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Thursday, December 27, 2012
The 2013 HOF Ballot Collecting Gizmo!
Updated 1:55 ~ 194 Full Ballots ~ (33.9% of vote ~ based on last year)
70.1 - Biggio
60.3 - Piazza
59.8 - Raines
59.3 - Bagwell
59.3 - J. Morris
45.4 - Bonds
44.3 - Clemens
39.2 - Schilling
38.1 - L. Smith
37.6 - Trammell
35.6 - E. Martinez
20.1 - McGriff
18.6 - D. Murphy
16.5 - L. Walker
14.4 - McGwire
13.4 - S. Sosa
12.9 - Raffy
8.8 - Mattingly ———————————
3.1 - Lofton
2.1 - Bernie Williams
1.7 - P. Rose (goofy write-in’s)
0.5 - D. Wells
0.5 - J. Franco
0.5 - S. Alomar Jr.
0.5 - S. Green
Repoz
Posted: December 27, 2012 at 12:08 PM | 832 comment(s)
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Yeah. Hard to separate those camps on the evidence. There's a huge WAR gap on the current ballot between #2 (Clemens, 133.9) and #3 (Bagwell, 76.7). If you think Bagwell is a juicer and give a 20 WAR discount, that might be enough to knock Bagwell off your ballot. But for Clemens, he's safe even on a 60 WAR discount.
A-Rod will be the first (and maybe only, unless anything comes out on Randy Johnson or Greg Maddux) that could survive a substantial steroid discount, but not a timing question.
Doesn't seem like very much difference, as Palmeiro's vote percentage is smack in the middle of Sosa and McGwire.
As others have said, in 20 years the steroid issue will have vanished and other issues will take its place (genetic cheating, bionics, whatever). Bonds, Clemens and others (A-Rod for example) will get in by writers while others (Palmeiro) wait for a future vet committee to put them in as they are pushed too far down early on to recover in time.
I suspect in 20 years people will look back at the voting from this period much like many here look back at the 1980/1990's Cy Young and MVP voting - very weird and rewarding the wrong guys (Jack Morris getting more votes than Bonds & Clemens - what were those voters thinking).
H
True story, I ran into Bernie today in San Juan, immediately recognized him and wished him luck in the upcoming HOF vote. He thanked me and mentioned that it would take "ten years" if it were to happen. Hopefully he gets to hang out on the ballot for the full 15 years.
It didn't. It meant he paled in comparison to Sandberg and therefore was never perceived as the best 2B in the game.
On a related note, I knew people, close to the Red Sox organization, who believed that Clemens was using steroids as early as 1990. If you had asked me at any time in the 1990s to guess the roiders, I would have said Canseco and Clemens, 1 and 2.
Personally I would just ignore the whole issue and vote. But spare me the whole court of law thing on the friggin' Hall of Fame vote.
I assume that you also accept religious edicts on morality blindly without rational thought or question as to their purpose.
Despite attitudes like this, The Steroid Enlightenment and Reformation will eventually happen.
Repoz--exactly how many blank ballots do we currently have in the sample?
Mark--A moral judgment, when applied to an individual, requires a burden of proof, and thus needs to adhere to the principle of "innocent until proven guilty." Otherwise gossip and hearsay legitimize lynch mobs. Your personal inclination is the right one, because it recognizes that in the absence of incontrovertible proof, moral judgment needs to be set aside.
How does this possibly make any sense? While displaying an obnoxious prejudice against religious belief, you fail to offer any valid critique of Mark Armour's comment.
As it is, I think Mark Armour is wrong, but it's hardly a simple question. If the moral issue is relevant, then there's no particular reason why the criminal standard of proof is needed (or indeed the civil standard). Nevertheless, I think there should be some threshold of likelihood at which one applies a moral judgement. The alternate view is respectable in respect of non-substantial penalties, like Cooperstown honours- that with a 5% likelihood of guilt, one should apply 5% of the relevant penalty, and at a 95% likelihood of guilt, one should apply 95% of the relevant penalty.
