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Thursday, May 14, 2009

The real reason Pirates are losers

Below is, to the best of my research capabilities, the best team of position players the Pirates could put on the field today from players signed and developed by them since 1996.

C: Ryan Doumit

1B: Chris Shelton

2B: Jose Castillo

SS: Jeff Keppinger

3B: Jose Bautista

OF: Nate McLouth

OF: Nyjer Morgan

OF: Rob Mackowiak

Bench: Ronny Paulino, Tike Redman, Steve Pearce, Chris Duffy, Humberto Cota.

That team would not win 50 games.

Ed Creech: The gift that keeps on giving.

Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: May 14, 2009 at 09:17 PM | 78 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: pirates, scouting

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   1. Tripon Posted: May 15, 2009 at 03:58 AM (#3179903)
I believe Ed Creech is now the Giants Scouting director.
   2. Cooperstown Schtick Posted: May 15, 2009 at 04:43 AM (#3179963)
1. If you put Kendall at catcher and bump Doumit out to the outfield, removing Mackowiak, it looks better.

2. Womack is certainly no great shakes, but he's almost certainly better, and definitely more exciting, than Jose Castillo.

3. The list looks worse without pitchers. There are some young and promising guys on that list, on the front side of their prime, some of whom are still on the club and producing (Maholm, Duke, Snell, Capps).

4. This looks far more damning of the club's developmental ability than their drafting. If I recall correctly, Brad Eldred was a sure fire stud. An awful lot of these drafts were highly touted at the time.
   3. Honkie Kong Posted: May 15, 2009 at 04:46 AM (#3179966)
Well, they did trade away Aramis Ramirez. And Bronson Arroyo. Might make the list look a bit better.
   4. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: May 15, 2009 at 05:00 AM (#3179987)
2. Womack is certainly no great shakes, but he's almost certainly better, and definitely more exciting, than Jose Castillo.

The list is for players drafted/signed after 1996. Womack was drafted in 1991.


Well, they did trade away Aramis Ramirez.

Ramirez was signed as an amateur free agent in 1994.


And Bronson Arroyo.

Drafted in 1995.


EDIT: Forgot about Kendall

1. If you put Kendall at catcher and bump Doumit out to the outfield, removing Mackowiak, it looks better.

Drafted in 1992.
   5. Justin T's pasta pass was not revoked Posted: May 15, 2009 at 05:26 AM (#3180046)
Stargell and Bonds too.
   6. Hurdle's Heroes (SuperBaes) Posted: May 15, 2009 at 05:34 AM (#3180053)
From a comment on this article:
Bob - Very valid assessment - but you also must remember that it is ownership who makes the critical hire(s). So let's give Coonelly (and Huntington) a little more time and see what transpires

The ownership groups in professional sports are like any executive head: they get too much praise with success (Robert Kraft) and not enough blame for horrific failure (the Ford family). Bob Nutting didn't conduct those awful drafts, but he hired the guys who did, and didn't axe that front office for their failures. It's easier to direct vitriol at the ownership group and the GM/coaching staff than it is to hate the ENTIRE oranization.

Plus (I didn't read all the comments on the blog, so maybe there is one there): why has no one mentioned the ineptitude of the training/medical staff? All organizations have pitchers who have had/are recovering from major surgeries, but if the Pirates take Aaron Crow (as projected at http://www.mymlbdraft.com/MLB-Mock-Draft-2009), will anyone be surprised to see him having Tommy John's in 12 weeks?

NOTE: I was wrong. It's easy to hate Dan Moskos. A lot.
   7. aberg Posted: May 15, 2009 at 06:37 AM (#3180070)
Are there teams who have bad draft records but survive based on strong international scouting and development? I'm sure there are some. Still, a bad list.
   8. Jeff K. Posted: May 15, 2009 at 06:46 AM (#3180072)
The Rangers of the mid-80s come to mind. Consistently bad, so consistently drafting highly. Drafts were pretty epically terrible. However, Sierra/Sosa/Gonzalez/Pudge were all amateur free agent signings.
   9. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: May 15, 2009 at 08:48 AM (#3180091)
"I recall correctly, Brad Eldred was a sure fire stud."

Brad Eldred was a sure-fire stud as long as you assumed that baseball would, at some point in the future, ban all breaking balls and go back to allowing hitters to call for high or low pitches. And that the NL would adopt the DH, insofar as he's totally unable to run, field, or throw.

The player development staff under Bonifay and Littlefield sucked, but Eldred was never going to be anything but a AAAA legend. His skill set is too limited.
   10. Gambling Rent Czar Posted: May 15, 2009 at 11:56 AM (#3180111)
the padres couldn't even fill a roster. I don't have enough bench players.

C: Nick Hundley
1B: Kyle Blanks
2B: Josh Barfield
SS: Kahlil Greene
3B: Chase Headley
OF: Xavier Nady
OF: Paul McAnalty
OF: Drew Macias
Bench: Jason Bartlett, Colt Morton


and the pitching side is no better.

Jake Peavy
Shawn Hill

And what ever that kids name is, closing games in KC
   11. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: May 15, 2009 at 12:08 PM (#3180114)
Jason Bay isn't a better OF option?
   12. Gambling Rent Czar Posted: May 15, 2009 at 12:10 PM (#3180116)
Jason Bay isn't a better OF option?
they didn't draft him, Montreal did. Bay was only in San Diego for a short time.
   13. Mr Dashwood Posted: May 15, 2009 at 12:46 PM (#3180128)
The Expo team that was looking so promising in November 2001 when contraction was announced was predominantly a product of international signings, not the draft.

