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Friday, July 30, 2004

The Official Mets Fan Self-Immolation Thread

For those of you who can’t bear to continue. (Thanks to Gold Star For Robot Boy for the idea.)

The definitely immoral Eric Enders Posted: July 30, 2004 at 11:44 PM | 988 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mets

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   401. Joey B. is counting the days to Trea Turner Posted: July 31, 2015 at 04:34 PM (#5010667)
What in the world are you talking trash for, Psychopath? The Mets were way better than your sorry-ass North Miami Senior Marlins even before you guys dismantled your entire club.

You should just go back to the Red Diaper Doper Baby Thread of Shame and get used to it, because you're going to be stuck in there for years.
   402. Banta Posted: July 31, 2015 at 10:45 PM (#5010863)
That might have been a reasonable excuse to trade him for Carlos Zambrano.

I've often wondered which which mindset Mets management was under when they made that trade: that they traded for Victor thinking he was actually Carlos or they traded for Victor knowing exactly who he was.
   403. Adam Starblind Posted: August 01, 2015 at 08:30 AM (#5010950)
[402] Well, a couple of days later on WFAN, Fred Wilpon said Victor [was] one of the top power pitchers in the American League. So the mindset seems to have been one of a complete imbecile.
   404. Bote Man Posted: August 01, 2015 at 09:28 AM (#5010963)
During Friday night's pre-game interview on Brewers radio, Uecker asked Melvin about the Gomez trade. The takeaway line was, "There was a level of discomfort with the trade." That's some D.C.-grade passive voice usage there to avoid placing responsibility on whomever backed out.
   405. Bote Man Posted: September 07, 2015 at 12:52 PM (#5033276)
Is this the official Matt Harvey Shutdown thread??
   406. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 07, 2015 at 01:05 PM (#5033287)
A little early, no? They haven't thrown the first pitch yet. Or is it never too early in Metsopotamia?
   407. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: September 07, 2015 at 01:14 PM (#5033293)
WE'RE DOOMED.
   408. Howie Menckel Posted: September 07, 2015 at 01:23 PM (#5033300)

Granderson on 3rd, no one out in 1st - and Mets don't score.

get the bonfire ready...
   409. greenback needs a ride, not ammo Posted: September 07, 2015 at 01:25 PM (#5033304)
Rick Peterson could fix Matt Harvey in ten minutes.
   410. bobm Posted: September 07, 2015 at 01:48 PM (#5033317)
Get the bon dumpster fire ready...

FTFY
   411. Howie Menckel Posted: September 07, 2015 at 02:09 PM (#5033334)

3 solo HR off Scherzer so far

Clippard threw 41 pitches yesterday, so he'd be stretched out enough to pitch the last 4 innings today. what could go wrong?..
   412. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 07, 2015 at 02:17 PM (#5033345)
. . . what could go wrong?

Grand Slam?
   413. Bote Man Posted: September 07, 2015 at 02:54 PM (#5033393)
. . . what could go wrong?

Carlos Torres could leave with a leg injury??
   414. Howie Menckel Posted: September 07, 2015 at 05:16 PM (#5033533)

Chris Johnson ‏@masnCJ 15m15 minutes ago

Bryce Harper when asked about the atmosphere of the crowd at #Nats Park: "I mean, they left in the seventh. That's pretty brutal."

...........

(to be fair, most of the early departures likely were Mets fans who mistakenly had a bad feeling about this one.....)
   415. Bote Man Posted: September 07, 2015 at 05:43 PM (#5033553)
The Nats offense left in the 5th inning so the Nats fans were being generous by waiting until the 7th.

Anyway, I guess Mets fans can break out the fire extinguishers to stop the self-immolation as this loss puts the Nats 6 games back with 5 head-to-head Mets games remaining. I still don't see the Nats winning the NL East.
   416. cHiEf iMpaCt oFfiCEr JE Posted: September 07, 2015 at 05:52 PM (#5033562)
(to be fair, most of the early departures likely were Mets fans who mistakenly had a bad feeling about this one.....)

Not bloody likely.
   417. Lassus Posted: September 07, 2015 at 06:03 PM (#5033564)
Anyway, I guess Mets fans can break out the fire extinguishers to stop the self-immolation

Also not bloody likely.


as this loss puts the Nats 6 games back with 5 head-to-head Mets games remaining.

No, 5 back with 5 remaining.


I still don't see the Nats winning the NL East.

I will continue to defy your reverse jinx.