The tight standards today could easily become loose in a few years. I figure 2-3 vets (or more) plus 2 writers choices a year at some point will be common in an effort to 'fix' the empty space due to the steroid issue and the writers ignoring guys who played in the 80's (Whittaker for example).
The 1980 ballot had 12 get in with good candidate in Gil Hodges waiting still. That was a weak ballot with just 5 over 60 WAR and another 2 over 50. 1990 had 6 over 60, and 6 more in the 50's and 2 who did get in below that (Cepeda & Mazeroski) and 2 others who are viewed as serious candidates below 50 (Kaat & Minoso).
1970's had 4 60's, 7 50's and 6 lower than that get in as well.
1960's had 6 60's, 11 50's, 28 lower than that who got in with the lowest being Leo Durocher who was in due to managing as were many low WAR guys.
2000's (since I'm covering decades) had 4 60's, 3 50's, and 3 lower get in with Sutter's 23.1 WAR the lowest to make it so far. I can easily see Morris, Kaat, Tommy John, Luis Tiant and maybe Keith Hernandez getting in from that ballot eventually. Funny looking at the 2000 ballot I see no one with 400 HR, just one with 1500 RBI's, no one with 2800 hits.
4- Faller, Ebro, Gurnick and Chris Jenkins (which I'm counting as being turned in)
There are also the not-turned in ballots of Fay, Knapp and Quinn.
Absurd. Without evidence, it's just a witch hunt.
http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/mets/post/_/id/59708/my-ballot-no-bonds-clemens-piazza-in-13?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
Seriously? This take has been presented here since 1999 or so. It's surely been raised in almost every "who's on steroids", "steroids and HoF" threads we've ever had. Andy alone probably brings it up 3 times per 60 posts. The conversation usually goes like this:
"X used steroids."
"What's your evidence?"
"C'mon just look at him."
"That's not evidence."
"Hey, this isn't a court of law."
Do not ask me to make a moral judgment and then tell me I need some burden of proof.
Eek-a-mouse.
"Steroid use in baseball was wrong" is a moral judgment.
"Roger Clemens used steroids" is an evidentiary statement. Although the spell-checker doesn't think evidentiary is a word so sue me.
Now you don't want that burden of proof to be beyond a reasonable doubt. OK. But "the preponderance of the evidence suggests that Clemens used steroids" is still a statement of evidence. "There's a 25% chance Clemens used steroids" is a statement of evidence.
"A rapist who can't keep his story straight and that nobody impartial has yet had reason to believe says that Clemens used steroids" is a kind of evidence I suppose.
Some guy on the internet says he knew guys who were "close to the Red Sox organization"* who believed (based on what evidence?) that Clemens used steroids is an even lower level of evidence than that ... which is pretty impressive.
* Rented an apartment near Fenway?
Not really. I believe that the religious people that wrote the divine texts were extremely intelligent and tried to put the world and its citizens into some semblance of order with the knowledge that they had at the time. They are excellent parables - stories - that help guide us as to how we should try to live our life if we are lost or unsure.
I don't want to spend my time quantifying the value of souls or HOF votes for character - that is another deity's full time job.
Without questioning the top down authority of any institution as we acquire knowledge, we would have no progress. To that, I assume that the church of baseball of the Middle Ages would prosecute the advances proposed by sabrmetricians as heretics!
Now there's someone you don't see mentioned every day in these threads.
GolfersWest.com has 3 retired HOF voters on their staff. I guess everyone plays golf when they retire. They are Jim Street, Kirby Arnold and Bob Sherwin. Check out their ballots, all anti-PED users.
Not really. I'm actually used to seeing solid candidates drop off after one ballot. They are usually pitchers - Dave Stieb, Bret Saberhagen, Orel Hershiser, Dwight Gooden, David Cone, Kevin Brown, etc. Centerfielders tend to get overrated by Hall of Fame electors.
So if I'm not mistaken, they have the same number of votes as The Sporting News. This election just keeps on giving....
Which ones?
Kirby Puckett and ???
So much stupid in there but Street gets the victory with this note about Lee Smith;
I don't really remember Smith as being a good fielder but maybe my memory is wrong. But that stat isn't even close to being convincing.
Edited to correct which writer was truly stupid.
