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Tuesday, January 06, 2015

The 2015 HOF Ballot Collecting Gizmo!

The 2015 HOF Ballot Collecting Gizmo!

Updated: Jan 6: 1:45 ~ 205 Full Ballots ~ (35.9% of vote ~ based on last year) ~ As usual…BBWAA ballot digging is welcome!

98.5 - R. Johnson
97.6 - P. Martinez
86.3 - Smoltz
84.9 - Biggio
76.1 - Piazza
————————————
63.4 - Raines
62.4 - Bagwell
51.2 - Schilling
43.9 - Bonds
43.4 - Clemens
35.1 - Mussina
31.2 - E. Martinez
24.4 - Trammell
21.0 - Lee Smith
15.6 - McGriff
14.1 - Kent
9.8 - Sheffield
7.8 - L. Walker
5.9 - McGwire
5.4 - Mattingly
————————————-
4.9 - Sosa
2.0 - Garciaparra
1.5 - Delgado
1.0 - Pete Rose (Write-In)
0.5 - Percival

Big thanks to Ryan Thibs, Ilychs Morales & Butch for all their help! And check here for Thibs’ excellent HoF Ballot spreadsheet.

Took their ballot and went home - Buster Olney and Lynn Henning.

EDIT: Originally posted at 12/17/14 7:31 PM. Date updated to make it easier for visitors to find. Jim.

Repoz Posted: January 06, 2015 at 09:03 AM | 1534 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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1301. Rob_Wood Posted: January 06, 2015 at 12:37 PM (#4874252)

flip

1302. Lassus Posted: January 06, 2015 at 12:40 PM (#4874255)

Reposted for the flip and anyone who cares -

I'm wondering if anyone has camped up there and knows which ones are particularly good.

Well, the state parks are very well-maintained and cheap and anything on a lake will be good, usually. Look at a map of the sites to find a decent one location-wise within whatever park you're looking at. That weekend is obviously going to be crowded, so I'd actually advise trying to reserve sooner (as in, probably now) rather than later, and it STILL might be difficult. But the whole area is small town/farmland, for about 50+ miles in any direction with a lot of smallish adorable towns. I'd say the important thing is not to give up if it's looking difficult at first blush. There's also B&Bs;, cottage rentals, etc., and the driving in the area is simple so 30 miles away or more is really not going to hurt you.

1303. People like Zonk and Chris Truby Posted: January 06, 2015 at 12:42 PM (#4874257)

I suppose it's a fool's errand to try to parse anything out of the dreg votes -- and of course, we've just got a sampling here not the final tallies...

But - I have a hard time understanding how Mattingly looks like he might hang around for yet another year while Nomar is one and done.

I don't think either belongs, of course - but how is Nomar not the Boston version of Mattingly?

They both had nearly identical 4 peaks that make up the majority of their value. They both had some black ink during that peak. I suppose Mattingly has some hardware - an MVP and GGs - while Nomar has just a RoY (though, a runner-up in 1998). WAR and WAA has them nearly identical, career-wise - in fact, Nomar slightly ahead on both counts (44.2 WAR/24.2 WAA for Nomar vs 42.2/17.4 for Mattingly). Both seemed well on their way to the HoF before injuries sapped them -- and both 'rebounded' to similar 'good cromulence' for a few years.

Both were beloved hometown stars in major markets.

Like I said... I guess it's more or less just another data point in the seemingly nonsensical methodologies of a small group of voters - but unless I missed one, I don't see any ballots that had both.

It's moot, I guess - neither will go in and both might well be off the ballot after this year - but I see two virtually identical cases and the only realistic explanation I can muster is differing tastes in mancrushes...

1304. dlf Posted: January 06, 2015 at 12:44 PM (#4874258)

But - I have a hard time understanding how Mattingly looks like he might hang around for yet another year while Nomar is one and done.

This is Mattingly's last year of eligibility

1305. arrabin56 Posted: January 06, 2015 at 12:45 PM (#4874259)

Re: 1303
This is Mattingly's 15th and final year. He will be off the ballot regardless of his vote total.

1306. Baldrick Posted: January 06, 2015 at 12:45 PM (#4874260)

Willis (7)- Biggio, Bonds, Clemens, Pedro, Piazza, Sheffield, Smoltz

HUH?

1307. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: January 06, 2015 at 12:47 PM (#4874261)

[1306] Might be mad at Johnson for sucking in the playoffs with the Yankees.