   418. Bote Man Posted: September 07, 2015 at 07:27 PM (#5033595)
Well, now Jordan Zimmermann's health might be in question.

Chelsea Janes @chelsea_janes
Keep an eye on Jordan Zimmermann, who may well be fine, but played catch with a trainer nearby Monday. Washington Post article (limited views before registration required)

Cogent part:
Jordan Zimmermann is scheduled to start Tuesday, and no one around the Nationals has suggested he will not. But it is worth noting that Zimmermann played catch on the field not long before Monday’s game under close supervision of pitching coach Steve McCatty and a Nationals trainer. Next-day starters rarely play catch separately like that, and Zimmermann tends to do so much earlier in the day. Starters rarely play catch under such staunch supervision.


Still chewing your fingernails??
   419. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: September 07, 2015 at 07:44 PM (#5033601)
Not bloody likely.


WE'RE STILL DOOMED.

Still chewing your fingernails??


The Mets have been shut out in games started by the following pitchers this year:
Gio Gonzalez (99 ERA+)
Doug Fister (88 ERA+)
Kyle Lohse (65 ERA+)
Carlos Martinez (129 ERA+)
Christopher Heston (106 ERA+)
Drew Hutchison (78 ERA+)
Julio Teheran (85 ERA+)
Kyle Hendricks (96 ERA+)
Jon Lester (109 ERA+)
Matt Cain (62 ERA+)
Clayton Kershaw (173 ERA+)

Other than Clayton Kershaw and Carlos Martinez, those are not guys having especially good years. Whoever pitches for Washington tomorrow, including the guy in the Teddy Roosevelt mascot head, has a shot at shutting out the Mets.
   420. Bote Man Posted: September 07, 2015 at 10:54 PM (#5033665)
The Mets have been shut out in games started by the following pitchers this year:

Was that before or after the deadline acquisitions of Cespedes, et al??
   421. bobm Posted: September 07, 2015 at 10:59 PM (#5033667)
[420] All before.

For 2015, Playing for NYM, (requiring R=0), sorted by earliest date

                             
Rk         Date  Tm Opp  Rslt
1    2015-05-02 NYM WSN L 0-1
2    2015-05-03 NYM WSN L 0-1
3    2015-05-15 NYM MIL L 0-7
4    2015-05-20 NYM STL L 0-9
5    2015-06-09 NYM SFG L 0-5
6    2015-06-17 NYM TOR L 0-8
7    2015-06-21 NYM ATL L 0-1
8    2015-06-30 NYM CHC L 0-1
9    2015-07-01 NYM CHC L 0-2
10   2015-07-07 NYM SFG L 0-3
11   2015-07-23 NYM LAD L 0-3


Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/7/2015.
   422. Howie Menckel Posted: September 07, 2015 at 11:07 PM (#5033672)
Mets are averaging 6 runs a game since July 25, and lead in basically all NL offensive categories in that span. They were last in many of them until that time....
   423. bobm Posted: September 07, 2015 at 11:20 PM (#5033678)
[420] Mets batting during those 11 shutouts:

           Batter  AB    BA
       Lucas Duda  41  .122 
Curtis Granderson  38  .184 
     Juan Lagares  33  .242 
     Ruben Tejada  30  .067 
    Wilmer Flores  29  .103 
    Daniel Murphy  30  .167 
  Michael Cuddyer  25  .080 
   Kevin Plawecki  21  .286 
    John Mayberry  17  .118 
    Eric Campbell  15  .067 
   Dilson Herrera  13  .154 
   Anthony Recker   7  .000   
    Bartolo Colon   8  .000   
Darrell Ceciliani   7  .143 
    Johnny Monell   7  .000   
 Kirk Nieuwenhuis   5  .000 
        Jon Niese   4  .000   
  Travis d'Arnaud   3  .000
       Dillon Gee   2  .500 
      Matt Harvey   2  .000   
      Daniel Muno   1  .000   
 Noah Syndergaard   1  .000   
            Total 339  .133

   424. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: September 08, 2015 at 12:28 AM (#5033699)
Was that before or after the deadline acquisitions of Cespedes, et al??


Oh sure, have fun with cherry picked selective endpoints.
   425. Bote Man Posted: September 08, 2015 at 07:48 AM (#5033716)
[420] All before.

Mets are averaging 6 runs a game since July 25, and lead in basically all NL offensive categories in that span. They were last in many of them until that time....

