so people may still get it but it’s more like a cold or flu for them.

The scare stories about the UK or South African or Brazil variant are just that. Once vaccinated you won’t die (but you may still get it).
   13. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: March 10, 2021 at 11:00 PM (#6008189)

The full capacity is only for opening day. The article says that after opening day in person attendance will be more limited and distanced


Fortunately, April 1 is a vacation day for COVID-19.
   14. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: March 10, 2021 at 11:07 PM (#6008191)
I mean, if any day would be...
   15. Tom Goes to the Ballpark Posted: March 10, 2021 at 11:34 PM (#6008193)
These aren’t my numbers. The Covid tracking project has tons of data. The number vaccinated was 78 million about 10 days ago and J & J has not been ramped up yet. Yes the number does not break down one shot/two shot but one shot is very effective. In most states the 50-65 demo is about to start. Under 50 and the death rate is miniscule so people may still get it but it’s more like a cold or flu for them.
The US has vaccinated about 63M people with at least one dose. About half of those people have received two doses. Perhaps you have conflated the total number of doses administered with the number of people vaccinated?

The COVID Tracking project stopped collecting and publishing data since they felt that the CDC data is now sufficient. I’d recommend using that going forward.
   16. Baldrick Posted: March 10, 2021 at 11:53 PM (#6008194)
It takes at least one month from the first dose to achieve significant levels of protection. That assumes three weeks to get a second dose (for Pfizer, the Moderna vaccine takes another week), and an additional week to gain significant immunity. The recommendation is to wait several more weeks after that for full coverage, but one week after the second dose does basically get you there.

But a tiny percentage of Americans are currently at that level--roughly 8%. That's how many had received a full course of the vaccine a week ago.

A month from today, we'll be close to 20% with significant vaccine-based protection (we're closing in on 1/5 of the population who have received at least one dose), along with ~20% who have protection from actually contracting COVID. There will also be some overlap in those categories, but we can probably assume roughly a third of people with significant immunity in early April. That's good, but it's certainly not great.

Now, if community transmission rates continue to decline, an event like this will still be far too risky to justify, but it hopefully won't be a catastrophe. That's certainly not a recommendation. If I were advising a sports team, I would urge them in the strongest possible terms to hold off on mass attendance until at least June. Things won't be fully 'safe' then (I certainly won't be attending a game in early June, even fully vaccinated), but it will probably be within the realm of normal risk balancing.
   17. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: March 10, 2021 at 11:54 PM (#6008195)
A lot of those vaccinated so far are over 65. I don't know how much of the Opening Day population is typically over 65.

More and more of those under 65 are getting vaccinated! But the numbers are pretty skewed right now I would think.
   18. Mayor Blomberg Posted: March 11, 2021 at 12:06 AM (#6008197)
Now, if community transmission rates continue to decline, an event like this will still be far too risky to justify,

I see someone's not a Texan.
   19. Lowry Seasoning Salt Posted: March 11, 2021 at 12:23 AM (#6008199)
The article doesn’t mention whether or not the roof will be open.


The roof will be closed before it's recognized that ERCOT can't handle the A/C load. Then the roof will be open.
   20. bfan Posted: March 11, 2021 at 08:05 AM (#6008214)
It takes at least one month from the first dose to achieve significant levels of protection


I do not believe that is true. I think in one month (not at least) you are at the 95% protected level (as a donor of the disease and a recipient), and the progess to 95% is not no protection to full protection.
   21. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: March 11, 2021 at 08:49 AM (#6008219)
The article doesn’t mention whether or not the roof will be open.

If I were an Arlington taxpayer on the hook for a billion dollars so the owners can enjoy air conditioning from the moment they enter the stadium, I would be livid if they ever opened the roof and would be saying to weld that damn thing shut.
   22. Baldrick Posted: March 11, 2021 at 09:00 AM (#6008221)
I do not believe that is true. I think in one month (not at least) you are at the 95% protected level (as a donor of the disease and a recipient), and the progess to 95% is not no protection to full protection.

Yes, this is what I meant, though stated more precisely. The evidence isn't super clear about just how much protection you get on each day up the ladder, but it's certainly substantial even before a month. Some studies have suggested that you get 50% coverage after about three weeks, others have said higher. The evidence from the UK where a lot of people are only getting one shot is fairly encouraging. I completely understand that some folks might regard that as 'significant.' But to me, significant protection comes when the vaccine is just about fully activated and you can generally go back to doing stuff, with modest precautions.