1308. People like Zonk and Chris Truby Posted: January 06, 2015 at 12:49 PM (#4874263)

D'oh... My mistake on Mattingly -- but I think it actually makes the disparity even more stark.

15 years for Mattingly?

Obviously, the ballot crunch certainly factors in... but the point remains - you'd think a group of people who often pull out the old umpire cliche ("small zone/big zone, high zone/low zone - so long as it's consistent") would have a bit more self-awareness about their own lack of consistency.

1309. Lassus Posted: January 06, 2015 at 12:50 PM (#4874264)

HUH?

I saw that, too. A little weird.

1310. MelOtt4 Posted: January 06, 2015 at 12:51 PM (#4874267)

Mattingly hung on fifteen years because he entered with a much less crowded ballot. By the time the ballot became full he had enough support to never go under 5%.

1311. TJ Posted: January 06, 2015 at 12:53 PM (#4874268)

Brian Heyman's Ballot- Unit, Pedro, Biggio, Piazza. It's official- we have a new champ in the battle for the worst Heyman ballot...

1312. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: January 06, 2015 at 12:53 PM (#4874269)

This is Mattingly's last year of eligibility

I asked this yesterday so apologies if it was already answered but has anyone dropped below 5% in their 15th year of eligibility?

1313. Mark Armour Posted: January 06, 2015 at 12:54 PM (#4874273)

Looks like Biggio might end up way over. This would be great for next year.

1314. billyshears Posted: January 06, 2015 at 12:54 PM (#4874274)

I just realized that I passed the point where I feel old because I'm older than most active MLB players and reached the point where I feel young because Don Mattingly, Alan Trammell and Tim Raines are still on the HoF ballot.

1315. Swedish Chef Posted: January 06, 2015 at 12:56 PM (#4874277)

HUH?

Maybe he has a criteria for how ugly a HoFer may be?

1316. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: January 06, 2015 at 12:56 PM (#4874279)

Gizmo was just on the HoF show

1317. Lassus Posted: January 06, 2015 at 12:58 PM (#4874281)

Brian Heyman's Ballot- Unit, Pedro, Biggio, Piazza. It's official- we have a new champ in the battle for the worst Heyman ballot...

This is one of those truly terrible ballots I'm hypocritically ok with.

Gizmo was just on the HoF show

Maybe they'll start quoting the thread.

1318. toratoratora Posted: January 06, 2015 at 12:58 PM (#4874282)

OMG-Harold is engaging in strategic voting....based on first impressions

1319. Ithaca2323 Posted: January 06, 2015 at 12:58 PM (#4874283)

The one thing I find most troubling is Bagwell is simply not moving up the way he should. He's not picking up new votes at the same rate as the other backloggers,

Two things:

1. Bagwell probably avoids the backlog on most ballots, but any time you have this many viable candidates, someone's getting squeezed off. Bagwell's not immune to being 11th or 12th on a 10-man ballot.

2. There were 261 voters who didn't vote for Bagwell last year. There were 308 who didn't vote for Raines, 404 who didn't vote for Schilling, and 465 who didn't vote for Mussina. There are fewer votes for him to pick up, period.

This doesn't explain Biggio, but because his two vote miss was so well-publicized and inspired a lot of complaining about the process, I'm not surprised voters are mobilizing behind him a little more.

I think Bagwell's caught a little in no-man's land. He's not exactly hurting for votes and he'll have a segment of people for whom he's a "no", which means he's not exactly got votes just laying everywhere to pick up. But unlike Biggio (and Piazza to an extent), he's not so close that voters with more than 10 candidates can see this year as a year to get him in and make a more conscious effort to put him above the cuff.

But I think, even more than a guy like Mussina, Bagwell benefits from next year's ballot. Mussina was 52 votes behind Lee Smith next year, which means he's much more likely to be slotted behind Trevor Hoffman next year. Bagwell probably only has Griffey to worry about.

1320. Danny Posted: January 06, 2015 at 12:58 PM (#4874284)

They both had nearly identical 4 peaks that make up the majority of their value.

Mattingly was perceived by many to be the best player in baseball at one point, while Nomar was not.

Both were beloved hometown stars in major markets.

Mattingly spent his entire career (7700 PA) with the Yankees and has been beloved since. Nomar spent his 20s with Boston (4350 PA) before being traded and run-down in the media.

