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Sunday, September 13, 2020

Texas’ Skinny Rebuild Isn’t Working Out

But for those hoping that a full rebuild will yield quick results, think again. While it’s more than possible that ZiPS is wrong, it can’t be overlooked that entering the season, the system projected the Rangers to end up with the least value from rounds one-to-five of the 2015-19 drafts of any team in baseball, with their picks combining for a total of 16.6 WAR. The player in the system ZiPS liked the most entering the year, Sherten Apostel, still projects as not-quite league-average at his best. Leody Taveras is playing in the majors right now, but the projections only peg him as having a 70-80 wRC+ in his prime. He may play enough defense to be a contributor, but it’s unlikely he — or Tejeda, Josh Jung, or Cole Winn — represent the savior this lineup needs.

Trading players like Gallo and Lynn is unlikely to be popular with the fanbase, but given the team’s setbacks, it’s increasingly difficult to see another way out.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: September 13, 2020 at 06:33 PM | 10 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: rangers

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   1. Walt Davis Posted: September 13, 2020 at 11:23 PM (#5976266)
Dan, if you're eavesdropping ... have you looked at how well ZiPS projections do over the first few years of a career? I can imagine these projections would be extra heavily regressed to the middle -- and for minor-leaguers, I assume that middle is pretty low. I'd think that "not quite league average" is a pretty good outcome and that rarely would any prospect project beyond, say, 4 WAR. Is there a handy link?
   2. BDC Posted: September 14, 2020 at 12:53 PM (#5976334)
After beating Oakland yesterday, Lance Lynn is 6-2 with an ERA of 2.40. The rest of the staff is 11-28, 5.79.

Dan is correct here, of course. The "skinny rebuild" idea depended on all the key players having career years at the same time, and all the journeymen the Rangers imported to back them up also having career years, and all the retread starting pitchers having career years, and Corey Kluber being able to pitch more than one inning. But almost any team can hope for that. It was way too much for the Rangers to bring off.

Most ominous (as Dan also notices) is that the future isn't well-stocked either. Leody Taveras and Anderson Tejeda are in the lineup now but though they might have careers they don't project to be stars. The Rangers did just bring up their best prospect, a catcher named Sam Huff, who … would dwarf the real Sam Huff. This new Huff is listed at 6'5", 240. Huff never played above A ball before, but he was knocking the heck out of the ball down there the past few years.

So that's OK, but that also exhausts potential contributors from an already-weak farm system for a while. It is going to be a long decade ahead.
   3. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 14, 2020 at 01:05 PM (#5976335)
It is going to be a long decade ahead.
But climate controlled. Let’s not lose track of the important stuff.
   4. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: September 14, 2020 at 01:06 PM (#5976336)
After beating Oakland yesterday, Lance Lynn is 6-2 with an ERA of 2.40. The rest of the staff is 11-28, 5.79.
Lance Lynn quite clearly is not participating in any skinny rebuild.
   5. Rally Posted: September 14, 2020 at 01:06 PM (#5976337)
Sherten Apostel is a real name? I think you are making things up.
   6. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: September 14, 2020 at 01:38 PM (#5976348)
Fer sherten it’s a real name
   7. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: September 14, 2020 at 01:52 PM (#5976350)
Legend has it that the Book of Sherten was one of the last cuts from the Bible before it went to press.
   8. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 14, 2020 at 02:00 PM (#5976352)
Legend has it that the Book of Sherten was one of the last cuts from the Bible before it went to press.

Probably because he kept spelling Apostle wrong.
   9. BDC Posted: September 14, 2020 at 02:22 PM (#5976354)
But climate controlled. Let’s not lose track of the important stuff

If they’re going to play .350 baseball there has to be something to turn out for ...
   10. Jaack Posted: September 14, 2020 at 02:28 PM (#5976355)
With the Padres actually becoming good and interesting, the Rangers seem determined to take their spot as the least relevant team in baseball.

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