Our family is treating one week after the second shot as the critical dividing line - i.e. when we are okay with our parents visiting other vaccinated friends, going to outdoors restaurants, going to the hairdresser, etc.
   23. gef the talking mongoose, peppery hostile Posted: March 11, 2021 at 10:22 AM (#6008226)
40,518 Texans possibly catching the coronavirus? That's what's known as a good start.
   24. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: March 11, 2021 at 11:11 AM (#6008236)

I would guess we are at closer to 25-35% of the population having been infected by this point, and almost 20% fully vaccinated, with some overlap between those groups. Those are national numbers, Texas will be a bit different. April 1 seems a bit early for full capacity events — I would like to see case numbers come down further before those are happening anywhere.
   25. GregD Posted: March 11, 2021 at 12:45 PM (#6008252)
Am curious about the California plan of 20 percent for As and 33 percent for giants (because counties are at different levels but fill in own punch line.)

Outdoors
In two or four person pods

I think Oakland is no concession stands but allows purchase from vendors
SF is I think limited concession stands

The two most prominent public health people in the area split on this, one from UCSF and one from Berkeley. One said he’d go outside, the other said not until fall. Both are very wary of warriors hopes to get people inside.

My daughter is desperate to go to opening day and by then I will be nine days past my second Pfizer.
   26. Mayor Blomberg Posted: March 11, 2021 at 12:49 PM (#6008253)
Dave -- you're mistaking this move for policy when it's red-meat for the base and distraction from the deep freeze.
   27. JRVJ Posted: March 11, 2021 at 02:38 PM (#6008262)
This may not be the group for this, but a real good question is when the U.S. will be in position to start exporting vaccines.

Some of you may know this, but last year the U.S. placed a restriction on the export of COVID vaccines made in the U.S., which remains in place after the change in administrations.

The U.S. is one of the leading manufacturers of vaccines worldwide (i.e., actual factories based in the U.S. produce COVID vaccines, both from American and non-American pharma companies), and at some point this year, the combination of the U.S. population which has been vaccinated plus the number of vaccines which are already in stock will be such that U.S. production can be exported.

What possible benefit could the U.S. derive from exporting COVID vaccines? Well, besides the fact that there's a business / economic interest in doing so, SARS-COV-2 has shown the ability to mutate, so that the U.S. indirectly benefits from killing off the pandemic all over the world (i.e., to avoid it mutating in Burkina Faso or Borneo, in a way that could wreak havoc on the U.S. population, even if those Americans have already been vaccinated).

I would think that at some point, the combination of vaccines in storage plus the number of vaccines being produced will be more than what U.S. states can apply. I have no idea when THAT will happen, but I would hope that the U.S. (at a Federal level) will allow some vaccines to be exported from that point onwards (i.e., it seems foolish to me to increase your stockpile just for the sake of increasing it, if by exporting vaccines you decrease the indirect risk to the U.S population of not bringing the pandemic under control).
   28. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: March 11, 2021 at 02:49 PM (#6008265)
April 1 seems a bit early for full capacity events — I would like to see case numbers come down further before those are happening anywhere.


That's my take too. Even the best experts are winging it a bit, there is no certainty model out there. As frustrating as it is I'd rather wait an extra month or two than rush back and start the clock over. It's kind of the opposite of the Rickey theory of getting rid of a guy a year early than a year late. I'd rather reopen a month later than a month too early. We are so close to normalization if we regress because people can't wait a few more weeks that's just idiotic. Hopefully this will not be a problem.
   29. Ron J Posted: March 11, 2021 at 02:59 PM (#6008267)
#27 You probably want to bring that to the main Covid thread.
   30. The Yankee Clapper Posted: March 11, 2021 at 03:09 PM (#6008270)
This may not be the group for this, but a real good question is when the U.S. will be in position to start exporting vaccines.
I don’t think there is much doubt that export restrictions will be lifted as soon as those in this country who want to be vaccinated are accommodated. There probably will be some lead time built in, so an announcement could come 30 days in advance, to allow the last group to be vaccinated. Can’t really come any sooner - allowing vaccines developed with massive government subsidies to be exported before Americans are vaccinated is a non-starter politically. My guess is that means some time this summer for exports.
   31. JRVJ Posted: March 11, 2021 at 03:24 PM (#6008272)
29, will think about doing that.

30, it may not come across, but there will be a disengage between vaccine production and people getting vaccinated.

The point is that at some point the issue will no longer be production (because there will be more than enough vaccines to go around), but either distribution or the actual jabbing of people cannot go faster.

You sort of deal with this by saying that it's a non-starter politically to export vaccines if there are still Americans waiting to be vaccinated... but it would be terrible for vaccines to be sitting in storage for a weeks or even months, because they cannot be applied fast enough.