Obviously, the ballot crunch certainly factors in

I think this is also part of it. Lots of people are voting for Mattingly because they voted for him before the crunch.

1321. The District Attorney Posted: January 06, 2015 at 12:59 PM (#4874285)

I think the meme is that Mattingly was the best player in baseball at his peak. Nomar, on the other hand, wasn't even the best player at his position (A-Rod).

Now, in reality Mattingly wasn't even the best guy on his own team (Rickey!) And if you're dismissing A-Rod as a PED creation, as most of these guys will, then wasn't Nomar the best "real" shortstop? But that was too much thought just now.

Another big factor was that Mattingly was a Yankee for 14 years. So he became more of a "legend" of that specific team. I think he also gets a little sympathy for "bad timing", and "surviving" the Chuck Cary years. (Which is hilarious, because how many guys played on bad teams for their entire careers, but any Yankee failure is viewed as particularly horrible.) Nomar, on the other hand, played for several teams, and peaked and was traded at the exact wrong time to truly go down in Red Sox lore. If you could swap Nomar's 2003 with 2004, I'd bet he'd at least last more than one year. And if you could swap his 1999 or 2000 with 2004, he'd probably get some really significant upport.

On another subject, here's the logo of Randy Johnson's photography studio.

1322. sanny manguillen Posted: January 06, 2015 at 12:59 PM (#4874286)

Gizmo was just on the HoF show

I'm curious: are they saying the Gizmo tends to run high, or are they giving the impression the Gizmo is predicting Piazza?

1323. toratoratora Posted: January 06, 2015 at 01:03 PM (#4874289)

On another subject, here's the logo of Randy Johnson's photography studio.

A HoF logo all the way

1324. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: January 06, 2015 at 01:04 PM (#4874291)

[1322] They said that it projects Piazza to make it with the caveat that there are still ~300 votes unaccounted for. They said nothing about the historical reliability of the Gizmo.

1325. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: January 06, 2015 at 01:04 PM (#4874292)

This doesn't explain Biggio, but because his two vote miss was so well-publicized and inspired a lot of complaining about the process, I'm not surprised voters are mobilizing behind him a little more.

It doesn't explain Piazza either. I hope I'm wrong, but I have a bad feeling there is a substantial percentage of voters who simply won't vote for him due to even vaguer than usual steroid rumors, and he's going to have a hard time making the typical progress someone who reaches 59 percent on his third ballot does.

For the record, he picked up 14 New Changes and Lost 4 on Changes the other way. That's not bad, but not as good as the rest.

1326. Kiko Sakata

Posted: January 06, 2015 at 01:05 PM (#4874294)

But - I have a hard time understanding how Mattingly looks like he might hang around for yet another year while Nomar is one and done.

I don't think either belongs, of course - but how is Nomar not the Boston version of Mattingly?

Mussina was 52 votes behind Lee Smith next year, which means he's much more likely to be slotted behind Trevor Hoffman next year.

I agree that it's fundamentally illogical, but for the vast majority of voters, step 1 is to list the players you voted for last year who are back, and then, step 2 is to evaluate new candidates. The result is that, in many, perhaps most, cases, new players are not being compared directly to existing candidates in the way that these quotes imply. How 1st-year Mussina did vs. 12th-year Lee Smith doesn't really give us as much insight as you'd think about how 3rd-year Mussina will do against 1st-year Trevor Hoffman. Similarly for Mattingly vis-a-vis Garciaparra, as somebody upthread noted, once Mattingly made folks' ballot, he stuck, unless and until voters had a reason to drop him - and they might be willing to drop him for Greg Maddux or Pedro Martinez, but probably not for Nomar Garciaparra.

1327. Kiko Sakata

Posted: January 06, 2015 at 01:06 PM (#4874296)

I am very pleasantly surprised to see that Mike Piazza has stayed about the magic 75% line through 202 ballots. I still think it's more likely than not that he'll just miss election, but I'm very impressed that he still has a chance. A 5-man induction class this year would be excellent for lots of reasons.

1328. Pat D Posted: January 06, 2015 at 01:10 PM (#4874300)

[1312] No one has ever polled under 5% in their 15th year. The closest was Mickey Lolich back in 1999 with 5.2% on his last ballot.

1329. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: January 06, 2015 at 01:12 PM (#4874306)

The big question now is whether 2015 Gizmo can knock off 2013 Gizmo (the second one)* as the all-time vote getter. If it doesn't, will 2015 Gizmo demand an asterisk claiming that he would have been the champion if not for Abstaining Olneys.

