This is the first take last year, as of Christmas day:

The 2014 HOF Ballot Collecting Gizmo!

Updated 3:25 ~ 37 Full Ballots ~ (6.5% of vote ~ based on last year)

100 - Maddux
100 - Glavine
83.8 - Biggio
83.8 - F. Thomas
———————————
70.3 - J. Morris
70.3 - Piazza
67.6 - Bagwell
51.4 - Raines
45.9 - Bonds
45.9 - Clemens
40.5 - Schilling
32.4 - Mussina
24.9 - McGriff
21.6- L. Smith
18.9 - Kent
18.9 - Trammell
10.1 - E. Martinez
10.1 - R. Palmeiro
8.1 - L. Walker
5.4 - McGwire
———————————
2.7 - Mattingly
2.7 - Sosa

Whither John Smoltz?

Who didn't vote for Johnson?

I like Pedro more than I like Randy but Randy should get more of the vote than Pedro. It must be some steroid whispers about him, either that or strategic voting.

Obviously 25 ballots is such a small sample size as to be basically meaningless, but man would that be awesome if these early returns held up. 5 inductees (including 2 backloggers!), plus a big jump for Bagwell that sets him up nicely for next season. Big jumps for Raines (puts him in line for 2016 or 2017 election) and Schilling (puts him on a clear path) and even big jumps for Bonds and Clemens! But now I'm just dreaming.

Donuts to Dollars, the only two getting in are RJ and Pedro

Yes, like others, I am shocked at Smoltz's totals vs. Schilling and Moose.

Big thanks to Ryan Thibs

For anyone who hasn't seen it, Ryan lists the individual voters with their ballots here: link Repoz has a few more than are listed at Ryan's site.

Who didn't vote for Johnson?

Garry Brown.

#3, #4: It was Garry Brown that left him off, and his ballot only has 6 names, so we can rule out the latter explanation. (He did find room for Edgar though.)

Edit: Coke to dlf.

Donuts to Dollars, the only two getting in are RJ and Pedro

Sadly, that's my guess as well. Biggio and Smoltz will probably go in the following year with Griffey.

I'd be willing to throw a BBRef wager that Biggio goes in. There's really no reason to think a guy who came up two votes short during his second year on the ballot is going to fall short his third year on what is a slightly less crowded ballot. It simply doesn't add up.

The only way I can see it happen is if more of the full-ballot types go the Olney route and don't send in ballots. I think the fellow who removed him from his ballot earlier this week will be a true outlier.

My initial feeling was Smoltz would come in around 50 percent, ahead of Schilling and Moose but short of election. He could obviously surprise if his early support is representative.

I would be surprised if Biggio doesn't make it as he was so close last year and this year is a weaker field with Morris gone (freeing up a slot on many ballots), plus Maddux/Glavine/Thomas getting in. We also saw Rafael Palmeiro removed and I suspect Sosa is going to drop down to the sub 5% level as well. Wouldn't be shocked if the rest of the PED crew (Clemens, Bonds, McGwire) continue to lose support as more voters go 'strategic' and give up on getting them in, at least until the ballot overcrowding is cleared up.

If 5 made it in I'd be very, very shocked though. Piazza I figure will get close but no cigar (near 70%) and I hope Raines moves up to the 60% range so he has a shot in 2016/2017 as those are his last 2 chances. Each name that gets crossed off this year will help guys like Raines, Piazza, and Bagwell get in during the next 2 years. For other backlog guys I figure Schilling will get in someday but might have a long wait with Mussina in the same boat. I see Jeff Kent as the long shot candidate to sneak in via writers near the end of his 10 years.

Deleted to avoid exposing my lack of reading comprehension.

Obviously too soon to tell but I wonder if the voters are paying attention to the 10-year limit and going to give Raines a massive boost this year. He probably has to stick around that 64% to have much of a chance over the next two years.

I fully expect one of Smoltz or Biggio to get in, I doubt both do but that's just because they never elect 4 at one go in the current system.

As I think about it, anybody who voted for both Glavine and Morris last year -- and that must have been at least 54% of the vote -- should be a very good bet to go for Smoltz this time.

Of the full ballots that went Maddux, Glavine, Schilling, no Morris, no Mussina (or swap Schilling/Mussina), they will be choosing between that third pitcher and Smoltz (other two freed up votes going to Unit & Pedro). I'll guess he gets at least half of that vote. I don't have a clue how big that group is.

I find it hard to believe that Kent will make it. I suppose once Biggio and Trammell are gone, he'll make some progress but will probably stagnate/drop when Chipper and Jeter hit the ballot. I'm pretty confident he'll be too far away to make up that much ground in the time allotted.

Never know, maybe the voters will be strongly affected by the 10-year thing.

Yes, like others, I am shocked at Smoltz's totals vs. Schilling and Moose.

I'm not. Smoltz is more of a "name" than the other two, especially Mussina who has always been overlooked. And he got a lot of exposure when Glavine, Maddux and Cox got in last year, and remains in the public eye as a broadcaster.

From the perspective of the Non-Sabr voter, who are the vast majority of voters, Smoltz is Curt Schilling with a CYA and three years as an "elite closer" thrown in. Easy to see why a casual voter who is not otherwise overawed by the bloody sock would prefer him.

