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Thursday, December 14, 2006

The Official Matsuzaka Prediction Thread

Here we go.  Winner recieves an 8x10 Pete Rose print.

Wins / Losses / Innings Pitched / ERA / Strikeouts / Walks

Get at it.

The Original SJ Posted: December 14, 2006 at 02:50 PM | 144 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: japan, projections, red sox

Reader Comments and Retorts

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Page 1 of 2 pages  1 2 > 
   1. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: December 14, 2006 at 03:09 PM (#2261156)
16/9/195/3.25/200/50
   2. Pleasant Nate (Upgraded from 'Nate') Posted: December 14, 2006 at 03:10 PM (#2261158)
19-8, 227 Innings Pitched, 3.31 ERA, 191 Strikeouts, 49 Walks.
   3. bunyon Posted: December 14, 2006 at 03:10 PM (#2261159)
14 / 6 / 173 / 4.01 / 142 / 44
   4. The Original SJ Posted: December 14, 2006 at 03:13 PM (#2261161)
17-9 /201 / 4.25 / 180 / 51
   5. Kevin Sweet Child Romine (aco) Posted: December 14, 2006 at 03:14 PM (#2261163)
15/5/210/3.90/195/65
   6. Famous Original Joe C Posted: December 14, 2006 at 03:14 PM (#2261164)
18-7, 3.75, 200, 160/50
   7. Captain Joe Bivens, Elderly Northeastern Jew Posted: December 14, 2006 at 03:14 PM (#2261165)
22-5/ 231 innings/ 2.89 era/ 188 K's /42 walks
   8. plim Posted: December 14, 2006 at 03:15 PM (#2261167)
18 / 7 / 214.2 / 3.64 / 220 / 55
   9. Cabbage Posted: December 14, 2006 at 03:20 PM (#2261171)
13/6/195/3.55/185/60

4 CHB hints that he lacks the heart and desire to truly compete on the biggest stage in the world, following a rough patch in late July.
   10. sasquatch83 Posted: December 14, 2006 at 03:23 PM (#2261176)
18 / 8 / 208 / 3.73 / 198 / 48
   11. pv nasby Posted: December 14, 2006 at 03:25 PM (#2261179)
15-10 215 3.90 200 80
   12. Toby Posted: December 14, 2006 at 03:27 PM (#2261182)
14/8/196/3.32/176/66
   13. Cowboy Popup Posted: December 14, 2006 at 03:29 PM (#2261187)
14/11/187.3/4.30/150/45
   14. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: December 14, 2006 at 03:32 PM (#2261189)
14/8/200/3.70/180/55
   15. Van Lingle Mungo Jerry Posted: December 14, 2006 at 03:34 PM (#2261193)
13/8/206/4.32/167/74
   16. Sean McNally Posted: December 14, 2006 at 03:35 PM (#2261196)
I didn't click the link, but I can already tell you I hate that picture.

Wins / Losses / Innings Pitched / ERA / Strikeouts / Walks

14-9 195.3 4.30 175/80
   17. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: December 14, 2006 at 03:36 PM (#2261197)
8/4/105/4.11/93/46
   18. TomH Posted: December 14, 2006 at 03:37 PM (#2261198)
11/8/165/3.95/150/65 Hey guys, injuries happen. As will a few blown leads in late innings, costing him a win or three.
   19. pounceanalogica Posted: December 14, 2006 at 03:37 PM (#2261199)
19-8 212innings, 3.46ERA, 178k 67BB.
   20. CFiJ Posted: December 14, 2006 at 03:39 PM (#2261200)
18 / 10 / 191 / 3.24 / 180 / 47

ROY, finishes 3rd in Cy Young voting.
   21. Best Regards, President of Comfort, Esq., LLC Posted: December 14, 2006 at 03:39 PM (#2261202)
0/0/3/0.00/9/0
   22. Sam M. Posted: December 14, 2006 at 03:40 PM (#2261206)
16-6/200.3/3.42/195/81
   23. The Artist Posted: December 14, 2006 at 03:42 PM (#2261208)
16-9, 204 IP, 3.77ERA, 183K, 61BB
   24. Raskolnikov Posted: December 14, 2006 at 03:42 PM (#2261209)
15-9/195IP/3.16/230K/52BB (More Ks than most here have predicted.)
   25. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: December 14, 2006 at 03:42 PM (#2261210)
22-5/ 231 innings/ 2.89 era/ 188 K's /42 walks

