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Friday, September 20, 2019

The 5 tiers of this year’s free-agent class

I’d put J.D. Martinez in the second tier.

Jim Furtado Posted: September 20, 2019 at 03:24 PM | 8 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: free agency

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   1. villageidiom Posted: September 20, 2019 at 03:59 PM (#5881280)
I was going to mention that they needed to create a separate tier just for Jacoby Ellsbury, but never mind. He has another year left on his deal.
   2. caspian88 Posted: September 20, 2019 at 05:17 PM (#5881311)
The "That Guy's Still Playing?" tier.

I'm hoping the Giants really go hard after Cole.
   3. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: September 20, 2019 at 05:19 PM (#5881313)
The "That Guy's Still Playing?" tier.
Well, more accurately it's the "That Guy's Still Under Contract?" tier.
   4. Walt Davis Posted: September 20, 2019 at 07:19 PM (#5881390)
Even tier 4 is guys who will mostly be lucky to get a 1-year offer. (Schoop should probably be tier 3.) I could see Castro getting 2/$10 maybe (he was over 3 WAR just a year ago).

Roark is easily above tier 5. The last 3 years is 520 IP of 100 ERA ball. Over that time Miley is 400 IP of 104 with worse peripherals and he's up at Tier 3. Meanwhile Hamels probably shouldn't be tier 3 -- at his age and with the poor performance since returning from injury, I don't see him getting more than 1 year, maybe a vesting option.
   5. Dag Nabbit at Posted: September 20, 2019 at 09:06 PM (#5881404)
Cole Hamels, LHP, age 36: Hamels was heading in the wrong direction in 2017-18 with the Rangers, but he’s been rejuvenated by his move to Chicago, where he’s posted a 3.36 ERA in 38 starts with the Cubs. His 8.8 strikeouts per nine innings are slightly better than his 8.5 career average, so even at age 36, he’ll be a sought-after mid-rotation option.

In his last eight starts, he has an ERA of 7.36 while barely averaging 4 innings per outing. His WHIP is over 2, and his opposing slash line is .342/.433/.575 - for an OPS of 1008.

That'll probably make teams a bit more nervous about signing a pitcher entering his late 30s.
   6. Howie Menckel Posted: September 20, 2019 at 09:10 PM (#5881407)
Hamels also is missing his latest start due to "shoulder fatigue."

what could go wrong?
   7. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 20, 2019 at 09:40 PM (#5881422)
Cole, Rendon & Strasburg (if he opts out) are in a class by themselves. Age & defensive limitations put Donaldson & Martinez (if he even opts out) lower.
   8. Walt Davis Posted: September 20, 2019 at 10:30 PM (#5881439)
Depends a bit on how you evaluate. In terms of total years/$, Donaldson and JDM will be way behind those guys. In terms of AAV, they might be close enough, epsecially Donaldson. Donaldson is putting up 6 WAR while playing very good defense and not missing time. He looks very far from done and could well be worth 3/$75. Alternatively if you want to focus on shorter-term impact, again Donaldson especially belongs in tier 1.

Another issue is that, except maybe for MadBum, there's a pretty big gap between tiers 1 and 2. Castellanos and Ozuna are the closest to JDM in Tier 2. We're talking a consistent 140+ OPS+ vs guys around 110-115 (and Castellanos is definitely equally defensively limited). So JDM doesn't really hang with the tier 1 guys but he's pretty clearly above the tier 2 guys and I'm not sure he's not closer to the tier 1 guys.

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