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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Tuesday, January 17, 2012Tim Lincecum asks $21.5M in arbitrationThat’s still just barely more than what Barry Zito will make.
RoyalsRetro (AG#1F)
Posted: January 17, 2012 at 07:09 PM | 33 comment(s)
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1. Jacob Posted: January 17, 2012 at 09:27 PM (#4039019)fyp
This is going to be trick for both sides if it does go to arbitration. I'm at a loss for good comps for him. According to James it's all about who are comparable players and what do they make.
If so that could be one massive arb award.
From Cot's:
Starting pitchers
The highest-paid starting pitchers, by average annual value:
1. CC Sabathia, $24,400,000 (2012-16)
2. Cliff Lee, $24,000,000 (2011-15)
3. CC Sabathia, $23,000,000 (2009-15)
4. Johan Santana, $22,916,667 (2008-13)
5. Roy Halladay, $20,000,000 (2011-13)
6. Carlos Zambrano, $18,300,000 (2008-12)
7. Barry Zito, $18,000,000 (2007-13) (as noted above)
8. Jake Peavy, $17,333,333 (2010-12)
9. Jered Weaver, $17,000,000 (2012-16)
10. A.J. Burnett, $16,500,000 (2009-13)
. . . John Lackey, $16,500,000 (2010-14)
12. Justin Verlander, $16,000,000 (2010-14)
13. Jason Schmidt, $15,666,667 (2007-09)
14. Felix Hernandez, $15,600,000 (2010-14)
15. C.J. Wilson, $15,500,000 (2012-16)
16. Mike Hampton, $15,125,000 (2001-08)
17. Derek Lowe, $15,000,000 (2009-12)
18. Roy Oswalt, $14,600,000 (2007-11)
19. Mark Buehrle, $14,000,000 (2008-11)
20. Roy Halladay, $13,333,333 (2008-10)
21. Pedro Martinez, $13,250,000 (2005-08)
22. Ryan Dempster, $13,000,000 (2009-12)
. . . John Danks, $13,000,000 (2012-16)
24. Chris Carpenter, $12,700,000 (2008-11)
25. Bronson Arroyo, $12,500,000 (2009-10)
. . . Pedro Martinez, $12,500,000 (1998-2003)
27. Kevin Millwood, $12,000,000 (2006-10)
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/?page_id=179
Jered Weaver's the only one worth a damn and that's going to be awkward for Lincecum. Sure, I wouldn't be uncomfortable arguing that Lincecum is better (and then there's the whole what's it worth in AAV to have $85 million guaranteed), but that much better than Weaver?
I think it's a case where everything matters, but service time is just so much more important than age that for practical purposes age is no big deal.
And #10, with Weaver as the only worthwhile comp I think it's pretty clear that both sides filed poor numbers. At which point it's basically a guess as to who will win.
That forecast looks pretty good to me.
Service time matters less for Lincecum than other players because his agent has an easy argument for the "special accomplishment" clause. The $13MM/$8MM numbers submitted by Lincecum and the Giants when he was a Super-2 seem to acknowledge this.
You don't think he could get a longer deal on the open market? I think that's the holdup. The time to lock Timmy up was years ago.
You don't think he could get a longer deal on the open market? I think that's the holdup. The time to lock Timmy up was years ago.
I don't know. Lee and CC got basically 5.5 yrs. on their latest deals. Lee got 5 plus a $12.5M buyout, CC 5 plus a vesting 6th based on health.
You think anyone's going seven for Lincecum?
If any team is hesitant about giving a pitcher a long-term deal it has to be the Giants. They look at Lincecum and see... Barry Zito; apples and oranges perhaps but by some measures the decline phase for Lincecum may have already begun. His K/9 rate has declined every season since 2008 (it is still very good) and his HR/9 rate has gone up by 50% in the same period. Maybe the Giants are wise to hold off on that multi-year contract and see what happens over the next couple of years.
Being heavy as a pitcher is more a sign of longevity and continued effectiveness, than a negative
In fact, I thought that the thing about Lincecum was that his thin frame and his delivery have scared a lot of people into thinking he's an injury risk. That would tend to temper the enthusiasm for a long term deal
I'm surprised he is not heavier with all the munchies he must have.
Roy Oswalt 27.1 $11.0
Jered Weaver 26.8 $14.0
Tim Hudson 25.4 $6.5
Brandon Webb 24.4 $6.5
Tim Lincecum 23.2
Jon Lester 21.6 $7.6
Barry Zito 21.2 $7.9
Cole Hamels 20.6 $15.0
Johan Santana 20.2 $13.0
Mark Mulder 19.4 $6.0
John Lackey 18.8 $7.3
Justin Verlander 18.8 $12.9
a bunch of these guys were in long term deals (start/end/middle)... some got a TON of $ a year or two later, and boy did Webb get hosed- that 6.5 was the most he ever saw.
Obviously if he was an FA, Lincecum would get MORE that what he's asking for, OTOH what the Giants are offering is already more than what anyone with similar service time has gotten.
Spanning Multiple Seasons or entire Careers, From 1974 to 2011, From 1st season to 5th season, (requiring At least 60% games started and At least 100 Decisions), sorted by greatest Adjusted ERA+
ages 25-27:
Lincecum 44-31, 655 ip, 138 ERA+
Weaver 40-30, 612 ip, 118 ERA+
Verlander 48-35, 665 ip, 115 ERA+
Hamels: 36-31, 618 ip, 120 ERA+
Sabathia: 48-28, 686 ip, 146 ERA+
Lester: 49-26, 603 ip, 132 ERA+
Ubaldo: 44-33, 628 ip, 126 ERA+
Haren: 45-30, 662 ip, 127 ERA+
I agree, but I don't think teams saw it that way. I think CC's girth hurt him a bit on the open market.
I offered up Hamels current contract earlier as sub-flooring for a Lincecum contract.
Understood.
Hamels at 15 makes the Giants bid for Lincecum at 17 look low IMO.
I don't think that's true.
If you look at the last 4 years, they have essentially the same performance 146 ERA+ for Timmy and Lee, 144 for CC, and Lincecum has the fewest IP: CC 958, Lee 900, Lincecum 882. He's 3rd by WAR.
They're all equivalent.
If you're looking at the last 4 years, you're including Lee's good 2011 season, which was after he signed his contract, and excluding his shitty 2007 6.29 ERA.
Sabathia's last four years are arguably as good as Lincecum's, although the four years prior to his seven year deal are a bit more mediocre.
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