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Friday, May 13, 2022

The Reds are on a historically putrid 125-loss pace; here’s why things may not get better anytime soon

Not surprisingly, the Reds are doing nothing particularly well so far in 2022. They rank a middling 15th in MLB in runs scored and 24th in OPS. They’re 29th in Defensive Efficiency, which is the percentage of balls in play that a team converts into outs. Cincy pitching, though, has been on a plane all its own. Right now, Reds moundsmen are lugging around an ERA of 6.61 on the season. That’s the worst in MLB by a cavernous margin—the Pirates and Nationals are tied for 29th with an ERA of 4.81. To pitch to a 6.61 ERA as a collective during a season in which run-scoring has been down markedly is a feat. If that holds up, then it’ll be the second highest team ERA since 1900. Only the 1930 Philadelphia Athletics fared worse with a 6.71 ERA. That said, the Reds are putting up their figure in a league that averages 4.07 team runs per game. In 1930, MLB teams averaged 5.40 runs per game. Put in the proper context, the Reds’ team ERA is far more “impressive.”

They’re on pace to be the worst team in franchise history

Presently, this dishonor belongs to the 1934 Reds, whose .344 win percentage (they were 52-99) is the lowest full-season mark in Reds history. The Reds’ current win percentage of .226 “tops” that figure by a substantial margin. Basically, the 2022 Reds will break that record if they win 56 or fewer games this season. They need to win at a .374 clip or worse the rest of the way in order to make that happen. Can they do it? Of course. What a question.

 

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: May 13, 2022 at 01:20 PM | 13 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: reds

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   1. The Duke Posted: May 13, 2022 at 01:34 PM (#6076561)
Wade Miley's 1 month on IL and then 3 runs in 3 innings makes this deal their best deal of the winter!
   2. The Yankee Clapper Posted: May 13, 2022 at 02:16 PM (#6076569)
The Reds aren’t good, but they are 5-5 in their last 10 games. A few ‘streaks’ like that and you’re just respectably bad. Their early schedule may be part of the problem, since they are 3-21 against teams over .500, but 5-3 in more limited action against teams under .500. Their 0-13 record against the NL West doesn’t help, either.

The early results had me thinking the Reds were historically awful, but I think we need to give them a bit more time before consigning them to that fate.
   3. Red Menace Posted: May 13, 2022 at 02:20 PM (#6076570)
They currently have a 2 game winning streak (huzzah!) and are starting a three game set with the Pirates today. I maintain that they'll win around 60 games.
   4. salvomania Posted: May 13, 2022 at 02:51 PM (#6076574)
C Tyler Stephenson sure looks good. He's only 25, and he's already put up 1.2 bWAR despite missing two weeks with a concussion.
   5. Dolf Lucky Posted: May 13, 2022 at 03:42 PM (#6076579)
Last week, I hijacked a Tigers thread to talk about the Reds, so let me quid pro quo this mother:

I just looked at the standings and saw that the Reds, for all their well-documented putridness, have just one fewer win than Detroit. WTF is going on in Tigerland? Do they have a horrible fail-son of a Chief Operating Officer, too? Is Detroit committed to "aligning payroll to resources", as is done in the Queen City?

Ye gods, MLB. Having two sub-.300 teams in mid-May is not a great look.

1940: Never forget.
   6. Walt Davis Posted: May 13, 2022 at 06:18 PM (#6076599)
And the Red Sox, Royals, Nats and Cubs are all sub-400 too. Anyway, chances are the Reds and Tigers will pull themselves above the 300 line at least but not a great look for the awesome anti-tanking measures introduced ... or do those not start until next year?

Meanwhile the entire NLW is above 500 and 7 teams are on pace for more than 100 wins. The NL currently has a 3-win (28 run) edge in interleague. It's early yet.
   7. Walt Davis Posted: May 13, 2022 at 06:30 PM (#6076601)
One question for the Reds (and the other terrible teams) is whether any of their short-term vets will actually do well enough to get traded at the deadline, meaning the team likely gets worse in Aug/Sept. The Reds don't seem to have a lot of potential there but a guy like Pham (currently at 110 OPS+) will get traded if he keeps that up. Moose could bounce back although obviously the Reds would have to eat most of the money which means they probably won't get much back. The Tigers have Tucker Barnhart, maybe Robbie Grossman (if he starts hitting), maybe Michael Pineda (big ERA-FIP gap).

And some possibly sad news ... the Akil Baddoo Newsletter has temporarily suspended publication after his terrible start and demotion to the minors. Here at AB HQ we'll keep an eye on things and let you know if the situation changes. Our thanks go out for all of the support from our fabulous subscribers. Alas, no refunds.
   8. vortex of dissipation Posted: May 14, 2022 at 12:56 AM (#6076668)
Reds have now won six of their last eight games.
   9. GregD Posted: May 14, 2022 at 01:37 AM (#6076671)
Last week, I hijacked a Tigers thread to talk about the Reds, so let me quid pro quo this mother:

I just looked at the standings and saw that the Reds, for all their well-documented putridness, have just one fewer win than Detroit. WTF is going on in Tigerland? Do they have a horrible fail-son of a Chief Operating Officer, too? Is Detroit committed to "aligning payroll to resources", as is done in the Queen City?

Ye gods, MLB. Having two sub-.300 teams in mid-May is not a great look.


Haven’t seen the Reds despite growing up a Reds fan

Now live east bay. As are a competently run team exactly on the line of sort of competitive/not actually competitive

Watching the Tigers was startling. Ball after ball thrown into the outfield. Basic errors. The As are not a good team but it felt like anyone would look good against the Tigers.
   10. rr would lock Shaq's a$$ up Posted: May 14, 2022 at 01:41 AM (#6076673)
Reds fan here--have seen about six games. I think they will win 50-55 games. Have not seen the Tigers, and frankly was not aware that things are going so badly for them.
   11. John Northey Posted: May 18, 2022 at 01:31 PM (#6077352)
May 7th to now the Reds are 7-4 - dang it they are screwing up their shot at history, what is wrong with those players? Don't they know that if they lose 121 or more they will be remembered for decades, but if they lose 100-119 no one will care, they'll just be another bad team. Wins vs Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and Milwaukee.
   12. GregD Posted: May 18, 2022 at 04:46 PM (#6077372)
Have not seen the Tigers, and frankly was not aware that things are going so badly for them.
They were in the middle of a 3-16 stretch when the As beat them 4 of 5 in Detroit. But since then they are 4-2 thanks to 3 games against the Orioles.
   13. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: May 18, 2022 at 07:27 PM (#6077392)
Deviation tends to decrease as sample size increases.

I have a handy dataset of every team's record through each 10-game stretch of every season from 1962-2012 (excepting the strike years). Cincinnati's current winning percentage through 36 games is .278. 14 teams had 11 or fewer wins through 40 games in that period (winning percentage of .275 or worse). All of them ended the season with losing records, but their average full-season winning percentage was .369. 9 of the 14 lost 100 games, but only three lost over 2/3 of their games for the season ('69 Expos, '79 Blue Jays, and '03 Tigers; the '88 Orioles came close). On the other side, the '06 Marlins rebounded to 78-84 after starting 11-29 (they were the only team in the group that had a winning record in their remaining games).

The Reds may end up historically bad, but it is way too early to say with any confidence.

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