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Wednesday, August 31, 2022

The Josh Hader Trade Hasn’t Helped Either Team So Far

A week after the trade, before Hader’s meltdown against the Giants, Baseball Prospectus‘ Michael Ajeto went even further in depth regarding Hader’s release point, his vertical approach angle, and the orientation of his wrist when throwing. His whole analysis is worth a read, but the long and short of it is that where the combination of Hader’s release point for his sinker and the pitch’s flatness made it exceptionally effective, the pitch now enters the strike zone at a slightly steeper angle, with a less deceptive spin. According to Ajeto, by keeping his wrist oriented vertically, Hader was able to “create a vertical spin profile from a horizontally-oriented release… much like seam-shifted wake, that’s what makes Hader deceptive: he’s creating pitch movement that’s incongruent from what you’d expect from his arm slot.”

But no longer:

Hader still releases the ball with his wrist orientated vertically, which means his spin tilt, or spin direction, has remained about the same. But now that his arm slot has started to rise… his expected spin direction from his release point has moved from about 9:30 to 10:30 on a clock face, which has begun to converge with his actual spin direction of 11:00. It’s clear that his sinker has become less deceptive because of this, so it’s not getting on hitters as well as it used to.

Whereas Hader had produced a 31.1% whiff rate with the pitch through July, it was just 23.1% for that month, and down to 21.7% in August. Woof.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: August 31, 2022 at 11:42 PM | 0 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: brewers, josh hader, padres

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