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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Thursday, March 23, 2023The Shift is dead in MLB. But is the ‘two-man outfield’ next? And will it work? [$]The Athletic sub required.
RoyalsRetro (AG#1F)
Posted: March 23, 2023 at 08:19 AM | 5 comment(s)
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1. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: March 23, 2023 at 09:55 AM (#6121139)This is probably just how it is when you're old; I'm finding comfort in baseball looking just a little bit more like it did when I was young.
Anyway, no and no.
Almost no hitters have strong much less extreme pull tendencies on fly balls. Now they surely do have pull tendencies on HRs but there's nothing you can do about that. But finally, the BABIPfb is only about 100 -- how many more outs do you think you can convert anyway? Maybe it's about reducing BABIP on LDs?
If I am using FB's splits tool correctly ... In a full season, Gallo hits about 45 FBs to RF, 45 to LF and 50 to CF. There is a big split in his LDs with about 30 to RF, 15 to CF and just a couple to LF. So a well-placed guy in short RF would produce a fair chunk of extra outs. He's got a career 064 BABIP on FBs so presumably the ones he hits are pretty easy to field but how much ground can 2 guys cover?
As it is even against the shift the (vast?) majority of the time, Gallo has a 671 BABIP on LDs so there's no reason to think that should drop -- if anything, I assume the new rover would be your least speedy OF who surely would make fewer plays than the 2B did. Most of the extra LD hits would be singles while the FBs that fall in would be 2-3-4 baggers (Gallo has good speed). There may be some hitters whose FBs are sufficienly straight LF to straight RF that 2 guys in LCF and RCF would get to almost all of the ones they hit.
I could see trying it out in the spring just to see but ... no and no.
EDIT: There may also be times where a single kills you and it makes sense.
EDIT2: And of course back to the shift ... Gallo has hit 388 GBs in his career. He does have a well below-average BABIP on GBs but even if he did hit league average, he's lost about 20 hits in his career. That would raise his career BA all the way to 208.
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