The sky is falling! DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM!!
   426. Lassus Posted: September 08, 2015 at 08:36 AM (#5033721)
The sky is falling! DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM!!

Well, no, but we ain't won yet either.
   427. formerly dp Posted: September 08, 2015 at 09:59 AM (#5033746)
Well, no, but we ain't won yet either.
Yeah. The Nats were hot coming into this series--playing poor teams, but still, seemed to have righted the ship. The Mets still have 5 games left to play against them, and 3 against a still-in-the-hunt Yankee team. Plenty of opportunities to squander that lead. I don't think it will happen: the rotation has too many guys capable of shutdown performances, and the lineup has enough depth that a simultaneous slump from all eight spots isn't very likely. But they're still figuring out the pen a week into September, so it's easy to see a few games here going south down the stretch. And 2007. And 2008.
   428. formerly dp Posted: September 08, 2015 at 10:23 AM (#5033754)
And it's awesome that in addition to the Harvey threads totally taking over BTF, a Met thread from 2004 is currently polluting the eyeballs of everyone who glances at the Hot Topics sidebar.
   429. and Posted: September 08, 2015 at 10:31 AM (#5033762)
People may think the Red Sox and Yankees dominate this site but, if they do, it only means they weren't around back when the Mets were good.
   430. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: September 08, 2015 at 07:11 PM (#5034134)
I still remember where I was when I got word about the Kazmir trade. That's how traumatic it was.

This team knows how to #### with its fans.
   431. Bote Man Posted: September 08, 2015 at 11:09 PM (#5034403)
This team knows how to #### with its fans.

I can only assume that you are talking about the Nationals. Because even when Matty makes a lot of right moves his team goes A.W.O.L. on him. #brutal
   432. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: September 08, 2015 at 11:19 PM (#5034421)
That was brutal. You have my earnest sympathies.
   433. zack Posted: September 08, 2015 at 11:55 PM (#5034467)
It is weird, as a Mets fan that spent a decade living in DC, to be competing with the Nationals. The only time that both teams reached even 80 wins in the same year was the Nats first, when the teams finished 3rd and 5th in the division.
   434. and Posted: September 21, 2015 at 12:30 PM (#5043333)
Bump
   435. Lassus Posted: September 21, 2015 at 01:19 PM (#5043372)
THANKS A LOT, BUNYON






That being said, yes, I am mentally and emotionally preparing myself to lose the division at this point.
   436. billyshears Posted: September 21, 2015 at 01:29 PM (#5043383)
I am not doing very well right now.
   437. The usual palaver and twaddle (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: September 21, 2015 at 01:34 PM (#5043387)
All logic is being defied. I know in my head that the Mets have the best chance at this, that if they go 7-6, the Nats will have to go 13-0 and that 10 of those 13 are against ATL/CIN/PHL.

So why is my stomach knotted?
   438. Lassus Posted: September 21, 2015 at 01:48 PM (#5043396)
Because we currently don't look like we're capable of going 7-6. The team seems visibly deflated, like they weren't prepared for the inevitable rough patch after such a run of dominance. All armchair psychology at this point, obviously, but they really have not looked great these last two series.
   439. Dog on the sidewalk has an ugly bracelet Posted: September 21, 2015 at 03:12 PM (#5043464)
It's (almost) over. I'm not worried. If the Nats make it to within 3 going into the last weekend, I will feel differently.

I apologize for tempting fate, but I'm just being honest.
   440. cHiEf iMpaCt oFfiCEr JE Posted: September 21, 2015 at 03:23 PM (#5043472)
It's (almost) over. I'm not worried. If the Nats make it to within 3 going into the last weekend, I will feel differently.

I apologize for tempting fate, but I'm just being honest.

METS
Braves at home: 3
Reds on the road: 4
Phillies on the road: 3
Nats at home: 3

NATS
Orioles at home: 3
Phillies at home: 3
Reds at home: 1
Braves on the road: 3
Mets on the road: 3

Never mind how the Nats fare, do we really believe that our guys will do worse than 6-4 over the next 10?

Only answer if you're reasonably sober.
   441. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: September 21, 2015 at 03:43 PM (#5043480)
METS
Braves at home: 3
Reds on the road: 4
Phillies on the road: 3
Nats at home: 3

NATS
Orioles at home: 3
Phillies at home: 3
Reds at home: 1
Braves on the road: 3
Mets on the road: 3

Never mind how the Nats fare, do we really believe that our guys will do worse than 6-4 over the next 10?

Only answer if you're reasonably sober.


