Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Wednesday, March 31, 2021

The New Baseball Still Seems Juiced

The first important takeaway is that while spring-training home run rates on contact are generally a little lower than the corresponding regular-season rates—likely because of differences in quality of competition, weather, and other factors—the two rates tend to track each other closely: As regular-season home run rates have soared, spring-training rates have tended to follow (or lead). The correlation between the two over the past 15 years is .91, where 0 indicates no connection and 1 represents rates in perfect lockstep. The second takeaway is that the HR/Contact rate this spring is higher than it has been in any other spring on record. Spring dingers aren’t down; they’ve reached a record level, topping 5 percent of non-sacrifice batted balls. And in six out of the past seven seasons, the regular-season rate has moved in the same direction that the spring-training rate did.

One crucial caveat is that multiple models of ball are often in action during spring training, as teams use up leftover stock from the previous season (or seasons) and also integrate brand-new balls of the type that will be used in the regular season to come. Spring-training rates have proved predictive in the past despite that murky mélange of baseballs, but this year, for the first time, we can partially pierce the veil. Past exhibition seasons have generated little public information from MLB’s ball-tracking technologies. This season, though, Statcast is installed and producing publicly accessible data at spring-training parks (two of which host two teams apiece). That gives us a sample of roughly 43,000 pitches and almost 19,000 batted balls, robust data sets with which to calculate average exit speeds and derive estimated drag from the reduction in speed as a pitch makes its trip to home plate. A higher-drag ball encounters greater air resistance and loses slightly more speed as the pitch flies 55-ish feet (or someday, maybe more) from the pitcher’s hand to home.

 

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: March 31, 2021 at 06:08 PM | 0 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: juiced baseballs

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Dynasty League Baseball

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Dingbat_Charlie
for his generous support.

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogNBA 2021 Playoffs+ thread
(3545 - 3:03pm, Jul 31)
Last: JJ1986

NewsblogSan Francisco Giants acquire Kris Bryant from Chicago Cubs for two prospects
(10 - 2:06pm, Jul 31)
Last: Walks Clog Up the Bases

Sox TherapyDance With Who Brung Ya'
(10 - 1:26pm, Jul 31)
Last: Darren

NewsblogBaseball Hall of Fame denies Curt Schilling's request to be removed from ballot for 2022 vote
(27 - 12:53pm, Jul 31)
Last: Tony S

NewsblogBraves revamp outfield with deals for Jorge Soler, Eddie Rosario, Adam Duvall
(6 - 12:10pm, Jul 31)
Last: snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster)

NewsblogNew York Yankees acquire LHP Andrew Heaney from Los Angeles Angels for minor leaguers
(2 - 11:06am, Jul 31)
Last: snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster)

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 7-30-2021
(56 - 11:05am, Jul 31)
Last: Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network)

Gonfalon CubsThis all sucks
(24 - 10:34am, Jul 31)
Last: bfan

NewsblogPadres Acquire Daniel Hudson From Nationals
(8 - 10:24am, Jul 31)
Last: bfan

NewsblogTrevor Story 'confused' after Rockies keep star shortstop at MLB trade deadline
(6 - 10:20am, Jul 31)
Last: bfan

NewsblogEmpty Stadium Sports Will Be Really Weird
(13508 - 3:48am, Jul 31)
Last: Never Give an Inge (Dave)

NewsblogLos Angeles Dodgers acquire veteran pitcher Danny Duffy from Kansas City Royals
(2 - 1:23am, Jul 31)
Last: RoyalsRetro (AG#1F)

NewsblogOT Soccer Thread - In Which Euro 2020 Is Played in 2021
(798 - 12:06am, Jul 31)
Last: AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale

NewsblogTRADE DEADLINE DECOMPRESSION OMNICHATTER, for July 30, 2021
(79 - 12:04am, Jul 31)
Last: Howie Menckel

NewsblogSeattle fills closer role in deal for TB's Diego Castillo
(4 - 7:14pm, Jul 30)
Last: Boxkutter

Page rendered in 0.2175 seconds
46 querie(s) executed