Of the full ballots that went Maddux, Glavine, Schilling, no Morris, no Mussina (or swap Schilling/Mussina), they will be choosing between that third pitcher and Smoltz (other two freed up votes going to Unit & Pedro). I'll guess he gets at least half of that vote. I don't have a clue how big that group is.

The spreadsheet is in #8. :)

I calculate:
21 with Maddux/Glavine/Schilling/no Mussina/no Morris
9 with Maddux/Glavine/Mussina/no Schilling/no Morris
19 with Maddux/Glavine/Schilling/Mussina/no Morris

The Pete Rose write-ins still bother the crap out of me. Why not Shoeless Joe Jackson? Neither of them played in the last 25 years.

Sorry, forgot to check if the ballots were full. #17 should read:

16 full ballots with Maddux/Glavine/Schilling/no Mussina/no Morris
6 full ballots with Maddux/Glavine/Mussina/no Schilling/no Morris
16 full ballots with Maddux/Glavine/Schilling/Mussina/no Morris

Great to have Gizmo back! May our ballot collection efforts be fruitful yet again...

Thanks DA. I forgot that most of those full ballots will also have Thomas so probably most of those voters won't have to choose between Schilling and Smoltz but rather betwee Smoltz and everybody they didn't vote for so even more likely he picks up those votes.

Doesn't seem like a lot but could be 25 votes or something, nearly 5% of the total.

Ryan, very cool spreadsheet and nice to see you tracking votes gained/lost.

I was gonna suggest adding the boycotters but thinking about it more you've made the right decision not to. They are hurting the people they (would have) voted for but it's one out of the numerator and the denominator which is an effect of nearly zero, certainly a long way from one.

Who is on the not-in-the-HOF, and not going in, team, and could they beat 2/3 of HOF teams?


CF Kenny Lofton
SS Trammell
3B - A-Rod (cheating? Should he be at SS?)
LF - Bonds
1B - McGwire
DH - Edgar
RF - Sosa
C - Posada?
2B Grich (Whitaker?)

P Clemens
P Kevin Brown
P Mussina
P Kaat

Heavy recency bias because that's what I know, and 5 players are on there because of steroids, but I think that team could take on most HOF teams and do some serious damage.

Don't forget Shoeless Joe and Pete Rose.

@Walt - It's a tough call, but I figured that if I'm not going to try to account for the voters who've passed away in the last year (I didn't keep a list), I shouldn't do anything with those who've chosen to abstain this year, other than list them in the top right cell of the sheet.

As I did last year (see Rennie's Post No. 1), here's a freeze frame of the Gizmo after Day 1. This information will only become relevant next year at this time:

The 2015 HOF Ballot Collecting Gizmo!

Updated 8:00 ~ 25 Full Ballots ~ (4.4% of vote ~ based on last year) ~ As usual…BBWAA ballot digging is welcome!

100 - P. Martinez
96.0 - R. Johnson
84.0 - Smoltz
80.0 - Biggio
80.0 - Piazza
————————————
72.0 - Bagwell
64.0 - Raines
56.0 - Clemens
56.0 - Bonds
56.0 - Schilling
28.0 - Trammell
24.0 - Mussina
16.0 - McGwire
16.0 - E. Martinez
16.0 - Lee Smith
12.0 - L. Walker
12.0 - Sheffield
8.0 - Sosa
8.0 - McGriff
8.0 - Kent
————————————-
4.0 - Garciaparra
4.0 - Pete Rose (McWrite-In)

Presuming you're just talking BBWAA, bookbook, those are safe calls except it's too early on Mussina. But I suspect some of those guys will eventually get in through a Vet's Committee.

What's the biggest class ever voted in? You could definitely see 5 or 6 this year with some luck but I think it will just be Pedro, Smoltz, and Johnson

Yaaaaaaaaaaaaay, it's the Great Annual Gizmo Disgronificator Thingamajiggy Doodadatron!

Boy, I can't wait to see how many votes Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Mark McGwire, and Sammy Sosa are going to get this year!!!!!!!

I plan on running a mock ballot after the HoM balloting wraps up

bookbook - Sad thing is, you could make yet another great non-HOF team from guys who didn't even make your list - Rose, Shoeless Joe, Manny, Palmeiro, Edmonds, Kent, Walker, Sheffield, Scott Rolen, etc. It might be light on pitchers and catchers (Freehan? Munson?), but still...

"Who didn't vote for Johnson?"

"It was Garry Brown that left him off, and his ballot only has 6 names, so we can rule out the latter explanation. (He did find room for Edgar though.)"

He should have his johnson taken away.

People are holding hope for Biggio saying he only needs two additional votes, but that ignores losing votes from Olney and any others who are sitting election out as a protest. Believe there is at least one other voter doing the same.

I don't expect it, but getting Biggio and one other offensive player (Piazza) off the ballot this year is crucial to clearing log jam to enable Raines to get in. Also, could help the Bonds & Clemens types to increase vote as some are leaving the off crowded ballots assuming they have no chance. If there are 12 viable HOF's on ballot instead of 17 it become easier to include those guys. They need to get over 50% real soon to have a chance of clearing 75% before 10 year axe falls.

People are holding hope for Biggio saying he only needs two additional votes, but that ignores losing votes from Olney and any others who are sitting election out as a protest. Believe there is at least one other voter doing the same.