I think they'll go exactly 6 and 4**, and the Nats will go 8 and 2***, which will render the final series meaningless. If the Mets manage to blow this lead, I'm going to be attending a whole lot of funerals.

** Splitting with the Reds, and 2-1 against the Braves and Phillies

*** 1-2 against the Orioles, and winning all the rest after it's too late.
   442. billyshears Posted: September 21, 2015 at 03:55 PM (#5043487)
I have to be honest, I understand what others are saying rationally, but right now, I'm at whatever DEFCON is the worst DEFCON. I hadn't realized how badly I had been scarred by 2007 until the Mets lost their 8-game winning streak, when my mindset went from everything's great to we're totally ###### in about 0.2 seconds flat.
   443. Lassus Posted: September 21, 2015 at 04:03 PM (#5043492)
Never mind how the Nats fare, do we really believe that our guys will do worse than 6-4 over the next 10?

We have lost the last two series, and have looked terrible doing so: 4-6. I don't drink, and I don't think going .500 over the next 10 sounds unreasonable in the slightest. Of course the Nats have to do insanely well, but I'm not seeing that as impossible other.

I want to be clear. I do not think we WILL lose the division. But I certainly think we CAN lose the division, hence my mental preparation referred to above.
   444. Bote Man Posted: September 21, 2015 at 05:56 PM (#5043552)
You can mark down tonight's game with a great big Curly L as Gio "Temper Tantrum" Gonzalez takes the mound for the Nats. Magic Number = 7 already.

I have to immolate myself on a Mets thread, that's how bad things have gotten for the Nats fans.
   445. billyshears Posted: September 21, 2015 at 06:51 PM (#5043576)
While we sympathize with your plight, your reverse jinxes will receive no quarter around these parts.
   446. Bote Man Posted: September 21, 2015 at 07:15 PM (#5043582)
Man! You guys are gooooood!
   447. Baldrick Posted: September 21, 2015 at 07:24 PM (#5043589)
As a fan of baseball, with no particular rooting interests here, I am super annoyed that the Nats couldn't get even one game out of that series a couple weeks ago. A 4 game lead with two weeks left is definitely still a race, especially if they play each other to close out the year.

Six games is really pushing it, though. Reverse-jinxing aside, chances are not only VERY low that your boys are going to blow it, it's pretty unlikely that the final series ends up even mattering. But hope springs eternal...
   448. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 21, 2015 at 08:13 PM (#5043613)
. . . chances are not only VERY low that your boys are going to blow it, it's pretty unlikely that the final series ends up even mattering.

So, you're saying it's over?
   449. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: September 21, 2015 at 08:32 PM (#5043628)
Nats-O's game rescheduled for 4:05 Thursday, 5 minutes after the Pope leaves Andrews AF Base after tying up DC traffic for much of the day.
   450. Adam Starblind Posted: September 21, 2015 at 08:48 PM (#5043636)
Up 2-0 on the Braves in the 6th, and I just know they're going to blow it.
   451. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 21, 2015 at 09:11 PM (#5043656)
Terry Collins "fuming" about having to pull Harvey was incredibly unwise, considering that the Mets still have a 98% chance to win the division. He can fume in private until the Mets actually blow it. Because they won't. (I say this as someone who is firmly on the management's side of this issue).

Of course, though I live and Brooklyn and often wear my favorite well-worn psuedo-vintage Mets shirt (featuring Mr. Met!) I have never actually been a Mets fan so I don't have to think about this from a self-immolation perspective.

   452. Swoboda is freedom Posted: September 21, 2015 at 10:11 PM (#5043696)
Felling better now that they won.
   453. cHiEf iMpaCt oFfiCEr JE Posted: September 21, 2015 at 10:16 PM (#5043699)
Were it not for the Pope's visit, I'm pretty sure the Nats would have called the game well before the fans showed up to the ballpark. And as noted elsewhere, this Calvin Coolidge bobblehead is quite possibly the most heinous toy creature ever manufactured.
   454. Lassus Posted: September 21, 2015 at 10:40 PM (#5043727)
I'll echo Swoboda. But, I won't be satisfied until the math tells me to be so.
   455. cHiEf iMpaCt oFfiCEr JE Posted: September 21, 2015 at 10:54 PM (#5043740)
I'll echo Swoboda. But, I won't be satisfied until the math tells me to be so.

You've got to be pure joy around the house right now. For her sake, I hope the woman is far away visiting family.
   456. Bote Man Posted: September 21, 2015 at 10:59 PM (#5043741)
Felling better now that they won.

