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Wednesday, July 07, 2021

The Rockies Have Their Worst Coors Field Hangover Yet

Remember that 31-17 record in home contests? Well, on the road, Colorado is just 6-32. That’s on pace for the worst road record in modern history, a staggering 488 (!) points of winning percentage worse than the Rockies’ success rate at home. Naturally, most teams win more at home than on the road, but a gap this large is historic. Pending the inclusion of data from the Negro Leagues, the Rockies are tracking for the most Jekyll-and-Hyde home-road split in winning percentage out of any MLB team since 1901….

A huge differential in home-versus-away record isn’t necessarily a bad thing—provided you can win a ton at home to offset all those losses on the road. But as is clear in the chart above, the culprit for Colorado’s big splits is far more often a poor road record (relative to the average team) than an excellent home record. In the typical Rockies season since 1993, their home winning percentage is just 3 points better than the average team, but their road winning percentage is 68 points worse.

So why does this keep happening to the Rockies again and again? It’s a complex problem to unpack because it cuts to the heart of park effects and other core tools in the sabermetric arsenal. Clearly, Colorado has to deal with a unique situation when it comes to its home park. The thin air of Denver makes it easier to hit the ball farther, which as a general rule helps hitters and hurts pitchers. Making matters even worse for high-altitude hurlers, it also reduces the movement on breaking pitches. But if park factors are properly calibrated, we can theoretically account for this by adjusting the statistics of players when they play games at Coors Field. And in home games this year, the Rockies appear to be a competent team even after correcting for home-field and park effects.

 

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 07, 2021 at 07:06 PM | 2 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: rockies

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   1. Tom Nawrocki Posted: July 08, 2021 at 11:02 AM (#6028249)
The most remarkable thing about this Rockies team is how much better the pitching staff is at Coors than it is on the road. They have a 4.10 ERA at home, and a 5.60 ERA on the road.

There's also a dramatic split between the starters (4.29 ERA overall) and the bullpen (5.48). The starters are working on a string of 14 straight starts where they've allowed three runs or less. Sure, a few of those are just five-inning starts, but if you've followed the Rockies for any length of time, that's pretty remarkable. The starters always keep the team in the game.

Unfortunately, the starting rotation is the only positive element on the whole team.
   2. Ron J Posted: July 08, 2021 at 11:35 AM (#6028250)
#1 Well Brendan Rodgers might be turning into a player. It's something that you can at least be hopeful about.

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