It doesn't ignore it. As I said, the only way I can see him falling short is there is a spate of his supporters who follow Olney's lead and sit this one out*. I just see no reason to think there will be a lot of voters who supported Biggio last year taking him off this year (though two have done so at this point), and based on strong historical precedent he should be expected to pick up quite a few votes from guys who left him off last year.

In 2010, Bert got 74.2 percent of the vote and Robby Alomar received 73.7 percent.

The following year, in his 14th on the ballot, Bert added 63 votes. Alomar added 126 on his second (though in Robby's case, there was surely some anti-expectoration sentiment that factored into his 2010 showing).

The historical trends are just really strongly in Biggio's favor, particularly given the fact that this ballot isn't any stronger than the 2014 one. Guys on the verge of election pick up a lot of votes. There's no real cause to think Biggio will defy that trend.

* Keep in mind, a lost vote from someone not voting this time isn't nearly as significant as a no vote from a 2014 supporter.

The Pete Rose write-ins still bother the crap out of me. Why not Shoeless Joe Jackson? Neither of them played in the last 25 years.

A couple of questions.

Write in votes don't actually count, right? I assume the HOF mails out the list of eligible and those are the only names that they'll count totals for. Otherwise you could organize a massive write-in vote for Doug Dascenzo and get him elected.

Given that, what do the ballots actually look like? Are they 10 lines and the guys write in all of the names? Why aren't they like the All Star ballot with a list of names and check boxes?

Scott Rolen

We should give Rolen some time to get on the ballot and fall off again, before losing hope altogether :)

Rolen's career is similar overall to Ron Santo's, which is both good for his actual merit and bad for his BBWAA chances …

Why aren't they like the All Star ballot with a list of names and check boxes?

This question cannot be answered because it makes a flawed assumption. Google image search: hall of fame ballot.

According to Ryan Thibs' counter last year (which got 52% of the ballots), there were 40 people who had Morris but not Biggio. Of course, only 15 of those had a full ballot. All 15 also voted for Glavine and Maddux. Hopefully a couple of those replace Morris with Biggio, although they could just as easily replace him with Smoltz (assuming Maddux and Glavine are replaced by Martinez and Johnson). Biggio could pick up a couple of votes from people who voted Morris/no Biggio yet didn't have a full ballot, but that would require them to vote for Biggio simply because he got so close.

I think Biggio will get in (barely), but, in my opinion, it's far from a sure thing. I would not be surprised to see him end up at 73 or 74%.

Biggio could pick up a couple of votes from people who voted Morris/no Biggio yet didn't have a full ballot, but that would require them to vote for Biggio simply because he got so close.

And that's exactly the sort of simplistic thinking someone who votes for Morris, but not Biggio, without a full ballot engages in.

So, how many write ins does Morris get? I sort of miss not reading his name in every HOF post.

I sort of miss not reading his name in every HOF post.

Well that makes one of us.

It was Garry Brown that left him off, and his ballot only has 6 names, so we can rule out the latter explanation. (He did find room for Edgar though.)

He's the current leader for "craziest ballot" but there's plenty of time for someone to pass him.

42. Monty Posted: December 18, 2014 at 12:27 PM (#4864631)

It was Garry Brown that left him off, and his ballot only has 6 names, so we can rule out the latter explanation. (He did find room for Edgar though.)



He's the current leader for "craziest ballot" but there's plenty of time for someone to pass him.

Hey! If you are going to reference Murray Chass go ahead and include his name.

He's the current leader for "craziest ballot" but there's plenty of time for someone to pass him.

I suppose a score of 40 is worse than 55, but they are both F-. Brown leaving 4 blank spots starts off with a base score of 60. Leaving off Johnson deducts another 5 points.

Hey! If you are going to reference Murray Chass go ahead and include his name.

I was thinking more of Corky Simpson.

This question cannot be answered because it makes a flawed assumption. Google image search: hall of fame ballot.

Yes, I actually asked what they look like right before the part you quoted.

So, based on the image search, it seems that write-ins aren't even technically possible. It's a 9 man ballot (if Pete Rose is the "10th") with some extra writing on it.

Leaving off Johnson deducts another 5 points.

I would make leaving off Johnson a much bigger deduction than a blank spot. Johnson is eminently and obviously HOF-quality no matter what standard one uses, whereas a lot of other guys are "only" obviously HOF worthy if you start to take advanced stats (i.e. WAR) into account, which the vast majority of voters are probably not. I can't even imagine what stretch of logic leads a guy to leave Johnson off, let alone while voting for the other guys he voted for, other than that he simply forgot or wants attention. Either way he's suspect.

CF Kenny Lofton
SS Trammell
3B - A-Rod (cheating? Should he be at SS?)
LF - Bonds
1B - McGwire
DH - Edgar
RF - Sosa
C - Posada?
2B Grich (Whitaker?)

P Clemens
P Kevin Brown
P Mussina
P Kaat

You can add Tiant to round out your rotation, and Dwight Evans would give Sosa a fight for that RF slot (Evans wins both WAA and WAR, and lest we think he's skating by on defense only, of the two of them, Evans is actually the one who led his league in OPS – twice!).

Dwight Evans would give Sosa a fight for that RF slot

As would Walker and Sheffield.

As would Walker and Sheffield.

That is one deep roster of HOF-worthy players who haven't gotten the due (or at least the conversation) they deserve – at just one position. Sad.

