The Incredible Shrinking Postseason Starter

Back to the table above, it’s worth calling attention to two columns. First, note that the average number of batters faced has fallen towards and now below 18. Managers are making the call to the bullpen right around the time their starters turn over the lineup, giving them fewer chances to get knocked around while going trough the order a third time. This number has been trending downward during the regular season as well, with the average starter facing 22.7 batters in 2018, 22.1 in ’19, 20.4 last year, and 21.3 this year. During the regular season, starters may still face the meat of the order a third time with some regularity, but fewer and fewer are getting that chance in October, even with fifth starters left off the rosters or consigned to bullpen duty.

Second, note the R/GS column, the average number of runs surrendered per start. We don’t often see run prevention expressed this way; it’s almost universally prorated per nine innings. But what we’re seeing here is that increasingly, managers are preemptively pulling their starters before the opposition can put up big innings; once you’ve given up that second run, there’s a good chance your night is almost done.