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Tuesday, September 27, 2022

The difficult postseason decision Mets face

Assuming the Mets can line up their postseason rotation the way they desire, they’ll open the playoffs with Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer in some order, followed by Chris Bassitt. All three of those pitchers have earned the assignment on merit.

After that, the Mets face a difficult decision; it’s tough to draw a line between third and fourth starters Carlos Carrasco and Taijuan Walker. Both have been key contributors for the Mets but notably inconsistent. Overall, Carrasco is 15-6 with a 3.79 ERA while Walker is 12-4 with a 3.42 mark—numbers that hardly tell the story of their seasons.

The weightiest argument against Carrasco is that nearly all his success has come against bad teams. Consider:

Versus teams with at least a .500 record, Carrasco is 4-5 with a 6.84 ERA. Hitters from those clubs have a .300/.365/.486 slash line against him.
Versus sub-.500 teams, Carrasco is 11-2 with a 2.14 ERA. Hitters from those clubs have a .247/.295/.369 slash line against him.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: September 27, 2022 at 02:17 PM | 24 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: carlos carrasco, mets, taijuan walker

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1. Lassus Posted: September 27, 2022 at 02:42 PM (#6098083)

In before the Turkish spam!

Honestly, is the decision between two good 4th and 5th starters really something that can be classified as "difficult"?

2. SoSH U at work Posted: September 27, 2022 at 03:04 PM (#6098087)

Honestly, is the decision between two good 4th and 5th starters really something that can be classified as "difficult"?

No, and I wonder if they'd use some kind of timeshare arrangement. 3 innings of Carrasco and three of Walker sounds like a solid plan.

And as much as we dislike Turkish spam, but there's probably even less demand for it in Turkey.

3. Howie Menckel Posted: September 27, 2022 at 03:05 PM (#6098088)

David Peterson is a lefty with a 7-5 record and 3.97 ERA that includes a few big blowups.

he might be the Mets' 4th choice depending on opponent. (Trevor Williams is 2-5 with a 3.09 ERA in 9 starts and 19 relief appearances fwiw)

as for Mets fans, the difficult choice they faced in 50 of the team's previous 59 seasons is what team to root for - since the Mets didn't reach the postseason.

4. Karl from NY Posted: September 27, 2022 at 03:17 PM (#6098092)

Surely there are better ways to decide this than W-L and ERA? We've got plenty of stats that properly account for context and opposition quality.

5. Howie Menckel Posted: September 27, 2022 at 03:21 PM (#6098093)

I see what you did there - not sure anyone else did, though

6. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 27, 2022 at 03:58 PM (#6098097)

No, and I wonder if they'd use some kind of timeshare arrangement. 3 innings of Carrasco and three of Walker sounds like a solid plan.

nvm.

7. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: September 27, 2022 at 03:59 PM (#6098098)

I wonder, if you performed the same micro-division of stats on any other pitcher on this staff, what the results would be.

8. You can keep your massive haul Posted: September 27, 2022 at 04:15 PM (#6098100)

And as much as we dislike Turkish spam, but there's probably even less demand for it in Turkey.

I heard Hawaii is the only reason Spam is still in business.

9. Greg Pope Posted: September 27, 2022 at 04:16 PM (#6098101)

And as much as we dislike Turkish spam, but there's probably even less demand for it in Turkey.

I went to Istanbul about 10 years ago. My children being fans of the Narnia series, I was pretty happy to bring home a box of Turkish Delight for them.

That stuff is vile. You betray your 3 siblings for that?

10. SoSH U at work Posted: September 27, 2022 at 04:39 PM (#6098103)

nvm.

Just to be clear, a solid plan in terms for the Mets' chance of winning. Not for us.

11. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 27, 2022 at 04:40 PM (#6098104)

That stuff is vile. You betray your 3 siblings for that?

Really? I think the rose flavored is pretty good.

12. Walt Davis Posted: September 27, 2022 at 04:40 PM (#6098105)

I wonder, if you performed the same micro-division of stats on any other pitcher on this staff, what the results would be.

If only there was a website -- some sort of "reference" for baseball stats!! :-)

Scherzer 4-1, 1.98, 178/233/282 vs 7-3, 2.21, 210/259/312
deGrom 2-2, 3.55, 200/236/350 vs 3-1, 2.13, 126/146/207 (!!) -- a lot of that is Oakland
Bassitt 8-4, 3.60, 241/294/365 vs 7-4, 2.89, 225/293/345
Walker 10-1, 2.29, 211/262/302 vs 2-4, 5,10, 269/340/427
Peterson 5-2, 3.71, 235/311/388 vs 2-3, 4.50, 244/366/378
Williams 2-4, 3.45, 249/292/419 vs 0-1, 2.60, 250/327/402

So it's more "this is the difference between a top starter and a solid starter. But sure, why call out Carrasco's 11-2, 2.14 but not Walker's 10-1, 2.29? Walker's batting against line vs >500 is clearly better but it is just 52 IP for Carrasco and 65 for Walker.