Not including anyone still playing

C - Ted Simmons
1B - McGwire
2B - Grich
SS - Bill Dahlen - Trammell will likely get in through the VC with Whitaker before Dahlen does
3B - Pete Rose (Darrell Evans, Heinie Groh)
LF - Bonds
CF - Jim Edmonds (next year eligible, otherwise Reggie Smith)
RF - Larry Walker
DH - Edgar

P Clemens
P Kevin Brown
P Wes Ferrell
P Bret Saberhagen (Mussina is going to get elected someday)
P Rick Reuschel or Dave Stieb

If you're including Vet's Committee probables, then a lot of those guys on these lists won't be snubbed forever.

Any of these lists are going to be tilted toward the more recent. I doubt it takes Barry Bonds as long to get into the Hall of Fame as it did Arky Vaughan.

Who is on the not-in-the-HOF, and not going in, team, and could they beat 2/3 of HOF teams?
. . .
C - Posada?

Seems a bit unfair to not let Jorge get on the ballot and count his votes before ruling him out. I'm not saying Posada is guaranteed to make it, but with proper positional adjustment and Core Four credit, he becomes an interesting candidate. Not sure how much of a look he'll get if the ballot glut continues or worsens, but he's also the type of candidate who might do well if there is a viable Veterans Committee process.

a lot of those guys on these lists won't be snubbed forever

Grich can't even get past the screening committee

this signed into law today
#thanksobama

"The “Designer Anabolic Steroid Control Act,” H.R. 4771, which passed the U.S. House of Representatives back in September and the U.S. Senate just last week, will close a loophole often exploited by steroid manufacturers to sell products that claim to be all-natural muscle builders when they, in fact, contain chemically altered versions of anabolic steroids. The bill will immediately place 27 new designer anabolic steroids on the DEA’s list of controlled substances as well as authorize the DEA to temporarily schedule new designer drugs on the controlled substances list, which will allow the DEA to identify and list new chemicals more easily."

SS - Bill Dahlen - Trammell will likely get in through the VC with Whitaker before Dahlen does

If the HOF doesn't change the way the Veterans' Committees are set up, Dahlen is eligible next year and given that he's part of an era that's pretty well picked over with no obvious omissions other than him, I would think he has a pretty good chance of getting elected before Trammell even falls off the BBWAA ballot.

Grich can't even get past the screening committee

I didn't say all.

he's part of an era that's pretty well picked over with no obvious omissions other than him

You could say that the last couple times they met also. Deacon White and Joe Gordon aren't bad picks but they're not as good as Dahlen.

Bravo to whoever voted for Pedro, Randy, Smoltz, Biggio, Piazza, Bagwell, Raines, Trammell, Mussina, Walker. Not quite the same ten I would pick but a darned fine ballot nonetheless.

Edit: Apparently it was Evan Grant. Maybe I should actually follow Repoz on Twitter.

Bravo to whoever voted for Pedro, Randy, Smoltz, Biggio, Piazza, Bagwell, Raines, Trammell, Mussina, Walker.

That's Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News.

@56 and 58: Would love to see Dahlen, Glasscock, and Charlie Bennett make it someday among the olde tyme guys. All well over the line (YMMV).

Edited to refer to post 56 and 58.

A preliminary, nearly complete ballot from Mike Vaccaro, NY Post: Johnson, Pedro, Smoltz, Piazza, Bagwell, Bonds, Clemens, Schilling, Raines.

Vaccaro plans to fill the tenth slot with Biggio, Mussina or Mattingly.

Last year, Vaccaro voted for Morris and Mussina, and did not vote for Raines, Biggio or Mattingly. The Post published that ballot one day before the announcement.

I have a sportswriter friend (not a voter yet) who is sure that Smoltz will sail in this year. I was skeptical given Schilling's performance but it looks like he's going to be right.

A preliminary, nearly complete ballot from Mike Vaccaro, NY Post: Johnson, Pedro, Smoltz, Piazza, Bagwell, Bonds, Clemens, Schilling, Raines.

Vaccaro plans to fill the tenth slot with Biggio, Mussina or Mattingly.

If he were to put Biggio in the 10th spot, that's about as perfect a ballot as I could hope for (for those that vote for Bonds/Clemens).
MAYBE I'd vote for McGwire over Schilling, but we're talking about the 10th spot on the ballot for me.

I have a sportswriter friend (not a voter yet) who is sure that Smoltz will sail in this year. I was skeptical given Schilling's performance but it looks like he's going to be right.

I think folk here underestimate how much the writers value narrative. He touches all the bases as far as they are concerned. Long time member of storied staff, CY,8 time All-Star, crushingly good post season pitcher, has the SP/RP/SP storyline, was a good quote, is white, is seen as a "clean player," and maintains a continued presence via announcing. Smoltz has been "Future Hall of Famer John Smoltz" for a decade now. The writers will make this happen.

That's why I think he's going to steal votes from Biggio, Raines, Trammell and all the guys loitering on the cusp. Given a handful of players to complete the ballot, I think most writers will take the easy way out and go Smoltz. There also already seem to be some voters who feel he's in the top five on the ballot which will push other players down those lists, bumping guys at the bottom.

What's the largest group of players on the ballot who were teammates simultaneously? John Smoltz, Fred McGriff, Jermaine Dye, and Jason Schmidt were teammates on the 1996 Braves for a month and a half.

