Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Friday, October 21, 2022

The Cody Bellinger conundrum – Dodgers Digest

First time I saw Bellinger was in a Spring Training game. I saw him CRUSH a few balls and proceeded to pick in him in every fantasy and sim league where he was available. He then helped me win a few championships. I haven’t drafted him a couple of years in my fantasy league but have kept him in my main OOTP dynasty league (which is tethered to real baseball).

My league mates have been complaining about him being much better in the game than in real life. I keep explaining that OOTP depends a lot on projections (which would still be good based on his previous play) and that his past success pushes OOTP’s development engine to move his ratings toward his in-game potentials. The explanation is correct but not satisfying to them.

While all this is going on, I’ve been watching him play with the Dodgers, who I watch often. My eyes have been telling me the same thing the metrics have been saying…he just doesn’t hit the ball as hard as he used to hit them. At the same time, his approach at the plate looks lackluster. It’s like he’s just expecting his performance to self-correct.

I don’t know what the Dodgers will do but when faced with protecting him for my league’s recent Expansion Draft, and despite a very reasonable contract, I exposed him to selection where he was picked 4th overall. It was a sad day because I appreciate all he’s contributed to my past success in our alternative baseball universe.

He might be one of those guys who needs different voices in his ears.

That has been part of his problem. He also isn’t hitting the ball as hard as in previous years. After topping out at 91.1 MPH average exit velo in ’19, he has averaged 89.3 MPH over the last three seasons. It’s been consistent, but below his capability and just slightly above league-average. His maximum exit velo has been 107.4 and 107.3 MPH the last two seasons after being a consistent 110+ MPH guy. His average launch angle increased over the last two seasons — 22.2 degrees in ’21, 20.3 degrees in ’22 — after being between 16.2 degrees and 17.9 degrees for the other four seasons of his career. Decreased exit velocity and a higher launch angle is going to mean more outs … when contact is made.

jimfurtado Posted: October 21, 2022 at 12:49 PM | 4 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: cody bellinger, dodgers

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Jeff Francoeur's OPS Posted: October 21, 2022 at 02:20 PM (#6101988)
The drop-off has been absurd for his age. He posted a 167 OPS+ in his MVP season (2019), but only a 74 OPS+ in the 1,143 plate appearances since. Didn't he hurt his shoulder in 2020?
   2. Walt Davis Posted: October 21, 2022 at 02:36 PM (#6101991)
It doesn't seem that hard of a decision to me. You non-tender him and then offer to re-sign him. Realistically if you tender him, you'll pay him $18 M or more; offer him $7-10 instead. All this assuming the Dodgers don't have somebody better in mind for CF. He'll be FA after next year anyway so, at worst, he goes somewhere else, rediscovers himself then they can make him an FA offer.

It seems like an even more extreme case of Heywardism.
   3. The Duke Posted: October 21, 2022 at 02:53 PM (#6101995)
Has to be an injury compounded by swing changes. He's lost the magic. Should go somewhere else and start over
   4. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: October 21, 2022 at 03:12 PM (#6101997)
Is this all because of the shoulder injury from his super-enthusiastic forearm bash in the 2020 playoffs?

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.



<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Dynasty League Baseball

Support BBTF


Thanks to
Eugene Freedman
for his generous support.

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogOT Soccer Thread - The Run In
(376 - 1:12pm, May 28)
Last: Infinite Yost (Voxter)

NewsblogOMNICHATTER for May 2023
(571 - 12:43pm, May 28)
Last: cardsfanboy

NewsblogESPN Insider: Robo umps in MLB? Inside baseball's latest ABS experiment
(80 - 12:24pm, May 28)
Last: SoSH U at work

NewsblogFormer MLB Stars In Upstate NY, Here's How You Can Meet Them
(19 - 11:31am, May 28)
Last: McCoy

Newsblog2023 NBA Playoffs Thread
(2298 - 11:20am, May 28)
Last: MHS

NewsblogCarlos Correa Diagnosed With Plantar Fasciitis And Muscle Strain In Left Foot
(17 - 11:37pm, May 27)
Last: sunday silence (again)

NewsblogA’s, Nevada legislators close to finalizing Las Vegas ballpark deal
(22 - 6:51pm, May 27)
Last: Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc

NewsblogRed Sox were very close to signing Jose Abreu last Nov., but dodged a bullet
(2 - 3:55pm, May 27)
Last: Walt Davis

Sox TherapyLining Up The Minors
(14 - 10:28am, May 27)
Last: Jose is an Absurd Sultan

Hall of MeritReranking First Basemen: Discussion Thread
(18 - 10:10am, May 27)
Last: TomH

NewsblogCora: Red Sox moving Corey Kluber to bullpen
(20 - 1:08am, May 27)
Last: Walt Davis

NewsblogAngels To Promote Sam Bachman
(11 - 9:01pm, May 26)
Last: SoSH U at work

NewsblogMLB Tells Brewers They Need to Repair American Family Field
(15 - 2:01pm, May 26)
Last: The Non-Catching Molina (sjs1959)

Sox TherapyThe Only Game In Town (except the Celtics, but I don't care about the Celtics. No you shut up)
(87 - 11:27am, May 26)
Last: ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick

NewsblogRed Sox: Kenley Jansen calls out MLB for ‘ruining careers’ with pitch clock
(57 - 10:26am, May 26)
Last: Jobu is silent on the changeup

Page rendered in 0.1856 seconds
48 querie(s) executed