I'm surprised it's not Ray King or someone else who averaged .5 innings per game. I guess in that sense, it's an accomplishment.
I never really formed an opinion, either. His double play to error ratio was 9:4, Maddux was 98-53, Kaat and Gibson were both just a little better than 1:1.
Jose is right about the level of stupid there. That being said, Arnold's ballot given that he's a "no proven steroids" guy is actually pretty good: Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Edgar Martinez, Fred McGriff, Jack Morris, Mike Piazza, Tim Raines, Curt Schilling, Lee Smith and Alan Trammell. Morris is of course an awful choice and Smith's not so hot either, but the rest are good given the limitation.
It is my belief that the HOF rules are being generally misinterpreted. Well, more uninterpreted, as the steroid-hysteria has created much more variation among the voters in how these rules are applied. While some evolution is inevitable, the current situation is radically discomfiting much of the electorate, putting voters at polar opposites in how they interpret the rules. The consensus is breaking down, which I think is a serious problem that is only just beginning to dawn on the HOF’s board of directors.
Due to this negligent oversight, the HOF rules are transmuting into a polymorphic state making the process increasingly untenable; they can mean what anyone wants them to mean. The rancor, confusion, and frustration are at unprecedented and increasing levels. There can be no rational discussions of candidates’ qualifications because the shiny peel of my apple is incomparable to the juiciness inside your orange; there is less and less agreement about what makes players worthy or unworthy for the HOF. Voters are not just arguing their preferences in assessing players, but are battling over how the rules should be interpreted. Clearly, the Hall needs to step up and clarify the rules.
Those rules specify six criteria to be considered by voters:
the player's record
playing ability
integrity
sportsmanship
character
contributions to the team(s) on which the player played
The Hall has left it entirely open to interpretation from there. Sooner or later that was going to cause trouble and that’s where we are now.
Well, fools rush in, as they say, so I’ll take a stab at interpreting what I think was intended by this set of rules. This interpretation is based upon some of my own assumptions, the historic environment in which they were generated 70+ years ago, as well as their meaning as evidenced by voting results.
1) Player’s record – This is basically the WAR question. How good was he? What does the record tell us?
2) Playing Ability – This is the Narrative question. Is there anything beyond the record to indicate he was better or worse than that? Was he feared/respected by other players and media? Did he win awards? Did circumstances beyond his control reduce his playing record from what it should have been?
3) Integrity – Did he gamble? This was THE question back in the reign of Judge Landis. More generally, Did he do anything to damage baseball’s public image? The media’s/Congress’ newfound outrage against PED users has made this a pertinent question for some candidates.
4) Sportsmanship – This is the popularity question. Did the fans like him? Did the media? Was he a Sport?
5) Character – This means character as related to professional baseball. Did he show up every day ready to help his team win? Did he stay in shape? Did he play hard? Was he sober? These days, this criterion is popularly misapplied to non-baseball related behavior. Note that the very first HOF class had men of fairly suspect personal morals. It’s clear to me that individual’s peccadilloes are not what Cooperstown wants voters to consider when assessing candidates.
6) Contributions to the team – This is the leadership question. Did he have a positive influence on his teammates? Back in the day, players traveled long distances in close quarters. Did he get along? What do his teammates say about him? Collecting lots of rings is often (mis)interpreted as evidence of this.
That’s how I see it. Anyway, it’s exactly what the HOF needs to do – define each criterion so that voters can work from the same base.
You want a simple system? Assume that these six criteria were intended to carry equal weight. (Or come up with your own weighting scheme, if you’re so inclined.) Rank each candidate 1 to 10 in every category. A “5” is an average hall of famer, so the average HOFer should score a total of 30 points.
Here’s Barry Bonds:
10 - Player's record: an all-timer
10 - Playing ability: terribly feared, IBB totals are off the charts. Was black-balled out of the game, record would have been more.
2 – Integrity: one of the guys at the center of the Game’s current black eye, although this status is not entirely of his making.
2 – Sportsmanship: often acted like a jerk, but nobody loves Goliath.
5 – Character: not quite what one thinks of as a “Team Player”. Fortunately, baseball doesn’t demand this as much as other sports.