13. Walt Davis Posted: September 27, 2022 at 04:45 PM (#6098106)

I should add that a good chunk of Peterson's and Williams' work was in relief.

It is intriguing that Carrasco and Walker are 21-3 against sub-500 while the others combine for 21-13. Also the Scherzer split with just 8 starts vs <500 and 14 against >=500 although maybe his injury just happened to coincide with a weak schedule.

14. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: September 27, 2022 at 04:48 PM (#6098107)

This just in: It's harder to beat good teams than poor teams.

15. Howie Menckel Posted: September 27, 2022 at 04:50 PM (#6098108)

why call out Carrasco's 11-2, 2.14 but not Walker's 10-1, 2.29?

from TFA:

"The alternative is Walker, who features similar quality-of-competition splits, albeit not so extreme. Walker is 2-3 with a 5.01 ERA against winning teams and 10-1 with a 2.29 mark vs. losing ones."

16. Walt Davis Posted: September 27, 2022 at 05:56 PM (#6098110)

But not in the excerpt was it? Also clarity of presentation (from TFA and the excerpt): The weightiest argument against Carrasco is that nearly all his success has come against bad teams. It's not an argument at all much less a weighty one if it's equally true of the alternative. Might as well say that the weightiest argument against Carrasco is that he called tails on the coin flip.

17. Howie Menckel Posted: September 27, 2022 at 07:05 PM (#6098113)

yes, it seems like the premise was completed before he looked at Walker's very similar record - but he stuck with the premise anyway.

18. JJ1986 Posted: September 27, 2022 at 07:26 PM (#6098120)

Carrasco's audition is not going well.

19. Howie Menckel Posted: September 27, 2022 at 07:34 PM (#6098122)

actually, the two first-inning runs by the Marlins moves Carrasco about even with Walker in the all-important "what's your record and ERA vs bad teams?"

Cookie playing 4-D chess here....

20. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: September 27, 2022 at 10:58 PM (#6098161)

It is intriguing that Carrasco and Walker are 21-3 against sub-500 while the others combine for 21-13.

Seems more likely that it's random than intriguing.

21. bobm Posted: September 28, 2022 at 11:33 AM (#6098193)

[12] In the Regular Season, in 2022, WP >= .500 (within Opponent), requiring Games Started >= 10, sorted by lowest tOPS+.