And then there's this...Hal McCoy admitted he might be the only BBWAA member to vote for Aaron Boone, who McCoy credited with helping to convince him to continue his writing career several years ago despite problems with his vision.

Hall of Famer or not? Writers debate at Green Diamond

I think folk here underestimate how much the writers value narrative. He touches all the bases as far as they are concerned. Long time member of storied staff, CY,8 time All-Star, crushingly good post season pitcher, has the SP/RP/SP storyline, was a good quote, is white, is seen as a "clean player," and maintains a continued presence via announcing. Smoltz has been "Future Hall of Famer John Smoltz" for a decade now. The writers will make this happen.

This. It is also why Schilling will get in before Mussina. What is Mussina's storyline? I love him, but he has to be one of the most boring 270-game winners in MLB history. Schilling's bloody sock performance, helping end the 86-year curse, etc., is like a storybook.

Smoltz has been seen as a HOF'er for many years now, as well. It's why Mattingly can even stay on the ballot this long. It's also why Walker is not as strong a candidate as many of his supporters think he should be.

It's also why David Ortiz is going to walk into the Hall of Fame - he is a narrative writer's dream candidate - and Edgar Martinez has no chance.

Some of the quotes in the article linked in comment #67 bother me more than McCoy's possibility of voting for Boone, in all honesty. I can understand the sentimentality of that, although I don't agree with it. I just really hope McCoy votes for 10 total guys as a result. But the guy who talked about passing the "eyeball test," saying that Jack Morris did, but other guys who have the numbers may not? Ugh. Just ugh.

BobKlap 10:12am via TweetDeck

My HOF ballot: Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson, Biggio, Smoltz, Bagwell, Piazza, Bonds, Clemens, Raines, Mussina

.............

The McCoy vote for Boone is ridiculous and egocentric, regardless of how Boone affected his personal life. It's a reason why people stereotype all sportswriters in a negative way (which is also stupid, but it's bait being bitten).

Hal, it's not about you, ok?

I think folk here underestimate how much the writers value narrative. He touches all the bases as far as they are concerned. Long time member of storied staff, CY,8 time All-Star, crushingly good post season pitcher, has the SP/RP/SP storyline, was a good quote, is white, is seen as a "clean player," and maintains a continued presence via announcing. Smoltz has been "Future Hall of Famer John Smoltz" for a decade now. The writers will make this happen.

This. It is also why Schilling will get in before Mussina. What is Mussina's storyline? I love him, but he has to be one of the most boring 270-game winners in MLB history. Schilling's bloody sock performance, helping end the 86-year curse, etc., is like a storybook.

Smoltz has been seen as a HOF'er for many years now, as well. It's why Mattingly can even stay on the ballot this long. It's also why Walker is not as strong a candidate as many of his supporters think he should be.

It's also why David Ortiz is going to walk into the Hall of Fame - he is a narrative writer's dream candidate - and Edgar Martinez has no chance.


It's long been evident on these HoF threads that many Primates confuse their wish for the Hall of Fame to be the Hall of Merit with the existing mindset of the actual BBWAA electorate. It's why you see all these elaborate statistical arguments being put forth in favor of this candidate or that candidate, rather than a realistic assessment of the sort of factors that writers obviously have used in the past to decide in borderline cases. Only someone with such a HoM mindset would think, for example, that Mike Mussina would gather more votes than John Smoltz.

It doesn't mean that these neo-HoM arguments for players like Trammell and Walker don't have a lot of substantive validity. Hell, I've made them myself. But it does mean that they're mostly falling on deaf ears. Without that compelling narrative, you'd better be such a slam dunk candidate that even the most hardcore anti-SABR writer can't possibly refuse to vote for you.

The McCoy vote for Boone is ridiculous and egocentric, regardless of how Boone affected his personal life.

I dunno, what if McCoy had put his life savings on the Yanks in that 2003 ALCS? Seems to me that voting for Boone under those circumstances would have been merely a common courtesy.

100 - P. Martinez
96.4 - R. Johnson
85.7 - Smoltz
82.1 - Biggio
82.1 - Piazza
75.0 - Bagwell

Certainly not going to get my hopes up after 28 ballots, but this would basically be the coolest thing ever. I think I'd have to make my first ever trip to Cooperstown for that induction weekend since a better one might never come around in my lifetime.

It will be interesting when Pettitte joins the ballot.

He, too, has a narrative AS A "WINNER" and big postseason pitcher.

But Schilling, if he isn't in by then, mops the floor with Pettitte postseason and wins the regular season day as well.
Mussina is also problematic. Mussina has a better W-L record (270-153 vs 256-153), better ERA, and better postseason ERA (though not better W-L there).

The conflict could work in a variety of ways, but I've felt that Schilling gets in, and Mussina buries Pettitte more than Pettitte lifts Mussina.

It's long been evident on these HoF threads that many Primates confuse their wish for the Hall of Fame to be the Hall of Merit with the existing mindset of the actual BBWAA electorate. It's why you see all these elaborate statistical arguments being put forth in favor of this candidate or that candidate, rather than a realistic assessment of the sort of factors that writers obviously have used in the past to decide in borderline cases. Only someone with such a HoM mindset would think, for example, that Mike Mussina would gather more votes than John Smoltz.

I think this is unfair. Posting is more than just trying to read tea leaves of other people, when posting we all almost always insert our ideas into the mix. And one of the foremost ideas here on this site is that statistical measurements are growing in sophistication and importance. It is very natural to use those measures and influence the direction of the conversation where many think it should go, towards a more statistical value approach.

