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Wednesday, December 25, 2013
The 2013 HOF Ballot Collecting Gizmo!
The 2014 HOF Ballot Collecting Gizmo!
Final: Jan.9 - 11:30 ~ 209* Full Ballots ~ (36.7%* of vote ~ based on last year) (*new ballot/pct. record!)
99.5 - Maddux
95.7 - Glavine
89.0 - F. Thomas
79.4 - Biggio
———————————
67.9 - Piazza
61.7 - Jack (The Jack) Morris
56.5 - Bagwell
54.5 - Raines
42.1 - Bonds
40.7 - Clemens
36.8 - Schilling
26.8 - Mussina
25.4 - E. Martinez
24.4 - L. Smith
22.0 - Trammell
15.8 - Kent
12.0 - McGriff
10.5 - McGwire
8.1 - L. Walker
7.2 - S. Sosa
5.7 - R. Palmeiro
———————————
4.8 - Mattingly
0.5 - P. Rose (Write-In)
Thanks to Butch, Ilychs Morales, leokitty & Barnald for their help.
As usual…send them in if you come across any ballots!
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http://www.post-gazette.com/sports/smizik-on-sports/2013/12/27/Bob-Smizik-My-Hall-of-Fame-ballot/stories/201312270168
Last time the BBWAA topped 8 names/ballot: 1982 (and before that, 1974, then 1964).
The average should come down some, but this ballot will have more names/ballot on it than any in a long, long, long time.
Whitaker and Jack will. I think Tram has to wait until the 2020 election.
I mean....Christ, I was a teenage Cubs fan at the time--I was watching him do that!--and it still seems like a misprint to me.
(Also: By WAR, Sammy Sosa ranks as only the 6th best player in baseball over that time:
1. Pedro
2. Randy Johnson
3. A-Rod
4. Bonds
5. ...Andruw Jones?!?!?!
6. Sosa
)
If he gets in this year, then it just means he's a second ballot guy like Larkin and Alomar, nothing wrong with that. If Biggio lingers a few years, that's a problem.
Even if you don't think he belongs in the Hall, for him to drop off the ballot would be sad. Oh well.
Larkin was a three-ballot guy.
I said a few years ago that the glut of talent Biggio was entering the ballot with, even with its steroid taint, might lead to a 2 or 3 year wait for him. I think he goes in next year.
There is a hitter too, I just can't recall.
Gary Sheffield is the top new hitter. It's slim pickings after that: Nomar, Brian Giles, Carlos Delgado, Darin Erstad, Cliff Floyd, Jermaine Dye
Sheffield is going to get dinged for PEDs, so there may be a chance for hitters like Piazza, Biggio, and Bagwell to make a push for 75% next year.
Smoltzie too.
Delgado, Sheffield, Nomah and Brian Giles are your only other serious candidates.
In 2016, the only reasonable new candidates are Ken Griffey Jr and Jim Edmonds.
I meant guys that should get more than 5%, but I realize with a stacked ballot and little appreciation for Giles, that's probably a long-shot too.
Giles had more WAR than Delgado or Nomar FWIW.
Plus, I wouldn't put it past him to celebrate his induction by streaking to Doubleday field.
It's funny to hear KG, Jr. referred to as a "resonable candidate". :)
Now that would be sweet! And he'd be bright orange. I think the real reason Khalil Greene broke down mentally was because Giles and Maddux would get on either side of him in the shower and pee all over him. That would drive anyone nuts!
I think Hoffman and Billy Wagner debut that year too. We all have our opinions about whether closers belong, but if you think that they do (and the voters seem to be of this mindset), then they've got to be considered reasonable candidates, especially Hoffman.
This seems like one of those "gut impression" things. Yeah, when you hear Brian Giles' name you don't think HOFer, but when you look at his numbers - 50 WAR in under 8000 PA - he seems like a reasonable fringe candidate. Of course he doesn't have enough career bulk or peak so I probably wouldn't vote for him, but there's a case there.
Hate relievers for the hof, but they are there, so for me to "endorse" a candidate, I think the starting point of the argument(for me) is "is this guy better than half of the number of relievers in the hall?" (other words there are 6 relievers in the hof right now, and the argument would be "is this guy one of the 3.5 best relievers of all time?" Both Wagner and Hoffman fail this simple test. Rivera passes and he gets in, which then makes the argument for Hoffman/Wagner, are they the 4th best reliever of all time? and they still fall short.