4 - Contributions to the team(s) on which the player played: seen as selfish, but took a serious approach to the game. Generally a positive example for his teammates, AFAIK.
So I have him with 33 points. YMMV. He should be in, according to my interpretation of the Hall’s voting criteria.
This is the percentage of non-K outs each pitcher recorded himself as a PO or an assist, for every pitcher with 350+ saves, plus Maddux and Ray King:
Greg Maddux 14.9%
Mariano Rivera 13.8%
Ray King 11.7%
John Franco 10.8%
Billy Wagner 7.9%
D. Eckersley 7.7%
Trevor Hoffman 7.4%
Lee Smith 6.2%
Jeff Reardon 4.7%
Troy Percival 3.9%
That doesn't mean a damn thing except that Smith gave up more flyballs that Rivera does, but it at least demonstrates that you can't use simple defensive stats to say that Smith was especially good as a fielder. Realistically, I can't imagine that advanced stats say anything useful either. His career high in chances was 20, and he had 167 in his career. There's no way that sample size rises above randomness and noise.
Aside from gambling being foremost in their minds back then, I can't imagine this being any more wrong. "Sportsmanship" has nothing to do with popularity -- it's more related to the criteria of the Lady Byng Award in hockey. The ultimate sign of sportsmanship would be admitting that a call that went in favor of your team was incorrect, but it would also include not slamming an opposing player who was momentarily vulnerable. I don't think there's any reason to think "character" was supposed to be restricted as some sort of term of art within baseball -- if you don't think Cobb belonged, you're probably overestimating the morals of the day.
1) Player's record certainly can start with "the WAR question" (and end there for some), but I happen to think that there is room for a player to earn enshrinement by excelling in one facet of the game without necessarily accruing value (however defined) that places him in the top x% all-time. If you retire with the all-time career and single-season stolen base records, for instance, you get a plaque in my personal HOF even if you only have 43 WAR.
2) Playing ability is playing ability. Period. Did the player's skills stand out in ways that are not necessarily dependent on or reflected by his statistical record? That could form the basis for a narrative, but it's not the same thing. Narratives sometimes start with our impression of a player's raw ability (or a few specific manifestations of that ability), but more often center on things like post-season heroics.
6) Contributions to the team are contributions to the team -- on the field. Did the player help win games? Much closer to "the WAR question" than to "the leadership question" IMO. I'll certainly grant that lots of people want to inject intangibles into their HOF analysis, and maybe some of them justify that as "contributions to the team," but that's not the way I read the instruction.
I agree. The peak argument for Dawson is looking at his years as the Expo centerfielder. Dawson for me is borderline but on the right side, I supported him. Puckett is borderline (getting to the border on the strength of postseason heroics) where I would not have voted for him, but am not bothered by his induction.
Other borderline center fielders in the HOF are among the many questionable mistakes made from guys who had high batting averages in the 20's/30's.
On the other side, I don't see a clearly qualified HOF cfers who were kept out. Lofton and Edmonds are test cases here. I presume Griffey will go in on year 1, crowded ballot or not, with 95%+ of the vote.
Dawson's a weird case. He was actually elected to the Hall of Merit before the Hall of Fame, despite him being generally disdained in sabermetric circles for his stunningly low walk totals (Dawson averaged 27 unintentional walks per 162 games for his career) and his 1987 MVP being widely regarded here as among the worst ever. I get the sense that the Hall of Merit (somewhat reluctantly) elected him on the strength of his having been an excellent CF in Montreal. His HOF case, on the other hand, was pushed most strongly, it seemed to me, based on his years as a Cub, where he never played an inning in CF, with his 1987 MVP award being front and center in the discussion. Although my perception there might be biased by my living in Chicago, but Dawson is absolutely adored here and Chicago sportswriters were always very vocal supporters of his HOF candidacy.
When you update the post can you add a timestamp and perhaps add a note that this is through comment #242 in the thread, etc. I would also encourage you to post a google doc if you could.
The Ballot (9): Bonds, Clemens, Martinez, McGwire, Palmeiro, Piazza, Smith, Sosa and Trammell.
