The Strange Case Of Jurickson Profar

Despite Profar’s mercurial career, Preller evidently still believed in the former top prospect, which worked out in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. Profar played 56 games in the 60-game season and got his batting line above average again, hitting .278/.343/.438. That amounted to a wRC+ of 112, to which he added seven steals and solid defense in left field (although not as solid elsewhere), accumulating 1.2 fWAR in that short span.

Although that was a small sample, it seemed to reaffirm Preller’s feeling about Profar, as the club re-signed him in free agency that winter. Much like Profar’s career, the deal was a bit unusual, as it was a three-year, $21MM contract that afforded Profar an opt-out after each season. That was quite a nice coup for him, as it gave him the upside of being able to return to free agency if he were to continue on a positive path, but give him some security in the event that he had another setback.

At this point, you can probably guess that his Jekyll-and-Hyde act was not over. In 2021, the first year of that deal, he had yet another down year, hitting .227/.329/.320 for a wRC+ of just 85. At the end of the campaign, he had the ability to opt out of the two years and $14MM remaining on his deal but unsurprisingly decided to stay after that tepid season.

Here in 2022, the Padres have played 47 games, just over 29% of the season. How is Profar doing now? Following the script perfectly, he is good again, hitting .222/.332/.401, with six homers and four steals. His wRC+ is at 114 and he began today’s action with 1.2 fWAR.

There’s still a lot of season left to change the picture here, and it’s obvious that Profar is not immune from quick narrative reversals, but it’s starting to seem as though he could be lining himself up to opt out of the final year of his contract. He will be deciding between a $7.5MM player option for 2023 or a $1MM buyout. (There’s also a $10MM mutual option for 2024 with another $1MM buyout.) If he were to take the buyout, he would only need to find $6.5MM in free agency to break even.