How is this even possible??? The way I read this some of yous guys are considering hiring a professional hand wringer to spell you overnight. Do Mets fans hop around with extra anxiety like that bro in the Draft Kings TV ad??
   457. Howie Menckel Posted: September 21, 2015 at 11:15 PM (#5043743)

Post Traumatic Title Collapse Disorder

it's a thing, and it lasts up to 10 years or more
   458. bobm Posted: September 21, 2015 at 11:33 PM (#5043748)
Gm#  2007 2007  2007   2007        2015 2015  2015   2015
      Opp  W/L   W-L     GB         Opp  W/L   W-L     GB

135 @ ATL    W 75-60 up 3.0       @ MIA    W 75-60 up 5.0 
136 @ ATL    W 76-60 up 4.0       @ MIA    L 75-61 up 4.0 
137 @ CIN    W 77-60 up 5.0       @ WSN    W 76-61 up 5.0 
138 @ CIN    W 78-60 up 5.0       @ WSN    W 77-61 up 6.0 
139 @ CIN    L 78-61 up 5.0       @ WSN    W 78-61 up 7.0 
140   HOU    W 79-61 up 6.0       @ ATL    W 79-61 up 7.5 
141   HOU    W 80-61 up 6.0       @ ATL    W 80-61 up 8.5 
142   HOU    W 81-61 up 6.0       @ ATL    W 81-61 up 9.5 
143   ATL    W 82-61 up 6.0       @ ATL    W 82-61 up 9.5 
144   ATL    L 82-62 up 6.0         MIA    W 83-61 up 9.5 
145   ATL    W 83-62 up 7.0         MIA    L 83-62 up 8.5 
146   PHI    L 83-63 up 5.5         MIA    L 83-63 up 7.5 
147   PHI    L 83-64 up 4.5         NYY    W 84-63 up 8.0 
148   PHI    L 83-65 up 3.5         NYY    L 84-64 up 7.0 
149 @ WSN    L 83-66 up 2.5         NYY    L 84-65 up 6.0 
150 @ WSN    L 83-67 up 1.5         ATL    W 85-65 up 6.5
 
151 @ WSN    W 84-67 up 2.5         ATL    
152 @ FLA    L 84-68 up 1.5         ATL    
153 @ FLA    W 85-68 up 1.5       @ CIN    
154 @ FLA    W 86-68 up 1.5       @ CIN    
155 @ FLA    W 87-68 up 2.5       @ CIN    
156   WSN    L 87-69 up 2.0       @ CIN    
157   WSN    L 87-70 up 2.0       @ PHI    
158   WSN    L 87-71 up 1.0       @ PHI    
159   STL    L 87-72   Tied       @ PHI    
160   FLA    L 87-73      1         WSN    
161   FLA    W 88-73   Tied         WSN    
162   FLA    L 88-74      1         WSN   
   459. Howie Menckel Posted: September 21, 2015 at 11:41 PM (#5043751)

great chart
   460. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 21, 2015 at 11:58 PM (#5043752)
great chart

Actually yeah. Game 139 this year, after the sweep, is when I thought it was essentially over. 3 games later I thought it was totally over. No good reason to change my mind yet.
   461. Bote Man Posted: September 22, 2015 at 12:11 AM (#5043758)
Agreed. Before that series Nats fans were all abuzz talking about how even if the Nats came out of game 139 winning 1 of 3 it could be considered a good achievement. That sweep was the back-breaker.
   462. Adam Starblind Posted: September 22, 2015 at 07:20 AM (#5043784)
Very cool, bobm. Any way to compare the magic numbers?
   463. and Posted: September 22, 2015 at 08:17 AM (#5043793)
It is a great chart and illustrates that they're in much better shape. It also shows, if you're of a particular mind, that you can drop 5.5 games in a 6 game span. And I have to say, I get why that would leave a scar.

THANKS A LOT, BUNYON

You're welcome. I was talking to a non-online friend who is a Met fan and he was expressing worry. I was happy to be there for him to vent to. I thought you guys might need some help, as well.

   464. Lassus Posted: September 22, 2015 at 09:05 AM (#5043824)
great chart

There was a lot of bad there, but I remember losing the game and a half in one day, and that seemed like the death blow right at the start.
   465. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: September 22, 2015 at 09:15 AM (#5043831)
A key difference between 2007 and 2015 is that the teams that the Mets are playing this year down the stretch are worse.
   466. The usual palaver and twaddle (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: September 22, 2015 at 09:18 AM (#5043835)
[462] Adam, after game 145 (seven-up-with-seventeen-to-play), the magic number was 11. After game 158, it was 5.

