Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Friday, July 28, 2023
I have way too many things that still need to be accomplished before migrating the server. I’m going to keep plugging and will update when I’m ready to move the site.
UPDATE: Sorry, I have to push back the update until next Monday. Home was far too busy this past week. Things get back to normal tomorrow. Hopefully the extra time will help shorten the outage.
BBTF.org will be offline starting Tuesday, August 8th at 9 AM EDT for a much-needed server migration and backend updates. The ETA to be back online is TBD. I will provide updates on Twitter.
Thanks for your patience.
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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
I love this place. I cain't quit it
I was in on the BBTF HOM founding I think in 2002 (which is all Joe Dimino, really) and our first vote was in 2003.
all I ask is that someone be an administrator who can avoid whatever expirations make the site disappear for a week. alas, it ain't me, babe.
but much respect for Jim for all his efforts over the past two decades. the recent glitches very much pale in comparison.
My fav, especially with the trading deadline looming, has always been "Alfonso Soriano is available..." I chuckled at that about 1000 times over the years.
Problem being McCoy was posting that about 1000 times a week. :-)
Me ... not addicted to the place at all. :-)
Did we need to create accounts at that point, even though we had been posting previously? Did it have something to do with preventing posters from using names of actual people ("Barry Bonds", etc.)?
I started posting here when I was 20. Now I'm 43. Jesus, that's well more than half my life.
And Mike Crudale.
I was living in Irvine, CA, the summer of 2002 on a work assignment and distinctly remember Game Chattering here from my apartment the last week of the job before returning home as the Angels were bouncing the Yankees, so the site was already well established by then. I haven't been back for an extended stay since then, so blame me for the Angels' problems winning with both Trout and Ohtani.
The continued presence of the 2014 Game Chatters on the home page should be an embarrassment.
I don't remember who noted this, but there is a workaround for the submission shortcomings. Basically, submit an article, then comment on the new submission so it gets linked in the sidebar. How? Note the URL format for articles here. For example, this article:
https://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/newsstand/discussion/the_site_will_be_offline_starting_monday_july_31st_at_9_am
So if an article is submitted for a piece titled, "Orioles Headed to First World Since 1983" then following submission go to
https://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/newsstand/discussion/orioles_headed_to_first_world_since_1983
and post a comment so the article shows up in the sidebar.
Should we have to do this? No. Is it a little annoying? Sure. Better than nothing? I think so.
now, did you lose me at "workaround?"
yes. but that's not your fault.
Someone should dedicate time and resources to make my life better. Someone other than me that is.
Someone should not litter a thread with such an utterly stupid comment.
if I knew how to do it, I would.
The basic criticism is valid. The challenge is that with a limited number of volunteers the reliability of the submission approval process is hurt when any one of them has other commitments that interfere with their volunteerism. I know in the past year both Jose and I have had non-BTF stuff take priority for extended periods. The only things (from the user community perspective) that would make it hard to fix are if more people are unwilling to help or if the site admin doesn't trust the people who step up. I imagine there could be other factors behind the scenes that would make it hard to fix that I'm not aware of, but in terms of the "problem" being that volunteers aren't sufficiently volunteering - again from a site perspective is a valid criticism - the solution is for more volunteers from the community with adequate time to make an impact.
It's not my site and it's not my thread, but feel free to reply in this thread with your interest in volunteering. (I'll assume Duke's comment in #1 is such a reply. Keep in mind, I don't have the authority to set anyone up for this.)
"I'm not smart enough to help, and I'm not going to be arsed to learn how to be smart enough to help, but other people are the stupid ones!"
if I knew how to do it, I would.
You're doing great Howie. :-)
I stopped submitting articles here years ago because they never got posted and it seemed like a big waste of time. Would love it if that could be reversed.
I've acknowledged the problems with volunteer time not keeping up with submissions. It is a real problem. But, like, your heaping of bullshit atop that is going to confuse people into thinking the problems are grossly overstated. Let's focus on solutions. Would you be willing to be part of the solution? (EDIT: I'm taking "I certainly would" as a yes for Baldrick. The "you" in the last sentence is meant for the community. Sorry for confusing matters.)
