Man, that's a lot of money. I think the Giants would win if it went to arbitration.

The alternate headline was "Giants #### pants from terror"

Wow, works 35 days a year, blows smoke the rest of the time, $20 million a year. Not bad.

This makes me sad when I think of what Kershaw might get in arbitration.

Wow, throws smoke 35 days a year, blows smoke the rest of the time, $20 million a year. Not bad.

fyp

#1 Bill James (who used to do a lot of arbitration work) has said that almost all cases are won in the filing.

This is going to be trick for both sides if it does go to arbitration. I'm at a loss for good comps for him. According to James it's all about who are comparable players and what do they make.

Does Lincecum have another arb year after this?
If so that could be one massive arb award.

[6] Finding comps doesn't seem all that hard for Lincecum.

From Cot's:

Starting pitchers
The highest-paid starting pitchers, by average annual value:

1. CC Sabathia, $24,400,000 (2012-16)
2. Cliff Lee, $24,000,000 (2011-15)
3. CC Sabathia, $23,000,000 (2009-15)
4. Johan Santana, $22,916,667 (2008-13)
5. Roy Halladay, $20,000,000 (2011-13)
6. Carlos Zambrano, $18,300,000 (2008-12)
7. Barry Zito, $18,000,000 (2007-13) (as noted above)
8. Jake Peavy, $17,333,333 (2010-12)
9. Jered Weaver, $17,000,000 (2012-16)
10. A.J. Burnett, $16,500,000 (2009-13)
. . . John Lackey, $16,500,000 (2010-14)
12. Justin Verlander, $16,000,000 (2010-14)
13. Jason Schmidt, $15,666,667 (2007-09)
14. Felix Hernandez, $15,600,000 (2010-14)
15. C.J. Wilson, $15,500,000 (2012-16)
16. Mike Hampton, $15,125,000 (2001-08)
17. Derek Lowe, $15,000,000 (2009-12)
18. Roy Oswalt, $14,600,000 (2007-11)
19. Mark Buehrle, $14,000,000 (2008-11)
20. Roy Halladay, $13,333,333 (2008-10)
21. Pedro Martinez, $13,250,000 (2005-08)
22. Ryan Dempster, $13,000,000 (2009-12)
. . . John Danks, $13,000,000 (2012-16)
24. Chris Carpenter, $12,700,000 (2008-11)
25. Bronson Arroyo, $12,500,000 (2009-10)
. . . Pedro Martinez, $12,500,000 (1998-2003)
27. Kevin Millwood, $12,000,000 (2006-10)


http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/?page_id=179

#8 The problem is that both service time and age matter.

Jered Weaver's the only one worth a damn and that's going to be awkward for Lincecum. Sure, I wouldn't be uncomfortable arguing that Lincecum is better (and then there's the whole what's it worth in AAV to have $85 million guaranteed), but that much better than Weaver?

MLB Trade Rumours forecast a $19.2 million arbitration payday for him. It's uncanny how that's at the middle of the range of the two filings!

#9 -- I agree that service time is huge, but in looking over arbitration submissions in the past, I have never seen age discussed by either player or team.

#11 You may be right there.

I think it's a case where everything matters, but service time is just so much more important than age that for practical purposes age is no big deal.

And #10, with Weaver as the only worthwhile comp I think it's pretty clear that both sides filed poor numbers. At which point it's basically a guess as to who will win.

That forecast looks pretty good to me.

Doesn't the Weaver deal include some of his FA years? It seems like a tough sell that Lincecum, as an arb player, should be the 5th-highest-paid pitcher ever, ahead of Halladay's recent deal.

#13 Presumably Lincecum's agent would argue it's a mistake to compare the AAV of a multi-year contract and a one year deal. I know it's a point I'd make.

The arbitration panel shall, except for a Player with five or more years of Major League service, give particular attention, for comparative salary purposes, to the contracts of Players with Major League service not exceeding one annual service group above the Player's annual service group. This shall not limit the ability of a Player or his representative, because of special accomplishment, to argue the equal relevance of salaries of Players without regard to service, and the arbitration panel shall give whatever weight to such argument as is deemed appropriate.

Service time matters less for Lincecum than other players because his agent has an easy argument for the "special accomplishment" clause. The $13MM/$8MM numbers submitted by Lincecum and the Giants when he was a Super-2 seem to acknowledge this.

I'm kind of surprised the Giants haven't locked him up for 4-5 years already. They need to get it done. Give him the sixth year if that's the holdup.