                                                                                               
Rk    I            Player    Split Year tOPS+ W  L  ERA  G GS    IP  BF  WHIP  SO/9 SO/BB sOPS+
1            Reid Detmers WP  .500 2022    69 6  3 2.50 14 14  75.2 305 1.071  7.85  2.44    61
2          Michael Kopech WP  .500 2022    69 2  5 3.19 10 10  53.2 218 1.006  7.55  1.88    49
3           Luis Castillo WP  .500 2022    74 3  2 2.03 12 12  75.1 304 0.996  9.44  3.76    50
4            Johnny Cueto WP  .500 2022    79 3  5 2.32 10 10  66.0 265 1.076  5.18  2.92    73
5            Dane Dunning WP  .500 2022    80 1  3 3.69 13 13  70.2 303 1.288  7.77  2.44    94
6           Miles Mikolas WP  .500 2022    80 5  7 2.54 14 14  92.0 354 0.880  7.24  4.93    57
7              Eric Lauer WP  .500 2022    83 3  3 3.21 10 10  56.0 232 1.214  8.52  2.41    85
8          Drew Rasmussen WP  .500 2022    84 4  4 2.43 12 12  66.2 263 0.990  7.16  3.79    54
9           Ranger Suarez WP  .500 2022    86 4  3 3.10 13 13  72.2 300 1.197  7.18  2.32    73
10          Kevin Gausman WP  .500 2022    88 6  7 3.34 16 16  91.2 378 1.156 10.31     7    79
11        Jeffrey Springs WP  .500 2022    88 5  2 2.31 14 12  62.1 254 1.091  9.67  3.94    64
12            Gerrit Cole WP  .500 2022    89 5  6 3.10 15 15  95.2 373 0.993 10.82  4.79    66
13        Kutter Crawford WP  .500 2022    89 3  4 4.33 15 10  62.1 260 1.283  8.95  3.88   104
14           Chris Flexen WP  .500 2022    89 3  6 3.56 12 11  65.2 277 1.279  6.17  1.88    86
15          Justin Steele WP  .500 2022    89 3  4 2.79 13 13  67.2 284 1.286  7.32  1.77    73
16           Kyle Bradish WP  .500 2022    90 4  4 4.54 13 13  71.1 299 1.332  8.83  3.04    99
17             Yu Darvish WP  .500 2022    90 6  4 2.49 13 13  86.2 333 0.854  9.35   7.5    50
18            Julio Urias WP  .500 2022    90 7  2 1.88 10 10  57.1 222 0.890  8.32  2.94    53
19          Nestor Cortes WP  .500 2022    91 4  3 2.63 14 14  78.2 301 0.864  9.38  4.32    48
20          Zach Thompson WP  .500 2022    91 0  5 5.37 12 10  55.1 239 1.355  6.83   2.8   110
21         Marcus Stroman WP  .500 2022    93 2  4 3.76 14 14  79.0 317 1.101  7.18     3    76
22         Paul Blackburn WP  .500 2022    96 3  3 3.99 11 11  58.2 240 1.142  7.82  3.64   100
23            Alek Manoah WP  .500 2022    96 6  4 2.37 16 16  98.2 398 1.003  8.57  3.03    59
24        Spencer Strider WP  .500 2022    96 6  1 1.69 16 10  69.1 272 0.938 13.63     5    40
25          Chris Bassitt WP  .500 2022    97 7  4 2.89 14 14  84.0 348 1.131  9.32  3.62    75
26              Alex Cobb WP  .500 2022    97 3  2 3.69 12 12  68.1 282 1.200 10.01  4.47    77
27           Mitch Keller WP  .500 2022    97 2  7 3.29 15 15  82.0 345 1.305  7.57  2.56    96
28          Yusei Kikuchi WP  .500 2022    97 4  5 5.10 17 13  60.0 269 1.467 10.95  2.15   135
29          Shohei Ohtani WP  .500 2022    97 7  4 2.63 14 14  82.0 322 0.976 11.85  6.35    62
30         Marco Gonzales WP  .500 2022    98 4  6 3.42 12 12  68.1 282 1.244  4.61  1.84   108
31              Alex Wood WP  .500 2022    98 3  6 4.97 11 11  50.2 222 1.322 10.66  4.29    95
32           Martin Perez WP  .500 2022    99 6  3 2.49 15 15  94.0 393 1.277  7.85  2.34    79
33             Kris Bubic WP  .500 2022   100 1  7 6.60 14 14  61.1 281 1.647  6.46  1.52   136
34          Dakota Hudson WP  .500 2022   100 1  4 4.47 11 10  54.1 228 1.362  4.80  1.32    97
35         Frankie Montas WP  .500 2022   100 5  6 4.55 17 17  91.0 383 1.253  7.81  2.72    94
36        Jameson Taillon WP  .500 2022   100 9  3 3.93 17 17  94.0 386 1.128  7.66  4.21    91
37           Zack Wheeler WP  .500 2022   100 5  5 3.40 14 14  82.0 331 1.061  9.22     6    73
38            Erick Fedde WP  .500 2022   101 4  7 5.23 13 13  62.0 269 1.516  6.39  1.52   120
39       James Kaprielian WP  .500 2022   101 2  3 4.86 10 10  50.0 219 1.460  6.30  1.25   107
40         Mike Clevinger WP  .500 2022   102 2  5 5.59 10 10  48.1 207 1.159  7.26  2.44   101
41          Kyle Freeland WP  .500 2022   102 7  6 4.89 17 17  92.0 402 1.348  7.04  2.88   121
42         German Marquez WP  .500 2022   102 2  6 4.83 12 12  69.0 297 1.391  7.70  2.95   121
43           Jose Berrios WP  .500 2022   104 7  6 5.77 18 18  96.2 440 1.531  7.82  3.23   126
44          Trevor Rogers WP  .500 2022   104 1  6 5.37 12 12  57.0 256 1.491  9.00  2.71   127
45      Madison Bumgarner WP  .500 2022   105 2 10 4.98 17 17  85.0 381 1.541  5.51  1.73   130
46         Nathan Eovaldi WP  .500 2022   105 2  2 4.58 13 13  72.2 312 1.294  8.17  5.08   115
47            Nick Lodolo WP  .500 2022   105 3  3 3.98 12 12  63.1 275 1.311 11.23  3.43   107
48           Carlos Rodon WP  .500 2022   105 5  4 3.05 14 14  79.2 328 1.155 11.18   3.3    64
49             Aaron Nola WP  .500 2022   106 4  9 3.51 17 17 110.1 439 1.024 10.93   6.7    73
50           Paolo Espino WP  .500 2022   107 0  7 5.14 24 13  75.1 326 1.381  6.93   2.9   118
