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Monday, February 06, 2023

The A’s Teardown Is Not Going Well

In total, since their teardown began, the A’s have traded eight veterans, worth $190.4M in surplus value according to our model, and received $113.1M in value, for a net loss of $77.3M. On a percentage basis, that’s a 46.1% hit.

Making matters worse, they came out on the losing end of all eight trades. The Olson package was the closest in value, and, interestingly, the Murphy trade would have been very close in value ($51.3M to $47.7M) if they had kept William Contreras, an all-star catcher, instead of flipping him for Esteury Ruiz, a mid-tier (at best) prospect. That portion of the three-way trade accounts for a big chunk of the losses here.

For a low-revenue, rebuilding team, that’s inexcusable. This is exactly the opposite of what the A’s should be doing. One could argue that, because all the other teams knew they were selling off their players, they got lowballed – and there’s likely some truth to that. When your sign says “must sell,” the bids you get are going to be low, and you take the best one. Granted, their timing didn’t help – it’s possible that the lockout worked against the A’s being able to play teams against each other in a bidding war, given the compressed timetable.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: February 06, 2023 at 05:52 PM | 8 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: athletics

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   1. salvomania Posted: February 06, 2023 at 08:44 PM (#6115988)
Maybe math has changed nowadays, but $77.3/$190.4 used to = 40.6%. It's not much of a difference, but "60/40" sounds better than "52/48" in this scenario.
   2. JJ1986 Posted: February 06, 2023 at 09:36 PM (#6115991)
This article sounds like a retrospective, but some of these trades just happened this offseason.
   3. Doug Jones threw harder than me Posted: February 06, 2023 at 11:12 PM (#6115995)
The flaw in this argument is that it presumes the A's are trying to win. I would say they are not, they just do some crazy stuff every now and then to make it hard to prove they are completely tanking.
   4. McCoy Posted: February 07, 2023 at 05:20 AM (#6116004)
Like win and go to the playoffs?
   5. McCoy Posted: February 07, 2023 at 05:22 AM (#6116005)
Is the 190 million in surplus value the dollar amount of total War times war per dollar - actual contract dollar amount?
   6. You can keep your massive haul Posted: February 07, 2023 at 12:11 PM (#6116033)
The one trade that the article points out as making little sense is the William Contrera for Esteury Ruiz part. The rest seems to me to be pitching prospects are not as high on prospect lists as position players (TINSTAAP etc.) Ruiz did lead MILB in OBP and had 80+ steals. It will be interesting to watch and see if he turns into Rickey Henderson or Rickie (Damn it was actually Jemile) Weeks.
   7. A triple short of the cycle Posted: February 07, 2023 at 10:41 PM (#6116075)
[weeps into 2002 A's rally towel]
   8. Rally Posted: February 12, 2023 at 08:54 PM (#6116719)
I thought we’d let the players in the trades play at least 1 game before judging the outcome of the trade. That hasn’t yet happened for Murphy or the guys he was traded for.

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