* As anyone who has used the search function realizes, both the 2013 and 2014 elections were called the 2013 Gizmo.

1330. MelOtt4 Posted: January 06, 2015 at 01:12 PM (#4874307)

It doesn't make sense for Piazza to to get the benefit of the doubt and Bagwell not to. I'm more inclined to believe there's voters who simply don't think his career numbers at this point warrant a vote for the Hall of Fame.

1331. Lassus Posted: January 06, 2015 at 01:13 PM (#4874309)

I'm more inclined to believe there's voters who simply don't think his career numbers at this point warrant a vote for the Hall of Fame.

Bingo.

1332. Danny Posted: January 06, 2015 at 01:17 PM (#4874316)

No one has ever polled under 5% in their 15th year. The closest was Mickey Lolich back in 1999 with 5.2% on his last ballot.

What's the longest someone has lasted on the ballot before polling below 5%?

1333. Ithaca2323 Posted: January 06, 2015 at 01:20 PM (#4874321)

How 1st-year Mussina did vs. 12th-year Lee Smith doesn't really give us as much insight as you'd think about how 3rd-year Mussina will do against 1st-year Trevor Hoffman.

My thought process is that the kind of voters who value closers now are probably still likely to next year. I mean, if you're the kind of person who's voting for Lee Smith and his 478 saves on a ballot like this, why are you suddenly not voting for Hoffman's 601 next year? What criteria would you a pro-Lee voter use to not vote for Hoffman?

Yes, Mussina is likely to have gained votes, but let's not forget there may be some guys who didn't vote for Lee who will vote for Hoffman, because by pretty much any objective measure of comparing the two, Hoffman was better.

I'm not saying Mussina will be stuck behind Hoffman, mind you. Just that it's possible, whereas for a guy like Bagwell, Hoffman is likely not a threat

1334. Halofan Posted: January 06, 2015 at 01:25 PM (#4874328)

Percival last minute surge!

1335. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: January 06, 2015 at 01:25 PM (#4874329)

It doesn't make sense for Piazza to to get the benefit of the doubt and Bagwell not to. I'm more inclined to believe there's voters who simply don't think his career numbers at this point warrant a vote for the Hall of Fame.

That's obviously part of it, but it doesn't disprove the theory (especially since Mike still isn't in).

Say there is 15 percent of the electorate who absolutely won't vote for anyone they have suspicions of, Piazza and Bagwell among them. That would require, in an election of 500 voters, a candidate to receive 375 out of the remaining 425 votes to achieve election. It's possible for one candidate, Piazza, to receive that kind of support based on his playing record, while another player, Bagwell, is unable to do so. So that bloc of zealously anti-steroids voters, in conjunction with the guys who simply aren't convinced of his bona fides, could keep Bagwell out but not do the same to Piazza.

Bagwell wouldn't be kept out because 35 percent of the electorate won't vote for anyone it suspects, just that enough guys exist to keep him from getting all the way to 75 percent.

Again, I hope that's wrong.

1336. Al "Battery" Kaline Posted: January 06, 2015 at 01:29 PM (#4874333)

What criteria would a pro-Lee voter use to not vote for Hoffman?

Smith = leader in saves when he retired
Hoffman = NOT

1337. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: January 06, 2015 at 01:29 PM (#4874335)

Percival last minute surge!

And the guy who voted for Percival dropped Mike Piazza to do so!

1338. Pat D Posted: January 06, 2015 at 01:30 PM (#4874336)

[1332] That's a little harder to answer, because of the changes to the balloting process. According to the HOF site, the 5% requirement was instituted in 1979. Since that time, the guys who have stayed on the ballot the longest before getting under 5% are Bobby Bonds (11), Keith Hernandez (9), Ron Guidry (9), and Rusty Staub (7).

Bobby Thomson lasted 14 ballots and was booted off after getting less than 5% in 1979, but he had received less than 5% previously. Harvey Haddix, likewise, was on his 9th ballot in 1979 and got less than 5%. He was re-added to the ballot in 1985 but again received less than 5% on his 10th ballot and was removed.

1339. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: January 06, 2015 at 01:31 PM (#4874337)

Smith = leader in saves when he retired
Hoffman = NOT

Actually, Hoffman did have the career saves record at the end of 2010 when he retired.

