The Cody Bellinger conundrum – Dodgers Digest

First time I saw Bellinger was in a Spring Training game. I saw him CRUSH a few balls and proceeded to pick in him in every fantasy and sim league where he was available. He then helped me win a few championships. I haven’t drafted him a couple of years in my fantasy league but have kept him in my main OOTP dynasty league (which is tethered to real baseball).

My league mates have been complaining about him being much better in the game than in real life. I keep explaining that OOTP depends a lot on projections (which would still be good based on his previous play) and that his past success pushes OOTP’s development engine to move his ratings toward his in-game potentials. The explanation is correct but not satisfying to them.

While all this is going on, I’ve been watching him play with the Dodgers, who I watch often. My eyes have been telling me the same thing the metrics have been saying…he just doesn’t hit the ball as hard as he used to hit them. At the same time, his approach at the plate looks lackluster. It’s like he’s just expecting his performance to self-correct.

I don’t know what the Dodgers will do but when faced with protecting him for my league’s recent Expansion Draft, and despite a very reasonable contract, I exposed him to selection where he was picked 4th overall. It was a sad day because I appreciate all he’s contributed to my past success in our alternative baseball universe.

He might be one of those guys who needs different voices in his ears.

That has been part of his problem. He also isn’t hitting the ball as hard as in previous years. After topping out at 91.1 MPH average exit velo in ’19, he has averaged 89.3 MPH over the last three seasons. It’s been consistent, but below his capability and just slightly above league-average. His maximum exit velo has been 107.4 and 107.3 MPH the last two seasons after being a consistent 110+ MPH guy. His average launch angle increased over the last two seasons — 22.2 degrees in ’21, 20.3 degrees in ’22 — after being between 16.2 degrees and 17.9 degrees for the other four seasons of his career. Decreased exit velocity and a higher launch angle is going to mean more outs … when contact is made.