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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Monday, January 30, 2023The Continued Demise of the Left-Handed Reliever
RoyalsRetro (AG#1F)
Posted: January 30, 2023 at 05:07 PM | 5 comment(s)
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1. Walt Davis Posted: January 30, 2023 at 09:16 PM (#6115209)RHP vs LHB: 239/314/394
LHP vs RHB: 252/320/417
RHP vs RHB: 245/307/393 (whoa!)
LHP vs LHB: 225/300/347
For 2022 at least, virtually no platoon difference for RHP. The K-rate is 1% lower vs LHP and the walk rate much higher but the BABIP is lower (the shift maybe) and the HR/PA rate the same (slightly higher vs RHB even).
Lefties seeing something like the traditional pretty extreme splits. Given nearly 75% of their BF are RHB, those big numbers are not kind and it's only their dominance of LHB that keeps them in the game at all. The HR rate tells much of the story -- 3.1% vs RHB and 2.1% vs LHB.
A quick weighted OPS puts the break-even point for a LHP around 2 RHB for every 1 LHB which suggests the 3-batter rule per se is not a big problem -- as long as it's 2 scheduled LHB in the next 3, even if one gets PH for, they should be OK on average. But that 4th batter will almost always be RHB and maybe that's where the trouble lies; also the LHB not PH for is probably a very good LHB.
Thank you, thank you, I'll be here all night.
Yes - if a lefty batter's expected value is already reduced by the shift, then the available platoon advantage for pitching lefty-on-lefty has to be less. I don't know if these tiny percentage points would add up into anyone's roster decisions, though.
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