1340. Ithaca2323 Posted: January 06, 2015 at 01:33 PM (#4874341)

Smith = leader in saves when he retired
Hoffman = NOT

Perhaps. But I think the voters will more likely see Hoffman as a guy who eclipsed the standards set by Smith.

1341. LargeBill Posted: January 06, 2015 at 01:33 PM (#4874342)

1330. MelOtt4 Posted: January 06, 2015 at 01:12 PM (#4874307)
It doesn't make sense for Piazza to to get the benefit of the doubt and Bagwell not to. I'm more inclined to believe there's voters who simply don't think his career numbers at this point warrant a vote for the Hall of Fame.

Yeah, I don't think it is one getting more or less of a benefit of the doubt regarding PED nonsense. Probably both have some voters holding suspicions against them. Most likely, Piazza benefiting from being considered one of best if not best hitting catcher ever while Bagwell though great is being weighed against other 1B.

1342. Rob_Wood Posted: January 06, 2015 at 01:36 PM (#4874344)

MLB Network HOF show has a good representation of BBWAA voters (Gammons, Verducci, Rosenthal, Sherman, Heyman). We could easily criticize their individual thinking and ballots, but if these guys are representative of all the BBWAA voters, there would be a lot less criticism of HOF voting.

1343. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: January 06, 2015 at 01:37 PM (#4874345)

Lots of Fred McGriff love on the HoF show

1344. Howie Menckel Posted: January 06, 2015 at 01:39 PM (#4874349)

Mike Francesa just said Mussina is the kind of guy "right on the borderline," a guy you can make a good case for or against.

Just like
wait for it
wait for it
wait for it
seriously, wait for it
Jack Morris!

confidently pontificates that Smoltz will not make it this year, which means he can book his plane ticket right now.

1345. Delorians Posted: January 06, 2015 at 01:47 PM (#4874356)

For all the grief the HOF voters get, if I had a ballot it would list the top ten guys the Gizmo is predicting.

1346. toratoratora Posted: January 06, 2015 at 01:48 PM (#4874358)

I turned MLB off when they started interviewing Chris Russo. Just returned. Man, Schilling looks rough

1347. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: January 06, 2015 at 01:51 PM (#4874359)

Schilling and Costas arguing for a "in by acclimation" procedure for guys like RJ and Pedro, and then voters vote for 10 others. Interesting, but not sure how that would work in practicality. Do Bonds and Clemens get in by acclimation?

1348. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: January 06, 2015 at 01:52 PM (#4874360)

Mike Francesa just said Mussina is the kind of guy "right on the borderline," a guy you can make a good case for or against.
...
Jack Morris!

Wins: Morris - 254 Mussina - 270

20-win seasons: Morris - 3 Mussina - 1

ERA: Morris - 3.90 Mussina - 3.68

CY: Morris - 0 Mussina - 0

AS: Morris - 5 Mussina - 5

Grit and determination: Morris - Hell Yes Mussina - No

Game 7: Morris - Yes Mussina No

Look pretty similar to me.

1349. People like Zonk and Chris Truby Posted: January 06, 2015 at 01:53 PM (#4874363)

Schilling and Costas arguing for a "in by acclimation" procedure for guys like RJ and Pedro, and then voters vote for 10 others. Interesting, but not sure how that would work in practicality. Do Bonds and Clemens get in by acclimation?

Heh... pretty sure this is the producer saying "We've still got 10 minutes to kill... say something!"

1350. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: January 06, 2015 at 01:54 PM (#4874364)

Live announcement after the break! This is happening!

1351. Delorians Posted: January 06, 2015 at 01:54 PM (#4874365)

1352. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: January 06, 2015 at 01:55 PM (#4874367)

Bob Costas just got done talking about how, at the turn of the century, no one anywhere had ever spoken of Barry Bonds as being in a class with players like Ruth, Aaron, and Mantle: "Nonsense!"

Bill James, 1999: "When people begin to take in all of his accomplishments, Bonds may well be rated among the five greatest players in the history of the game."

1353. Adam Starblind Posted: January 06, 2015 at 01:57 PM (#4874368)

What time is the announcement?

1354. Lassus Posted: January 06, 2015 at 01:58 PM (#4874369)

Like, now.

1355. toratoratora Posted: January 06, 2015 at 01:59 PM (#4874373)

Its showtime!

1356. JJ1986 Posted: January 06, 2015 at 02:00 PM (#4874374)

4 voted in. Piazza out.

