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Monday, March 06, 2023

The Winners And Losers From MLB’s New Rules

“So we wondered, which teams might do better or worse than their projections thanks to the new rules? That’s why we created MANFRED, or the Metric for Assessing Negative or Favorable Rule-Effect Dynamics. MANFRED takes every team’s 2022 ranking in categories that will be pertinent to the new rules — pitch tempo (which obviously matters for the pitch clock), defensive-shift frequency (since the shift is now outlawed) and sprint speed (since larger bases and restrictions on pickoff throws encourage more base stealing) — and combines them into a weighted composite1 that ranks teams from those most likely to benefit under the new rules to those most likely to suffer.”

gehrig97 Posted: March 06, 2023 at 03:00 PM | 5 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: rules, rules experiments, rules of play

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   1. John Northey Posted: March 06, 2023 at 10:18 PM (#6119756)
I find it interesting that the teams listed as 'hurt' by it are the smarter teams (Houston, LAD, Jays seem hardest hit), and helped are the worst teams (Rockies, Royals, Diamondbacks). Basically, smart teams take advantage of rules, poor teams do not. I'm surprised how little it hurt the Rays on that list as they are the definition of smart team. I suspect we'll see the smart teams adjust nicely to these new rules. As a Jays fan I haven't noticed pitch clock violations in games I've watched, and have read how the pitchers are adjusting their routines to fit the time allowed. The very smart pitchers are really enjoying it like Max Scherzer. Good players and teams adjust, poor ones react.
   2. Russ Posted: March 07, 2023 at 09:21 AM (#6119777)
I'm surprised how little it hurt the Rays on that list as they are the definition of smart team.

To be fair, the rule change is not a surprise. The Rays are not as wealthy as the other orgs; they would have had to have anticipated this change and planned to be in a good position when it took place, as they would not have the resources to adjust on the fly. So, they may be even smarter than smart (which I think we already knew).
   3. The Duke Posted: March 07, 2023 at 12:31 PM (#6119804)
These are fun articles but I suspect the import (or lack thereof) of rules changes can't be known yet. I expected to see an obscene amount of base stealing but in the spring games I have watched it still looks like station to station baseball. The pitch clock changes, designed to speed up the game, seem likely to have bigger issues for pitchers. Their whole routine now feels rushed. It seems easy for a batter to adjust. Just stand there and get ready. The pitcher can't gather his composure anymore. Just my sense of what I am seeing. - does this put a premium on catchers who are excellent game callers ?

I don't know what others think but I've been pleasantly surprised about infield defense alignments goof back to mostly normal. I thought teams would still "shift as much as they can" but my sense is that there isn't as much of that as I thought. Has the required to stay off the OF grass forced defense back to traditional model?
   4. Karl from NY Posted: March 08, 2023 at 11:36 AM (#6119932)
Has the required to stay off the OF grass forced defense back to traditional model?

Not entirely:

The Red Sox shifted against Joey Gallo by moving the CF to short right field and the LF to cover center.
   5. sunday silence (again) Posted: March 08, 2023 at 01:06 PM (#6119943)
I saw the article on the gallo shift. Would it be more efficient to put the rf short and nearer the rf line. And the cf deeper and in the rf power alley?

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