He looked big and lumbering especially late in his career, but I remember him being surprising athletic for such a big man. Sabathia also surprised people by fielding better than you'd expect from his build. Having said all that, this guy is an idiot for basing anything on a per game ratio when talking about a reliever or in this case consecutive game error less streak. There is a reason we consider strike outs or walks, etc per 9 innings pitched not per game.
Y U no have Biggio or Bagwell? Or Raines?
I'm really starting to feel the Bonds and Clemens may not even hit 40% when all is said and done, making their future election much less likely. I highly doubt 35% of the voters would withhold their vote for only one year, not to mention the volume of highly decorated "clean" players.
2) Playing ability is playing ability. Period. Did the player's skills stand out in ways that are not necessarily dependent on or reflected by his statistical record? That could form the basis for a narrative, but it's not the same thing. Narratives sometimes start with our impression of a player's raw ability (or a few specific manifestations of that ability), but more often center on things like post-season heroics.
You seem to be conflating #1 and #2 yourself. "Excelled in one facet of the game" would seem to be "playing ability" (which presumably also therefore usually results in a good playing record).
Post-season performance wouldn't seem to belong under playing ability at all -- either performance record (i.e. look at his performance in the postseason) or contribution to team.
Playing ability is pretty clearly the "peak" criterion -- at his best, he was one of the best ... unfortunately he got hurt. Ernie Banks is a near-perfect example of this (along with Greenberg and Kiner). Essentially this is the hit-by-bus criterion, with some room for "best fielding SS ever" but that guy's not getting in on peak anyway.
Contribution to team is the baffling one. I'd guess it's about "leadership". Also, given the era of origin, maybe it was even intended to include player-managers.
Integrity sportsmanship and character are almost impossible to separate, especially if we assume they are meant to be limited to actions within the sport itself. One of our HoF history buffs here once claimed that Landis' intent in including these clauses was more about including war heroes and other players of extremely high character not to keep out the scoundrels. Of course there wasn't much doubt about how Landis would have handled anybody he thought was a major scoundrel.
Well, it is difficult not to conflate playing ability and playing record, but the specific example that I used to illustrate my point was one of a player excelling statistically in one facet of the game. An overall playing record that arguably falls short, but an unmatched record in one aspect of the game.
Which is exactly why I cited it as a driver of "narrative" distinct from playing ability. You know, to counter Dan's interpretation that playing ability = narrative.
To all those who say the 'old' voters should have their rights/votes taken away... Why, because you suddenly figured out it's not a perfect system? It's been the same way for SEVENTY years... get over it.
I don't care that Clemens, Bonds et al cheated. Most of us would do the same thing if it meant making millions of dollars (I certainly would). And it was certainly great watching them play. What I care about is that it should be taken into account as far as getting into the HoF. They also did nothing to hurt their teams, and in the case of some like McGwire they weren't even technically cheating (since Bud the Scud was too chicken to put in drug testing earlier). Nonetheless, I feel like they had an advantage over other players who were "clean" and should not be eligible for entry to the HoF. They were only interested in making themselves richer, and if it helped their team win that was just a side effect. Every player faces the same moral challenges - I just don't think those who succumed to the pressure (or greed) should be rewarded.
Yes, it's a slippery slope, but I'm a damn good skier!!
He looked at the AL in 2012 and the NL in 2013.
I'll repeat this request.
And you know this how, exactly?
Also, as has been noted, Rose would not be eligible for the BBWAA ballot even if he were reinstated since his playing career ended more than 20 years ago. Voting for Rose is like voting for Gil Hodges.
I would say there is more evidence that Rose bet against his team than there is Clemens used steroids/hgh.
Seconded.
That's awesome.
Yeah, the time stamp would be good. I care less about the document. But it could be helpful.
Either way, thanks.
Which is exactly why I cited it as a driver of "narrative" distinct from playing ability. You know, to counter Dan's interpretation that playing ability = narrative.
No, Walt is right. Post-season performance is part of the playing record.
However, I disagree with Walt when he says:
"Playing ability is pretty clearly the "peak" criterion"
A player's peak is part of the playing record as well. We can see exactly when it was and we can pretty well measure it, similar to post-season performance.