Is that the official CFBPS line?
   26. Kyle S Posted: December 14, 2006 at 03:44 PM (#2261212)
14 / 10 / 185 / 4.20 / 155 / 60
   27. PJ Martinez Posted: December 14, 2006 at 03:44 PM (#2261213)
18-7/204.1/3.87/178/51
   28. Craig in MN Posted: December 14, 2006 at 03:50 PM (#2261219)
5 / 3 / 72.2 / 4.12 / 61 / 22
   29. HowardMegdal Posted: December 14, 2006 at 03:50 PM (#2261220)
14-9/179IP/4.12/166K/57BB
   30. winnipegwhip Posted: December 14, 2006 at 03:51 PM (#2261221)
29-4/256.2/2.23/201/32

He throws a wild pitch to lose 1-0 in game 162 (and a postseason berth) and all of New England blame Red Sox management for such a stupid signing.
   31. Frisco Cali Posted: December 14, 2006 at 03:52 PM (#2261222)
21-4/246/2.78/236/62
Cy Rookie of the Young Award
   32. Jonny German Posted: December 14, 2006 at 03:53 PM (#2261225)
10 / 5 / 160 / 4.45 / 110 / 65
   33. Sam M. Posted: December 14, 2006 at 03:53 PM (#2261226)
I would be awfully curious to peek in on the alternate universe in which the Yankees got Matsuzaka and see the alternate Larry Mahnken's prediction for his first-year performance ... ;-)
   34. hpt150 Posted: December 14, 2006 at 03:55 PM (#2261230)
17W 8L 197IP 3.67ERA 174K 54BB

It's going to be interested to see the bidding war for free agent-to be Koji Uehara 12 to 14 months from now. Older than Matsuzaka by 6 or 7 years I think, and not quite the same caliber stuff, but a fine hurler in his own right. Uehara's control is nothing short of amazing.
   35. Best Regards, President of Comfort, Esq., LLC Posted: December 14, 2006 at 03:56 PM (#2261232)
I would be awfully curious to peek in on the alternate universe in which the Yankees got Matsuzaka and see the alternate Larry Mahnken's prediction for his first-year performance ... ;-)

It's going to take me a couple of innings to set the sight on the rifle, thus the 3-inning prediction.

If he was on the Yankees:

5/15/140/5.20/130/100
   36. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: December 14, 2006 at 04:08 PM (#2261247)
17-9, 211.2IP, 3.91, 190K, 58BB
   37. Dave Cyprian Posted: December 14, 2006 at 04:08 PM (#2261248)
15-8 / 166 / 3.86 / 132 / 44
   38. realteamcoach Posted: December 14, 2006 at 04:09 PM (#2261249)
16-9 204 IP 4.09 ERA 148/59
   39. bibigon Posted: December 14, 2006 at 04:12 PM (#2261250)
15-8/200/4.00/195/60

Considered a failure.
   40. PleasePassTheGravy Posted: December 14, 2006 at 04:19 PM (#2261261)
0/1/3/15.00/2/4

Gives up 5 runs over 3 innings against Kansas City. Strikes out Angel Berroa twice before leaving game. Doesn't pitch again in '07...
   41. Tim M Posted: December 14, 2006 at 04:32 PM (#2261276)
9-7, 4.40, 135 IP, 103/41, misses time w/ arm problems.

I don't actually think that will happen, and I REALLY hope not, but I am taking the "under" trying to win that splendid Rose pic.
   42. CFiJ Posted: December 14, 2006 at 04:33 PM (#2261279)
Older than Matsuzaka by 6 or 7 years I think, and not quite the same caliber stuff, but a fine hurler in his own right. Uehara's control is nothing short of amazing.