51           Corey Kluber WP  .500 2022   107 4  6 4.89 16 16  81.0 354 1.358  7.22  3.82   103
52              Chad Kuhl WP  .500 2022   107 2  6 5.62 13 13  65.2 296 1.553  7.40  1.86   137
53           Max Scherzer WP  .500 2022   107 7  3 2.21 14 14  89.2 351 0.915 10.34  7.36    57
54             Drew Smyly WP  .500 2022   107 2  4 3.83 10 10  44.2 190 1.254  7.25  2.77   101
55            Tyler Wells WP  .500 2022   108 2  4 4.82 12 12  52.1 212 1.108  6.54  2.53    96
56             Glenn Otto WP  .500 2022   109 2  6 4.04 13 13  64.2 278 1.345  6.68   1.6   108
57            Jose Suarez WP  .500 2022   109 2  7 5.28 12 11  58.0 248 1.310  8.84  3.17   108
58          Corbin Burnes WP  .500 2022   112 6  6 3.31 15 15  89.2 369 1.071 10.14  4.81    79
59               Jon Gray WP  .500 2022   112 1  7 4.60 13 13  62.2 265 1.181  8.90  2.58    84
60            Jakob Junis WP  .500 2022   112 2  4 5.37 12 10  55.1 241 1.392  7.48  2.88   113
61              Max Fried WP  .500 2022   113 5  4 2.75 15 15  91.2 373 1.080  9.23  4.95    71
62       Patrick Sandoval WP  .500 2022   113 2  6 3.56 15 15  78.1 349 1.455 10.00  2.72    96
63             Logan Webb WP  .500 2022   113 5  4 3.35 14 14  83.1 338 1.164  7.02  3.25    86
64           Jordan Lyles WP  .500 2022   114 5  6 5.35 14 14  74.0 328 1.500  7.66  2.25   132
65       Justin Verlander WP  .500 2022   114 8  2 1.95 12 12  78.1 296 0.830  8.27  6.55    48
66        Adam Wainwright WP  .500 2022   114 2  6 3.97 14 14  81.2 352 1.347  7.60  3.14   103
67             Zac Gallen WP  .500 2022   116 4  2 2.71 12 12  66.1 266 1.010  9.63  3.55    60
68          Adrian Houser WP  .500 2022   116 1  9 5.29 14 14  66.1 299 1.583  6.11   1.5   114
69             Cole Irvin WP  .500 2022   116 5  7 5.05 17 17 101.2 423 1.249  4.87  2.62   105
70            Pablo Lopez WP  .500 2022   116 6  7 4.82 17 17  93.1 396 1.275  8.39  4.35   110
71           Nick Pivetta WP  .500 2022   116 4  9 5.33 20 20 109.2 480 1.505  8.86  2.25   120
72           Jose Urquidy WP  .500 2022   116 4  5 4.32 12 12  66.2 286 1.320  6.62  2.13   111
73         Charlie Morton WP  .500 2022   117 3  5 4.92 15 15  82.1 364 1.421  9.84  2.57   112
74            JT Brubaker WP  .500 2022   118 1  9 5.87 15 15  76.2 360 1.644  8.92  2.71   131
75          Jose Quintana WP  .500 2022   118 3  3 2.89 11 11  56.0 236 1.321  8.52  3.53    95
76             Robbie Ray WP  .500 2022   118 5  5 4.42 13 13  71.1 300 1.304  9.34  2.85   110
77            Zach Davies WP  .500 2022   120 0  5 5.60 12 12  53.0 235 1.491  5.94  1.59   119
78          Logan Gilbert WP  .500 2022   121 4  5 4.29 14 14  79.2 343 1.393  8.13  2.57   109
79          Merrill Kelly WP  .500 2022   121 3  5 3.68 13 13  73.1 299 1.214  9.08  2.96    93
80           Bryse Wilson WP  .500 2022   121 2  5 7.90 12 10  49.0 226 1.633  6.80  3.36   159
81       Roansy Contreras WP  .500 2022   122 2  4 4.89 12 10  53.1 239 1.444  8.44     2   113
82            Kyle Gibson WP  .500 2022   122 2  2 5.98 12 12  58.2 272 1.619  7.67   2.5   128
83          Hunter Greene WP  .500 2022   122 1  8 5.53 14 14  70.0 304 1.371 11.57     3   124
84            Tyler Mahle WP  .500 2022   122 3  6 5.31 12 12  61.0 263 1.410  8.26  2.24   110
85       Shane McClanahan WP  .500 2022   122 6  4 2.92 13 13  74.0 298 1.068  9.49  3.39    69
86         Ross Stripling WP  .500 2022   123 3  3 3.86 14 11  58.1 244 1.183  7.56  5.44    90
87           Chris Archer WP  .500 2022   124 1  4 4.98 12 12  47.0 205 1.489  6.32  1.18   117
88        Sandy Alcantara WP  .500 2022   126 7  8 3.12 20 20 138.2 557 1.125  8.05  4.13    84
89         Patrick Corbin WP  .500 2022   126 2 14 7.40 19 19  82.2 404 1.923  7.29  2.31   170
90            Blake Snell WP  .500 2022   126 2  6 4.67 11 11  54.0 234 1.370 11.83  2.63    98
91       Michael Lorenzen WP  .500 2022   127 3  5 5.98 10 10  49.2 225 1.571  7.07  1.34   120
92        Carlos Carrasco WP  .500 2022   128 4  4 6.71 11 11  52.1 233 1.529  7.74  2.65   132
93      Jordan Montgomery WP  .500 2022   128 3  4 4.31 15 15  77.1 323 1.228  7.80  4.19   109
94               Joe Ryan WP  .500 2022   128 2  6 5.29 12 12  63.0 269 1.254  7.71  2.25   109
95            Josiah Gray WP  .500 2022   131 2  7 6.93 13 13  62.1 287 1.572  9.53  1.83   160
96              Rich Hill WP  .500 2022   131 3  3 4.99 12 12  52.1 230 1.529  8.43  2.45   139
97          Michael Wacha WP  .500 2022   132 7  0 3.97 13 13  70.1 297 1.265  7.68  3.16   112
98         Taijuan Walker WP  .500 2022   132 2  4 5.10 14 14  65.1 288 1.454  4.82   1.4   110
99            Dylan Cease WP  .500 2022   137 4  3 2.76 12 12  65.1 276 1.316 11.43  2.59    87
100            Sonny Gray WP  .500 2022   141 2  1 3.25 11 11  52.2 225 1.367  8.54   2.5   111
101           Dylan Bundy WP  .500 2022   155 1  6 8.32 11 11  48.2 225 1.664  5.73  2.58   167