Five years ago I looked at drafts by two franchises during the 1990s, the Marlins and the Expos, for the purpose of drafting a Diamond Mind team. I was astonished at how poorly these two drafted. You couldn't fill a decent starting nine in either case. Most of their good players came from trades (Marlins) or international signings (Expos). Yet they were supposed to have outstanding GMs or scouting directors during that time. Of course, as I studied the issue I found that some of my witnesses for scouting directors being outstanding were not unbiased, so maybe that was a factor. But, really, I came away thinking most of these organizational prospect lists published at the beginning of each season are a bit like sales brochures.

My 2002 Baseball America Prospect Handbook is instructive. Among the top organizational prospects we find Nate Conejo (Detroit), Richard Stahl (Baltimore), and Seung Song (Boston). It makes you glad to find Wilson Betemit (Atlanta) and Austin Kearns (Cincinnati).

But, what this actually reflects is how very few baseball players are consistently good for an extended period of time. That Pirate Nine that wouldn't win fifty games includes no stars. But you can imagine several of them as the sort of players who, having one or two above-average seasons at the right time, feature at least as part-timers or better in the lineup of a pennant contender. Or even a 90-game winner, like Mr Mackowiak.
   14. Keith Law Posted: May 15, 2009 at 12:48 PM (#3180131)
I believe Ed Creech is now the Giants Scouting director.


No, but he does work for them in a sort of roving scouting role. John Barr oversees all scouting, and Doug Mapson is the coordinator of amateur scouting under John.
   15. villageidiom Posted: May 15, 2009 at 12:56 PM (#3180140)
For comparison, here's the same for Boston (who drafted ahead of the Pirates only in 1998):

C: Kelly Shoppach
1B: Kevin Youkilis
2B: Dustin Pedroia
SS: Hanley Ramirez
3B: Shea Hillenbrand
OF: Brandon Moss
OF: Jacoby Ellsbury
OF: David Murphy

Bench: Jed Lowrie, David Eckstein, Adam Everett, Freddy Sanchez, Matt Murton, Lew Ford

Pitching: Jon Lester, Jonathan Papelbon, Manny Delcarmen, Justin Masterson, Clay Buchholz, Michael Bowden, Daniel Bard, Justin Duchsherer, Frank Francisco, Rich Rundles, Cla Meredith, Chris Reitsma, Aaron Harang, Mike Maroth, Casey Fossum, Anibal Sanchez, Craig Hansen

(Also FWIW, Brian Bannister was drafted, but did not sign, in 2002.)

I suppose the argument could be made that Lars Anderson at 1B and Youkilis at 3B is better than Youkilis at 1B and Hillenbrand at 3B. But I tried sticking with players who have actually made it to a MLB roster at some point.
   16. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: May 15, 2009 at 01:02 PM (#3180149)
Using such strict parameters as "originally drafted and developed, since 1996", creates a false impression of how bad they are. Other teams wouldn't look so great, other than outliers like Boston. Many teams "wouldn't win 50 games" with such a lineup limitation.
   17. The Most Interesting Man In The World Posted: May 15, 2009 at 01:03 PM (#3180150)
From the top of my head, the Giants:

SP: Matt Cain
SP: Jonathan Sanchez
SP: Noah Lowry
SP: Tim Lincecum
Closer: Brian Wilson
Swing: Kurt Ainsworth
Swing: Jerome Williams
Swing: Jesse Foppert
LRP: Jack Taschner
RRP: Jeremy Accardo
RRP: Sergio Romo
RRP: Scott Munter

I'm thinking Joe Nathan was pre-1996

LF: Fred Lewis
CF: Jason Ellison
RF: Nate Schierholtz
3B: Conor Gillaspie (I'm thinking Feliz was drafted before 1996, I may be wrong)
SS: Brian Bocock
2B: Emmanuel Burriss
1B: Lance Niekro
C: Yorvit Torrealba (although he might be pre-96 too), otherwise Buster Posey

Bench: Travis Ishikawa, Carlos Valderama, Adam Shabala, Kevin Frandsen

I would agree that the 1996 criteria makes these lists look worse than they might otherwise appear. As long as the Giants didn't actually have to bat, they wouldn't be so bad.
   18. RJ in TO Posted: May 15, 2009 at 01:17 PM (#3180170)
Using such strict parameters as "originally drafted and developed, since 1996", creates a false impression of how bad they are. Other teams wouldn't look so great, other than outliers like Boston. Many teams "wouldn't win 50 games" with such a lineup limitation.


I thought the point was also to restrict it to players who actually played for the team which drafted and developed them, which would make the Boston list suddenly look a lot worse - Maroth, Harang, Eckstein, Everett, Murton, Ford, Francisco, Duchscherer, and probably a couple others never actually played a game in uniform for Boston. Hanley was also never drafted.

It's still a good list for Boston, but not quite as good as portrayed.
   19. DKDC Posted: May 15, 2009 at 01:22 PM (#3180174)
It's still a good list for Boston, but not quite as good as portrayed.


