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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Thursday, September 28, 2023Three Reasons Why MLB Teams Are Quickening Player Progression Timelines
RoyalsRetro (AG#1F)
Posted: September 28, 2023 at 02:12 PM | 9 comment(s)
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1. Cris E Posted: September 29, 2023 at 12:05 PM (#6142736)(Was no one looking out for these guys? SI young Shortstops )
And the Padres put all their money in aging SS.
C 90
1B 111
2B 98
3B 96
SS 95
LF 105
CF 99
RF 105
DH 106
Those are pretty trivial differences and especially that 2B, 3B and SS are essentially identical. Have teams found better ways to teach defense to good hitters or better hitting to good defenders? Or, in reaction to Ks and (full then partial) shifts, are they less concerned about moving decent bats with "below-average" gloves off of SS? If the last one then maybe we aren't in the golden age of SS, it's more that guy who used to be moved to 3B or 2B are now kept at SS. Are there <23-yo starting 3B, more or less than usual? Or, given some of those younger names are more glove-first, are we seeing a rush of young SS because teams are re-emphasizing defense after several years of full shifts?
SS tOPS+ vs 3B ... it seems the change to a universal DH has had a big effect on tOPS+ calculations ... for 2020 and 2022-23, every position is around 100; for earlier periods, most positions are usually over 100 while P are below 0 and PH (with many more PA) terrible.
2023 95 96
2022 96 105
2021 102 104
2019 103 110
2018 101 110
...
2013 91 106
2008 92 106
2003 91 97
1998 88 104
1993 89 104
1988 88 104
1983 87 108
So something definitely changed between 2013 and 2018 which is the period when the shift started to take off. The gap between SS and 3B used to be substantial but has narrowed to more 8-9 points with a couple of seasons of equity. A detailed look didn't narrow it down ... 2014 and 2017 were 10 point gaps, 2015-16 gaps were much larger.
Anyway, it could be a golden age of SS or a dark age of 3B or, in an absolute sense, teams are less concerned with SS defense and keeping hitters there longer.
Anyway, the gap between SS and 1B is about the same as the gap between SS and 3B used to be. We are also seeing fewer qualified batters which presumably means more multi-position guys (not particularly relevant to starting SS I don't think). It's probably as close to position-less baseball as the game has ever been (maybe in the very early days).
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