We'll see, I guess.
   32. Tom Goes to the Ballpark Posted: March 11, 2021 at 03:24 PM (#6008273)
I would think that at some point, the combination of vaccines in storage plus the number of vaccines being produced will be more than what U.S. states can apply. I have no idea when THAT will happen, but I would hope that the U.S. (at a Federal level) will allow some vaccines to be exported from that point onwards (i.e., it seems foolish to me to increase your stockpile just for the sake of increasing it, if by exporting vaccines you decrease the indirect risk to the U.S population of not bringing the pandemic under control).
Just yesterday Biden said that excess vaccines would be distributed to foreign countries. He didn’t mention a timeline or on what basis they would be distributed though. Obviously, their current priority is to vaccinate as many Americans as quickly as possible, but they seem to know that they will have more vaccines than the the US can use at some point this year.

When will it happen? I see three main factors that will determine when the US will have enough excess vaccine that they won’t worry about foreign distribution:
1) Ramp up of supply - Will Pfizer, Moderna, and J&J be able to continue to increase supply and hit (or exceed) the contracted volume
2) Authorization of usage for minors - When will the vaccine be approved for ~75M minors? That is like 6-8 weeks of production.
3) How many Americans refuse to be vaccinated - I suspect that this number will only end up being 10-15%, but if it is more like 30% that could lead to a glut of supply be early July.

If J&J can successfully ramp up their production, in concert with Merck, then I will guess August for the export ban to be relaxed.

   33. base ball chick Posted: March 11, 2021 at 03:34 PM (#6008274)
Mayor Blomberg Posted: March 11, 2021 at 12:49 PM (#6008253)
Dave -- you're mistaking this move for policy when it's red-meat for the base and distraction from the deep freeze


DINGDINGDING!!!!

so INteresting that the governor just hap-pened to think of this when people were screaming about all the 26 millions the gas companies had given him to protect their pocketbooks and numbers of folks who froze to death or died from no electric to their machines to keep them living were getting big pub

he wants to get talk back to Those Illegals are teh EVULLLL and are creeping in here like the rats they are and vote for meeeee

what gas/electric bills you talkin bout? regulations? tax the gas people to pay for the mess?

hunh? wha?

besides

we all know that White people can't get Covid/die unless they are old and using up taxpayer money anyhow.
   34. JRVJ Posted: March 11, 2021 at 03:48 PM (#6008276)
32, three comments: (a) AstraZeneca may at some point be approved in the U.S.

For a number or reasons it hasn't been, but it's out there.

(b) There are still some vaccines out there close to approval (Novavax being one, as well as the German Curevac, which will be produced and distributed by Bayer). Those could become part of the arsenal later in the year.

(c) Some countries in the world (France being the most prominent one) have taken the decision to only give one shot of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine (and I think also the Moderna vaccine, but I could be wrong here) to those who had COVID and recovered.

As you can imagine, that can liberate a number of vaccines for people who haven't been vaccinated yet.
   35. bunyon Posted: March 11, 2021 at 03:57 PM (#6008277)
The US is pretty settled that we aren't going to give only one shot where the trials had two. Frankly, I think it's nuts for anyone to do so. Yeah, maybe it works, but you don't know. If you're wrong, you waste tens of millions of doses.

I think we export before August. If we get every adult who wants shots by mid-May, we'll start exporting by start of July. The companies want to and the current government wants to. Production is still growing and everyone knows we need to vaccinate around the world for security.

But, JRVJ, I think you vastly underestimate the political shitstorm if we start exporting before people here can get shots. And a lot of states/counties are waaaay behind where they should be. It's possible we'll miss mid-May "finish" simply because we can't get distribution worked out.


If you're vaccinated (10 days past dose 2), go to opening day. Enjoy it.

Anyone heard from BDC? If you're lurking, are you going? (Have you had shots - hope so.)
   36. The Yankee Clapper Posted: March 11, 2021 at 03:58 PM (#6008278)
You sort of deal with this by saying that it's a non-starter politically to export vaccines if there are still Americans waiting to be vaccinated... but it would be terrible for vaccines to be sitting in storage for a weeks or even months, because they cannot be applied fast enough.
Perhaps I wasn’t clear, but I think the lead time of any decision will address that. If the country is on schedule to have everyone vaccinated by the end of May (possibly a bit optimistic), doses beyond that could be freed up for export while the remaining domestic doses are distributed. There should be considerable pressure for states & localities to ramp up distribution & administration to match ramped up production, so there shouldn’t still be long lag times, but we’ll see how it goes. Inevitably, some jurisdictions will do better than others.
   37. JRVJ Posted: March 11, 2021 at 04:05 PM (#6008281)
36, right, that's what I was trying to get across.