Note. I'm not arguing for in relation to other relievers in the hall, I'm arguing for historically at the time of the voting. Who knows by the time Hoffman or Wagner become eligible, Kimbrel might have passed them. It's why I'm comfortable with keeping Lee Smith out, and argue that Sutter is in there as much for his popularizing the splitter as he is for his work on the mound.
Well, no. I mean, I have access to his BBRef page too. But even a probing analysis into his career from a statheady bent only yields a probably not, as you indicate, so his actual candidacy in the "real world" surely cannot reasonably be called viable/serious/whatever descriptor you want to use. Of course, HOM might be a different story. I don't disagree with anything AG#1F says in 115.
Gizmo wise, this is undoubtedly the record. And it's extraordinarily doubtful Maddux runs the table.
But Rice stood out more among his contemporaries. He was leading the league in important categories while Giles was just another of many. That's the narrative and it might even be reasonable in deciding who is a HOFer. Ironically enough, they're both ranked 27th at their respective positions.
Does he explain Bonds? Because it seems odd to at least consider McGwire and Palmeiro and just disregard Bonds altogether.
Maddux doesn't surprise me; Glavine does. He's obviously a fully-qualified candidate, I'm just surprised that he hasn't fallen victim to the full-ballot problem from anybody yet.
He also says he would have liked to vote for Trammell, but basically omitted him as a lost cause (only a third of the vote last year in his 12th year, with just three years to more than double his vote totals on a crowded ballot; PeteAbe says Tram was only 12th on his list).
In the end, there are maybe some strategic choices he made that can be quibbled with, but it isn't an unreasonable ballot.
What I find most disconcerting about the voting trends is the very real possibility at one or both of Edgar Martinez and Larry Walker may fall off the ballot. Whether you think they a HoF'ers or not, or have them in you personal top ten or not, I think most people believe they have legitimate candidacies that deserve a longer look on a less crowded ballot. Given Abraham's logic regarding Bonds, it sure seems like he could have left Clemens off for the same reason and played a small role in keeping at least ONE of those two viable.
But you're not going to get a less crowded ballot unless you let people fall off.
http://www.dailyherald.com/article/20131227/sports/712279951/
Mike Imrem
Here is the list of players I voted for this year: Barry BondsRoger ClemensTom GlavineGreg MadduxMark McGwireJack MorrisMike PiazzaCurt SchillingSammy SosaFrank Thomas
Barry Rozner
My ballot retains all I voted for last year, plus 4 new candidates:Craig BiggioBarry BondsTom GlavineGreg MadduxJack MorrisMike MussinaTim RainesCurt SchillingLee SmithFrank Thomas
Bruce Miles
For this year's ballot, I could have checked 12 boxes. But I had to keep it to no more than 10, so here are my choices:Greg MadduxFrank ThomasTom GlavineCraig BiggioJeff BagwellJack MorrisLee SmithMike PiazzaTim RainesCurt Schilling
Scot Gregor
While the Baseball Writers' Association of America failed to elect any players to Cooperstown last year for the first time since 1996, that is going to change this year — at least I hope it is. First, here is my ballot:Jeff BagwellCraig BiggioTom GlavineGreg MadduxMike PiazzaTim RainesCurt SchillingFrank Thomas
Isn't it only five even if you count Eckersley fully a reliever (something which I think is entirely unreasonable given 13 seasons and 2,496 IP as a starter)? I think it's reasonable to consider Hoffman and Wagner both superior to Sutter and Fingers. The edge for Gossage is largely in IP, which is not a shortcoming for which Hoffman and Wagner could have any [edited to remove a double negative] influence on. It's a matter of relief pitcher usage changing. But even if they're only better than Sutter and Fingers, shouldn't you be looking at them more closely?