Five years (although his birthday is in April, and Matsuzaka's is in September). He's quality. U.S. baseball fans may have seem him shut down Team Korea in the WBC.
   43. tfbg9 Posted: December 14, 2006 at 04:40 PM (#2261291)
20-9/210.1/3.60/187/65 Breaks The Jete's right hand, his bodyguard wave-over hand.
   44. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: December 14, 2006 at 04:41 PM (#2261294)
16-11, 5.01 ERA, 204.6 IP, 158/74 K/BB, 36 HR.

called a "bilious frog" by John Henry late in the season when his 3 IP, 11 ER, 4 HR performance against the yankees eliminate the sox from the wild card chase.
   45. Captain Joe Bivens, Elderly Northeastern Jew Posted: December 14, 2006 at 04:42 PM (#2261295)
Oh, and my prediction includes the Cy Young award.
   46. Captain Joe Bivens, Elderly Northeastern Jew Posted: December 14, 2006 at 04:42 PM (#2261297)
And the ROY.
   47. winnipegwhip Posted: December 14, 2006 at 04:49 PM (#2261311)
29-4/256.2/2.23/201/32

Finds cures for cancer and Aids, finds Osama Bin Laden, conclusively solves who killed JFK and stops Global Warming. Oh yes convinces Yankee and Red Sox fans to form a chain between Fenway and Yankee Stadium to sing koombaya and demand world peace.
   48. Kiko Sakata Posted: December 14, 2006 at 04:50 PM (#2261313)
10-12 168 IP 4.45 ERA 155/92 K/BB
   49. bunyon Posted: December 14, 2006 at 04:55 PM (#2261322)
It's going to take me a couple of innings to set the sight on the rifle, thus the 3-inning prediction.

If he was on the Yankees:

5/15/140/5.20/130/100


What, Larry, you winged him in the alternate universe?
   50. dr. scott Posted: December 14, 2006 at 05:31 PM (#2261354)
1 dollar! Wait, I think you have to bid last for that to work...

still Im going with

6-4/80/4.6/35/29

ww, I was all happy till I saw the ida of a bunch of yankee and sox fans holding hands and being happy... that just cant be a good thing.
   51. Latnam's first name is Bob Lemon's middle name Posted: December 14, 2006 at 05:41 PM (#2261373)
W 17/ L 8/ IP 185.6/ ERA 3.54/ K 187/ BB 76
   52. Andere Richtingen Posted: December 14, 2006 at 05:51 PM (#2261388)
15/9/201/3.88/188/67
   53. RickG Posted: December 14, 2006 at 05:57 PM (#2261399)
17-12, 267.0, 3.77, 287/144

That's what he did in the RLPA in 2007...why not replicate it.
   54. Pete Rose Posted: December 14, 2006 at 06:09 PM (#2261416)
Winner recieves an 8x10 Pete Rose print.
Oh man, I'm in!

7-11, 140 IP, 4.63 ERA, 90 K, 150 BB

Anybody want to start some kind of side bet?

Come on, side bet!
   55. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: December 14, 2006 at 06:17 PM (#2261425)
41-12, 454.7 IP, 1.82 ERA, 239 K, 88 BB, 4 HR allowed, 51 starts

He's this generation's Jack Chesbro. Book it!
   56. Schilling's Sprained Ankiel Posted: December 14, 2006 at 06:26 PM (#2261443)
15-9, 178, 4.1 ERA, 201 K, 50BB.
   57. Random Transaction Generator Posted: December 14, 2006 at 06:28 PM (#2261447)
18/8/212/3.88/202/44

And someone better remind us about this prediction thread at the end of the season. I never remember to come back to these things and look at how I did...
   58. Free Rob Base Posted: December 14, 2006 at 06:36 PM (#2261456)
20/7/215/3.15/200/40
   59. Steve Threadair Posted: December 14, 2006 at 06:46 PM (#2261460)
5/11/111/5.11/51/11
   60. Obo Posted: December 14, 2006 at 06:57 PM (#2261467)
Larry stole my thunder, but I'm still going with

0/0/0/-/0/0
   61. Best Regards, President of Comfort, Esq., LLC Posted: December 14, 2006 at 07:04 PM (#2261477)
What, Larry, you winged him in the alternate universe?