Provided by Stathead.com: View Stathead Tool Used
Generated 9/28/2022.

22. JJ1986 Posted: September 28, 2022 at 11:51 AM (#6098196)

1. The Twins are dominating the bottom of that list.
2. Isn't the applicable split against good and bad offenses?

23. Walt Davis Posted: September 28, 2022 at 04:39 PM (#6098233)

yes, it seems like the premise was completed before he looked at Walker's very similar record - but he stuck with the premise anyway.

Lord knows I would never do such a thing!

Seems more likely that it's random than intriguing.

Fair enough -- it is surely random and I meant "intriguing" in more of a "ain't that something" sorta way not a "let's dig deeper into this mystery" way which, true enough, means it's not intriguing.

Isn't the applicable split against good and bad offenses?

Hence the crucial W-L record! Just ask Bill James.

The Twins are dominating the bottom of that list.

This is true. I almost fell into a trap here so maybe it's worth making clear what this list is showing. It's sorted by tOPS+ which means it's comparing the pitcher's performance vs >500 teams relative to their own overall performance. Being near the bottom doesn't necessarily you're getting beat up by the good teams, it means the pitcher's performance has been more variable between <500 and >500. If you want to see how well they are pitching against >500 teams, look at sOPS+ which is how well they do in this split relative to league average in this split.

So some extreme examples here are Alcantara (sOPS+ 84), Cease (87) and McClanahan (69) who are near the bottom of the tOPS+ list. (Verlander and Scherzer, Jesus!)

Now the Twins' pitchers aren't doing all that well by sOPS+ either but Ryan (109 sOPS+) and Gray (111) at least aren't getting crushed -- Bundy though.

24. Srul Itza Posted: September 29, 2022 at 01:11 PM (#6098335)

I heard Hawaii is the only reason Spam is still in business.

Mmmmm, Spam Musubi

and Hawaii's Jack in the Box offers a Spam Platter. No better way to start your day.

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Tuesday, September 27, 2022

The difficult postseason decision Mets face

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