35, everything is a political hot potato nowadays, so I understand that there's an extremely high chance that any exports prior to complete vaccination in the U.S. will be an issue, but 36 gets what I was trying to convey: there will inevitably be a point where there are enough vaccines PRODUCED though not injected, and that's when things will get REALLY interesting (precisely because of the political consequences of starting exports at that time).

   38. bunyon Posted: March 11, 2021 at 04:07 PM (#6008283)
People wanting vaccines in other countries don't vote in US elections. Americans wanting vaccines do. Not every American has to be vaccinated before exports begin but every American has to have gotten the opportunity to be vaccinated before they're exported or the officer(s) deciding to export will get crucified.

It may be entirely rational to start exporting before every American has a shot at a shot in the interest of global minimization, but it won't happen.
   39. Tom Goes to the Ballpark Posted: March 11, 2021 at 05:16 PM (#6008290)
32, three comments: (a) AstraZeneca may at some point be approved in the U.S.

For a number or reasons it hasn't been, but it's out there.

(b) There are still some vaccines out there close to approval (Novavax being one, as well as the German Curevac, which will be produced and distributed by Bayer). Those could become part of the arsenal later in the year.

(c) Some countries in the world (France being the most prominent one) have taken the decision to only give one shot of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine (and I think also the Moderna vaccine, but I could be wrong here) to those who had COVID and recovered.


a) AZ is not happening here because they screwed up their trial. There is already a *wink* *wink* deal to send the US AZ supply to Europe.

b) There is no reason for the US to approve other vaccines because there will be an abundance here before the other ones are ready to be approved.

c) The US is clearly not going to experiment with dosing. If it was going to happen it would have happened in December or January.

There are a ton of idiots out there who have staked out a position against the vaccines. It is ridiculous and stupid. If the US exports any vaccines before there are enough for Americans it will give the idiots an opportunity to pivot to “Biden gave away my vaccine to foreigners” and erase their previous positions. It is unlikely Biden commits an unforced error like that.
   40. The Honorable Ardo Posted: March 11, 2021 at 06:18 PM (#6008305)
It is unlikely Biden commits an unforced error like that.
Quite true. Biden is bad at thinking outside the box. (He never was great at it even when younger.) But he's experienced enough not to whiff. Heck, "I don't commit unforced errors" was his whole campaign platform.
   41. The Yankee Clapper Posted: March 11, 2021 at 06:52 PM (#6008308)
If the US exports any vaccines before there are enough for Americans it will give the idiots an opportunity to pivot to “Biden gave away my vaccine to foreigners” and erase their previous positions. It is unlikely Biden commits an unforced error like that.
Its pretty simple for the government to say it has enough vaccine on hand for every American who wants it, even if it will take a few more weeks to distribute & administer it. Don’t see much political risk in allowing exports at the same time that announcement is made. The good news would be the big story*. Those who would hold that against Biden, their state’s Governor, or local government officials probably already have other reasons for their opposition.

* Indeed, the development of multiple effective vaccines in record time should be heralded even more than it has been. There were many predictions, here & elsewhere, that we’d be well into 2021 before a vaccine was developed.
   42. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: March 11, 2021 at 06:59 PM (#6008314)
Dave -- you're mistaking this move for policy when it's red-meat for the base and distraction from the deep freeze.

I know what it is, but I can still express an opinion about it.
   43. JRVJ Posted: March 11, 2021 at 06:59 PM (#6008315)
39, in re: (a), the U.S. can export vaccines (or more generally, any medicine) which is manufactured in the U.S. but not licensed or pemitted in the U.S.?

That definitely would change my understanding of the issue.

(b) The answer here depends on (a).

If the U.S. can export vaccines made in the U.S.A. but not licensed in the U.S.A., then approving other vaccines is a non-issue, since the thing is to be able to use the factories in the U.S.

(c) Not convinced of that. The U.S. may well change its position if there's overwhelming evidence that supports it.
   44. Tom Goes to the Ballpark Posted: March 11, 2021 at 07:26 PM (#6008322)
Currently there is a ban on exporting COVID vaccines. Whether or not the vaccines are approved by the government has nothing to do with why they can’t leave the country. Trump bought 300M AZ vaccines and 50M+ doses are currently sitting in Ohio and Massachusetts. The US isn’t going to use them because AZ screwed up their trial, but the US can’t give them away because it would be a PR disaster. Once there are plenty of doses here those AZ vaccines will be shipped out to Europe or wherever.