And I'm doing this from painful, painful memory. Like you don't even know.
   467. The usual palaver and twaddle (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: September 22, 2015 at 09:24 AM (#5043840)
I can't figure out how they lost that extra half-game after gm 146.
   468. cHiEf iMpaCt oFfiCEr JE Posted: September 22, 2015 at 09:25 AM (#5043843)
A key difference between 2007 and 2015 is that the teams that the Mets are playing this year down the stretch are worse.

Would we also agree that, whatever Terry's faults, he's a considerably better skipper than Willie?

EDIT:
I can't figure out how they lost that extra half-game after gm 146.

In all likelihood, the Phils swept a doubleheader.
   469. The usual palaver and twaddle (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: September 22, 2015 at 09:28 AM (#5043848)
In all likelihood, the Phils swept a doubleheader.

They were playing the Phillies. Wouldn't that mean a 2-game loss?
   470. cHiEf iMpaCt oFfiCEr JE Posted: September 22, 2015 at 09:31 AM (#5043852)
They were playing the Phillies. Wouldn't that mean a 2-game loss?

Ah, good point. There are no dates provided so now I'm guessing the Phils played and won a game in between while the Amazins had an off day.
   471. The usual palaver and twaddle (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: September 22, 2015 at 09:32 AM (#5043853)
Here's another key: the Mets' record this year is 2 games better at this point than it was in '07, so even if they have an identical collapse -- numbers-wise -- they still win the division by a game.
   472. The usual palaver and twaddle (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: September 22, 2015 at 09:33 AM (#5043855)
Ah, good point. There are no dates provided so now I'm guessing the Phils played and won a game in between while the Amazins had an off day.

That must be it.
   473. Adam Starblind Posted: September 22, 2015 at 09:36 AM (#5043860)
Another big difference in 2015 from both 2007 and 2008 is that in those years glaring weaknesses crashed the team--starting pitching in 2007 (remember when they started Phil Humber on like 11 days rest?) and the bullpen in 2008 (Ayala from getting released to being installed as the Mets closer within a span of a few days). I can't really see anything like those things happening with this team.
   474. bobm Posted: September 22, 2015 at 10:40 AM (#5043918)
Adam, after game 145 (seven-up-with-seventeen-to-play), the magic number was 11. After game 158, it was 5.

And I'm doing this from painful, painful memory. Like you don't even know.


My calculation is slightly different.

Mets  2007  2015
Gm#  MAGIC MAGIC
135     25    23
136     23    23
137     21    21
138     20    19
139     19    17
140     17    16
141     16    14
142     15    12
143     14    11
144     13    10
145     11    10
146     11    10
147     11     8
148     11     8
149     11     8
150     11     7
151      9
152      9
153      8
154      7
155      5
156      5
157      4
158      4
159      4
160      4
161      2
162      2
   475. Adam Starblind Posted: September 22, 2015 at 11:11 AM (#5043956)
So we're ahead of the game there too. *deep breaths*
   476. billyshears Posted: September 22, 2015 at 11:15 AM (#5043963)
I hadn't remembered that (a) the 2007 team was playing so well before the collapse and (b) that they actually righted the ship and won 4 out of 5 in the middle of the collapse.
   477. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: September 22, 2015 at 11:28 AM (#5043987)
I'm glad I was at a wedding this past weekend so that I didn't have to watch them drop 2 of 3 to the Yankees. But man, I'm not going to lie that I'm still deeply concerned. If the Mets go 2-8 and the Nats go 8-2 then I believe they'll have a chance to tie the division if they sweep the Mets.
   478. cHiEf iMpaCt oFfiCEr JE Posted: September 22, 2015 at 11:42 AM (#5044002)
But man, I'm not going to lie that I'm still deeply concerned. If the Mets go 2-8 and the Nats go 8-2 then I believe they'll have a chance to tie the division if they sweep the Mets.