"Playing ability" refers to the intangible aspects of performance. How good was he by reputation? What did people say about his play? If this runs counter to the Playing record, one must discern whether mistaken impressions of his quality are being expressed, or whether there is something meritorious that is not captured in the statistical record.
But he had Biggio, Murphy and Trammel as maybes there, so it's good to have the update.
Edit: Leokitty, at least, already had the update on Biggio, but not on Murphy.
Re: the CF issue: It's interesting. I suppose you can't strictly say that the HOF has been unfair to the position, because all of the no-brainers (Cobb, Speaker, DiMag, Mays, Mantle, Snider, soon Griffey) naturally are in, and then there's a bunch of questionable old guys (Combs, Roush, Carey, Averill, H. Wilson, L. Waner) who are there too. But they sure haven't been generous to center fielders for a few decades now. I feel confident that Puckett would have been elected even as a corner OF -- I think they loved the shape of his stats and his narrative. If you buy that, then the most recent candidate who needed "CF credit" to get in was Richie Ashburn, who retired in 1962.
Elected: Averill 45.1 WAR, Roush 43, Combs 40, H. Wilson 37.3, L. Waner 22 (barf)
Got or will get minimal support: Lofton 64.9, W. Davis 56.8 (that'd be the highest WAR of anyone with zero HOF votes), J. Wynn 53.1 (that'd be second on that same list), C. Lemon 52, Pinson 50.2, C. Cedeno 49.7, B. Butler 47, Lynn 46.7, Burks 46.3, B. Williams 45.9, Dale Murphy 42.6
So they used to induct borderline CF, but nowadays the voters don't even notice they exist. Granted, part of the issue seems to be that CF lends itself to an "all-arounder" type of game that the voters have trouble appreciating from anyone. (I expect Carlos Beltran to be further evidence of this, unfortunately.) Still, you can address that by giving adequate positional credit, and IMO they ain't doing it. It's the same thing at 2B and 3B, BTW. They can tell that Rogers Hornsby and Mike Schmidt were great, but that's about it. Surely Ron Santo and Lou Whitaker would have gone in easily if the voters concentrated on the question "where does this guy rank all-time at his position?" But that's not how they approach it.
Re: what the HOF criteria mean: I am not buying #234 either ;-) My personal inclination would be to think that "player's record, playing ability and contributions to the team" essentially mean the same thing, and "integrity, sportsmanship and character" essentially mean the same thing. Common sense (or at least the failed candidacies of Harvard Eddie Grant, Jim Abbott, etc.) would suggest that the great-player stuff dominates and the nice-guy stuff is secondary. But anyway, it doesn't much matter what any one of us thinks, when the larger point is that this stuff is deliberately vague and designed to be interpreted individually by each voter.
I don't think Willie Davis was even on the ballot when he was first eligible in 1985. His name never appeared in any of the voting results. I have no idea how he slipped through the cracks when even Jesus Alou and his -1.0 WAR made it onto the ballot (where he picked up one vote.) As far as I know he's the only 20th century player with 2,500 hits that never made it onto the ballot. (According to Baseball Reference, Jimmy Ryan, Lave Cross, George Davis, and Jim O'Rourke never made it onto the ballot either, but they were primarily 19th century players.)
Can anybody elucidate why Willie Davis wasn't on the ballot?
This is a perfectly reasonable approach to things- not the only reasonable approach, but I certainly regard it as respectable. My concern was with the notion that religious people accept the tenets of their faith "blindly without rational thought or question as to their purpose", which is not always or even often the case (at least with the faiths I am familiar with). Perhaps I misinterpreted the thrust of your comment, and my apologies if I did so.
Without questioning the top down authority of any institution as we acquire knowledge, we would have no progress.
To a certain extent, I agree. I do, however, think it's a bit strong to say that no progress can be made absent a meta-critique of existing assumptions and authorities. To apply Thomas Kuhn's analysis of the history of science, "normal science" continues and makes progress without critiquing its foundations; a paradigm shift occurs when those foundations are questioned and replaced. More broadly, I think an open mind is open in order that it may fasten on to the truth- including truths about reliable authorities- not open merely to flutter in the breeze.