It is too late for evidence in support of changing dosing in the US. That evidence would have needed to clear a month ago to make a difference. There is a solid chance that dosing recommendations are changed in the fall, but everyone willing to be vaccinated will have already been vaccinated by that point.
   45. Hank Gillette Posted: March 11, 2021 at 07:50 PM (#6008329)
These aren’t my numbers. The Covid tracking project has tons of data. The number vaccinated was 78 million about 10 days ago and J & J has not been ramped up yet. Yes the number does not break down one shot/two shot but one shot is very effective. In most states the 50-65 demo is about to start. Under 50 and the death rate is miniscule so people may still get it but it’s more like a cold or flu for them.


They are counting individual doses administered. They even say doses, not number of people vaccinated. Also, they have stopped collecting data as of March 7th.

According to the Washington Post, at least 64.1 million people have received one or both doses of the vaccine in the U.S., including more than 33.2 million people who have been fully vaccinated. That works out to about 97 million doses given.
   46. Hank Gillette Posted: March 11, 2021 at 08:03 PM (#6008332)
b) There is no reason for the US to approve other vaccines because there will be an abundance here before the other ones are ready to be approved.


The U.S. has already given Novavax $1.6 billion, so if their vaccine proves effective (and preliminary data looks pretty good), I expect that it will be approved. There is no reason not to; as long as COVID-19 is still unchecked in other countries, more variants will pop up, putting us in danger.
   47. The Yankee Clapper Posted: March 11, 2021 at 08:09 PM (#6008333)
There is no reason for the US to approve other vaccines because there will be an abundance here before the other ones are ready to be approved.
I don’t believe the supply of existing vaccine is a criteria for approving new products, nor is there any reason that it should be as far as I can see. Same for drugs generally.
   48. Tom Goes to the Ballpark Posted: March 11, 2021 at 09:05 PM (#6008341)
The U.S. has already given Novavax $1.6 billion, so if their vaccine proves effective (and preliminary data looks pretty good), I expect that it will be approved. There is no reason not to; as long as COVID-19 is still unchecked in other countries, more variants will pop up, putting us in danger.
It is not clear that Novovax can deliver any significant quantity before fall so they are a bit of a long shot to be part of the US plan. The US basically gave anyone with a credible vaccine candidate $1B+ to lock up supply. That decision looks really good now as other governments struggle to get vaccine supply— not that it was controversial at the time.

I don’t believe the supply of existing vaccine is a criteria for approving new products, nor is there any reason that it should be as far as I can see. Same for drugs generally.
Any safe and effective vaccine will be authorized eventually, but it is unclear if there are any more emergency use authorizations coming.
   49. JRVJ Posted: March 11, 2021 at 09:27 PM (#6008344)
44, thanks for the clarification.

In line with what you say, the rest of the world does benefit from the Novavax and Curevax's of the world, in that if they can be produced in the U.S. / be ready to ship once it's politically expedient (assuming that you're right that there would still be a political firestorm from exporting vaccines which have not been submitted for approval / approved in the U.S.), THAT would still be a great boon to the rest of the world, since those vaccines will be gobbled up by other countries.
   50. cardsfanboy Posted: March 11, 2021 at 09:32 PM (#6008347)
Not that it matters, but I know exactly one person who has received the vaccine.. my girlfriend, she works for the police department and is classified as necessary or whatever the term is. She actually already had covid about two months ago (I never got it even though we live together... been tested four times now, and yet to show a positive, although it's very possible I did get it between the first and second test, and before she actually got it-- had the flu, which isn't unusual for me, get it every year in late November, and got it then, but it might not have been the flu... who knows.)