1357. Mark Armour Posted: January 06, 2015 at 02:00 PM (#4874375)

Biggio in.

1358. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: January 06, 2015 at 02:00 PM (#4874376)

4 to the Hall!

1359. T.J. Posted: January 06, 2015 at 02:00 PM (#4874377)

Biggio, but not Piazza.

1360. toratoratora Posted: January 06, 2015 at 02:00 PM (#4874378)

549 voters, 4 electees, Unit, Pedro, Smoltz, Biggio

1361. People like Zonk and Chris Truby Posted: January 06, 2015 at 02:00 PM (#4874379)

Biggio, Smoltz, Pedro, and RJ

1362. T.J. Posted: January 06, 2015 at 02:00 PM (#4874380)

Satisfactory.

1363. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: January 06, 2015 at 02:01 PM (#4874381)

Biggio, Smoltz, Pedro, Unit.

1364. Monty Posted: January 06, 2015 at 02:01 PM (#4874383)

That's pretty good work, BBWAA. It's not as good as I was hoping for, but you did okay this year.

1365. Danny Posted: January 06, 2015 at 02:01 PM (#4874384)

[1338] -- Thanks!

1366. Rusty Priske Posted: January 06, 2015 at 02:02 PM (#4874386)

All four are deserving. Nice.

1367. Accent Shallow is still reading xi as squiggle Posted: January 06, 2015 at 02:02 PM (#4874388)

Percentages?

1368. Lassus Posted: January 06, 2015 at 02:02 PM (#4874390)

How many votes did Piazza fall short?

1369. JJ1986 Posted: January 06, 2015 at 02:03 PM (#4874392)

Piazza got only 69.9%.

1370. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: January 06, 2015 at 02:03 PM (#4874394)

Nomar stay on the ballot?!

1371. toratoratora Posted: January 06, 2015 at 02:03 PM (#4874395)

Congrats to the four new electees.

Glad to be proven wrong on Biggio, happy to nail my call on Smoltz.

Nomar made the 5% cut too

1372. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: January 06, 2015 at 02:03 PM (#4874396)

they just said that nomar, sosa, and mcgwire stayed on the ballot

1373. Lassus Posted: January 06, 2015 at 02:04 PM (#4874398)

Piazza got only 69.9%.

Jesus.

1374. Rob_Wood Posted: January 06, 2015 at 02:04 PM (#4874400)

Is Ron Darling still saying that only 2 will be elected this year?

1375. Adam Starblind Posted: January 06, 2015 at 02:04 PM (#4874401)

Where are the full results posted?

1376. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: January 06, 2015 at 02:04 PM (#4874403)

Pedro Martinez 91.1%

1377. People like Zonk and Chris Truby Posted: January 06, 2015 at 02:05 PM (#4874404)

Bob Costas "They're not braindead... I assume?"

1378. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: January 06, 2015 at 02:05 PM (#4874405)

bbwaa.com

1379. Ziggy: social distancing since 1980 Posted: January 06, 2015 at 02:05 PM (#4874406)

I assume Piazza will be the top returning backlogger?

1380. James Newburg Posted: January 06, 2015 at 02:05 PM (#4874407)

Name

Votes (Pct.)

Yrs on ballot
Randy Johnson 534 (97.3) 1
Pedro Martinez 500 (91.1) 1
John Smoltz 455 (82.9) 1
Craig Biggio 454 (82.7) 3
Mike Piazza 384 (69.9) 3
Jeff Bagwell 306 (55.7) 5
Tim Raines 302 (55) 8
Curt Schilling 215 (39.2) 3
Roger Clemens 206 (37.5) 3
Barry Bonds 202 (36.8) 3
Lee Smith 166 (30.2) 13
Edgar Martinez 148 (27) 6
Alan Trammell 138 (25.1) 14
Mike Mussina 135 (24.6) 2
Jeff Kent 77 (14) 2
Fred McGriff 71 (12.9) 9
Larry Walker 65 (11.8) 5
Gary Sheffield 64 (11.7) 1
Mark McGwire 55 (10) 9
Don Mattingly 50 (9.1) 15
Sammy Sosa 36 (6.6) 3
Nomar Garciaparra 30 (5.5) 1
Carlos Delgado 21 (3.8) 1
Troy Percival 4 (0.7) 1
Aaron Boone 2 (0.4) 1
Tom Gordon 2 (0.4) 1
Darin Erstad 1 (0.2) 1
Rich Aurilia 0 (0) 1
Tony Clark 0 (0) 1
Jermaine Dye 0 (0) 1
Cliff Floyd 0 (0) 1
Brian Giles 0 (0) 1
Eddie Guardado 0 (0) 1
Jason Schmidt 0 (0) 1

1381. Gamingboy Posted: January 06, 2015 at 02:05 PM (#4874408)

So... Griffey and Piazza next year. Maybe Hoffman?