For most voters it is pretty easy:
300 wins, at a career 60% Winning Percentage
5 20 win seasons
2 CYAs, (2 2nds, 2 3ds)
Teamed with Maddux as part of the Braves Division winning juggernaut
WS MVP
10 ASG
Reputation as being clean, reliable and hard nosed, hardly ever missed a start
The only ones who doubt that Glavine is a clear, no-doubt Hall of Famer are hard-core WAR devotees. Of whom there are very few among guys who have an actual vote. And for some of them 81 WAR (and over 4,400 IP at 118 ERA+) probably carries a lot of weight
Really, you have to go looking for reasons not to make him one of your top 10. I'm sure someone will, but he will cruise in easily, as we should have always known he would.
Going from memory...Sutter, Fingers, Eckersley, Wilhelm, and Gossage..yep 5. I must have already put Rivera in in my head.
Lowest common denominator is not the standards I want from anyone getting my (theoretical) vote. As I said, Sutter is in as much for the splitter as he is for his on field performance. I'm a huge Wagner fan, and rate him above Hoffman personally, but not above Gossage, Wilhelm, Eck or Rivera. Technically Hoffman and Wagner would drop the standards for the average hof reliever. It's bad enough that we have to include relievers, but I don't want to see a lowering of the standards.
What an expense of verbiage in a waste of shame.
Who, here, is arguing that Glavine is not a worthy candidate. The argument is about who is better among players that seem more or less to be equal unless some fine sorting is resorted to. That's all. There's no reason to get hysterical.
Next year also adds some no-brainers (Unit, Pedro, possibly Smoltz), but at least by a first cut of WAR none of the others is particularly close to Walker or Martinez. Sheffield is close, but has the taint of PEDs to cloud his candidacy. Giles and Delgado are the next closest, and they aren't particularly close.
If you drop off 6-9 guys, and only add two-to-three no-brainers (to go with 2-4 guys who should get in or get close next year, and the ballot DOES get winnowed enough that guys like Walker, Martinez, or even a guy like Fred McGriff can begin to rebuild their support bases, or at least have better hope than this year of staying ON the ballot. For those guys, it is a matter of weathering the storm of the next 4-5 years (or until the voting process is tweaked), and trying to mKe a late push - which is of course impossible if they drop off this year.
Glavine is surly a HOFer, but a ballot with 10 names that doesn't include his certainly wouldn't qualify as indefensible. Of course that's more of a testament to how deep the field is then whether or not X is a HOFer.
WAR says that Glavine was a top 30 pitcher of all time, which makes him a no doubt HOFer. WAR also says Mussina and Schilling were more valuable (as pitchers). That's all people are saying, that Mussina and Schilling are arguably better than Glavine. Some people can't handle that for some reason.
Bonds 117.6 - he used because McGwire and Sosa had previously used
Clemens 103.3 - he used too, because Canseco told him he could reverse his decline
Maddux 81.6 - umpires cheated on his behalf - saved him the trouble
Schilling 64.4 - arrogance will hurt him
Mussina 63.8 - too consistent
Bagwell 63.8 - once had a conversation with Caminiti
Glavine 62.9 - "everybody loves Tom"
Rose 62.1 - The Gambler
F. Thomas 59.5 - "why do I need to wear a glove, when I'm not hitting?"
Walker 58.6 - Canadians have their own HOF
Trammell 57.5 - George Bell took his MVP award
E. Martinez 55.9 - no value for defense, could hit a little bit
Raines 55.6 - unfortunately was an Expo when he was at his best, so nobody was watching
Palmeiro 55.3 - pointed his finger at Congress, teammate Tejada did him in
Biggio 53.3 - seems to be getting some surprising love
McGwire 52.0 - 68 HR in one season,
Piazza 51.1 - best hitting catcher ever
Sosa 51.1 - not feeling the 1998 love anymore
Kent 45.4 - good, but this is a very tough class
McGriff 44.3 - a little juice would have made a big difference to his ranking
Mattingly 39.0 - bad back de-railed his career, will get managerial credit
J. Morris 38.5 - you had to be there supposedly, and I was - just a bad joke
L. Smith 25.4 - another back-up pitcher with HOF aspirations, love those saves !
I'm getting tired of saying this but Pete Rose isn't in the BBWAA era anymore. If he was made eligible tomorrow the Veterans Committee would be responsible for him. The writers will never get to vote for him unless they allow him to be considered AND change the ballot rules.