It's a very good list given the silly parameters, but that would still be a terrible MLB team.
   20. phatj Posted: May 15, 2009 at 01:44 PM (#3180210)
Phillies:

C: Carlos Ruiz (backup: Johnny Estrada)
1B: Ryan Howard
2B: Chase Utley
3B: Nick Punto is the closest thing to a major leaguer who can play 3B the Phillies have produced since Rolen
SS: Jimmy Rollins
Utility:
LF: Pat Burrell
CF: Marlon Byrd
RF: Jason Michaels
4th OF: Greg Golson

LSP: Cole Hamels
RSP: Brett Myers
LSP: Randy Wolf
RSP: Gavin Floyd
RSP: Carlos Silva
RRP: Geoff Geary
LRP: ???
Closer: Ryan Madson

That team looks decent, though the bullpen is pretty suspect.
   21. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: May 15, 2009 at 01:52 PM (#3180213)
As long as the Giants didn't actually have to bat, they wouldn't be so bad.

Um, couldn't the same be true of the real current team?

Also, I'd stick Pablo Sandoval behind the plate rather than Torrealba, while fully expecting Posey to displace him in a year or two.
   22. Honkie Kong Posted: May 15, 2009 at 01:53 PM (#3180218)
I will take a shot at the Braves list

C : McCann
1b : Adam LaRoche
2b : Marcus Giles
3b : Mark DeRosa
ss : Yunel Escobar
LF : Kelly Johnson
RF : Francoeur
CF : Schafer
bench : Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Max Ramirez, Langerhans, Scott Thorman, Brandon Jones, TP Jr (??)

Pitching :
Wainwright, Millwood, Davies, James, HoRam

Bullpen :
Boyer, McBride, Meyer, Devine

Probably missing some names but decent team. No great shakes though.

EDIT : The starting lineup will score more runs than the current braves one, if we take into account Chipper's injuries! And the Braves suck at developing outfielders. After KJ converted, last decent hitter in the OF through the Braves system has to be Klesko
   23. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: May 15, 2009 at 02:01 PM (#3180224)
Many teams "wouldn't win 50 games" with such a lineup limitation.
Although for someone like the Pirates, who draft in the top half every year, often in the top ten, really ought to be one of the outliers.

The Yankees, incidentally, are predicably dreadful:

C: Omir Santos
1B: Nick Johnson
2B: [No one, best as I can tell]
3B: Andy Philips
SS: Andy Cannizaro
LF: Marcus Thames
CF: Brett Gardner
RF: Shelly Duncan

SP: Eric Milton
RP: Joba Chamberlain
   24. wjones Posted: May 15, 2009 at 02:02 PM (#3180226)
Braves, off the top of my head:

C: Brian McCann
1B: Adam LaRoche
2B: Kelly Johnson
SS: Yunel Escobar
3B: Kinda stuck here--Was Furcal before 1996? We could stick Marcus Giles here? Martin Prado?
LF: I'll take nominations from the floor.
CF: Jordan Schafer
RF: Jeff Francoeur
RSP: Adam Wainwright
RSP: Kyle Davies
RSP: Jason Marquis
LSP: Jo Jo Reyes (surely I'm forgetting someone?)
LSP: Was Bruce Chen prior to 1996?
Closer: Again, nominations from the floor.

Unless I'm totally forgetting folks, a spotty team indeed.
   25. villageidiom Posted: May 15, 2009 at 02:04 PM (#3180229)
Using such strict parameters as "originally drafted and developed, since 1996", creates a false impression of how bad they are. Other teams wouldn't look so great, other than outliers like Boston.
True, but the Pirates were in position to draft all of the Boston players listed, except Adam Everett. Whether they didn't due to bad talent identification, or financial constraints, or both, or something else, I don't know.
I thought the point was also to restrict it to players who actually played for the team which drafted and developed them, which would make the Boston list suddenly look a lot worse - Maroth, Harang, Eckstein, Everett, Murton, Ford, Francisco, Duchscherer, and probably a couple others never actually played a game in uniform for Boston. Hanley was also never drafted.
Chris Shelton and Jeff Keppinger never actually played a game in uniform for the Pirates. Jose Bautista played for three MLB teams before his first with the Pirates. Jose Castillo was also never drafted. I think it's a pretty fair comparison.
   26. Honkie Kong Posted: May 15, 2009 at 02:04 PM (#3180230)
Ahh, I forgot Marquis. My brain blocks that #### out thankfully.

Prado/Chen/Furcal et al were International signings. Not valid here.
   27. wjones Posted: May 15, 2009 at 02:06 PM (#3180231)
Doh! Forgot about Chuck James and HoRam (can you blame me)? But were Millwood and DeRosa drafted after 1996? I was thinking they were before, but again, I was going off the top of my head. Super duper bullpen, eh?
   28. RJ in TO Posted: May 15, 2009 at 02:07 PM (#3180234)
Chris Shelton and Jeff Keppinger never actually played a game in uniform for the Pirates. Jose Bautista played for three MLB teams before his first with the Pirates. Jose Castillo was also never drafted. I think it's a pretty fair comparison.


I stand corrected.

Holy crap! That was the best team that Pittsburgh could put together, even including guys who never actually played for them? That's just absolutely horrific.
   29. Honkie Kong Posted: May 15, 2009 at 02:11 PM (#3180239)
Doh! Forgot about Chuck James and HoRam (can you blame me)? But were Millwood and DeRosa drafted after 1996? I was thinking they were before, but again, I was going off the top of my head. Super duper bullpen, eh

You are right, Millwood was '93. DeRosa though was '96

Any other candidates for the pen? We really have drafted only 4 pen arms in 10 years?? McBride and Boyer looked lights out in 2005. Poor McBride, I had high hopes of him.
   30. Kiko Sakata Posted: May 15, 2009 at 02:15 PM (#3180244)
Unless I'm totally forgetting folks, a spotty team indeed.