My neighbor is getting the vaccine sometime next week (she's high risk and hasn't actually left her house in a year because of this) beyond that, a couple of other people are scheduled to get it, and to be honest I do think I have had two friends on facebook post they got it also. This vaccine is trickling down, but it's not actually hitting the groups of people who are actually working in industries while dealing with customers. (retailers are probably in their 20-50 year old group and relatively healthy)
   51. Tom Goes to the Ballpark Posted: March 11, 2021 at 09:55 PM (#6008352)
In line with what you say, the rest of the world does benefit from the Novavax and Curevax's of the world, in that if they can be produced in the U.S. / be ready to ship once it's politically expedient (assuming that you're right that there would still be a political firestorm from exporting vaccines which have not been submitted for approval / approved in the U.S.), THAT would still be a great boon to the rest of the world, since those vaccines will be gobbled up by other countries.
I suspect any firestorm about exporting vaccines that are not FDA approved will come from the countries receiving the vaccines. Something along the lines of “Oh you colonialists are giving/selling us the trash that you don’t want”.
   52. The Yankee Clapper Posted: March 11, 2021 at 10:39 PM (#6008366)
This vaccine is trickling down, but it's not actually hitting the groups of people who are actually working in industries while dealing with customers. (retailers are probably in their 20-50 year old group and relatively healthy)
That’s consistent with the current priorities. Someone in the 20 - 50 age group is likely to only have a mild case, not so for those older, hence their priority. On the occupational priorities, the key is whether the job is essential, not just how much public contact it has, although that may overlap in some instances.
   53. The Yankee Clapper Posted: March 11, 2021 at 10:59 PM (#6008373)
It is not clear that Novovax can deliver any significant quantity before fall so they are a bit of a long shot to be part of the US plan.
Latest news - it’s getting closer to approval:
A coronavirus vaccine developed by Maryland biotechnology company Novavax was effective — particularly in preventing severe cases of illness — in two trials conducted in areas of the world overrun by concerning variants of the virus, the company announced Thursday.
. . .
In its final analysis, which has not yet been peer-reviewed or published, the company said that its vaccine was 96 percent effective against mild, moderate and severe cases of covid-19 caused by the original strain. That dropped, modestly, to 86 percent against the B.1.1.7 variant first detected in the United Kingdom. In South Africa, where a variant called B.1.351 has become dominant, the vaccine was 55 percent effective against any cases of covid-19 among participants who were not infected with HIV. But it was 100 percent effective against severe disease, including against the variants.
Pretty good, assuming that holds up.
   54. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: March 12, 2021 at 06:47 AM (#6008393)
Oh, boy, another coronavirus thread! I'll chime in...

(1) We're all gonna die!
(2) It's all a certain political party's fault!
(3) Did we mention the fact we're all gonna die?
(4) Did we mention that it's all a certain political party's fault?
(5) ???
(6) Prophets!

Carry on.
   55. JRVJ Posted: March 12, 2021 at 08:11 AM (#6008396)
51, First, the inevitable proviso: you'll always find someONE complaining about someTHING somewhere (or a group of someONEs complaining about someTHING somewhere).

So I don't doubt there'll be a complaint along those lines, but I do not believe that it will be anything meaningful (look at the number of countries that started using the Russian Sputnik V vaccine without it having being approved by any meaningful regulator).

As to the more general point, if it's a vaccine which has been permitted by the WHO or by the European regulator or another meaningful regulator, like the AstraZeneca one, I don't believe that there will be any meaningful complaints if it hasn't been licensed in the U.S.

Ditto for Novovax if it gets licensed by the WHO or the Europeans or some other meaningful country pror to the FDC.

If, however, a pharma company ships vaccines not permitted anywhere meaningful (including by the FDC) from the U.S. to another country, THAT would be scandalous, and could be very counterproductive (if it's a junk vaccine, there's a change that the virus could mutate around that vaccine's weak protection, thus complicating things for the whole world).

P.S. I see that the NY Times just did an article on this. Will read it later today, as I don't have the NY Times registered on this device.
   56. Hot Wheeling American Posted: March 12, 2021 at 11:08 AM (#6008420)
My neighbor is getting the vaccine sometime next week (she's high risk and hasn't actually left her house in a year because of this) beyond that, a couple of other people are scheduled to get it, and to be honest I do think I have had two friends on facebook post they got it also. This vaccine is trickling down, but it's not actually hitting the groups of people who are actually working in industries while dealing with customers. (retailers are probably in their 20-50 year old group and relatively healthy)

In what state are you?
   57. JRVJ Posted: March 12, 2021 at 11:17 AM (#6008426)
   58. . Posted: March 12, 2021 at 11:43 AM (#6008430)
There really still isn't any serious statistical relationship between masks or any other mandates, and results. Primary driver of results is obviously weather. Second is probably voluntary efforts by the populace in reaction to movements in cases/deaths. There was more actual science in Mike Rizzo's Strasburg Rules. We've lost our ability as a country to have rational discussions of these things, which is unfortunate.
   59. A triple short of the cycle Posted: March 12, 2021 at 11:49 AM (#6008431)
Am curious about the California plan of 20 percent for As and 33 percent for giants (because counties are at different levels but fill in own punch line.)