Yes, I did not LITERALLY stop submitting articles years ago. I did submit ONE article almost a year ago, when the tracker had already been up and running for like two weeks and no one had posted a link.
However, back in the day, I submitted many articles that either NEVER got approved or got approved long long after I submitted them. It's extremely frustrating, as others have noted here, and there has been no obvious action about it in the better part of a decade. Despite people consistently offering to help.
If that changes this week, I will be very happy!
I e-mailed Jim directly towards the end of last year and asked if I could be given access to approve messages. He was receptive to the help offer but didn't jump on it and give me the keys or anything. We had a short conversation but that was 9 months ago and I haven't heard from him since. So I've done more than just complain, but I still haven't gotten anywhere.
yeah, i agree. that soccer bullshit has gotta go.
But, I've never had any problems getting something approved, almost all of my submissions have been approved or I was beaten to the punch by someone else. I haven't submitted anything in a while, but I think the longest wait I've had has been a day, and that was because I was late night drunk submitting or something like that.
I don't know what Jim is paying, it depends on the type that they get, average is supposedly around $60 a year. He's using an OV ssl, GoDaddy has that for $169.99 a year (introductory rate of $139.99 with a two year purchase) I do think godaddy is probably a little on the high side though, Name cheap has better prices ranging from $36 to $100 a year depending on other factors. '
He's been doing three month certificates (set your calendar to October 25, 2023 which is when the current certificate expires)
i'm not even sure this is a viable site anymore.
Maybe that problem could be solved by selling automatic submission rights to anyone for a nominal fee, say $8.00 a month.
*This is true, although I've still managed thousands of posts over the years.
As most of you know, the current state of the site is not tenable. Things can't remain as they are. Although I can't excuse my lack of work on the site over the last few years, I hope I can explain where I've been.
My life has changed a lot over the last twenty years. I was a company firefighter when Sean and I created the site. That job came with a lot of free time. A few years in, though, the continued neglect of the city's overworked IT department pushed my Fire Chief to create an IT position for the department. The job requirements, he later told me, were crafted with me in mind. When I read the description of responsibilities I knew I was the only possible person who could do the job. My now ex-wife pushed me to take it. I did.
The schedule and workload were real downsides. After spending all day working on all the computer-related tasks, finding time to update stuff here changed from a labor of love to a real chore. Luckily a bunch of people continued posting links. Although I never prioritized making money on the site, enough ad money and donations kept the site financially viable. I wasn't making money but the site was paying for itself.
On the personal side I FINALLY realized my horrific marriage was not salvageable. Divorce, child support, and making time for my two sons became my focus.
Then I met Sharron, who was/is the great love of my wife. We've been together since 2009 and have been happily married for just about 12 years. As wonderful as that relationship has been for me, it became another impediment to working on the site. My bad marriage pushed me to spend some time on the site, as a distraction; my great marriage pushed me to spend even less time working on the site because of the enjoyment and appreciation I have for every moment I get to spend with my wonderful bride.
Eventually Covid-19 struck and impacted all of our lives. Specific to the site, ad revenue tanked. Due to my inactivity over the previous few years, site donations had already disappeared. All the while costs for the site kept creeping higher. With retirement on the horizon, I decided to dig into my pockets to pay the site's bills until I could get back to work on the site.
When retirement arrived, however, other interests (like golf and my OOTP online league, among other things) sucked up my newly found free time. I also took on more responsibities at home. All the while, though, I kept telling myself that I wouild get back to work on the site "soon". Soon ended up lasting three years.
Soon is no longer an option. Recent site issues have forced me to take a very hard look at either shuttering the site or getting to work.
Also recently, Sharron has suggested I might be spending too much time with the dogs. I have to agree with her. I have gotten a little bored. I have considered getting a new job, either full- or part-time. It would get me out of the house and provide us some extra cash for projects/trips. If I picked up something full-time, I could really generate a lot of extra money; if I went the part-time route, though, I could earn enough money to fund some trips while still allowing me time to improve my golf game, which would make my retired friends and brother happy.
