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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Tuesday, June 21, 2022The Yankees Are Keeping Pace With Their 1998 Powerhouse
RoyalsRetro (AG#1F)
Posted: June 21, 2022 at 09:09 AM | 26 comment(s)
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1. ERROR---Jolly Old St. NickBut if they don't win 11 more games in the postseason, they'll be just another version of the 1906 Cubs or the 2001 Mariners. The pressure on them to win it all will be comparable to the 2016 Cubs, though for a different reason.
It seems unlikely that they'll be able to continue that good fortune throughout the entire season - they certainly don't have a great track record in terms of durability. But if they do stay healthy, there's no reason to expect a huge dropoff.
Aaron Judge’s pursuit of 60+ HRs could give this season a major statistical milestone that 1998 lacked. Lots of reasons to keep an eye on this team.
The Indians had routed Andy Pettitte in game 3 of that series, and after O'Neill had homered in the top of the 1st of game 4, the Tribe had 2 on with 2 out, and Jim Thome backed O'Neill up to the RF wall for what the entire crowd (and me) thought was going to be a 3 run homer. I've always wondered how that series would've come out if Thome had only gotten a bit less lift on that warning track shot, but then El Duque threw 7 shutout innings and the Yankees never looked back.
If they go 55-41 (.573) the rest of the way, they would finish 104-58 (.642), their best record since 1998. This is one win ahead of the record that we have them forecast for via our Projected Standings.
If they go 60-36 (.625)
If they go 66-30 (.688)
If they go 68-28 (.708)
If they go 75-21 (.781)
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OK, I'll play.
If they go 48-48 (.500) as above, it would be about one chance in 3 they fail to get a bye, and thus another 1-in-3 or more they fall in the wild card round, and at least 50-50 they fail to advance past the ALDS.
If they go 32-64 the rest of the way, they would finish 81-81 (.500) and the sky would fall.
Which is unlikely, but more likely than they go 75-21. Take that.
The Yankees to date are allowing less than 3 runs per game. The last time their team allowed even fewer than FOUR runs per game was... well, a long time ago. I looked back to 1998, and they have given up >4 r/g the past 24 years in a row. So... yeah, regression cometh.
Let's see, Judge has hit 25 homers in 67 team games, so he's on pace for 60.4 homers. Hitting 60-plus homers, then, would require him to very slightly increase the rate at which he's hit homers this year (which is already the highest HR percentage of his career), while also avoiding injury, which isn't exactly in Judge's skill set. I'm gonna go out on a limb and say he's not going to get there.
And it's made pretty much bugger all difference to his overall production:
2017-19: 279/401/572, 157 OPS+, 6.5% HR, 46 Rbat/650
2020-22: 288/371/573, 160 OPS+, 7.1% HR, 44 Rbat/650
The 30 point drop in OBP isn't good but lgOBP has dropped 12 points and increasing his BA while the league drops 13 points helps a bit too (replacing some walks with hits). Interestingly one thing that has changed is his BABIP from 361 to 324.
In 600 PAs, roughly:
2017-19: 99 BB, 180 K, 140 H, 39 HR
2020-22: 69 BB, 150 K, 154 H, 43 HR
30 BB vs 10 non-HR hits, 4 HR and 16 outs [EDIT: typo'd 19] ... seems like it should probably be more than 2 runs in Rbat but that might be due to context. Or 30 BB and 30 K (000/500/000) replaced by 233/233/467.
How Judge reached another level this season
2022 Yankees 52-18
1998 Yankees 51-19
would that be worse for Yankees fans than 2004?
I don't believe so - but it would be one helluva debate.
The one who set the anti-Yankees trolling standard was Gamingboy, who was over the top and hilarious. Whatever happened to him, anyway?
I thought you were an Orioles fan.
The people who are most butthurt about not living on Park Avenue are always the ones who live on Lex.
Hopefully, someone will recalculate the odds at the All-Star break, a traditional measuring point.
Yes, their 52-18 record is indeed super impressive.
But a few points about their schedule:
- They have played the next-best team in the AL only once. 6 more games against Houston.
- Red Sox: 3 games done, SIXTEEN to go.
- Orioles: 13 games played (9 wins), only SIX left.
- they have played 4 more home games than road games.
All little stuff, but... my best guess is 105 wins.
I thought you were an Orioles fan.
Which child should you love more, your first born or your second born?
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Like the 1998 team, this year’s Yankees were far from a consensus pick to even win their division,
Hell, when the '98 Yankees began their year at 1-4 and were annihilated by the Mariners in that 5th game, there were rumors that Torre's days were numbered. Steinbrenner was still fuming about that blown '97 DS against the Indians.
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Yes, their 52-18 record is indeed super impressive.
But a few points about their schedule:
- They have played the next-best team in the AL only once. 6 more games against Houston.
- Red Sox: 3 games done, SIXTEEN to go.
- Orioles: 13 games played (9 wins), only SIX left.
- they have played 4 more home games than road games.
OTOH their record against >.500 teams is now 23-9 / .719, which is still pretty damn good.
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