1382. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: January 06, 2015 at 02:05 PM (#4874409)

Harold Reynolds ripping on the Gizmo.

1383. Lassus Posted: January 06, 2015 at 02:05 PM (#4874410)

Harold Reynolds ripping on the Gizmo.

For what ####### reason?

1384. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: January 06, 2015 at 02:07 PM (#4874415)

Raines only got 55%. Wow.

1385. Monty Posted: January 06, 2015 at 02:07 PM (#4874416)

Harold Reynolds ripping on the Gizmo.

More details, please! Does he object to its existence or the way it isn't 100% accurate?

1386. Ithaca2323 Posted: January 06, 2015 at 02:07 PM (#4874417)

For all the grief the HOF voters get, if I had a ballot it would list the top ten guys the Gizmo is predicting.

Yeah, although it's important to remember this gizmo is not a representative sample of all voters.

But generally speaking, I think we do far too much complaining about HOF voters as a group. Sure, there are some individuals whose ballots seem to defy logic. But by and large, the voters rarely miss on a guy completely. Sure, some guy may go in with a too low percentage, or wait too long, but that's less of an issue

1387. People like Zonk and Chris Truby Posted: January 06, 2015 at 02:07 PM (#4874418)

Nice - but probably not nice enough - jump for Raines... Bags stuck in the 50s.

1388. You can keep your massive haul Posted: January 06, 2015 at 02:08 PM (#4874419)

Eddie Guardado got robbed I am outraged!

1389. Commissioner Bud Black Beltre Hillman Fred Posted: January 06, 2015 at 02:08 PM (#4874420)

How many votes did Piazza fall short?

About 27 I think.

Edit: or, exactly 28, if you prefer.

1390. Danny Posted: January 06, 2015 at 02:09 PM (#4874421)

Who are the Percival/Boone/Gordon/Erstad voters?

1391. Ziggy: social distancing since 1980 Posted: January 06, 2015 at 02:09 PM (#4874422)

Erstad gets one vote. Gordon and Boone get two each. Troy Percival somehow picks up four. Delgado is one-and-done.

1392. Davo Posted: January 06, 2015 at 02:09 PM (#4874424)

2 HOF votes for Aaron Boone, 1 for Darin Erstad.

1393. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: January 06, 2015 at 02:09 PM (#4874425)

[1383] Because of how far off it was on Piazza.

1394. Lassus Posted: January 06, 2015 at 02:11 PM (#4874428)

But generally speaking, I think we do far too much complaining about HOF voters as a group.

Considering how far how many ######-up voters out there are driving down the post-gizmo results on Raines, Piazza, et al, I'd disagree.

1395. Meatwad Posted: January 06, 2015 at 02:11 PM (#4874429)

Its a shame that he is too dumb to realize that its based on public ballots and not a prediction.

1396. JJ1986 Posted: January 06, 2015 at 02:11 PM (#4874430)

Unpublished voters really like Lee Smith and Don Mattingly.

1397. Lassus Posted: January 06, 2015 at 02:12 PM (#4874432)

[1383] Because of how far off it was on Piazza.

Yes, Harold, that's the GIZMO's ####### fault. Maybe you should be ripping on the voters.

1398. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: January 06, 2015 at 02:12 PM (#4874433)

Next year will be interesting in that we'll only have one no-doubt HoFer in Griffey. Hopefully the names-per-ballot stays high, and we see a Griffey, Piazza, Raines class.

1399. bigglou115 is not an Illuminati agent Posted: January 06, 2015 at 02:12 PM (#4874435)

I think the Gizmo did great, given historical trends it was pretty easy to guess Piazza was going to get right around 70%. I would've guessed a bit higher, but at 30% that's within the margin I think.

1400. DanG Posted: January 06, 2015 at 02:13 PM (#4874436)

Harold Reynolds ripping on the Gizmo.

To appease MLB. Voters aren't supposed to reveal their ballots beforehand.

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