For the A's, 20 percent capacity is a great crowd!
   60. greenback used to say live and let live Posted: March 12, 2021 at 11:50 AM (#6008434)
I got my first shot a week ago, and I was surprised me by one line in the one page summary the clinic handed to vaccinees -- it explicitly says the vaccine has NOT been approved by the FDA. The document did go on further to explain emergency use authorization, but it seemed like an odd message to send me just as I'm ready to do cartwheels.
   61. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: March 12, 2021 at 06:59 PM (#6008482)
There really still isn't any serious statistical relationship between masks or any other mandates, and results. Primary driver of results is obviously weather. Second is probably voluntary efforts by the populace in reaction to movements in cases/deaths. There was more actual science in Mike Rizzo's Strasburg Rules. We've lost our ability as a country to have rational discussions of these things, which is unfortunate.

Sadly true. It seems like many, many people's response have fallen into two extremes of (near performance art level) absurdity based on tribal allegiance. People who won't wear a mask or avoid big parties are equally insane as those who won't let their close family into their homes, or eat in a socially distanced restaurant. There was a reasonable middle ground which eliminated huge public events, and enforced masking, while not shutting down 80% of our social lives, robbing kids of two years of education, and idling huge swathes of the economy, but we whiffed. Basically nothing the Gov't has done (both parties included), except the vaccine development effort, has done any good.
   62. Howie Menckel Posted: March 12, 2021 at 07:11 PM (#6008484)
I have winced at many, many reopening efforts in the past year which struck me as quite risky. no thanks for me, personally.

but yes, the vibe here and elsewhere was "THEY'RE ALL GONNA DIE!"

and then - well, it didn't quite happen as the critics had forecasted. I am/was surprised, but it just didn't.

now Texas (and Mississippi and Connecticut) have reopened, and here we go again.

but if the numbers there don't indicate a calamity after 4-5 weeks, will anyone want to talk about that?

for those who think I am exaggerating.....

note: I saved these from last year:

an ex-AP bureau chief on April 20: "Mark this day. Because two or three weeks from now, the Georgia death toll's blood is on [the R Governor's] hands."

Washington Post columnist Dana Milbank on April 21: "Georgia Leads The Race To Become America's No. 1 Death Destination."

The Atlantic on April 29: "Georgia's Experiment in Human Sacrifice."
   63. BDC Posted: March 12, 2021 at 09:18 PM (#6008492)
Hi, bunyon, thanks for the good wishes - I have had no vaccine yet, though I am finally eligible and registered to get it. Texas started with health-care workers, moved to >65, then to K-12 teachers, and now >50 and that's me. I have been teaching in person since August, though, masked & distanced.

I don't plan to attend any kind of event this year, or to travel. I haven't left my own county in 12 months. Next item on my calendar is Madama Butterfly at the Dallas Opera in Feb. 2022 :)

I hope everyone is staying safe and healthy!
   64. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: March 12, 2021 at 09:18 PM (#6008493)
I have winced at many, many reopening efforts in the past year which struck me as quite risky. no thanks for me, personally.

but yes, the vibe here and elsewhere was "THEY'RE ALL GONNA DIE!"

and then - well, it didn't quite happen as the critics had forecasted. I am/was surprised, but it just didn't.


Just maybe individuals are better at gauging their own personal risk than Gropey Andrew is.
   65. MuttsIdolCochrane Posted: March 13, 2021 at 06:10 AM (#6008511)
Texas, huh? Swell. Didn't I hear there was going to be a less than cerebral but FREEDOM! based mass mask burning at second base led by the greatly admired Ted Cruz?
   66. crict Posted: March 13, 2021 at 08:05 AM (#6008512)
Canadian here. Our vaccination effort will probably take 6 more months than US, mostly because we just can't get enough vaccines. We're a small country without the proper pharma industry to produce our own vaccines. I understand why US don't share, and we'd probably do the same if we were in the same position. Long term though, we'll have no choice to (re)build our own pharma industry. That'll be great for shareholders of Big pharma who'll get subsidies accross the globe, not so great for their US employees.
   67. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: March 13, 2021 at 01:21 PM (#6008519)
Sadly true. It seems like many, many people's response have fallen into two extremes of (near performance art level) absurdity based on tribal allegiance. People who won't wear a mask or avoid big parties are equally insane as those who won't let their close family into their homes, or eat in a socially distanced restaurant. There was a reasonable middle ground which eliminated huge public events, and enforced masking, while not shutting down 80% of our social lives, robbing kids of two years of education, and idling huge swathes of the economy, but we whiffed. Basically nothing the Gov't has done (both parties included), except the vaccine development effort, has done any good.