Actually, those Braves and Phillies teams are probably as good as you can find under these parameters. Remember, something like one-third of major-leaguers are foreign-born and hence were never drafted. Only going back to 1996 means that you're excluding anybody drafted out of high school over the age of about 31. You're probably easily excluding half of all major-leaguers and the excluded half are probably better, on average, than the included half.

That said, for as high as the Pirates tend to draft, the fact that they really haven't drafted or developed anybody better than, say, Ryan Doumit or Nate McLouth in 15 years is pretty damning.
   31. The Most Interesting Man In The World Posted: May 15, 2009 at 02:19 PM (#3180249)
Also, I'd stick Pablo Sandoval behind the plate rather than Torrealba, while fully expecting Posey to displace him in a year or two.

D'oh! I knew that typing this list at 6AM, I would forget somebody obvious. When Posey becomes C, Pablo can go to 3B.
   32. phatj Posted: May 15, 2009 at 02:23 PM (#3180253)
Actually, those Braves and Phillies teams are probably as good as you can find under these parameters. Remember, something like one-third of major-leaguers are foreign-born and hence were never drafted.


I don't think we need to exclude foreign-born players that weren't drafted. The quoted part of TFA says "signed and developed" not "drafted and developed."
   33. Dylan B Posted: May 15, 2009 at 02:25 PM (#3180256)
Toronto

Ca Josh Phelps
1b Adam Lind
2b Orlando Hudson
3b Aaron Hill
ss Michael Young
lf Travis Snider
cf Vernon Wells
rf Alex Rios
dh Casey Blake
Utl Brad Hawpe Felipe Lopez Jay Gibbons Reed Johnson Curtis Thigpen

sp Dustin MCGowan
sp Shaun Marcum
sp Jesse Litch
sp David Bush
sp Ricky Romero
rp Brandon Lyon
rp Casey Jensen
rp Chad Qualls
cl Brandon League

And with '96 as the cut off, just miss adding Halladay and Lilly to the list.
   34. Rants Mulliniks Posted: May 15, 2009 at 02:30 PM (#3180263)
Beat me to it. That's not a bad team.
   35. DL from MN Posted: May 15, 2009 at 02:34 PM (#3180270)
MN Twins

C) Joe Mauer
1B) Justin Morneau
2B) Matt Tolbert
SS) Trevor Plouffe (not far off, but not certain)
3B) nobody yet
LF) Jacque Jones
CF) Denard Span
RF) Michael Cuddyer
DH) Jason Kubel
Bench - Matt LeCroy, Chad Moeller, Rob Bowen, Jose Morales (notice a pattern?)

P) Glen Perkins
P) Matt Garza
P) Nick Blackburn
P) Scott Baker
P) Kevin Slowey

RP) JC Romero
RP) Jesse Crain
RP) Pat Neshek
RP) Willie Eyre
RP) Kevin Cameron
RP) Juan Rincon (international signing 1996)

That's despite a big nothing out of 1998, failure to sign Aaron Heilman, Jeff Clement and Travis Lee, high 1st round picks on Ryan Mills, Adam Johnson and BJ Garbe, etc, etc, etc.
   36. Randy Jones Posted: May 15, 2009 at 02:36 PM (#3180272)
The Yankees, incidentally, are predicably dreadful:

C: Omir Santos
1B: Nick Johnson
2B: [No one, best as I can tell]
3B: Andy Philips
SS: Andy Cannizaro
LF: Marcus Thames
CF: Brett Gardner
RF: Shelly Duncan

SP: Eric Milton
RP: Joba Chamberlain


You ignored international FA signings. Would still be a bad team, but much better than the one you listed.
   37. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: May 15, 2009 at 02:39 PM (#3180276)
You ignored international FA signings. Would still be a bad team, but much better than the one you listed.
Ah, somehow I thought that's what we were doing. Yes, adding international signings improves it quite a bit. You can add Cano at 2B, put Melky in for one of the Thames/Duncan pair, etc.
   38. JPWF13 Posted: May 15, 2009 at 02:48 PM (#3180291)
I don't think we need to exclude foreign-born players that weren't drafted.


Ditto, that's just silly excluding 1/3 the talent base- besides it makes the Pirates look even worse relative to other teams.

Didn't both DL and Bonifay have scouting/player development backgrounds? so much for "paper" credentials.
   39. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: May 15, 2009 at 02:50 PM (#3180292)
C: Kelly Shoppach
1B: Kevin Youkilis
2B: Dustin Pedroia
SS: Hanley Ramirez
3B: Shea Hillenbrand
OF: Brandon Moss
OF: Jacoby Ellsbury
OF: David Murphy


Too many white players.
   40. Randy Jones Posted: May 15, 2009 at 02:54 PM (#3180296)
Ah, somehow I thought that's what we were doing. Yes, adding international signings improves it quite a bit. You can add Cano at 2B, put Melky in for one of the Thames/Duncan pair, etc.