Add in the three managers and we could have a long ceremony this year.... (and possibly record number attendance as Atlanta fans and those who grew up on TBS go to the ceremony.)
From the article...
"I do my homework -- which does not include WAR or JAWS. Usually, but not always, it comes down to this simple test: If you have to think about the player, he doesn’t belong."
My question- if your homework does not include WAR or JAWS, then just what does it include? And if you usually vote only for players you don't have to think about, then why do you need to do any homework at all?
The ballot is so crowded with excellent players that this methodology - which certainly reads like it's terrible - produces an excellent ballot.
"Ask any American League manager in the 1980s whom they'd like to have the ball if they had one game to win and they'd say Morris."
When exactly did this unanimous view of Al managers develop? The Tigers finished 1st or 2nd in their division four times in the 1980's. Morris W/L record in those four years (From Sept. 1st each season):
1983- 2nd place, Morris goes 3-5 down the stretch.
1984- Opened 35-5, won the title going away, no big games until postseason because of the lead. Morris' post-season record in 1984- 3-0
1987- 1st in AL East, nips Toronto for the title on the last day. Morris goes 3-4 down the stretch, and loses only post-season start.
1988- 2nd in the division, Morris goes 3-1 down the stretch.
Morris pitched well in some games, got shelled in others. Clemens becomes Clemens in 1986, and Saberhagen hits the league in 1985. So if the Tigers weren't in the race until 1983, had a juggernaut which stomped on everyone regardless of who pitched in 1984, wins the division in 1987 despite Morris struggling, and is in the race only one more year, I ask again where exactly the view of AL managers in the 1980's that Morris is the one guy you would want starting a big game originate, and if it did, why?
Rozner has Bonds but no Clemens. Bizarre.
It didn't. Merely revisionist history.
http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2013/12/27/baffoe-how-not-to-make-a-baseball-hall-of-fame-voting-argument/?utm_medium=VPH&utm_source=topvph_sports&utm_campaign=517751
I expect Smith to outperform the gizmo but he'll still see a drop, and I think he's at the mercy of the VC. Trammell is similarly toast, Walker could fall off completely, and Edgar (who was just two votes behinds Bonds last year) is getting Tiant-jobbed, losing TWO-THIRDS of his support. Hate to see these three treated this way but...the voters have spoken.
BCI - isn't that Baffoe quoting Steve Simmons' ballot?
The most amazing thing about Sosa's run from 1998 to 2002 is that he put up 3 of the 6 biggest home run seasons of all time...but didn't lead the league in any of those seasons.
His 66 in 1998 was second behind McGwire's 70.
His 63 in 1999 was second behind McGwire's 65.
His 64 in 2001 was second behind Bonds' 73.
The two years in that span (1998-2002) that he DIDN'T hit 60+ HR (2000 with 50, 2002 with 49) are the only times he led the league in HR in his career.
Provided, of course, that attention is focused on the honorees and everyone's anger about how ###### up the process supposedly is.
Player WAR WAR7 JAWS Jpos Ov/Un Pos % Ov/Un Pos1 Barry Bonds 162.5 72.8 117.6 53.2 64.4 121%
2 Roger Clemens 140.3 66.3 103.3 61.4 41.9 68%
3 Greg Maddux 106.8 56.3 81.6 61.4 20.2 33%
4 Mike Piazza 59.2 43.1 51.1 43.1 8 19%
5 Jeff Bagwell 79.5 48.2 63.8 54 9.8 18%
6 Frank Thomas 73.6 45.3 59.5 54 5.5 10%
7 Alan Trammell 70.3 44.6 57.5 54.7 2.8 5%
8 Curt Schilling 79.9 49 64.4 61.4 3 5%
9 Tim Raines 69.1 42.2 55.6 53.2 2.4 5%
10 Mike Mussina 83 44.5 63.8 61.4 2.4 4%
11 Tom Glavine 81.4 44.3 62.9 61.4 1.5 2%
12 Rafael Palmeiro 71.8 38.8 55.3 54 1.3 2%