The problem with that equivalence is that while the second group is overreacting, it's only the first group that has enabled the pandemic to stick around. As long as the first group persists in their practices, what the second group does is pretty much irrelevant.
   68. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: March 13, 2021 at 04:34 PM (#6008529)
The problem with that equivalence is that while the second group is overreacting, it's only the first group that has enabled the pandemic to stick around. As long as the first group persists in their practices, what the second group does is pretty much irrelevant.

Disagree. The pandemic has stuck around everywhere, even in countries where they've had far harsher restrictions, and much stricter compliance. That's the nature of these epidemic viruses; they can't really be stopped, short of a vaccine.

The death tolls have largely varied based on population density, weather, age, and unhealthiness. The US has a large death toll because we have an old, fat population, and a cold climate.

   69. Mayor Blomberg Posted: March 13, 2021 at 04:53 PM (#6008530)
population density

MS, SD, AL, ND, all in the top dozen, unlike CA at 30 all wish to disagree. Between them they don't have a decent-sized city. & the idea that "stuck aroud" = "would have been the same without" is idiotic.
   70. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: March 13, 2021 at 05:00 PM (#6008531)

MS, SD, AL, ND, all in the top dozen, unlike CA at 30 all wish to disagree. Between them they don't have a decent-sized city. & the idea that "stuck aroud" = "would have been the same without" is idiotic.


Density isn't the only factor. MS and AL have terrible issues with obesity, and generally poor health. SD and ND are very cold. California is warm.

   71. The Yankee Clapper Posted: March 13, 2021 at 07:13 PM (#6008538)
I understand why US don't share, and we'd probably do the same if we were in the same position.
Canada will likely be 1st to receive US-produced vaccine as soon as we have vaccinated those Americans who want it. That would be a huge surge in supply, that may tax those charged with distributing & administering it ASAP. Might need to reopen the border to get the vaccine through.
   72. The Yankee Clapper Posted: March 13, 2021 at 08:32 PM (#6008542)
4,575,496 vaccine doses have been administered today, besting the prior high by more than 1.5M, according to CDC data. The ramping up of the supply seems to be kicking in, although weekend days will probably have higher numbers since, as was explained when I got my 2nd dose, extra health care workers needed elsewhere M-F can also be ‘drafted’ for vaccine duty on weekends.
   73. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: March 31, 2021 at 10:53 AM (#6010838)
Attendance for the exhibition game: 12,911

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Dynasty League Baseball

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Martin Hemner
for his generous support.

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogNBA 2021-2022 Season Thread
(229 - 5:35pm, Oct 21)
Last: spivey 2

NewsblogIt’s time for the city of Chicago to repeal the Wrigley Field night game ordinance
(11 - 5:31pm, Oct 21)
Last: Walt Davis

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 10-21-2021
(12 - 5:25pm, Oct 21)
Last: SoSH U at work

NewsblogDodgers Albert Pujols Hits the COVID-19 Injured List
(217 - 5:22pm, Oct 21)
Last: Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network)

Newsblog2021 LCS OMNICHATTER!
(549 - 5:06pm, Oct 21)
Last: CFBF is Obsessed with Art Deco

NewsblogCarlton Fisk kept it fair, but Keith Olbermann’s attempt to sell historic ball is foul
(6 - 5:01pm, Oct 21)
Last: Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network)

NewsblogNathan Eovaldi, Boston Red Sox take issue with pivotal ball-strike call in loss to Houston Astros
(39 - 4:58pm, Oct 21)
Last: dave h

NewsblogThe fans' way at Fenway: loud, louder, loudest
(50 - 4:50pm, Oct 21)
Last: Cris E

NewsblogOT Soccer Thread - Transfer! Kits! Other Stuff!
(456 - 3:45pm, Oct 21)
Last: AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale

NewsblogBaseball Games Are Still Too Long—and Getting Longer
(102 - 3:42pm, Oct 21)
Last: .

NewsblogMLB Just Tried a Bunch of Experimental Rules in the Minors. How Well Did They Work?
(7 - 3:41pm, Oct 21)
Last: Rally

Sox TherapyThe Boston Red Sox Will Play for the Pennant
(190 - 1:26pm, Oct 21)
Last: bunyon

NewsblogBaseball America: If There's A MLB Lockout In 2022, What Happens To The Minors Leagues?
(1 - 11:15am, Oct 21)
Last: Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc

NewsblogGlenn Burke, baseball’s first openly gay player, to be subject of Netflix series produced by Jamie Lee Curtis, Ryan Murphy
(13 - 9:51am, Oct 21)
Last: Tony S

NewsblogEx-major leaguer Matsuzaka walks away from baseball with love for game
(24 - 9:23am, Oct 21)
Last: John DiFool2

Page rendered in 0.4566 seconds
48 querie(s) executed