Melky in center with Soriano and Juan Rivera at the corners and Navarro at catcher. SS and 3B are still vortexes of suck as far as I can tell though.
   41. Weekly Journalist_ Posted: May 15, 2009 at 03:02 PM (#3180300)
C-Dioner Navarro
1b-Nick Johnson
SS-Alfonso Soriano
2B-Robinson Cano
3B-D'Angelo Jimenez
LF-Juan Rivera
CF-Melky Cabrera
RF-Marcus Thames

PH-Shelly Duncan, PR-Brett Gardner

P-Chien Ming Wang
P-Phil Hughes
P-Joba Chamberlain
P-Jeff Karstens


RP-

RP-
   42. Weekly Journalist_ Posted: May 15, 2009 at 03:04 PM (#3180304)
In our fantasy world, can't we play Soriano at SS? he played 10 games there his fist couple of years and the bulk of his minor league time.
   43. JPWF13 Posted: May 15, 2009 at 03:05 PM (#3180306)
Mets guesstimate:

C; Jason Phillips
1b: Mike Jacobs/Nick Evans
2b: Ty Wiggington/Danny Garcia
3b: David Wright
SS: Jose Reyes
LF: Daniel Murphy
CF: Carlos Gomez/Endy Chavez/JAson Tyner
RF: Lastings Milledge/Alex Escobar

SP: Kazmir
SP: Pelfrey
SP: Brian Bannister
closer: Heath Bell
Bobby Parnell
Aaron Heilman
Joe Smith
Phil Humber
JAe Seo
   44. Chokeland Bill Posted: May 15, 2009 at 03:06 PM (#3180308)
Oakland

SP Tim Hudson
SP Rich Harden
SP Barry Zito
SP Mark Mulder
SP Jeremy Bonderman/Joe Blanton/Dallas Braden
RP Huston Street
RP Andrew Bailey
RP Santiago Casilla

C John Baker / Kurt Suzuki
1B Nick Swisher
2B Esteban German
3B Eric Chavez
SS Bobby Crosby

RF Andre Ethier
CF Eric Byrnes
LF Mark Teahen

The best years for most of those guys are pretty good-to-great, though currently most of them are hurt/ineffective. The pitching is obviously pretty great at its peak.
   45. oscar madisox Posted: May 15, 2009 at 03:10 PM (#3180312)
Here's the Astros. Signed draft choices only since 1996. It's interesting to see how many of these guys actually contributed to their playoff years. And makes it a shame to see what has happened with the organization since.

1b - Lance Berkman
2b - Chris Burke
ss - Eric Bruntlett
3b - Morgan Ensberg
c - John Buck
cf - Josh Anderson
lf - Jason Lane
rf - Hunter Pence

Bench - Todd Self, Charlton Jimerson, Colin Porter, J.R. Towles, Ben Zobrist, Keith Ginter

SP - Roy Oswalt, Wade Miller, Tim Redding, Jason Hirsh, Kirk Saarloos,
RP _ Brad Lidge, Chad Qualls, Troy Patton, Matt Albers, Mike Gallo, Chris Sampson

Adding International FA's adds Wandy to the pitching staff. They originally drafted Bourn, too, but didn't sign him so he doesn't count.
   46. DJ Endless Grudge Is Nobody's Disciple Posted: May 15, 2009 at 03:13 PM (#3180317)
The Cubs:

C: Geovany Soto
1B: Eric Hinske
2B: Eric Patterson
3B: Brendan Harris
SS: Ryan Theriot
OF: Corey Paterson
OF: Sam Fuld
OF: Buck Coats

Bench: Ryan Jorgensen, Jason Smith, Sam Fuld

P: Kyle Lohse, Jon Garland, Todd Wellemeyer, Sean Marshall, Sean Gallagher
Bullpen: Micheal Wuertz, Ricky Nolasco, Rocky Cherry, Carmen Pignatiello, Jerry Blevins

NOTE: That's draft only. I don't have a good list in front of me of international signings. I think the pen would look a lot better with Carlos Marmol in it, if nothing else. Oh, and Zambrano in the rotation.
   47. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: May 15, 2009 at 03:21 PM (#3180324)
Bullpen: Micheal Wuertz, Ricky Nolasco, Rocky Cherry, Carmen Pignatiello, Jerry Blevins

Kerry Wood?

Edit: Drafted in '95. I'm an idiot.
   48. Santanaland Diaries Posted: May 15, 2009 at 03:27 PM (#3180336)
Just to emphasize how tough it would be to have a team that be above average games with these conditions, here are the players from last year's All-Star game who wouldn't be on any team's list, based on eliminating any player who was signed before 1996 or made his debut with a team other than the one that signed him:

Derek Jeter
Alex Rodriguez
Manny Ramirez
David Ortiz
Carlos Guillen
Jason Varitek
Michael Young
Chipper Jones
Hanley Ramirez
Adrian Gonzalez
Cristian Guzman
Ryan Ludwick
Aramis Ramirez
Miguel Tejada
Dan Uggla
Justin Duchscherer
Roy Halladay
Scott Kazmir
Joe Nathan
Mariano Rivera
Joakim Soria
Ryan Dempster
Billy Wagner
Kerry Wood

That's about 3/8 of the All-Star rosters.
   49. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: May 15, 2009 at 03:27 PM (#3180337)
SS and 3B are still vortexes of suck as far as I can tell though.
Some of these--Yankee SS is the most notable example--are cases where a team has a long-term solution so probably isn't drafting for it, and someone isn't going to move into the spot. The Mets will at some point have a similar "problem" with Reyes, and I imagine the Twins will have one with Mauer if he signs a long-term deal.
   50. hokieneer Posted: May 15, 2009 at 03:28 PM (#3180338)
I'll try and do the reds, but I'm not sure that's possible:

c: Jason LaRue (drafted in 1995)
1b: Joey Votto
2b:
3b: Aaron Boone
SS: Paul Janish
LF: Dunn
CF: Bruce
RF: Kearns
Bench: Chris Denorfia, Brandon Larson (1st round pick in 1997, nice one), Dwayne Wise.