I'm kind of surprised the Giants haven't locked him up for 4-5 years already. They need to get it done. Give him the sixth year if that's the holdup.

You don't think he could get a longer deal on the open market? I think that's the holdup. The time to lock Timmy up was years ago.

Cole Hamels just signed for 15M for his last year of arbitration.

You don't think he could get a longer deal on the open market? I think that's the holdup. The time to lock Timmy up was years ago.

I don't know. Lee and CC got basically 5.5 yrs. on their latest deals. Lee got 5 plus a $12.5M buyout, CC 5 plus a vesting 6th based on health.

You think anyone's going seven for Lincecum?

Yes. Lincecum will be two years younger than Lee was when he hits FA, and he's thinner than Sabathia. Sabathia also got a seven year deal before, he just had an opt-out. Also Linceum is better than either of those two.

I'm kind of surprised the Giants haven't locked him up for 4-5 years already. They need to get it done. Give him the sixth year if that's the holdup.

If any team is hesitant about giving a pitcher a long-term deal it has to be the Giants. They look at Lincecum and see... Barry Zito; apples and oranges perhaps but by some measures the decline phase for Lincecum may have already begun. His K/9 rate has declined every season since 2008 (it is still very good) and his HR/9 rate has gone up by 50% in the same period. Maybe the Giants are wise to hold off on that multi-year contract and see what happens over the next couple of years.

he's thinner than Sabathia

Being heavy as a pitcher is more a sign of longevity and continued effectiveness, than a negative

In fact, I thought that the thing about Lincecum was that his thin frame and his delivery have scared a lot of people into thinking he's an injury risk. That would tend to temper the enthusiasm for a long term deal

Being heavy as a pitcher is more a sign of longevity and continued effectiveness, than a negative

I'm surprised he is not heavier with all the munchies he must have.

I tried to do a rough age/service/quality match for Lincecum- this is a list of recent guys ranked by WAR though age28/6th year, showing how much they made or are scheduled to make the year Lincecum is entering into:

Roy Oswalt 27.1 $11.0
Jered Weaver 26.8 $14.0
Tim Hudson 25.4 $6.5
Brandon Webb 24.4 $6.5
Tim Lincecum 23.2
Jon Lester 21.6 $7.6
Barry Zito 21.2 $7.9
Cole Hamels 20.6 $15.0
Johan Santana 20.2 $13.0
Mark Mulder 19.4 $6.0
John Lackey 18.8 $7.3
Justin Verlander 18.8 $12.9

a bunch of these guys were in long term deals (start/end/middle)... some got a TON of $ a year or two later, and boy did Webb get hosed- that 6.5 was the most he ever saw.

Obviously if he was an FA, Lincecum would get MORE that what he's asking for, OTOH what the Giants are offering is already more than what anyone with similar service time has gotten.

Weaver and Hamels may be recent salary/service time comps, but hasn't Lincecum outshined both of them as a pitcher?

Spanning Multiple Seasons or entire Careers, From 1974 to 2011, From 1st season to 5th season, (requiring At least 60% games started and At least 100 Decisions), sorted by greatest Adjusted ERA+

