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Monday, October 19, 2020

The Rays and Dodgers Are No. 1 Seeds—but This World Series Matchup Is an Anomaly

Thus, the two top seeds will meet in the World Series for only the second time this century, joining the 2013 matchup between the Red Sox and Cardinals. I’ve criticized expanded playoffs for their potential for chaos and devaluing of great teams, arguing—among other reasons—that the best clubs would no longer be as likely to advance as far. This first dabble with a 16-team bracket would seem to dampen any such concerns.

But a sample size of one is not actually sufficient to disprove that possibility, and in fact, analyzing just how unlikely this Rays-Dodgers matchup is provides cause for even more appreciation of both teams’ feats in navigating the tricky playoff field.

According to FanGraphs’ odds before the playoffs began, the Dodgers were the favorite to reach the World Series this year—but only with a 29.1 percent chance. The Rays, meanwhile, were down at 13.8 percent because the projection system thought they were no better than potential opponents like the Yankees and Twins. Multiply those two percentages together, and FanGraphs gave this particular World Series matchup just a 4 percent chance of occuring.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: October 19, 2020 at 11:41 AM | 15 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: world series

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   1. The Duke Posted: October 19, 2020 at 12:34 PM (#5983914)
I’m glad to see these two teams. I try not to like the dodgers but I really do like them. Such a great group of players. And who can argue with the Rays. Every team in baseball will now try to emulate them with no season ticket revenue coming in.

I’m rooting for the Dodgers - it just seems if the baseball universe is to be made whole after the Astros, the Dodgers should win
   2. Jeff Francoeur's OPS Posted: October 19, 2020 at 01:01 PM (#5983923)
Braves-Rays would have been a better match-up, but when the Braves fail, they fail big.
   3. Howie Menckel Posted: October 19, 2020 at 01:52 PM (#5983930)
It will be nice for the long-suffering sports fans in Tampa or Los Angeles - whose teams have not won a major pro sports championship in 21 days and 8 days, respectively - to finally see their drought end.

There are (a few) infants in each city that weren't even alive the last time those cities tasted victory.
   4. Rally Posted: October 19, 2020 at 01:57 PM (#5983931)
A lot more common last century. Up to 1972 every #1 seed made it to the world series.
   5. The Duke Posted: October 19, 2020 at 02:02 PM (#5983933)
Kike Hernandez hurts at least two people with his HR elbow bumps. Look at replay of him in dodger dugout after his home run and then he dislocated Bellinger’s shoulder after bellingers HR. I think the first guy is not a player though
   6. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: October 19, 2020 at 02:04 PM (#5983934)

A lot more common last century. Up to 1972 every #1 seed made it to the world series.


What are the odds of that happening??????
   7. SoSH U at work Posted: October 19, 2020 at 02:05 PM (#5983935)

Kike Hernandez hurts at least two people with his HR elbow bumps. Look at replay of him in dodger dugout after his home run and then he dislocated Bellinger’s shoulder after bellingers HR. I think the first guy is not a player though


I'm with Smoltz here. I've long looked at those damn things as an injury waiting to happen. Frankly, it pains me to watch them.
   8. BDC Posted: October 19, 2020 at 02:20 PM (#5983938)
Up to 1972 every #1 seed made it to the world series

What are the odds of that happening??????


:-D But I do remember thinking at the time that the first three pairs of "LCS" were superfluous. The Orioles were unstoppable and the three NL favorites won 9 of the first 10 games there. It was like lambs to the slaughter.

And then randomness took over in a hurry.
   9. Rally Posted: October 19, 2020 at 03:08 PM (#5983948)
In 72 it was the 95 win Reds over the 96 win Pirates. Best record didn’t win but if they are that close maybe the Reds were the better team. Then in 1973 the Mets introduced us to the random nature of playoffs.
   10. The Yankee Clapper Posted: October 19, 2020 at 03:18 PM (#5983952)
In some years, it can be a bit difficult to find a World Series rooting interest, but I’ve been around long enough to remember when the Leagues meant something. So, lets win it for clean baseball, Ban Johnson & the American League! Go Rays!
   11. DFA Posted: October 19, 2020 at 04:05 PM (#5983958)
I'm thrilled that it is the two top seeds in this truncated season. One of the many reasons that I hate the watered down playoffs is the desire to have the best teams win, which I think is better for the game in the long run.
   12. phredbird Posted: October 19, 2020 at 04:34 PM (#5983962)

wtf ---

no game today?
   13. VCar Posted: October 19, 2020 at 06:58 PM (#5983973)
I'm thrilled that it is the two top seeds


They rode home-field advantage all the way.
   14. John DiFool2 Posted: October 19, 2020 at 07:14 PM (#5983976)
A lot more common last century. Up to 1972 every #1 seed made it to the world series.


Does that include teams who played in those 1-3 game tiebreaker series?
   15. Perry Posted: October 20, 2020 at 12:56 PM (#5984049)
Does that include teams who played in those 1-3 game tiebreaker series?


I'm gonna go out on a limb and say yes.

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