SP:
SP: Rich Hill
SP: Cueto
SP: Bailey
SP: J Sowers (did not sign, I'm reaching)
RP: Ryan Wagner
RP: Scott Williamson
RP:
RP:
CL: B.J. Ryan

Either I dont' know enough about my team's player development history, or they have been terrible. This took way too much time and it was way too depressing.
   51. DJ Endless Grudge Is Nobody's Disciple Posted: May 15, 2009 at 03:30 PM (#3180341)
hokieneer, go to the Drafts section of Baseball Reference; you can look up a list of everyone that's active that's been drafted by an organization.
   52. hokieneer Posted: May 15, 2009 at 03:34 PM (#3180348)
hokieneer, go to the Drafts section of Baseball Reference; you can look up a list of everyone that's active that's been drafted by an organization.


After I compiled my list, I went to baseballCube. The only names I missed was rich Hill and Dwayne Wise. There was a few years from 1996-2006 where the Reds had 1 or none of their entire draft make the majors.
   53. Evil Twin Posted: May 15, 2009 at 03:38 PM (#3180355)
For direct comparison sake, The Milwaukee Brewers

1B Prince Fielder
2B Rickie Weeks
SS J.J. Hardy
3B Bill Hall
RF Corey Hart (CF in a pinch)
LF Ryan Braun

SP Ben Sheets
SP Yovanni Gallardo
SP Manny Parra
SP Dana Eveland

Bench: Matt Laporta, Ronnie Belliard

Obviously not a complete team, but certainly a strong base.
   54. Randy Jones Posted: May 15, 2009 at 03:39 PM (#3180356)
Some of these--Yankee SS is the most notable example--are cases where a team has a long-term solution so probably isn't drafting for it, and someone isn't going to move into the spot. The Mets will at some point have a similar "problem" with Reyes, and I imagine the Twins will have one with Mauer if he signs a long-term deal.


You don't draft for "need" in baseball, you take the best available talent, every time. Too much time generally between draft and when a draftee becomes a MLB quality player to worry about need. i.e. there are worse problems to have than having 2 starting quality SS's.
   55. DKDC Posted: May 15, 2009 at 03:40 PM (#3180359)
The Orioles a few top-end talents, but it's really tough to fill out a roster. I had to cheat and use Wieters.

c: Matt Wieters
1b: Jason Werth
2b: Brian Roberts
3b: Willie Harris
SS: Mike Fontenot
LF: Nolan Reimold
CF: Jerry Hairston
RF: Nick Markakis

SP: Erik Bedard
SP: John Maine
SP: Garrett Olson
SP: Josh Towers
SP: Brad Bergesen
RP: Radhames Liz
RP: Jim Johnson
RP: John Parrish
RP: Chris Britton
CL: Chris Ray
   56. Every Inge Counts Posted: May 15, 2009 at 03:53 PM (#3180378)
Tigers:

C: Mike Rabelo
1B: Robert Fick
2B: Ryan Raburn (he played like 27 games there)…
SS: Scott Moore
3B: Brandon Inge
OF: Cody Ross
OF: Curtis Granderson
OF: Cameron Maybin
DH: Jeffrey Larish
Bench: Matt Joyce, Brent Clevlen

SP: Justin Verlander
SP: Jeff Weaver
SP: Andrew Miller
SP: Rick Porcello
SP: Seth Greisinger

RP: Ryan Perry
RP: Matt Anderson
RP: Jason Frasor
RP: Joel Zumaya

Inge and Fick were catchers when they were drafted.
   57. kthejoker Posted: May 15, 2009 at 04:18 PM (#3180403)
Apropos of nothing, the Astros certainly draft white.
   58. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: May 15, 2009 at 04:23 PM (#3180408)
"...or made his debut with a team other than the one that signed him:"

Why are you eliminating those? The Pirates' list doesn't.
   59. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: May 15, 2009 at 04:26 PM (#3180411)
Reds:

C - no one
1 - Joey Votto
2 - Gookie Dawkins
S - Paul Janish
3 - no one... edit... The Legendary Brandon Larson
RF - Austin Kearns
CF - Jay Bruce
LF - Adam Dunn
Bench - Chris Dickerson, Chris Denorfia, a couple of players much worse than the two Chris'
SP - Brett Tomko maybe
SP - Homer Bailey
SP - Jeremy Sowers (drafted by the Reds because they knew he wouldn't sign). Only player from the Reds 2001 draft to even sniff the major leagues.
SP - no one
SP - no one
RP - Scott Williamson
RP - Todd Coffey
RP - Josh Roenicke
a few other guys not as good as Josh Roenicke....
   60. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: May 15, 2009 at 04:26 PM (#3180412)
Apropos of nothing, the Astros certainly draft white.
Doesn't everyone probably draft white? Given the articles that cite how African-American players are down, and that a good percentage (although obviously not all) Hispanics/Asians are foreign signings, it seems to be the MLB Draft would be a hugely white affair.
   61. Mike Emeigh Posted: May 15, 2009 at 04:29 PM (#3180416)
Are there teams who have bad draft records but survive based on strong international scouting and development?