In other words, you'd be a way-happier human today if the Mets were six games behind the Nats.
   479. zack Posted: September 22, 2015 at 12:02 PM (#5044025)
Another big difference in 2015 from both 2007 and 2008 is that in those years glaring weaknesses crashed the team--starting pitching in 2007 (remember when they started Phil Humber on like 11 days rest?) and the bullpen in 2008

Was just looking up what happened to the 2007 staff, I had NO IDEA that Oliver Perez was still drawing MLB paychecks as a mediocre reliever. Mike Pelfrey is still Mike Pelfrey, currently enjoying one of his random decent years. I think Parnell is the only guy still standing from the 2008 pen.
   480. Conor Posted: September 22, 2015 at 12:32 PM (#5044046)
Can't believe I was 20 when this thread started.

I've been panicking, but another way in this is (hopefully) different from 07 is the speed at which it happened. Mets entered the final 17 games of the year with a 6.5 game lead, but were swept right away in three games, so it went from 6.5 with 17 to 3.5 with 14 to play. Obviously still really difficult to blow that lead. I'm just hoping the final 3 of the year are meaningless.
   481. Lassus Posted: September 22, 2015 at 12:37 PM (#5044052)
In other words, you'd be a way-happier human today if the Mets were six games behind the Nats.

WhyTF do you keep saying this?
   482. and Posted: September 22, 2015 at 01:08 PM (#5044097)
3.5 with 14 to play. Obviously still really difficult to blow that lead.

Not really.

Team A up 3.5 over Team B with 14 to go.

A 7-7
B 11-4

B wins. 11-4 is a very good stretch. But it's not any kind of superfluky super team run. And .500 over 14 games must be common as dirt even for division winners. In 2007, once the Mets dropped the three games at the start of the last 17, it wasn't a historic collapse.
   483. Lassus Posted: September 22, 2015 at 01:20 PM (#5044105)
We actually lost a 7 game lead over 14 games anyhow.
   484. bobm Posted: September 22, 2015 at 01:24 PM (#5044108)
In 2007, once the Mets dropped the three games at the start of the last 17, it wasn't a historic collapse.

It's the difference between 98% probability of making the playoffs and a mere 50% (EDITED ON SECOND THOUGHT) 75% chance.
   485. and Posted: September 22, 2015 at 01:36 PM (#5044122)
It's the difference between 98% probability of making the playoffs and a mere 50% (EDITED ON SECOND THOUGHT) 75% chance.

I'm glad I didn't reply right away. I was trying to figure out what I was missing.
   486. Conor Posted: September 22, 2015 at 01:43 PM (#5044130)
Not really.

Team A up 3.5 over Team B with 14 to go.

A 7-7
B 11-4

B wins. 11-4 is a very good stretch. But it's not any kind of superfluky super team run. And .500 over 14 games must be common as dirt even for division winners. In 2007, once the Mets dropped the three games at the start of the last 17, it wasn't a historic collapse.


I have no idea, but assuming there are no head to head games (as was the case here), I feel like that's at least 85-90% probability? I concede I'm making that number up, but it's got to be really high. Not like 7 with 17 to play, but still pretty rare. Unless you're the Mets, who basically did that the next year also.
   487. PreservedFish Posted: September 22, 2015 at 01:49 PM (#5044135)
I do not share your guys' nerves. I feel like this year has been so charmed already. A collapse would be disappointing of course but it wouldn't put a dagger through my heart like it did in 2007.
   488. The usual palaver and twaddle (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: September 22, 2015 at 01:55 PM (#5044137)
2007 was weird from the start. The Mets came out like gangbusters (remember the Chris Dial headline "Sector 1, Secure" on the "Team Blogs" that existed back then?) Then in June, they started consistently losing to teams they should have been beating. This was an entitled, hubristic bunch, who walked around 2007 like they owned the place. and when they had to muster reserves when the heat was on, they couldn't do it.

I blame Randolph & Glavine...
   489. Baldrick Posted: September 22, 2015 at 01:56 PM (#5044138)
B wins. 11-4 is a very good stretch. But it's not any kind of superfluky super team run. And .500 over 14 games must be common as dirt even for division winners. In 2007, once the Mets dropped the three games at the start of the last 17, it wasn't a historic collapse.

The problem with this sort of analysis is that I could flip heads seven straight times, which would be composed of a set of discrete events that are (by definition) 50/50 chances. But when you start aggregating events and you need them to align TOGETHER, the improbabilities add up quickly.

For instance, a .500 team would go 11-4 about 4% of the time in a random set of 15 games. And that still only works if we assume the other team went .500.