In the alternate universe, he pitches for my team, and therefore sucks.
   62. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: December 14, 2006 at 07:09 PM (#2261480)
13 9 173? 4.14 159 68
   63. Шĥy Posted: December 14, 2006 at 07:13 PM (#2261485)
11/7/142/4.38/121/49
   64. AJMcCringleberry Posted: December 14, 2006 at 07:16 PM (#2261486)
16/8/207/3.89/192/52
   65. kamatoa Posted: December 14, 2006 at 07:22 PM (#2261491)
8/14/175/5.03/112/75

"Bilous frog" it is. He'll likely do better than this of course, but a few more people have got to bring the thread averages down for common sense's sake.
   66. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: December 14, 2006 at 07:31 PM (#2261503)
In my universe, he is injured by Jorge Cantu during a bench-clearing brawl in a game against Tampa Bay on July 5.
   67. kthejoker Posted: December 14, 2006 at 07:47 PM (#2261521)
Throwing out Larry, Obo, Rod Bradeln, Gonfalon, and PleasePassTheGravy's "guesses", the average consensus is:

15.6 - 7.8, 194.3 IP, 3.78 ERA, 175 K, 59 BB

Throwing out everybody who predicted 105 innings or less (not that they're bad predictions):

16.3 - 8, 202.3 IP, 3.75, 183 K, 61 BB

I dunno, sounds a little optimistic.
   68. DCA Posted: December 14, 2006 at 08:39 PM (#2261569)
13-10 198.0 4.50 220 96
   69. Guapo Posted: December 14, 2006 at 08:51 PM (#2261577)
13-8 178 3.79 141 53
   70. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: December 14, 2006 at 08:58 PM (#2261584)
Throwing out Larry, Obo, Rod Bradeln, Gonfalon, and PleasePassTheGravy's "guesses", the average consensus is...

Okay, fine, round down my IP estimate to an even 454.
   71. Srul Itza Posted: December 14, 2006 at 09:09 PM (#2261595)
17-8 190 2.90 192 70
   72. baudib Posted: December 14, 2006 at 09:16 PM (#2261604)
17-9 210 3.60 185 65

He will start the All-Star Game.
   73. Buzzards Bay Posted: December 14, 2006 at 09:29 PM (#2261621)
14-8 182 3.54 166 66
   74. Randomly Fluctuating Defensive Metric Posted: December 14, 2006 at 09:41 PM (#2261642)
11-4/110/3.87/72/38

Starts off fantastic, misses some time with an injury, tails off slightly at the end of the season. Huge year [Cy Young?] expected in 2008.
   75. Paul D(uda) Posted: December 14, 2006 at 09:43 PM (#2261646)
Wins / Losses / Innings Pitched / ERA / Strikeouts / Walks

12-12 185.2 4.65 170 60
   76. Steve Threadair Posted: December 14, 2006 at 09:49 PM (#2261652)
Starts off fantastic, misses some time with an injury, tails off

and is traded to the New York Yankees for Emil Brown and Angel Berroa.
   77. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: December 14, 2006 at 10:01 PM (#2261664)
16/8/194.3/3.78/175/59
   78. 3Com Park Posted: December 14, 2006 at 10:10 PM (#2261682)
30/4/228.7/2.83/216/61
   79. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: December 14, 2006 at 10:21 PM (#2261698)
14/8/188/3.83/167/42
He's good, but not out-of-our minds good.
   80. StrangeBrewer5 Posted: December 14, 2006 at 10:30 PM (#2261710)
18/10/202/3.22/172/30..........
and eats 54 hot dogs in twelve minutes to take the world record from Takeru Kobayashi.
   81. Dr. Vaux Posted: December 14, 2006 at 10:39 PM (#2261719)
14/12/180/4.30/140/75
   82. PhillyBooster Posted: December 14, 2006 at 10:43 PM (#2261724)
13/ 9/ 170.3/ 5.50/ 150/ 84

(These is also Jose Contreras's combined 2004 CHI/NY line.)
   83. CraigK Posted: December 14, 2006 at 10:44 PM (#2261726)
Wins / Losses / Innings Pitched / ERA / Strikeouts / Walks

12-3, 149.1 IP, 1.98 ERA, 133-29 K/BB
   84. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: December 14, 2006 at 10:59 PM (#2261745)
13/ 9/ 170.3/ 5.50/ 150/ 84

(These is also Jose Contreras's combined 2004 CHI/NY line.)