Bringing this back to baseball, the exclusion of moral issues from consideration in HoF voting is an attractive idea, and would certainly greatly simplify matters. 'Elect them all, and let God (or the Cooperstown visitor) sort them out.' But there do remain those pesky character, integrity and sportsmanship clauses in the ballot language, so it is difficult to dismiss those who want to give substantial consideration to these issues. I think we either need to change the ballot language, or accept that there's going to remain a long, complicated and messy discussion and continued disagreement about how to apply the ethical clauses to individual players.
The HOF voters are a lesser-developed species, content to go on as they always have. When an impetus for change comes they thrash about, seeking a better path, looking for direction, trying to survive. In the normal course of things, lack of evolution leads towards extinction. (In this case, that might not be such a bad thing.)
I would say there is more evidence that Rose was a steroid user than some of these guys being blackballed. A steroid dealer used to sleep on his couch.
Yes on Morris, Mattingly and Murphy. Trammell will not be eligible until the 2020 Vets ballot.
Thank you. I was hoping Trammell could go from off the ballot in 2016 to Class of 2017 inductee.
I said "post-season heroics" not "post-season performance." What I was trying to get at was the kind of singular moment that can drive a narrative case. For example, Curt Schilling has a stellar post-season performance record; he also has the bloody sock game. I intended to capture the latter rather than the former.
Based on the history of guys with his performance in the BBWAA election, and what seems like his reputation within the game, I think he's a shoe-in with the Vets at some point.
That pretty much matches my thinking as well.
I think some on here are pessimistically overstating the certainty of Veterans Committee acting on Morris. The only thing we know for sure about the future of the veterans committee is we have no idea what they might do. Gil Hodges has long been thought to be a lock with the vets. They have a well earned reputation for difficulty reaching consensus. Old Reds like Morgan may support Concepcion. Others may have their preferred candidate.
I do think we can say that unlike the previous version, this incarnation of the veterans' committee will elect people on a fairly regular basis.
The problem for him if he reaches the Vets he's going to be up against a couple of guys who have the same case as him (lots of wins) but with significantly better secondary stats (ERA) in Kaat and Tommy John. The Vets would have to ask themselves why Morris if not those two guys, which they might plow through anyway, or make Morris wait in line behind them.
But if wins are your calling card, don't you need more of them than 254?
The other guys - Kaat and John - are knocking on the door of 300. Dennis Martinez and Andy Pettitte had nearly as many as Morris (245), and even Jamie Moyer had 269.
Hell, Morris's ability to win was used as a club to beat Blyleven over the head with, but it was _Blyleven_ who had more wins, 287 to 254.
Morris with "only" 254 wins and "only" 3800 innings simply needed to be better than he was, on a rate basis. Jim Palmer is the pitcher everyone thinks Morris is.
I think the perception is that Morris was the better pitcher between those three... Better winning percentage, higher percentage of complete games etc...In an era where the relievers were becoming increasingly more important, Morris was able to pitch the way that the old timers thought they pitched.
The other guys - Kaat and John - are knocking on the door of 300. Dennis Martinez and Andy Pettitte had nearly as many as Morris (245), and even Jamie Moyer had 269.
I would say exactly to all of this, which is why I don't think he's going to have a particularly easy path on the Vets committee. Plus after the cooling off period he wouldn't be eligible for the Vets until 2017, at which point we'll have had another 5 years for everyone to get comfortable with saber stats. The gist is that none of these guys are HOFers, and for good reasons.
I think that's all true, the question is whether it's enough. I'm not saying he's not/never going through on the Vets - I just don't think it will be a cakewalk. With the right mix of voters and an emphasis on getting some 80s guys into the Hall he could absolutely go, and maybe as soon as 2017. Or he could get a bad mix of voters with no one in the room going to bat for him specifically, plus it's 2017 now and wins have been more thoroughly discredited and everyone looks at ERA+ and he could have a tough time.
I don't think you need to go to the + for Morris to have problems. It's a fairly well known fact that his raw ERA would be the highest in the Hall of Fame if he ever gets elected (unless Wes Ferrell sneaks in there first).