Arguably, the Mets.

-- MWE
   62. Cowboy Popup Posted: May 15, 2009 at 04:35 PM (#3180423)
Some of these--Yankee SS is the most notable example--are cases where a team has a long-term solution so probably isn't drafting for it, and someone isn't going to move into the spot.

The Yanks drafted CJ Henry to be the SS of the future. That, uh, didn't go as planned.
   63. hokieneer Posted: May 15, 2009 at 04:36 PM (#3180424)
RP - Todd Coffey


As A Reds fan I have blocked out the Todd Coffey years. Thank you for forcing me to remember them.
   64. hokieneer Posted: May 15, 2009 at 04:40 PM (#3180434)
The Yanks drafted CJ Henry to be the SS of the future. That, uh, didn't go as planned.


Did help the yanks get Abreau. Speaking of that, has any of those 4 players traded for Abreau turned out to be worth a damn.
   65. Santanaland Diaries Posted: May 15, 2009 at 04:41 PM (#3180437)
Why are you eliminating those? The Pirates' list doesn't.


Ah, thought that that was the developing part, and was doing that just because I didn't want to take time to see when a player was traded and who thus should get credit for developing them. Shows you how nondescript the Pirates list is that none of the players stuck out as non-original Pirates. I do think it would make sense to eliminate players who never played above, say, A-ball with their original team, unless they were already seen as top prospects when they were traded, because there's a real question of who should get credit for that player's development.

In that light the Pirates lists is even sadder. It's one thing to trade away talent that blossoms elsewhere; then maybe you can figure out why they succeed when they leave. But the Pirates seem to either have no eye for talent, or do such a bad developing them that it screws them up so much that no one else can get anything out of them either.
   66. JoeHova Posted: May 15, 2009 at 04:51 PM (#3180452)
You don't draft for "need" in baseball, you take the best available talent, every time.


Perhaps. However, if you have a good player in a certain spot, you may move the guys who you draft who play that position to other positions. This is well illustrated by what Milwaukee has done since drafting Prince Fielder. They moved Corey Hart and Brad Nelson, two of their top prospects at the time, to other positions. They drafted Matt LaPorta and immediately moved him to the outfield. They didn't move Ryan Braun or Mat Gamel to first when they couldn't handle third (I still have some hopes for Gamel at 3rd, but another org. would have moved him to 1st by now). Prince Fielder has been a major factor in the development of the Brewers minor league system.
   67. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: May 15, 2009 at 04:52 PM (#3180453)
"Shows you how nondescript the Pirates list is that none of the players stuck out as non-original Pirates."

If you were going to eliminate those, you'd need to axe Shelton, Keppinger, and Bautista.

1B would then go to Brad Eldred, pretty much by default. SS would be Bixler for the same reason. For 3B, you'd pretty much have no choice but to take Mackowiak out of the OF and put him there, which leaves you with Pearce (or Redman, if you trade O for D). Or I guess you could use Pearce at 1B instead of Eldred, and Redman as the third OF.

All the options kind of suck.
   68. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: May 15, 2009 at 05:18 PM (#3180494)
As A Reds fan I have blocked out the Todd Coffey years. Thank you for forcing me to remember them.

Also a Reds fan. Would you rather remember the Ryan Wagner years? :-) I went through the Reds '96-'08 drafts after I posted and they are a horror show. Other than the 1998 draft (Kearns-Dunn), the best player to make the majors prior to the 2004 draft (Homer Bailey) and the emergence of Joey Votto last year (2002 draft) was Scott Williamson.
   69. hokieneer Posted: May 15, 2009 at 05:24 PM (#3180504)
Also a Reds fan. Would you rather remember the Ryan Wagner years? :-)


Sadly, yes. There has not been a Red's player over the last 4-5 years that I despise more than Todd Coffey. I know he had 1.5 decent years out of 3-4, but I can't stand him. I still remember enjoying watching Wagner pitch in col. at Houston. I have never enjoyed watching Coffey pitch.
   70. hokieneer Posted: May 15, 2009 at 05:27 PM (#3180508)
I went through the Reds '96-'08 drafts after I posted and they are a horror show.


I agree on that. I did the same thing after I made my list from memory. I love how the Reds averaged about 1 ML player per year from the draft, and really no impact guys besides the Kearn/Dunn year. Though the last 2-3 years the drafts have appeared to be better.
   71. Randy Jones Posted: May 15, 2009 at 05:28 PM (#3180513)
Perhaps. However, if you have a good player in a certain spot, you may move the guys who you draft who play that position to other positions. This is well illustrated by what Milwaukee has done since drafting Prince Fielder. They moved Corey Hart and Brad Nelson, two of their top prospects at the time, to other positions. They drafted Matt LaPorta and immediately moved him to the outfield. They didn't move Ryan Braun or Mat Gamel to first when they couldn't handle third (I still have some hopes for Gamel at 3rd, but another org. would have moved him to 1st by now). Prince Fielder has been a major factor in the development of the Brewers minor league system.