As promising as those options are, at the same time, the idea of letting go of the site does not feel right. It's tough letting go of something that has been such a big part of my life.
After talking over things with my wife, we've decided that I should put a year into the site and then reassess. (My dogs approve of this decision as well.)
Going forward I will log all the time I spend on the site. At the end of the year, if I'm not making at least minimum wage for a part-time job the site will be shut down.
After assessing the online baseball landscape over the last couple of months, I believe the site can still fill a niche. Since I'm turning 60 soon, my timeline is a lot shorter than when I started the site. With hard work, some help, and good decision-making, I believe the site can be thriving by this time next year.
Anyway, migrating the server is the first step. When that's finished, we can discuss my thoughts and plans going forward. If you like my plans and see changes that you like, I hope you consider helping out or contributing some money to sustain the site.
Having said that, I'd be really sad if you chose to shutter the site Jim. But do what's best for you.
I see what you did there.
If it comes to that, which of course I hope doesn't happen, might a change of ownership be feasible?
Here I start thinking, "Oh no! The pics of Jim and Sharron on FB are always so fun."
Then I met Sharron, who was/is the great love of my wife.
CURIOSITY INTENSIFYING!!1!
Seriously though, if any of you Primates want to buy my house in Frisco, TX, (the self-designated "Sports City U.S.A."!!!) I'd have enough cash to pay the new house off and still underwrite the site for a good while. As it stands I won't be ponying up any disposable cash until I'm no longer paying two mortgages but after that I'd be delighted to kick some cash over to what's also been a huge part of my baseball fandom for most of my adult life.... even if it does only work out to a fraction of a penny per enjoyable moment.
I enjoy the site, have spent a lot of time here, have donated to the site and would be sad to see it go.
That said, the site has no real purpose and has not for a long time.
The landscape of baseball research has changed. It's no longer hobbyists talking to each other on message boards. The age of the amateur has passed from being relevant. Instead, baseball research is overwhelming focused on either continuing to improve defensive metrics, which requires significant expertise, or translating observable indicators like launch angles and spin rates into measurable value.
Defensive metrics require real expertise, and amateurs adding notes have not added value to the equation since about 2014 (when Tangotiger and MGL published The Book). Maybe Walt occasionally adds value on the topic, but pretty much the rest of the site has no real value to add and is mostly an echo chamber.
This site has basically never managed to wrap its collective head around the next revolution in baseball analysis: translating observable indicators into value. Indeed, most of the commentary from this site has focused on dismissing spin rates, even as teams increasingly emphasized indicators. This site has no access to that data, and the posters are mainly not good analysts on that kind of data set. Most of this expertise lies with teams, actually.
So what does the site have left in terms of value to add? The comments, while entertaining, tend to be insular. New users don't discover the site easily, and while I think the comments are better than on places like Fangraphs or r/baseball, comments there are much more frequent, and don't require people to navigate antiquated submission flows or terrible login management.
While specific UX issues could be addressed, frankly, past precedent indicates that they will not be. The Copyright notice hasn't been updated since 2021, let alone the constant user certificate issues.
I don't see how there's a path to value for the site, and while I personally benefit from the entertainment value, the only honest conclusion I can reach is that if you only care to continue the site if it can do something more than what it is doing now, you should just shut it down. Your pathway to success is incredibly narrow and, respectfully, requires you to do a lot more work in the next year than you have in the last 20 or so.
I don't understand why Jim would choose to close the site, rather than selling it for a nominal sum to whoever among us is willing to assume the responsibility of paying the bills. Which I'm sure several of us would happily pitch in to do, to keep this comforting old porch open.
(I would also hate to lose the archived threads of yore, incidentally.)
Speaking as a trained historian, this is the most valuable part of the site as things stand. It's an incredible trove of fan commentary on 'current events' in baseball, as they were, and tell us a lot about what more dedicated enthusiasts think is important.
That said, the site has no real purpose and has not for a long time.