The thing is that every serious Hall of Fame candidate from the Steroids Era easily bests Morris's raw ERA even without adjustments. Granted several of these pitchers didn't pitch as many innings as him (also as a result of era), but that is pretty damning to his case.
It's four years (it's the 2016 election, 2017 enshrinement), and three years since his last turn on the ballot.
And I'll repeat what I said earlier. Jack looks like a very easy choice for the Vet's committee, which has historically taken its lead from the BBWAA (as seen by the failure of Grich to even make the Expansion ballot the first time this committee met). Guys with Jack's kind of BBWAA support but who don't make it over the hump have been ushered in to the Hall by the Vets, with the single exception of Gil Hodges. Considering the narrative and reputation* that's built around Jack in just the last 5 years, I happen to think failure with the writers will only grow his stature, rather than reduce it. I hope I'm wrong, but I'd be stunned if Jack isn't shepherded into the Hall rather quickly by a Vet's committee.
* Inaccurate as they are.
Unless there's a Nixonian "Silent Majority" lurking out there, this is going to be awesome. Nobody elected in a field with so many worthy candidates. (And I speak as a "lifetime HOF ban on Bonds/Clemens/Palmeiro/McGwire" type -- there are STILL enough names to fill a respectable ballot: Schilling/Raines/Trammell/Martinez/Bagwell/Biggio/Piazza/Walker/Smith and oh what the hell, Morris too.)
It's gonna be a trainwreck, and I can't wait to see it.
Yeah, I mean, how many of the top five candidates per Repoz's gizmo are still viable? Just Biggio and Bagwell, who still need to make up some ground? Piazza, Morris, and Raines are barely in the ballgame.
Biggio and Bagwell are the only two with a real chance and they're hoping that "Gizmo" is undercounting.
It's not clear from what I've been able to find, but is the post-1972 voting committee going to change (barring health of course) or is it intended to remain the same? It hardly needs mentioning that with only 16 guys voting each vote carries a lot of weight.
I've wondered that myself, as well as if the nominating committee (I believe Primate Tracy Ringolsby was one of the members of that group) would remain intact.
Ringolsby was a member of the nominating committee in 2011. I didn't include their names because we can probably be fairly certain Morris will be nominated regardless. If that voting committee doesn't change, do we have HOF ballots for any of those writers? Would be interesting to know if any of those guys are Morris voters now, as they presumably would be in 2016 again. It's a fairly NL-dominant committee - the only guy in there who would seem to have any significant career against Morris would be Eddie Murray. And indeed in one of those crazy baseball coincidences it looks like Murray had more PAs against Morris than against any other pitcher in his career: in 105 PAs Murray went .304/.381/.511 against him. Perez had 10 PAs against Morris. I'm not an expert with BBRef's search function but I imagine Palmer and Morris matched up a few times.
Earlier it was posted that maybe the HOF would "fudge" some numbers so at least one guy makes it in. As of this point, with nearly 1/6 of the votes counted there is only Biggio who you could sort fudge to make it up to 75%. No way can you fudge a guy like Morris all the way from 62% up to 75% now. All this talk of fudge is making me hungry....
Or Mike Piazza...
In other news, Repoz is reporting a Julio Franco vote!
Yes to Franco, Mattingly, and Morris. No to Bagwell, Piazza, Bonds, and Clemens.
The positive for me Tim Raines looking like he'll pick up around 10% points. Also, not happy that Bagwell, Biggio, and Piazza didn't get in but all three are in good shape for future elections.
Hersch presumably refuses to vote for roiders because they would demean the Hall. But somehow his (presumably) smoochie vote for Franco isn't demeaning to the process of electing members to that very institution. Because I really cannot believe that he couldn't find a better candidate among Bernie, Lofton, McGriff, and Murphy. Nucking futs.
But at least he made his vote public. Would making all HOF ballots public improve the process? Or just be more fodder for the collective irritation.
I don't think I follow. When all is said and done, less than 20% of the voters will have revealed their ballots and the sample is most definitely not random. They could fudge Trammel and Smith in if they really wanted to.
DA
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