That is not confused at all it is often done with intention.

Perhaps you think it is foolish or pointless because no one here actually votes or whatever, and you are allowed, but I think narrative is decreasing in importance (very slowly) and I think discussions can influence the outcome. I don't think it is confused or hopeless at all, I think "Circle me Bert" is in the HoF because some (mostly one) people changed the conversation away from narrative towards statistical value.

That said I actually am a fan of narrative in HoF selections, though IO think value trumps it and narrative should be a bonus or demerit and not the final say.

I'm hopeful for Piazza. He only needs to pick up 75 more votes. If he picks up 50 the conversation changes from "Why?" to "Why not?" and there isn't a good answer to the latter.

I think folk here underestimate how much the writers value narrative. He touches all the bases as far as they are concerned. Long time member of storied staff, CY,8 time All-Star, crushingly good post season pitcher, has the SP/RP/SP storyline, was a good quote, is white, is seen as a "clean player," and maintains a continued presence via announcing. Smoltz has been "Future Hall of Famer John Smoltz" for a decade now. The writers will make this happen.

Mussina:

1. Member of a famous staff with Clemens, Pettitte, Wells, Rivera. Points off for spending the first half of his career with the Orioles. Advantage Smoltz.
2. 6 times in the top 5 for Cy. Smoltz only had 3, but did have the first place finish. Advantage Smoltz.
3. 5 time all-star. Advantage Smoltz.
4. Excellent post season pitcher. 3.42 ERA in 139 IP. In 1997, 15 IP, 4 hits, 1 run, 25 K vs. Cleveland, but Orioles couldn't score for him and lost anyway. Bailed Roger Clemens out with a heroic 2003 game 7 effort. Not as good as Smoltz though. Advantage Smoltz.
5. Relieved once in regular season, twice in postseason with one of those being the for-mentioned heroic effort. I don't see the SP-RP-SP being an advantage, but at least it's unique among greats - Eck never went back.
6. Good quote - Advantage Smoltz. He's an announcer, I can't remember anything Mussina said while pitching or after.
7. Both Caucasians - Draw. Though this hasn't been an advantage to HOF candidacy for quite some time.
8. Clean player - I assume this is referring to PEDs. No reason to trash either guy. Draw.

It would be awesome and amazing, but I'm still not seeing Piazza making it this year. I would be surprised.

It would be awesome and amazing, but I'm still not seeing Piazza making it this year. I would be surprised.

It's not likely. The hope is that he gets over 70 percent, and that the four ahead of him make it in (I'm definitely more hopeful of that the more votes Smoltz gets. He's clearly polling better than I thought he would).

Even if he doesn't make significant gains, if RJ, Pedro, Smoltz and Biggio make it, which looks increasingly likely, his status as the top dog among backloggers sets him up nicely for 2016, when Junior is the only obvious candidate among the first ballot brigade.

Mussina:

1. Member of a famous staff with Clemens, Pettitte, Wells, Rivera. Points off for spending the first half of his career with the Orioles. Advantage Smoltz.
2. 6 times in the top 5 for Cy. Smoltz only had 3, but did have the first place finish. Advantage Smoltz.
3. 5 time all-star. Advantage Smoltz.
4. Excellent post season pitcher. 3.42 ERA in 139 IP. In 1997, 15 IP, 4 hits, 1 run, 25 K vs. Cleveland, but Orioles couldn't score for him and lost anyway. Bailed Roger Clemens out with a heroic 2003 game 7 effort. Not as good as Smoltz though. Advantage Smoltz.
5. Relieved once in regular season, twice in postseason with one of those being the for-mentioned heroic effort. I don't see the SP-RP-SP being an advantage, but at least it's unique among greats - Eck never went back.
6. Good quote - Advantage Smoltz. He's an announcer, I can't remember anything Mussina said while pitching or after.
7. Both Caucasians - Draw. Though this hasn't been an advantage to HOF candidacy for quite some time.
8. Clean player - I assume this is referring to PEDs. No reason to trash either guy. Draw.

9. Beards - Smoltz (1), Mussina (0). Advantage Smoltz.

Mussina is better looking though and wasn't going bald in his 20's, so there's that, I suppose.

Regardless where he should rank compared to Schilling and Moose, Smoltz going in on the first ballot would be excellent for their candidacies.

I believe the HOM voting will be out Monday night; will be interesting to see how that trio fares there. They seemed awfully close to me, at least (by those measures).

"I can't remember anything Mussina said while pitching or after."

I've mentioned that I did a couple of group interviews of him. Stanford guy. Professional, but he seemed mystified (sometimes justifiably) by many of the questions. John Feinstein wrote a book on 2007 Mussina and Tom Glavine, though, so much more about him likely is contained within

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/discussion/2008/05/16/DI2008051602578.html

from a Feinstein interview:

"The differences had more to do with 1) their personalities -- Tom is very outgoing, Mike an introvert but brutally honest about everything."

4. Excellent post season pitcher. 3.42 ERA in 139 IP. In 1997, 15 IP, 4 hits, 1 run, 25 K vs. Cleveland, but Orioles couldn't score for him and lost anyway. Bailed Roger Clemens out with a heroic 2003 game 7 effort. Not as good as Smoltz though. Advantage Smoltz.