Sure, but that is the kind of problem you want to have. You either move the "excess" player to a new position or you trade him. Either way, having an established player, even a star player, at a given position should never stop you from drafting someone who plays that same position.
   72. cardsfanboy Posted: May 15, 2009 at 07:51 PM (#3180738)
I don't know about signings, but this seems to be the list of Cardinals, surprisingly good record with first round picks to be honest.

C Yadier Molina
1b Albert Pujols
2b Adam Kennedy
SS Jack Wilson
3b Brett Wallace
CF Ankiel
lf Chris Duncan
Rf JD Drew

Bench OF Coco Crisp, OF Skip Schumaker, CF Rasmus
1b Daric Barton, OF Joe Mather, 2b Brendan Ryan
Bench Bo Hart

SP Danny Haren
SP Braden Looper
SP Anthony Reyes
SP Mitchell Boggs
SP Bud Smith(?)


RP Brad Thompson
RP Randy Flores
Rp Tyler Johnson
RP Chris Perez
RP jason Motte


And Mike Crudale
   73. DL from MN Posted: May 15, 2009 at 08:07 PM (#3180769)
> the Reds averaged about 1 ML player per year from the draft

What is the average number of people to make the majors per draft year? Divide that by 30 teams and see if the Reds are above or below average. There are only spots for 15 major league regulars per team (9 fielders, 5 starters, 1 closer). That makes 450 major league regulars plus 16 DH so say ~500 slots. In 10 years there are > 30x30x10 = 9000 draftees. Assuming 10 year careers, that's about a 1/20 rate so on average teams will get 1.5 regular players per draft. There's also slots for about 450 bench players (assuming injury) so a team should find 1.5/year of bench/marginal major league players also. That's a total of 3 picks a year per team who are going to see decent MLB time. If you weed out the picks who aren't "developed" by their drafting team, you'll probably get 10 regular and 10 bench players in 10 years on average and maybe 1-2 all-stars per 10 years.
   74. Quinton McCracken's BFF Posted: May 16, 2009 at 09:36 PM (#3181784)
I had to cheat and use Wieters


No, Wieters uses you.
   75. The Keith Law Blog Blah Blah (battlekow) Posted: May 16, 2009 at 10:12 PM (#3181818)
For direct comparison sake, The Milwaukee Brewers

1B Prince Fielder
2B Rickie Weeks
SS J.J. Hardy
3B Bill Hall
RF Corey Hart (CF in a pinch)
LF Ryan Braun

SP Ben Sheets
SP Yovanni Gallardo
SP Manny Parra
SP Dana Eveland

Bench: Matt Laporta, Ronnie Belliard


Belliard was drafted in 1994. Tony Gwynn would be the CF, I guess. If we can count Hunter Pence, maybe he could handle it. Dennis Sarfate, Tim Dillard, Craig Breslow, and Mitch Stetter are the beginnings of a bullpen.
   76. My guest will be Jermaine Allensworth Posted: May 16, 2009 at 10:22 PM (#3181831)
White Sox

C - Josh Paul
1B - Nobody
2B - Chris Getz
SS - Andy Gonzalez
3B - Joe Crede
LF - Ryan Sweeney
CF - Aaron Rowand
RF - Joe Borchard

P - Mark Buehrle
P - Brandon McCarthy
P - Kip Wells
P - Josh Fogg
P - Danny Wright
RP - John Rauch
RP - Chad Bradford
RP - Boone Logan
   77. Jim Wisinski Posted: May 16, 2009 at 10:37 PM (#3181848)
Rays:

C Toby Hall
1B Aubrey Huff
2B .....
SS Ryan Raburn (funny thing, not counting Upton the highest MLB OPS from a player they've drafted as a SS is Brandon Backe)
3B Evan Longoria
LF Carl Crawford
CF BJ Upton
RF Josh Hamilton
DH Elijah Dukes

Bench: Rocco Baldelli, Shawn Riggans, Fernando Cortez, Matt Diaz

SP James Shields
SP Andy Sonnanstine
SP Joe Kennedy
SP Chad Gaudin
SP Doug Waechter

RP Dan Wheeler
RP Seth McClung
RP Jason Hammel
RP Chad Orvella
RP Jason Standridge
RP Jon Switzer
RP Dewon Brazelton

There are probably some inactive guys I don't recall but probably nobody that will make the list much better. Also not any significant amateur international signings that I can think of.

Contrary to the popular refrain, the Rays current success is largely built upon things other than high draft picks. Longoria, Upton, and the return from Delmon Young (Garza and Bartlett) are very important but most of the team has been built through trades, free agents, and players that any team could have drafted.
   78. Nats-Homer-in-DC Posted: May 17, 2009 at 01:23 AM (#3181924)
Florida Marlins (good thing they supplement their roster with trades for prospects)

C Josh Willingham (came up as C, last played in 2006. Otherwise Kyle Skipworth?)
1B Adrian Gonzalez
2B Chris Couglan
3B Miguel Cabrera (Matt Dominguez, Gaby Sanchez and Logan Morrison aren't about to unseat Gonzalez or Cabrera)
SS Robert Andino
LF Jeremy Hermida
CF Mark Kotsay
RF Mike Stanton

SP Josh Beckett
SP Nate Robertson
SP Josh Johnson
SP Scott Olsen
SP Chris Volstad

RP Sean West
RP Taylor Tankersley
RP Jason Vargas

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