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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Friday, February 26, 2010Tomase: Kevin Youkilis has no love for glove ratingsHey, MLB Network…get another chair ready!
Repoz
Posted: February 26, 2010 at 05:18 AM | 46 comment(s)
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1. You can keep your massive haul Posted: February 26, 2010 at 05:54 AM (#3468641)Yep, probably...
Well, let's see. He was much faster than either Ruth or Williams, and got on base as much as Rickey! or Billy Hamilton with enough more leadoff power to more than offset the stolen bases. Yep. That's the best. - Brock Hanke
He wasn't unbearably slow either. Still a good percentage base stealer who stole in double figures up through the age of 36. The last couple of years when he was slow, well hell, he was 40/41 years old.
Rickey Henderson hit 28 home runs in 1990, every one of them hitting first in the order. Nonsensed his way right into an MVP award.
Sorry!
Yeah i didn't mean to say he has a correct point but it's merely the same reason and thought process that i came across for Bonds moving out of the leadoff spot.
Reinforce was probably the wrong word.
Its a point that someone may disagree with. But if your first instinct is to deride someone's point with snark, that says more about your ability to make points than theirs. Especially when the snark isn't funny.
Exactly. Grady Sizemore put up 91 XBH (including 28 homers) as a leadoff hitter in 2006.
Ok, so tell the batter not to change his "mindset". Problem solved.
Bases empty: .253/.350/.423 (1496 PA)
Men on: .338/.436/.563 (1361 PA)
You don't even have to go to the mindset argument. Pitching is situational too. Barry Bonds was intentionally walked 120 times in 617 PA 2004. Only three of those came when leading off an inning (in 144 PA). So if you had doubled the number of times he led off an inning by batting him first, there's a pretty decent chunk of OBP that clearly wouldn't have translated.
IOW, I don't think too many people are necessarily arguing that Youkilis should be a leadoff hitter. We're just disagreeing with his basis for scoffing at the idea. Or to put it yet another way, isn't this:
if your first instinct is to deride someone's point with snark
exactly what Youkilis did in response to the question?
That seems like a pretty crazy split. How different is that from the norm; I mean, I assume all players have better stats with runners on, but I wouldn't guess it would be quite so disparate.
Edit: and he's probably thinking that, too: some computer figured out that I should hit ahead of Dustin Pedroia?
82 point BABIP difference and 30 more walks in 135 fewer PA, FWIW. MLB as a whole hit .259/.323/.417 with the bases empty and .267/.345/.418 with runners on in 2009.
Sac flies all occur with runners on base, and don't count against BA and SLG. Adjusting for that makes it .262/.345/.411 with runners on. If you remove intentional walks, it's .262/.335/.411, which is a bigger OBP difference than I expected to have left...
There were four intentional walks issued with the bases empty last year. Anyone want to bother finding out who drew them?
Josh Whitesell, Arizona Diamondbacks
Chipper Jones, Atlanta Braves
Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego Padres
Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals
I'd bet that he was batting in front of the pitcher, and there were two outs.
Top of the 17th inning, and the Diamondbacks were on their 8th pitcher of the game. The pitcher (Rosales) made an out to end the inning.
In that case, wouldn't the free first out in the next inning be far more valuable than eliminating the risk that Josh Whitesell homers? Any other results still has the pitcher batting with two outs.
In this specific case, the D-Backs were on the road, and it was extra innings. Clearly the Padres were hoping that there wouldn't be a next inning.
For purposes of comparison you should treat sac flies as an 0-1 and drop IBBs. There's no reliable way to hit a sac fly without runners on and almost all IBBs happen with runners on.
There's also the issue of selection bias. Non-hitters are more likely to be hit for in high leverage situations.
EDIT: As for the 1B hole, there are two factors at play. Batters do hit a fair amount better when a runner on first has to be held and there's no stolen bases attempted. And they hit worse when one is attempted. It seems to largely balance out.
That was more XBH than Belle had in 1996. Belle had 148 RBI; Sizemore had 76.
I think you're right, though, in that it was a bad strategy to use. In this case, the Padres didn't score in the 17th, and it went to the 18th. The Diamondbacks ended up scoring 3 runs in the top of the 18th (all with two outs) and won the game. The IBB is one of the more overused strategies in the game, particularly in the National League.
Wow--3 intentional walks leading off an inning?
I didn't look 'em up, but I'd guess they were all in the ninth inning or later. If I'm tied or up one with him leading off an extra inning, I'm sure as hell not pitching to him. And it still counts as an IBB if you try to get him to chase the first three.
So your point is that Belle's 410 OBP should have been in the leadoff spot? :-)
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