13 Edgar Martinez 68.3 43.5 55.9 55 0.9 2%
14 Larry Walker 72.6 44.6 58.6 58.1 0.5 1%
15 Mark McGwire 62 41.9 52 54 -2 -4%
16 Craig Biggio 64.9 41.6 53.3 57 -3.7 -6%
17 Sammy Sosa 58.4 43.7 51.1 58.1 -7 -12%
18 Fred McGriff 52.6 36 44.3 54 -9.7 -18%
19 Luis Gonzalez 51.5 33.8 42.7 53.2 -10.5 -20%
20 Jeff Kent 55.2 35.6 45.4 57 -11.6 -20%
21 Lee Smith 29.6 21.1 25.4 34.4 -9 -26%
22 Don Mattingly 42.2 35.7 39 54 -15 -28%
23 Kenny Rogers 51.4 35.6 43.5 61.4 -17.9 -29%
24 Moises Alou 39.7 27.5 33.6 53.2 -19.6 -37%
25 Jack Morris 44.1 32.8 38.4 61.4 -23 -37%
26 Ray Durham 33.7 25.7 29.7 57 -27.3 -48%
27 Armando Benitez 17.7 16.6 17.2 34.4 -17.2 -50%
28 Mike Timlin 19.6 14 16.8 34.4 -17.6 -51%
29 Paul Lo Duca 17.9 18.7 18.3 43.1 -24.8 -58%
30 Hideo Nomo 21.1 22.8 22 61.4 -39.4 -64%
31 Eric Gagne 11.9 12 12 34.4 -22.4 -65%
32 Richie Sexson 17.9 18.8 18.4 54 -35.6 -66%
33 Todd Jones 10.9 11.3 11.1 34.4 -23.3 -68%
34 Sean Casey 16.3 16.3 16.3 54 -37.7 -70%
35 Jacque Jones 11.5 13.2 12.4 53.2 -40.8 -77%
36 J.T. Snow 11 12.8 11.9 54 -42.1 -78%
The thing that jumps out looking at it this way is how low Biggio and Glavine rank.
I think the other thing is it's fairly obvious that 1-6 belong in any PED tolerant version of the HOF, but there is plenty of wiggle room to make a case for juggling the rankings 7 thru 16
Only 3 other players in history have had their best league leading HR total be no better than the 4th best single season total of their careers.
edit: Since 1920. A bunch of deadball era guys led with a low total and then post 1920 hit a lot more which didn't lead the league.
He basically went from Raul Mondesi to Willie Stargell. The only other player who I can think of who had a similar transformation, although probably not as extreme, is Jack Clark
Man-Ram is one of them.
Dwight Evans and Eddie Murray's shared HR title in 1981 was tied for only the 7th highest of Evans career and tied for the 13th highest of Murray's. :-)
Probably shouldn't get my hopes up yet though,
I was thinking along those same lines. I've never been to Cooperstown, but my brother and I were planning on going one of these years. If Maddux, Glavine, Thomas, Biggio, and maybe Piazza all make it, plus La Russa, Cox, and Torre, this might have to be the year. I'm not sure we'll ever see a HOF class like that again.
Tier 1) Bonds, Clemens
Tier 2) Maddux
tier 3) Piazza, Bagwell, Thomas, Schilling, Mussina , Glavine
Tier 4) The rest
I'm pretty sure for pitchers the standard deviation is tighter thus much harder to get the bigger numbers. Hard to keep Maddux out of tier 1. He's certainly inner-circle, but I think he's in the lower end of inner-circle.
http://blogs.mercurynews.com/kawakami/2013/12/28/my-very-imperfect-hall-of-fame-ballot-greg-maddux-frank-thomas-barry-bonds-and-many-others/
He also mentions that he wanted to add Mussina and Kent and considered removing Biggio and Raines for them but decided not to.
But didn't consider removing Morris.
At least, as others of said, Morris won't be taking up any ballot spots next year, one way or the other.
Tim Kawakami is quickly becoming one of my most anticipated HOF votes of the year. Not because he displays any insight or wisdom in his ballots- far from it. Yes, his ballot is fine, as is almost every ballot this year. But his articles are just inane. Every year Kawakami adopts a new persona- he's like the girl you knew who chased every fad, so she was completely and ridiculously different every time you saw her. This year Kawakami cites that he has been a HOF voter for "several years." I guess three years equals "several" to him, since that's how many ballots he has cast. Here are the yearly themes:
2012 (1st year)- Kawakami was a new age, Bill James-loving, feel-good rookie voter who drew heavily on input from his "HOF consultant" friend from Northwestern.