Mussina was also the 1-0 winner of "The Flip" game in 2001. None of Smoltz's victories have a nickname. Advantage Mussina.

None of Smoltz's victories have a nickname.

He was the other pitcher in "the Jack Morris game" although he did not, of course, get the win (but he didn't get the loss either - unlike real man Jack Morris, sissy-boy John Smoltz left the game after pitching 7.1 shutout innings).

A game theory ballot

Let's presume that our ballot should be chosen with the goal of trying to maximise, over the long term, the election of as many worthy players as possible. Under the current circumstances of having a glut of Hall-worthy players, clearing the log jam is of primary importance. Secondarily, we want to give the remaining worthy players momentum and a continued credibility. But since there are more worthy players than spots, we need to prioritise.

Firstly, we need to elect those who are close enough to make it this year: Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, John Smoltz, and Craig Biggio (Piazza is almost certainly coming from too far back on a crowded ballot to make it this year). However, Pedro and Johnson are assured of being easily elected- they don't need a given vote as much as other players further down the ballot. As general advice to the entire pool of electors, we need to avoid the disaster of everyone taking following this counsel, so let's make a rule: a voter should only leave these two off your ballot if his last name begins with A, B or C.

Secondly, we should give our vote to those worthy players, who, with a little momentum, can get elected in the next year or two. On the current ballot, that means Mike Piazza, Jeff Bagwell and Tim Raines.

Thirdly, we should do our utmost to preserve and increase the plausibility of the other Hall-worthy players, both to improve their chances of eventual election through the BBWAA, or their selection by the Veteran's Committee. On this ballot, I personally would elect Larry Walker, Edgar Martinez, Alan Trammell, Mike Mussina, and Curt Schilling. Others may judge somewhat differently, but let's take these for the moment. Walker and Edgar probably need the vote the most among this group, and it's Trammell's penultimate election, so there's some prioritisation possible within this group.

We should recognise that for the steroid-tainted players (Bonds and Clemens primarily, but also McGwire, Sosa and Sheffield), their eventual election is almost entirely unrelated to their current vote totals. They aren't getting in this year, and their vote totals this year won't have much of an effect on whether they eventually will. Strategic voters should probably leave them off their ballot this year in order to have a bigger impact by including other worthy players.

Putting this all together, the game theory ballot for this year should look something like this:

Randy Johnson
Pedro Martinez
John Smoltz
Craig Biggio
Mike Piazza
Tim Raines
Jeff Bagwell
Larry Walker
Edgar Martinez
Alan Trammell

And, if one's surname begins with one of the first three letters of the alphabet:

Smoltz
Biggio
Piazza
Raines
Bagwell
Schilling
Mussina
Walker
E. Martinez
Trammell

Mussina was also the 1-0 winner of "The Flip" game in 2001. None of Smoltz's victories have a nickname. Advantage Mussina.

One could easily argue that Mussina was outpitched by Barry Zito that day (though it was an incredible duel). The "1" was a lazy fly ball by Posada that somehow landed on the ledge above the out of town scoreboard. Most heartbreaking game I've ever attended. I'm not bitter enough to oppose Mussina's HoF candidacy, but I do hope he thanks Jeremy in his acceptance speech.

And can we also posit that anyone voting using game theory should have their voting privileges revoked?

If you aren't voting for the 10 most worthy players (assuming that there are more than ten worthy players, which there are) you are doing it wrong.

Of course I would have already revoked voting rights from anyone who left Bonds and Clemens off their ballots so the logjam would not be as severe...

Mussina is better looking though and wasn't going bald in his 20's, so there's that, I suppose.

Obviously, Smoltz was on steroids.

And then there's this...Hal McCoy admitted he might be the only BBWAA member to vote for Aaron Boone, who McCoy credited with helping to convince him to continue his writing career several years ago despite problems with his vision.

The McCoy vote for Boone is ridiculous and egocentric, regardless of how Boone affected his personal life. It's a reason why people stereotype all sportswriters in a negative way (which is also stupid, but it's bait being bitten).

Hal, it's not about you, ok?

Somewhere between 2 and 5 players will be elected this year, from a pool of up to 15 qualified players. There is a near-zero chance that player #6 will get within spitting distance of election; similarly, there's a near-zero chance highly-qualified player #15 will drop off the ballot this year. No matter what happens this year, players #6-15 will continue to have their chances in the coming years. Hal McCoy voting for Aaron Boone instead of any of players #6-15 (importantly, his #10) won't change any dynamic within the voting.

Aaron Boone was an occasionally decent player who showed kindness to McCoy. This is the one and only year that he'll be on the ballot, because he will likely only receive the one vote. McCoy isn't pushing Boone's candidacy, he's only repaying a kindness in a small but personally meaningful way.

BBTF, this isn't about you, OK?

Putting this all together, the game theory ballot for this year should look something like this:

Randy Johnson
Pedro Martinez
John Smoltz
Craig Biggio
Mike Piazza
Tim Raines
Jeff Bagwell
Larry Walker
Edgar Martinez
Alan Trammell

Trammell, Walker, and Edgar are all worthy players IMO, but they're not getting in via the BBWAA any more than Bonds, Clemens, McGwire, and Sosa are. They've been on the ballot awhile and have gained pretty much zero momentum. If we're being realistically strategic and maximizing the chances that as many worthy players get in as possible, I'd definitely remove two of them in favor of Schilling and Moose, who need to start building as much momentum as they can ASAP to have a shot.

