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Monday, May 30, 2022

The Strange Case Of Jurickson Profar

Despite Profar’s mercurial career, Preller evidently still believed in the former top prospect, which worked out in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. Profar played 56 games in the 60-game season and got his batting line above average again, hitting .278/.343/.438. That amounted to a wRC+ of 112, to which he added seven steals and solid defense in left field (although not as solid elsewhere), accumulating 1.2 fWAR in that short span.

Although that was a small sample, it seemed to reaffirm Preller’s feeling about Profar, as the club re-signed him in free agency that winter. Much like Profar’s career, the deal was a bit unusual, as it was a three-year, $21MM contract that afforded Profar an opt-out after each season. That was quite a nice coup for him, as it gave him the upside of being able to return to free agency if he were to continue on a positive path, but give him some security in the event that he had another setback.

At this point, you can probably guess that his Jekyll-and-Hyde act was not over. In 2021, the first year of that deal, he had yet another down year, hitting .227/.329/.320 for a wRC+ of just 85. At the end of the campaign, he had the ability to opt out of the two years and $14MM remaining on his deal but unsurprisingly decided to stay after that tepid season.

Here in 2022, the Padres have played 47 games, just over 29% of the season. How is Profar doing now? Following the script perfectly, he is good again, hitting .222/.332/.401, with six homers and four steals. His wRC+ is at 114 and he began today’s action with 1.2 fWAR.

There’s still a lot of season left to change the picture here, and it’s obvious that Profar is not immune from quick narrative reversals, but it’s starting to seem as though he could be lining himself up to opt out of the final year of his contract. He will be deciding between a $7.5MM player option for 2023 or a $1MM buyout. (There’s also a $10MM mutual option for 2024 with another $1MM buyout.) If he were to take the buyout, he would only need to find $6.5MM in free agency to break even.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: May 30, 2022 at 03:54 PM | 7 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: jurickson profar

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   1. Walt Davis Posted: May 30, 2022 at 04:43 PM (#6079079)
If we're discussing the ramifications of a Jurickson Profar option in late May, we have run out of stuff to talk about. And on that note, he just struck out.
   2. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: May 30, 2022 at 07:49 PM (#6079102)
A .222 average is "good"? Well, okay, then.
   3. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: May 30, 2022 at 07:56 PM (#6079105)
The .222 isn’t good but the .332/.401 are both above league average and his OPS+ rounds out at 116 which the Padres are certainly going to be happy with.
   4. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: May 30, 2022 at 08:32 PM (#6079112)
I always conflate Profar with Andrus, and I did so again reading the intro. For most of it I was thinking the story was about Andrus.
   5. Walt Davis Posted: May 30, 2022 at 08:41 PM (#6079114)
The Pirates and DBacks(!) have team BAs under 222 (NL avg 242). The Rox (no surprise) lead at 263 (242 on the road ... a 30/13 H/R HR split). The Mets are "impressively" at 261.

The Pirates are under 3.5 R/G but the DBacks have gotten themselves up to almost 4 while the Dodgers (who clearly play in the year 2000) are at 5.6 more than half a run ahead of the Giants. The Brewers are #1 in HR (DBacks 3rd!).

DBacks kinda interesting there -- 3rd in HR, 3rd in BB, 2nd in Ks, 14th in R/G. The team OPS+ of 94 is far from terrible. Their hitting with men on isn't massively worse than with bases empty. They're hitting better on the road ... one-year PF around 91 which is kinda nuts for CBP, methinks maybe the humidor is turned up a bit too high (or is that low?)
   6. Zach Posted: June 01, 2022 at 07:51 PM (#6079433)
I realize he's had a 9 year career, but "Jurickson Profar" just sounds like a prospect name.

One of those guys you get super excited about late in July when he has a 9 for 21 stretch.

   7. GregD Posted: June 01, 2022 at 08:29 PM (#6079441)
I always conflate Profar with Andrus, and I did so again reading the intro. For most of it I was thinking the story was about Andrus.
I get this but having watched them both with the As, I will never do so. Profar is one of my least favorite players ever, Andrus not at the top but solidly an enjoyable player. Part of it is Profar got the yips on simple throws and lost his confidence while Andrus is often buoyant (this season will test him.)

Still they do have lots in common and I was startled that the WAR difference is so large

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