The landscape of baseball research has changed. It's no longer hobbyists talking to each other on message boards. The age of the amateur has passed from being relevant.
This isn't wrong, but it works on the assumption that the site was only about doing analytics. The Hall of Merit threads contain a lot of info about baseball history that hasn't got a lot to do with the frontiers of analytics, and the most advanced analytics don't have the data to add knowledge to the case for older Hall of Merit candidaates. BTF also provided a forum for friendly (and sometimes not-so-friendly) debate between baseball fans.
When I knew how to work the keys in the early 2010s, I used to source more blogposts as opposed to 'mediot' piñata posts for discussion, but this never gained any traction. So in that sense, the audience of the site itself turned away from one useful new direction (which history proved to be a dead-end anyway). But that's the kind of thinking we need to do -- where can we point Primates in the direction of material that might interest them, but gets overlooked.
Rather than trying to keep the site 'relevant' with the latest analytics, we should accept that most of us are dinosaurs or underequipped to research in those areas. That was only ever about half of what went on here, though, so we can still build on the other half. The great strength of the Internet is that it can cater to a small audience/special interest relatively inexpensively.
What are the possible niches for the site to fill?
Discussion - Clearly other forums like r/baseball or Fangraphs are significantly more popular. There are 8 people logged in and 249 people lurking as I write this. By comparison, r/baseball has 2.5 million subscribers and 6,680 actively online. That's a 27x difference. I think the comments are overall higher quality here, but not 27x in quality.
Analysis - The amount of analysis on the site has cratered to basically zero. Walt writes here. That's about it, and he prefers to randomly pop in to threads with analysis, not have a disciplined structure. Dominated by Fangraphs and the Athletic.
Research - Hasn't happened in 10 years. No longer exists in the public space in a meaningful way.
Fandom - Really just a RedSox blog. And it's pretty solidly dominated by other fora. The inability to natively post images significantly detracts from a modern fandom platform.
The best, most unique feature of the site is the off-topic threads. There is no path to relevance. It's fine for it to be a comfortable museum for middle aged to older baseball fans to want to reminisce, but it's exceptionally unlikely to be anything but that. If Jim doesn't want the site to be that, he should pass off the costs to someone else who is willing to pay.
Crypto, short-form video, hard-core pornography.
The entire Hall of Merit is on here. Discussions, voting history, analysis of the Negro Leagues. Everything.
This kind of obliquely gets at the fact that not all new research is necessarily required to deal with the most accurate possible evaluation of current players on an ongoing basis. Historical research and evaluation is also a thing, and a lot of that has been and still is done by the HoM crew.
There are tons of analytics -minded people out there who simply don't know it exists and would bring new perspectives. The trick, of course, getting enough people to keep the place moving forward but not too many to overwhelm the place.
HOnestly, that does not seem like such a horrible ratio. You talking Reddit which is a huge phenomenon and this site which is run by one guy on a part time basis. Despite 27x more people online there I still find reason to come here. As Duke points out, the discussion is more focused and you can a better peer reviewed discussion than 300 posters on Reddit yelling about someone's domestic violence issues or whatever video was just posted on Twitter.
Surely there is room for a more focused discussion group about baseball. Its not some crack pot sport like pickleball.
- yeh
you're 3 weeks oldern me but i didn't start posting or coming here until, i think something like dec 2002? i know the twins were definitely sitting up. seems like another lifetime ago
seems the few of us that are left were here from bout near the beginning. it's kind of like a baseball "family" chat only ain't nobody having younguns to keep it going
and jim,
i am not nobody to be throwing stones at somebody having too much time with the Dogz
Most of my comments are on Jose's Sox threads . . . I appreciate a lot of the dialogue that goes on here. I'm only part of two on-line forums as it is.
I don't really have a point, which is maybe the reason I don't post more. but I do appreciate those who keep this site active.
Anyway, I echo those who've said I hope Jim would consider selling before shutting down.
He hasn't made it at all clear why he feels so strongly he has to do that, nor is he going to, I don't think.
Everything ends.
