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Wednesday, November 10, 2021

Three players who are most likely to accept the $18.4 million, one-year deal

Here is a complete list of the aforementioned 14 players:

1B Brandon Belt, Giants
OF Nick Castellanos, Reds
OF Michael Conforto, Mets
SS Carlos Correa, Astros
1B Freddie Freeman, Braves
RHP Raisel Iglesias, Angels
LHP Robbie Ray, Blue Jays
LHP Eduardo Rodríguez, Red Sox
SS Corey Seager, Dodgers
IF Marcus Semien, Blue Jays
SS Trevor Story, Rockies
RHP Noah Syndergaard, Mets
UT Chris Taylor, Dodgers
RHP Justin Verlander, Astros

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 10, 2021 at 12:29 PM | 14 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: qualifying offers

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   1. Nasty Nate Posted: November 10, 2021 at 12:41 PM (#6052272)
He wasn't one of the 3 in the article, but is there a chance Verlander accepts?
   2. cardsfanboy Posted: November 10, 2021 at 01:08 PM (#6052279)
He wasn't one of the 3 in the article, but is there a chance Verlander accepts?

nevermind, wrong name.. Noah did.
   3. JJ1986 Posted: November 10, 2021 at 01:14 PM (#6052280)
Without reading the article, I would guess Syndergaard, Belt and Iglesias.
   4. cardsfanboy Posted: November 10, 2021 at 01:26 PM (#6052289)
Without reading the article, I would guess Syndergaard, Belt and Iglesias.

Yep, only other potentials among the 14 is Chris Taylor, and Verlander to be honest. I think Taylor almost has to take the offer also (and I think it was a stupid offer to be honest)
   5. Walt Davis Posted: November 10, 2021 at 05:27 PM (#6052382)
Noah for sure. I'm surprised Verlander and the Astros couldn't come to some agreement like "the QO plus incentives." What sort of deal can Verlander really expect as a 39-yo who hasn't pitched in 2 years. Is somebody really gonna rock up with more than one year? Substantially more than $18 guaranteed?

Iglesias should probably decline it. I don't know why closers make as much money as they do but Hendricks got 3/$54 just last year, the White Sox (I sense a theme) picked up Kimbrel's $16 M option anyway. Surely Iglesias can get at least 2/$32 to 3/$45 and might well get a Jansen-esque 5/$80. I assume eventually the market for these guys will collapse and maybe it will be this year but that's the only way he'll regret turning this down. (He's slightly Mo-esque in that his rookie year as a starter, not bad, still pulls down his career ERA+ by 17 points.)

I agree Taylor has to take this. Hernandez got just 2/$14 last year. Maybe Taylor is better but even 2/$24 or 3/$27 are borderline relative to 1/$18 and take your chances ... and is anybody really gonna top 2/$24 or 3/$27? Granted, for whatever reasons, he made about 50% more than Hernandez in their arb years so maybe 2/$24 to 3/$27 aren't out of the queston.

Belt -- I'm agnostic. The article cites his lousy statcast numbers. But it's pretty hard to ignore a 165 OPS+ over his last 600 PA ... and hard to ignore the meh numbers the years before that and his age. I'm too lazy to look him up on statcast but the avg EV and hard-hit numbers at b-r show him to have always bounced around by a couple MPH of EV and about 10 percentage points on hard-hit so it's not clear that he's in decline. He hit a lot more FBs this year so maybe he's added LA to his game ... or maybe that was his last ditch adaptation to a slowing bat and pitchers will adjust next year and that's it. If I were him, I'd rely on my agent but I'll guess that he can get something like 2/$30 out there and, at his age, I think that's better than 1/$18 and hope. Add in things like whether he really likes SF, etc.

(The agent might point out that Rizzo is also out there or, if the Yanks re-sign him, Voit will probably be available. And Freeman (whole other level) and Olson is probably available for trade. And that CJ Cron just had a nice season in Colorado, has very similar numbers over the last 4 years and just re-upped for 2/$14. On the other hand, if the NL adopts the DH, that should help Belt. Hence my agnosticism.)
   6. JJ1986 Posted: November 16, 2021 at 10:37 AM (#6053101)
The Angels are giving away a 2nd rounder for 1-year of Syndergaard.
   7. Nasty Nate Posted: November 17, 2021 at 06:29 PM (#6053354)
Belt accepts.
   8. The Yankee Clapper Posted: November 17, 2021 at 06:45 PM (#6053360)
Verlander just signed a 1 year, $25M deal with the Astros. Seems to be a $25M player option for 2023, too
   9. cardsfanboy Posted: November 17, 2021 at 08:18 PM (#6053372)
Obviously I should never be a GM or an agent, no way if I'm Chris Taylor do I not take the QO, unless I really didn't like the team. I do think that the Angels deal is a good deal for the Angels, Noah and the Mess, so that is fine and all, but it's a bit weird to be honest. And unless the Astros are way away from the cap, do I think the Verlander deal makes sense, agree with Walt, the Astros should have pushed for the qo with incentives type of contract with a vesting players option based upon innings pitched.

I cannot imagine any good organization giving Chris Taylor more than the Qo. Heck, I think it's hard for me to imagine a bad organization giving him more than the QO, and giving up a draft pick to boot. I fully expect him to still be a free agent when spring training comes along.
   10. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: November 18, 2021 at 11:40 AM (#6053423)
Taylor is probably locking in on multiple years rather than AAV. He may view 4/60 as a better deal than 1/18.5.
   11. DCA Posted: November 18, 2021 at 01:55 PM (#6053449)
I'm at least half expecting the Dodgers to sign Taylor to a modest deal (4/60 seems a bit low, but maybe 4/64-72) and pass on all the top dollar shortstops.
   12. cardsfanboy Posted: November 19, 2021 at 09:11 AM (#6053538)
That makes sense about multiple years for Taylor... I just don't really see many teams making a move on him to give up a draft pick. If this is just part of negotiating with the Dodgers, then it does make sense, if he has a good feeling about what the Dodgers will offer him in a multi year deal.
   13. DCA Posted: November 19, 2021 at 10:29 AM (#6053546)
Marginal guys should always take the QO if they like the org they are with (and doing so doesn't preclude signing a longer-term deal; see Jose Abreu). Or they can play out the year at $18m and have a free market next year

And they should always decline it if they want out. Worst case, they sign a cheap one-year deal somewhere and hit the market unrestricted in a year. Just don't do the holdout until midseason to shake loose the pick penalty, I think that ruined Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales.
   14. cardsfanboy Posted: November 19, 2021 at 09:26 PM (#6053643)
Having said what I did, I just saw a tweet in which the Cardinals are now attached to Chris Taylor, and for the life of me, I cannot figure why.

Without the draft pick, I can see giving him 2 years at 30 or 3 at 40 or something like that, but they are talking about a 2 year for 40 type of thing, and I just don't get it, there is not a single position on the team he is an improvement over, and for a super sub, even that isn't worth blocking up and comers like Gorman or not taking full advantage of true free agent stars.

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