2013 (2nd year) Kawakami becomes a fire-breathing, I'm my own damn man, relativist who channels his inner Murray Chass and makes his own calls and if you don't like it, too bad.
2014 (3rd year)- Kawakami transforms into a "Hey, it's just a vote by imperfect people from an imperfect system- lighten up!" free spirited HOF voting hippie.
Already looking forward to Kawakami's ballot next year to see what will he become next...
If last year's bias holds, Biggio is looking like he might barely skirt the bar, while Piazza is very unlikely to make it.
Also, note that Morris is running +5 over last year's gizmo. If he can get a +5 from the secret ballots too, he is likely just short. But he is not out of this thing yet.
Also, Raines is doing worse than last year. Not surprising, of course.
I still haven't seen a link to a single voter who has gone from not voting for Morris to the pro-Jack position (but have seen a couple that removed Jack after years of voting for him), so I'm not sure the Gizmo is telling any positive tale.
Until I see any evidence to the contrary, I'm sticking to he's out of this thing.
http://www.morningjournal.com/sports/20131228/jim-ingrahams-ichart-explaining-one-hall-of-fame-ballot
went out for drinks with him 20 years ago on the West Coast along with a mutual friend, seemed like a cool guy. hmm, wish I had more to bring to the table than that.
http://www.suntimes.com/sports/baseball/whitesox/24608253-574/mcgrath-my-hall-of-fame-ballot-8-men-in.html
Obvious negatives here, but at least this guy acknowledged that Schilling and Mussina were deserving. He did not do the comparison to Glavine (I have Glavine third of the trio), but his argument was in the same realm.
In a way, the 5% line is kind of like the BBWAA-election replacement level. I never would have thought of Sosa being a replacement level candidate. Strange days.
With Glavine at 100% after 10%...what must he do to fall below 75%?
72.2% of the remaining 90% of the ballots would put him right at 75%.
If the BBWAA does in fact induct 4 players, it would be the first time they've done that since 1955.
* Huge Braves (and Glavine) fan and think that joke is way overdone. However, it was just sitting there.
(cokes all around)
Bagwell, Biggio, Bonds, Clemens, Glavine, Maddux, Piazza, Raines, Schilling and Thomas.
http://www.morningjournal.com/sports/20131228/jim-ingrahams-ichart-explaining-one-hall-of-fame-ballot
Read the article if you want a confusion-induced migraine. My favorite part is his dismissing advanced metrics in making calls on "all-time greats", but then citing baseball-reference's most comparable players (Palmer, Marichal, and Carl Hubbell) in justifying his vote for Mike Mussina...
And his tossing in Morris' averaging 16 wins a year with a 3.60 ERA in the '80's was a nice touch. If you average an ERA of 3.60 and average winning 16 games a year, doesn't that indicate that maybe the teams you pitched for scored a bunch of runs for you?
It'll be a return to those Veterans Committee selections of all the hitters from the 1930s. "Gosh, you know, Jim Bottomley was not only the slickest fielding first baseman you've ever seen, but just look at his numbers! He hit .360...with power! And look at Chuck Klein--.386 with 40 homers!" etc etc etc...we all know the story.
I think whatever sort of "Veterans Committee" that exists in the future will make the same mistakes. They'll see Luis Gonzalez, see ".325 with 57 homers?!?!" and boom. "Moises Alou? .355 with 30 homers?!?! These guys were all superstars!!!"
The further in time we actually get from the Sillyball Era, the more we'll be stuck with just the numbers. And, heck, it'd be hard to blame them!
That assumes that the ballots we have are a random sample of the total population, which is not true.
http://www.morningjournal.com/sports/20131228/jim-ingrahams-ichart-explaining-one-hall-of-fame-ballot
I'd like to get one of either Bagwell or Piazza over the line too. Because five is better than four in clearing the logjam, and because once a Sillyball era slugger goes in I think it clears the way for voting for others not named "Bonds."
Bagwell. Biggio. Bonds. Clemens. Maddux. Martinez. Piazza. Raines. Thomas. Walker....and that's that.
Not a misprint. Young Andruw was a defensive god.
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