You can have my answer now if you like. My offer is this -- nothing. Not even the fee for the gaming license, which I would appreciate if you would put up personally.
If the larger site does shut down I'd like to know what it would take to archive just the Hall of Merit. We can probably find a new path forward but re-creating the past 20 years would be tedious.
This place is a waste of time that we have been enjoying for more than 20 years, and we know all the regulars. I'll keep coming back until it disappears.
Jim seems to have made it clear enough that he is going to kill the site, rather than pass it on to someone else.
If I were Jim, it would be weird to hand my baby off to someone else to own and take care of.
Less or more weird than killing it?
FWIW, DL - it should be relatively easy to scrape and download the HOM threads and materials. I wouldn't want to go there without an explicit OK from Jim, but for anything publicly available on the internet, it's almost certainly doable unless he's got some kiboshes in place (another reason we'd want the explicit OK would be that the process would be a relative pounding on the db).
As luck would have it, I've been in a workshop this week using google's console, colab, and cloud for a project - and just to get some sample data for use, we scraped all posts from stackoverflow.com with tag "python"... I'm guessing it would be just as easy to content from bbtf with the HOM tag. I'm willing to bet the amount of data and the tools needed would fall well within google's "free" $300 of worth of use... and if not - there are other methods to just download content using tags from a site. We used BigQuery to get our sample set from stackoverflow.
Of course... that would just be getting the data - you'd still need storage, hosting, and a front-end (i.e., the stackoverflow sample set was just a raw dump of the questions and the posts, not a browser-ready page)... but I imagine getting the raw data is pretty easy (and if Jim were onboard, I'm sure he could even just export it even easier).
This site is old enough to drink nowadays.
here's the archived list of every (i think) hall of merit post, going back to 2002, about 1700 threads in total.
a little bit of python/HTML wrangling will get you a map of the url's you'll need to scrape. some more code wrangling will get you a raw dump of all posts/comments within those urls. this will give you an offline backup of the HOM.
after that, you can take as much time as you need to format the information. or you can just keep it as a raw data dump, and leave that part for someone else to worry about.
as far as storage, this amount of text should fit on a floppy disk. it's a negligible amount/cost moving forward.
Always regretted not making it up to any of the softball games.
It's true that we're no longer on the cutting edge of statistical analysis, but, as others have said, so what? We did our work. And the historical stuff is still worthwhile. One thing that I always appreciated about Primer is that the level of discourse here is much higher than on most of the internet (even if you ignore the politics-poisoned parts of the internet).
Its also really hard to find past articles. You can try to google them but sometimes I am left with some sort of error message and other times just nothing shows up. These are threads I know we had and there's no discussion. The threads seem to be arranged in some sort of chronology but then they just disappear beyond a certain date. Thats my experience with the site.
Also if the site could do something special for the playoffs that might be really neat. Being able to discuss stuff in real time with people you know is pretty much the epitome of online discussion. Not sure what but perhaps more interaction, more graphics, I dunno.
I used wget a few weeks ago to pull down all the HOM pages locally. Feel free to send me a BTF mail if you'd like a tarball or whatever.
A) echo how great this site has been for such a long time. My entire adult life, basically, it’s been a near daily visit. Usually multiple times per day.
B) note that I mentally link this site with three others that were also daily visits when I started using the internet frequently: Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, and Baseball Reference. The first two, I stopped using years ago. The value didn’t exceed the cost of the paywalls enacted. It happens. And B-R is now worse than ESPN, with its slow load times, spotty performance, and auto-play videos. Point being, for all the technical issues that BBTF has, it has outlasted all of its competitors from c. 2000, per my own personal value system. So, Mazel Tov, I guess.
Yeah, that’s what I figured but that’s an abominable business model and not one I’m going to support.
I like the subscription tier model, in which I can pay for access for “premium content”. I’m not sure what that would mean for B-R, other than their advanced search service.
The problem with this site specifically is that when it came out it was the cleanest and quickest site I’d ever seen. That memory doesn’t pay the bills…it just means I resent the changes that much more.
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