I neglected to mention that my guess (#36) was Clemens's line from his last season with the Yankees.

Also, could we get a ruling on whether innings should be divided using .1/.2 or .3/.7? I don't know if Strunk & White, Business Writers, the AP, or any universities have weighed in on the subject.
   85. Dr. Vaux Posted: December 14, 2006 at 11:03 PM (#2261750)
Baseball-reference uses .3/.7, so it's the standard as far as I'm concerned. Plus, it's the form that's mathematically correct. .3 is a third of an inning, and .7 is a rounding-up of two-thirds. No pitcher ever pitched one-tenth of an inning.
   86. CrosbyBird Posted: December 14, 2006 at 11:09 PM (#2261757)
My collection of abacuses connected with copper wire and monkey semen produced this:

17W/9L/203.3IP/3.98ERA/211K/105BB
   87. Jesus Luzardo Maraschino Posted: December 14, 2006 at 11:16 PM (#2261765)
No pitcher ever pitched one-tenth of an inning.

And no pitcher has ever pitched both halves either.
   88. Sparkles Peterson Posted: December 14, 2006 at 11:19 PM (#2261768)
10W/4L/134.3IP/4.22ERA/110K/63BB

Periods of domination followed by periods of giving up way too many HRs followed by one long period of recovering from Tommy John surgery.
   89. Guy Fawkes Posted: December 14, 2006 at 11:23 PM (#2261777)
15W / 10L / 180K / 3.65ERA / 140K / 60BB

he's a strikeout pitcher, he's a high ball pitcher, bad combination in the MLB. He's going to give up alot of longballs, but will win plenty thanks to the Red Sox lineup. I can't see him being that unbelievable dominant ace that some say he will be, but I do see him as a pretty good No. 2 after a year or two in the majors.
   90. bunyon Posted: December 14, 2006 at 11:27 PM (#2261783)
Do folks who follow the Japanese game have any thoughts as to how the strike-zone differs (if it does)? I've read a lot about his being a high ball pitcher. In MLB those aren't strikes. Are thye in Japan? That could really kick his butt.
   91. Darren Posted: December 14, 2006 at 11:44 PM (#2261800)
11/11/111.1/1.11/111/11
   92. Eraser-X is emphatically dominating teh site!!! Posted: December 14, 2006 at 11:50 PM (#2261808)
Where's the Bonds prediction thread from last year? That should be fun....
   93. Eraser-X is emphatically dominating teh site!!! Posted: December 14, 2006 at 11:52 PM (#2261811)
4 CHB hints that he lacks the heart and desire to truly compete on the biggest stage in the world, following a rough patch in late July.


Wasn't he MVP of the biggest stage in the world last year?
   94. Rough Carrigan Posted: December 15, 2006 at 12:10 AM (#2261822)
18-7/202 IP/3.22 ERA/187 K/47 BB
   95. Jarrod HypnerotomachiaPoliphili (TeddyF.Ballgame) Posted: December 15, 2006 at 12:11 AM (#2261823)
I'll go with the group. I was going to wait until there were a hundred predictions and then take the average, but kthejoker did the work for me ahead of time and says the consensus is:

15.6 - 7.8, 194.3 IP, 3.78 ERA, 175 K, 59 BB

I guess I have to round off, so here's my guess:

16-8/194.3IP/3.78ERA/175K/59BB
   96. The Piehole of David Wells Posted: December 15, 2006 at 12:56 AM (#2261858)
19-4/212 IP/3.07 ERA/205 K/ 55 BB
2nd in Cy Young, Wins ROY
   97. number 6 Posted: December 15, 2006 at 01:34 AM (#2261896)
15/9/175/3.59/189/63
   98. number 6 Posted: December 15, 2006 at 01:35 AM (#2261897)
15/9/175/3.59/189/63
   99. kirkhead Posted: December 15, 2006 at 01:48 AM (#2261910)
16-8/186/3.81/188/68
   100. Vin Middle Posted: December 15, 2006 at 02:18 AM (#2261942)
21/5/201.2/3.21/197/52
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