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Friday, June 26, 2020

The Obscenely Late, Obscenely Early ZiPS Projected Standings

The teams with the most positive change in their fortunes are the midwestern teams, and the teams that were on the very edge of Wild Card contention, such as the Rangers and the Blue Jays. The league’s basement dwellers’ playoff chances improve as well, but clubs like the Orioles and the Tigers just aren’t good enough to take as much advantage of it, in the sense of a binary playoff/non-playoff result, as these other teams. On the flip side, the elite teams and the coastal teams suffer the most. Every team that has seen their shot at the World Series trophy fade is a 2019 playoff team…or has Noah Syndergaard.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: June 26, 2020 at 12:01 PM | 16 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: zips

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   1. Walt Davis Posted: June 26, 2020 at 06:15 PM (#5959746)
NL Central -- pull out the old D&D box and roll a 4-sided die.

Dodgers at 10% for the WS; Yanks at 9%.
   2. Monty Posted: June 26, 2020 at 07:30 PM (#5959765)
This is going to be such an idiosyncratic season that I really respect the attempt to predict who's going to do well. It seems very challenging.
   3. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: June 27, 2020 at 08:00 AM (#5959805)
Next year's going to be a lot harder to predict. Right now Dan has all of the usual past data to work with. Next year he's going to have no 2020 data to work with, or maybe a short season's worth of data (which might be worse).
   4. PreservedFish Posted: June 27, 2020 at 09:20 AM (#5959810)
I just turned 39, and with the possibility that there's no season at all, and even that 2021 is affected, I wondered if there's a chance that when the next game is played I will have passed that fell and inevitable milestone of mortality, the day that one is older than every active MLB player. I suspect that the marginal MLB veterans - Pat Neshek, Eric Kratz, Fernando Rodney, Rajai Davis - those guys are done. Albert Pujols is still under contract for 2021, so I suppose he'll play if he wants to. There are two players older than I am that are still good: Nelson Cruz and Rich Hill. It seems safe to presume that Hill will die of COVID, but Cruz should keep getting chances as long as he wants to.
   5. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: June 27, 2020 at 11:01 AM (#5959812)
It seems safe to presume that Hill will die of COVID


Are you suggesting he will be sidelined with Kung flu like symptoms?
   6. Gch Posted: June 27, 2020 at 12:33 PM (#5959825)
Next year's going to be a lot harder to predict. Right now Dan has all of the usual past data to work with. Next year he's going to have no 2020 data to work with, or maybe a short season's worth of data (which might be worse).


Dan's already looked at the accuracy of Marcel-like (and Marcel) projections for past short seasons and came to a surprising conclusion:

I was legitimately surprised by the results. Having less data ought to result in worse projections but it just didn’t happen in the cases we have to examine. In fact, the basic 1996 wRC+ projections were the most accurate despite nearly a half-season of games over 1994 and 1995 evaporating into the ether. I’ve spent three solid days trying to figure out why the results aren’t notably worse than expected, something other than the rather unsatisfying answer of “the sources of errors in projections are so large they dwarf any accuracy loss due to missing games. ... there’s no obvious problem projecting players based on shortened seasons.”
   7. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: June 27, 2020 at 01:22 PM (#5959839)
Interesting, thanks.
   8. Rally Posted: June 27, 2020 at 03:23 PM (#5959856)
We still had minor leagues in the strike years. Next year is going to be a doozy if we end up with 60 big league games and nothing for the minors.
   9. The Duke Posted: June 27, 2020 at 05:04 PM (#5959868)
Cards get a huge advantage with 6 games against the royals while the rest of the Central has to tackle Cleveland, Minnesota, white sox. That’s a pretty big advantage in a 60 game season
   10. Adam Starblind Posted: June 27, 2020 at 06:15 PM (#5959883)
I just turned 39, and with the possibility that there's no season at all, and even that 2021 is affected, I wondered if there's a chance that when the next game is played I will have passed that fell and inevitable milestone of mortality, the day that one is older than every active MLB player. I suspect that the marginal MLB veterans - Pat Neshek, Eric Kratz, Fernando Rodney, Rajai Davis - those guys are done. Albert Pujols is still under contract for 2021, so I suppose he'll play if he wants to. There are two players older than I am that are still good: Nelson Cruz and Rich Hill. It seems safe to presume that Hill will die of COVID, but Cruz should keep getting chances as long as he wants to.


Last season I was down to just Rodney. Does he have a team right now?
   11. PreservedFish Posted: June 27, 2020 at 06:31 PM (#5959885)
These replacement level vets are not going to get a penny over minimum.
   12. Ron J Posted: June 27, 2020 at 07:42 PM (#5959892)
#11 Sure, but some people just like to play baseball. And minimum isn't a bad deal compared to what many will be making if they have to take a job outside of baseball.
   13. Howie Menckel Posted: June 27, 2020 at 08:28 PM (#5959900)
Cards get a huge advantage with 6 games against the royals

the Mets have 10 pct of their games against the Yankees
the Nats have 10 pct of their games against the Orioles

that's the baddest beat of them all
   14. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: June 27, 2020 at 08:28 PM (#5959901)

Cards get a huge advantage with 6 games against the royals while the rest of the Central has to tackle Cleveland, Minnesota, white sox. That’s a pretty big advantage in a 60 game season


I don't think it has been set how they'll do interleague play games yet, each team will have 20 games against the corresponding division in the opposite league, so they could very well do 4 games against each team.
   15. Walt Davis Posted: June 28, 2020 at 04:48 AM (#5959927)
According to a report today, the schedule is not set yet although Yanks at Nats on the 23rd has leaked. Given the lack of fans, rivalry series don't have any obvious benefit so hopefully they'll have enough sense not to skew the balance. More likely, somebody will pitch them as a "return to normal."

so they could very well do 4 games against each team.

Given all the challenges, I am sort of assuming it will be 6 games a week, two 3-game series, so none of this 2 or 4 game stuff. Labor Day is the only holiday requiring a weekday game. The day off would give a bit more flexibility on rainouts and you could even claim it as part of health protocols to keep players rested. Give them a test on the day before the day off and you can probably have results before the next game and maybe even a chance to make a roster move.
   16. Sunday silence: Play Guess How long season lasts Posted: June 28, 2020 at 12:32 PM (#5959968)
I’ve spent three solid days trying to figure out why the results aren’t notably worse than expected,


Less injuries?

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