                                                                                                                                
Rk                Player ERA+ Dec From   To   Age   G  GS CG SHO GF  W  L W-L% SV     IP    H   R  ER  BB   SO  ERA  HR   BF HBP
1           Brandon Webb  144 120 2003 2007 24-28 164 163 12   7  1 65 55 .542  0 1089.0  988 456 390 368  880 3.22  77 4551  37
2             Roy Oswalt  142 122 2001 2005 23-27 155 145  9   4  4 83 39 .680  0  980.2  933 367 334 225  850 3.07  80 4030  35
3          Roger Clemens  141 112 1984 1988 21-25 140 139 50  18  0 78 34 .696  0 1031.1  873 375 349 278  985 3.05  75 4199  24
4           Tim Lincecum  139 110 2007 2011 23-27 156 155  8   5  0 69 41 .627  0 1028.0  842 369 340 379 1127 2.98  66 4248  25
5           Mike Mussina  139 101 1991 1995 22-26 125 125 23  10  0 71 30 .703  0  894.1  802 334 320 205  556 3.22  86 3593   8
6             Tim Hudson  137 113 1999 2003 23-27 156 156 13   6  0 80 33 .708  0 1052.0  940 427 381 338  796 3.26  86 4357  35
7          Dwight Gooden  135 126 1984 1988 19-23 158 158 52  19  0 91 35 .722  0 1172.2  960 381 341 332 1067 2.62  56 4718  16
8           Frank Tanana  132 111 1974 1977 20-23 138 133 71  18  3 64 47 .577  0 1055.2  886 344 314 284  915 2.68  91 4271  36
9             Barry Zito  130 112 2000 2004 22-26 153 153  9   4  0 72 40 .643  0  981.0  832 415 372 372  774 3.41  95 4100  39
10         Teddy Higuera  130 122 1985 1989 26-30 154 152 46  11  2 78 44 .639  0 1085.0  941 431 395 331  857 3.28  96 4451  18
11      Dennis Eckersley  128 127 1975 1979 20-24 171 155 60  13  8 77 50 .606  3 1148.1 1008 431 398 352  855 3.12 119 4760  32
12       John Candelaria  127 108 1975 1979 21-25 146 141 32   7  4 70 38 .648  2  967.1  857 354 316 236  561 2.94  99 3941  14
13            Dave Stieb  126 124 1979 1983 21-25 151 149 65  16  0 65 59 .524  0 1122.0 1013 469 425 360  577 3.41  81 4643  40
14        Orel Hershiser  125 101 1983 1987 24-28 161 124 35  11 17 60 41 .594  4  933.1  806 360 302 284  655 2.91  48 3842  24
15          Mark Buehrle  124 114 2000 2004 21-25 164 139 15   5  6 69 45 .605  0  987.1  986 461 412 240  581 3.76 109 4088  27
16          Jered Weaver  123 103 2006 2010 23-27 144 144  4   2  0 64 39 .621  0  896.0  828 375 353 252  779 3.55 101 3717  15
17           Cole Hamels  123 105 2006 2010 22-26 149 149  7   4  0 60 45 .571  0  945.1  864 396 371 248  897 3.53 122 3885  20
18      

Weaver and Hamels may be recent salary/service time comps, but hasn't Lincecum outshined both of them as a pitcher?

ages 25-27:
Lincecum 44-31, 655 ip, 138 ERA+
Weaver 40-30, 612 ip, 118 ERA+
Verlander 48-35, 665 ip, 115 ERA+
Hamels: 36-31, 618 ip, 120 ERA+
Sabathia: 48-28, 686 ip, 146 ERA+
Lester: 49-26, 603 ip, 132 ERA+
Ubaldo: 44-33, 628 ip, 126 ERA+
Haren: 45-30, 662 ip, 127 ERA+

Being heavy as a pitcher is more a sign of longevity and continued effectiveness, than a negative

I agree, but I don't think teams saw it that way. I think CC's girth hurt him a bit on the open market.

Weaver and Hamels may be recent salary/service time comps, but hasn't Lincecum outshined both of them as a pitcher?

I offered up Hamels current contract earlier as sub-flooring for a Lincecum contract.

After looking at #25 Lincecum looks very similar to Tim Hudson, right down to being a small framed righty. A bit different way of getting to the results but same ages etc.

[28] sub-flooring

Understood.

Hamels at 15 makes the Giants bid for Lincecum at 17 look low IMO.

Also Linceum is better than either of those two.

I don't think that's true.

If you look at the last 4 years, they have essentially the same performance 146 ERA+ for Timmy and Lee, 144 for CC, and Lincecum has the fewest IP: CC 958, Lee 900, Lincecum 882. He's 3rd by WAR.

They're all equivalent.

It's going to be very interesting to see what happens with Hamels, Lincecum, and Cain. Who is going to be laying out the kind of money and years they'll be looking for? The Yankees will presumably try to sign one Hamels or Cain, but if they really want to be at $189 million in 2014, one is all they'll be able to sign, and they won't be in play for Lincecum the following off-season. The Dodgers will have a new owner, so that's probably another one of the three, I suppose. Maybe the Mets will have a new owner by the time Lincecum hits free-agency. Then he can sign with them and spend most of his contract on the disabled list. I don't think I can see any other teams going 7 years for a pitcher.

I don't think that's true.

If you look at the last 4 years, they have essentially the same performance 146 ERA+ for Timmy and Lee, 144 for CC, and Lincecum has the fewest IP: CC 958, Lee 900, Lincecum 882. He's 3rd by WAR.

They're all equivalent.

If you're looking at the last 4 years, you're including Lee's good 2011 season, which was after he signed his contract, and excluding his shitty 2007 6.29 ERA.

Sabathia's last four years are arguably as good as Lincecum's, although the four years prior to his seven year deal are a bit more mediocre.