Maybe it's just a disagreement over what counts as a 'historic collapse.' And I agree that dropping 4 games in two weeks probably isn't historic. It's just a big collapse at an inopportune time. But the original comment here was that it was "still really difficult to blow that lead" and that seems right.
   490. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: September 22, 2015 at 02:08 PM (#5044152)
not looking to pick a fight but i always thought willie got a raw deal in ny

   491. and Posted: September 22, 2015 at 02:16 PM (#5044161)
And I agree that dropping 4 games in two weeks probably isn't historic.

That's all I'm saying. How often do teams have 4 game swings in two weeks? Fairly often. Not every two weeks but you could probably find several examples per year. Sure, it's unlikely.

An 8 game swing in 17 games is altogether different.
   492. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: September 22, 2015 at 02:37 PM (#5044172)
I think people tend to forget that the Mets were not an overwhelming favorite going into the 2007 season. There's a reason Rollins said the Phillies were the team to beat. The Mets went into 2007 relying on two 41 year old at the top of the rotation (Duque and Glavine), a guy a bad Pirates team essentially gave up on(Perez), a guy a bad Orioles gave up on(Maine), an unproven rookie pitcher who had not dominated the upper levels of the minors (Pelf), and ended up relying at times on a guy a bad Devil Rays team had given up on. There seemed to be an assumption that Pedro was going to come back and be a frontline starter for them, and he actually did very well considering the injury he was coming back from, but that was a team that was in dire need of starters at the deadline.

It was surprising that the Mets were up 7 games in September. For me, the 2008 season was much more disappointing to me.

   493. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: September 22, 2015 at 02:39 PM (#5044173)
I think people tend to forget that the Mets were not an overwhelming favorite going into the 2007 season. There's a reason Rollins said the Phillies were the team to beat. The Mets went into 2007 relying on two 41 year old at the top of the rotation (Duque and Glavine), a guy a bad Pirates team essentially gave up on(Perez), a guy a bad Orioles gave up on(Maine), an unproven rookie pitcher who had not dominated the upper levels of the minors (Pelf), and ended up relying at times on a guy a bad Devil Rays team had given up on. There seemed to be an assumption that Pedro was going to come back and be a frontline starter for them, and he actually did very well considering the injury he was coming back from, but that was a team that was in dire need of starters at the deadline.

It was surprising that the Mets were up 7 games in September. For me, the 2008 season was much more disappointing to me.

   494. cHiEf iMpaCt oFfiCEr JE Posted: September 22, 2015 at 02:49 PM (#5044181)
WhyTF do you keep saying this?

How about, because it's true? A single, hardly unprecedented collapse in our 50+ year history has turned some of you into the Mopersons.
   495. Lassus Posted: September 22, 2015 at 03:41 PM (#5044219)
How about, because it's true? A single, hardly unprecedented collapse in our 50+ year history has turned some of you into the Mopersons.

You concluding that anxiety about the solidity of current success is the same as a preference for failure should not astound me.
   496. billyshears Posted: September 22, 2015 at 03:47 PM (#5044224)
a guy a bad Orioles gave up on(Maine)


I still think Maine could have been really good if he didn't get hurt. He had the fastball that Pelfrey was purported to have. And Maine did put up one of the great pitching performances in Mets history on the second to last day of that season.
   497. Adam Starblind Posted: September 22, 2015 at 04:13 PM (#5044240)
On another topic, last night I got to wondering if maybe Daniel Murphy is a dumbass. Did you ever notice the press never really interviews him? You'd think he'd be the kind of guy they'd love (i.e., a white guy they would label "gritty" because journalists are also mostly dumbasses). But maybe he's too dumb to talk to even by athlete standards? And then you add in the relatively frequent mental mistakes (last night's egregious base"running" blunder got me thinking), and ...

Daniel Murphy: idiot?
   498. Lassus Posted: September 22, 2015 at 04:31 PM (#5044245)
He actually is pretty well-spoken when he's interviewed.
   499. Conor Posted: September 22, 2015 at 05:26 PM (#5044266)
I remember really liking Maine, but in looking at his stats, I'm not totally sure why. He did have a live fastball, but he seemed to give up so many foul balls, and he was always good for at least one four pitch walk a game.

I have this memory, no idea if I made it up or not, of him opening a game by walking the bases loaded on 12 pitches.
   500. zack Posted: September 22, 2015 at 05:32 PM (#5044268)
I really liked Maine, when I throw I still emulate his arm action. But you have to separate Maine the healthy pitcher from Maine the reality, because the former never existed. IIRC his shoulder was mush by the time he made the majors but he pretended that it wasn't (including to management); as a result he could never keep his stuff together.
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