I fail to see how using a game theory approach invalidates a HOF ballot. There is a good deal of merit to the idea of electing most worthy candidates rather than a fewer number of candidates who are the most worthy. In either case, the elected candidates are worthy of election; this approach is simply a matter of efficient voting. Efficiency of voting has to count for something here of all places.

And can we also posit that anyone voting using game theory should have their voting privileges revoked?

I fail to see how using a game theory approach invalidates a HOF ballot. There is a good deal of merit to the idea of electing most worthy candidates rather than a fewer number of candidates who are the most worthy. In either case, the elected candidates are worthy of election; this approach is simply a matter of efficient voting. Efficiency of voting has to count for something here of all places.

And can we also posit that anyone voting using game theory should have their voting privileges revoked?

If you aren't voting for the 10 most worthy players (assuming that there are more than ten worthy players, which there are) you are doing it wrong.

Of course I would have already revoked voting rights from anyone who left Bonds and Clemens off their ballots so the logjam would not be as severe...

No. I have no problem with Bonds and Clemens waiting to go in, because of their cheating. I think they belong eventually, but having to wait 8 or 9 years is fine by me. Since they have no chance anyway right now, I'd vote for 10 guys with a chance.

My ballot would be RJ, Pedro, Biggio, Bagwell, Piazza, Smoltz, Mussina, Schilling, Raines, Trammell.

there's a near-zero chance highly-qualified player #15 will drop off the ballot this year.

I think there's 19 qualified players on the ballot, and there's absolutely a chance that one or more of them will fall off the ballot (McGwire, Sosa, McGriff, Kent, Walker, or Sheffield could all go bye-bye without it being a surprise).

I think there's 19 qualified players on the ballot, and there's absolutely a chance that one or more of them will fall off the ballot (McGwire, Sosa, McGriff, Kent, Walker, or Sheffield could all go bye-bye without it being a surprise).

Well, McCoy wouldn't vote for McGwire or Sosa; as Sheffield admitted steroid use, he probably wouldn't get a vote either.

As for the other 3, the voters have had years to consider McGriff (5 years) and Walker (4) and their support is half of where they started and McCoy in my link says he never reconsiders anyone he didn't vote for in the past; you may think they deserve more consideration but the voters seemed to have spoken. Kent would be the only one who might lose out, but again, if he drops much from his previous 15% he has no chance anyway.

EDIT: McCoy also has never released his vote in the past, so we have no idea if he is or would have voted for McGriff, Walker, and/or Kent or not; the #10 on his ballot may be someone like Garciaparra. We also don't know if he may not have a full ballot, and only added Boone to all of the guys he normally would have voted for.

And can we also posit that anyone voting using game theory should have their voting privileges revoked?

If you aren't voting for the 10 most worthy players (assuming that there are more than ten worthy players, which there are) you are doing it wrong.

Last year, Jayson Stark voted for the 10 players who he thought had the best chance of getting elected (either that year or eventually), picking the 5 new guys and the 5 guys with the highest vote total the previous year. I don't recall anybody having an issue with that.

If you think 11+ people are HOF worthy, then you have to apply some kind of theory to a ballot that doesn't let you go beyond 10. Voting the best 10 is a good theory, but it's still a theory. It's not inherently invalid to pick one group of 10 from your pool of 13 (say) worthy players over a different group of 10. And if you knew that one of your 13 was going to come up 1 vote short without you, I don't think it would be invalid (at all) to ballot that player in place of someone you happened to know was going to stay eligible but wouldn't be elected. The only people who don't have a theory are the people who see 10 or fewer worthy players.

That's why I think he's [SMOLTZ] going to steal votes from Biggio, Raines, Trammell and all the guys loitering on the cusp. Given a handful of players to complete the ballot, I think most writers will take the easy way out and go Smoltz. There also already seem to be some voters who feel he's in the top five on the ballot which will push other players down those lists, bumping guys at the bottom

But almost all of those ballots had at least 3 of Maddux, Glavine, Thomas, Morris. Two of those slots go to Johnson and Pedro but there's no need for someone who wants to list Smoltz to take a vote away from anybody they voted for last year.

Any ballot on which Smoltz is "#4" or "#5" is a ballot where 1-2 guys are higher-ranked than they were last year, not lower-ranked.

There will of course be at least a few voters who, say, had Biggio last year and their ballot this year will contain Smoltz but not Biggio but chances are you'll find they had room for Smoltz and everybody they voted for last year, they just changed their mind on Biggio (e.g. Krieger).

He could steal a few votes from Schilling and Mussina. Last year those guys were either 3/4 or 4/5 in terms of SPs on the ballot (depending on whether a voter was a Morris guy or not). This year they are "clearly" 4/5 in terms of SPs in the eyes of most voters.

Re: the attitude summed up in #82: "I can't remember anything Mussina said while pitching or after."

Mussina gave one of my favorite-ever quotes by an athlete, when asked whether he would be able to accept a gay teammate in the locker room: “I'm going to make the assumption that I already have."

What's the largest group of players on the ballot who were teammates simultaneously? John Smoltz, Fred McGriff, Jermaine Dye, and Jason Schmidt were teammates on the 1996 Braves for a month and a half.

Johnson, Mussina, Sheffield and Ron Villone were all on the 2006 Yankees.